Category Archives: ENSO

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

There may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly … Continue reading

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 70 Comments

Lewandowsky and Oreskes Are Co-Authors of a Paper about ENSO, Climate Models and Sea Surface Temperature Trends (Go Figure!)

UPDATE 2: Animation 1 from this post is happily displaying the differences between the “Best” models and observations in the first comment at a well-known alarmist blog. Please see update 2 at the end of this post. # # # … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Stephan Lewandowsky | 381 Comments

Quote of the Week – NOAA: ‘However, we think it’s likely that the atmosphere will get on board soon’

As a follow up to Bob Tisdale’s excellent post today, I just had to post this one from NOAA where they are so confident that the El Niño will happen, they expect the atmosphere to “get on board” with their … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 85 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 13 – More Mixed Signals

A few interesting things have happened since the July Update last week. On the ocean side, weekly sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region have dropped (just) below the threshold of El Niño conditions (using the standard NOAA base years … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 33 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the beginning of July 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May and June updates.  The post includes … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 55 Comments

The 2014 El Niño is looking more and more like a bust

Peru says El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 138 Comments

From IRI – Eight Misconceptions About El Niño (and La Niña)

Yesterday, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) published a post about a number of mistaken beliefs about El Niño and La Niña events. Misconceptions discussed:

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 19 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 11 – Is the El Niño Dying?

There’s still a possibility the 2014/15 El Niño could die even though it had so much promise just a few months ago.  In this post, we’ll compare a few indicators now to where they were 2 months ago at the … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 76 Comments

The predicted 2014 El Niño is expected to benefit U.S. agriculture

Maybe this will temper the usual expected claims that this El Niño is all about global warming, because we can’t have global warming be beneficial, right? MANHATTAN — A Kansas State University senior agricultural economist says there’s a 70 percent … Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, ENSO | 32 Comments

350.org can’t connect consecutive years, much less ‘connect the dots’

You just have to laugh. In their zeal to make the current drought situation all about their irrational CO2 fears, Bill McKibben’s 350.org tweeted this ridiculous comparison of before and after at California’s Folsom Reservoir, near me. Only problem is, … Continue reading

Posted in 350.org connect the dots, Drought, ENSO, Ridiculae, Weather | Tagged , | 59 Comments

NOAA reaches out to the blogosphere

UPDATE: NOAA has corrected the typos in the illustrations at the new reanalysis intercomparison website. # # # # # NOAA opened two new blogs recently…and a new reanalysis intercomparison website, with a plethora of ENSO-related illustrations.

Posted in ENSO, hurricanes, NOAA | 22 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 10 – June 2014 Update – Still Waiting for the Feedbacks

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the end of May 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May update. The post includes 5 gif … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, feedbacks | 65 Comments

SkepticalScience Needs to Update their Escalator

The SkepticalScience animation The Escalator has been around for a couple of years, and it has appeared in dozens of their posts and in blog posts by other carbon dioxide-obsessed alarmists. Their intent with The Escalator animation was to show … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 94 Comments

New WUWT ENSO Forecast Page, Underwater Upgrades to the WUWT ENSO Page and a Disturbance in the Equatorial Atlantic

Guest Post by Just The Facts Introducing the new WUWT ENSO Forecast Page with an array of low skill forecasts… There are also several upgrades to the WUWT ENSO page, including new Sea Temperature Anomalies at depths. Lastly, WUWT reader … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Reference Pages, Volcanoes | Tagged , | 58 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 9 – Kevin Trenberth is Looking Forward to Another “Big Jump”

In a recent interview, Kevin Trenberth, Distinguished Senior Scientist, from NCAR said the upcoming 2014/15 El Niño might shift global surface temperatures upwards by 0.2 to 0.3 deg C to further the series of upward steps. Curiously, Trenberth is continuing … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 121 Comments

New excuse for ‘the pause’ – the wrong type of El Niños

I got this press release today Geophysical Research Letters: Different types of El Nino have different effects on global temperature The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to influence global surface temperatures, with El Niño conditions leading to warmer temperatures and … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming | 58 Comments

El Niño Watch issued by NOAA

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society,  8 May 2014 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Oceans, Weather | 58 Comments

‘Houston, we have a dumbass problem’

