Category Archives: ENSO

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 4 – Early Evolution – Comparison with Other Satellite-Era El Niños

In the preceding post, we looked at the evolution of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in two regions of the equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 and NINO1+2), comparing the data so far in 2014 to those of the strong 1982/83 and … Continue reading

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 41 Comments

2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events

Comparisons are still being made of the 1997/98 El Niño with the El Niño forming this year. So I thought we should compare the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for this year, in two NINO regions, with those during 1997 … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 61 Comments

Your chance to predict future El Niño headlines

Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying: I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting, Fun_stuff | 209 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 2 – The Alarmist Misinformation (BS) Begins

I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible. Even the title Monster El Nino Emerging … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 76 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 1 – The Initial Processes of the El Niño

The title of the post, of course, assumes that an El Niño event will form this year and carry over into the next. This post is intended for persons new to the topic of El Niño events—and for those who … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 34 Comments

El Niño Residuals Cause the C-Shaped Warming Pattern in the Pacific

In the recent model-data comparison of satellite-era sea surface temperature anomalies—appropriately titled Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans—we compared trend maps of modeled and observed sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2013. See Figure 1. … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Oceans, Sea Surface Temperature | 88 Comments

Elements of the 1997 Super El Niño seem to be repeating now in the Western Pacific

Could we be in for a Super El Niño this year like the one in 1997/98? Dr. Ryan Maue is seeing hints of a beginning in ocean heat content satellite visualizations.  

Posted in ENSO, Ocean Heat Content, Oceans | 124 Comments

Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans

UPDATE (April 6, 2014): I’ve added a link to a follow-up post about the cause of the observed C-shaped warming pattern in the Pacific. # # # The climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive are supposed to be simulations … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate FAIL, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 36 Comments

With ENSO, chaos rules, models drool

A new paper in Nature from the Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, makes a somewhat surprising claim about predicting ENSO events. This is probably one of the shortest abstracts ever, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 59 Comments

March ENSO Update – outlook suggests a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season

Just about all indicators are pointing to a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season. See the NOAA weekly ENSO update dated March 24, 2014. The subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific associated with the downwelling (warm) … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 63 Comments

New Statistical Models Could Lead to Better Predictions of Ocean Patterns and the Impacts on Weather, Climate and Ecosystems

From the University of Missouri, note the operative word “could”. COLUMBIA, Mo. – The world’s oceans cover more than 72 percent of the earth’s surface, impact a major part of the carbon cycle, and contribute to variability in global climate … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 125 Comments

On Chylek et al (2014) – The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a Dominant Factor of Oceanic Influence on Climate

I was advised of a recent paper that studies the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on global surface temperatures since 1900. (