I’m truly sorry about the title, but nothing else really describes the ridiculousness of the pronouncement by the White House aide John Podesta over these two satellite images in a maddeningly idiotic story from the Washington Post. In a Feb. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, El Nino Basics, ENSO, Government idiocy, Politics, snowfall | Tagged , , , , , | 188 Comments

Subaqueous volcanism: ocean vents and faulty climate models

WUWT reader Pethefin writes: Finally someone addresses the really big elephant in the room: the ocean vents and their role in climate modelling: I covered this possibility in a previous post:  Do underwater volcanoes have an effect on ENSO? and I … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Ocean Heat Content, Oceans, Volcanoes | 117 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 5 – The Relationship Between the PDO and ENSO

UPDATE: I’ve added NOAA’s description of the PDO index toward the end of the post, before the closing. # # # During the earlier discussions of the upcoming El Niño event, the topic of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, PDO | 78 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 4 – Early Evolution – Comparison with Other Satellite-Era El Niños

In the preceding post, we looked at the evolution of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in two regions of the equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 and NINO1+2), comparing the data so far in 2014 to those of the strong 1982/83 and … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 43 Comments

2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events

Comparisons are still being made of the 1997/98 El Niño with the El Niño forming this year. So I thought we should compare the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for this year, in two NINO regions, with those during 1997 … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 61 Comments

Your chance to predict future El Niño headlines

Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying: I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting, Fun_stuff | 209 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 2 – The Alarmist Misinformation (BS) Begins

I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible. Even the title Monster El Nino Emerging … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 76 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 1 – The Initial Processes of the El Niño

The title of the post, of course, assumes that an El Niño event will form this year and carry over into the next. This post is intended for persons new to the topic of El Niño events—and for those who … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 34 Comments

El Niño Residuals Cause the C-Shaped Warming Pattern in the Pacific

In the recent model-data comparison of satellite-era sea surface temperature anomalies—appropriately titled Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans—we compared trend maps of modeled and observed sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2013. See Figure 1. … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Oceans, Sea Surface Temperature | 88 Comments

Elements of the 1997 Super El Niño seem to be repeating now in the Western Pacific

Could we be in for a Super El Niño this year like the one in 1997/98? Dr. Ryan Maue is seeing hints of a beginning in ocean heat content satellite visualizations.  

Posted in ENSO, Ocean Heat Content, Oceans | 124 Comments

Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans

UPDATE (April 6, 2014): I’ve added a link to a follow-up post about the cause of the observed C-shaped warming pattern in the Pacific. # # # The climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive are supposed to be simulations … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate FAIL, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 36 Comments

With ENSO, chaos rules, models drool

A new paper in Nature from the Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, makes a somewhat surprising claim about predicting ENSO events. This is probably one of the shortest abstracts ever, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 59 Comments

March ENSO Update – outlook suggests a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season

Just about all indicators are pointing to a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season. See the NOAA weekly ENSO update dated March 24, 2014. The subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific associated with the downwelling (warm) … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 63 Comments

New Statistical Models Could Lead to Better Predictions of Ocean Patterns and the Impacts on Weather, Climate and Ecosystems

From the University of Missouri, note the operative word “could”. COLUMBIA, Mo. – The world’s oceans cover more than 72 percent of the earth’s surface, impact a major part of the carbon cycle, and contribute to variability in global climate … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 125 Comments

On Chylek et al (2014) – The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a Dominant Factor of Oceanic Influence on Climate

I was advised of a recent paper that studies the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on global surface temperatures since 1900. (Thanks, Anthony.) The paper is Chylek et al. (2014) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate News, ENSO | 58 Comments

An Odd Mix of Reality and Misinformation from the Climate Science Community on England et al. (2014)

In this post, we’ll discuss a recent article and blog post about the recently published England et al. (2014). This post includes portions of past posts and a number of new discussions and illustrations. We’ve already discussed (post here) the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Sea Surface Temperature | 48 Comments

The Power Stroke

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the well-known correlation of El Ninos and global temperature. I knew that the Pacific temperatures lead the global temperatures, and the tropics lead the Pacific, but I’d never looked at … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , | 145 Comments

El Niño and La Niña Basics: Introduction to the Pacific Trade Winds

[UPDATE: I corrected the dates in the title blocks of Figures 10 and 11. My thanks to blogger Bob.moe for finding the typos.] England et al. (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 55 Comments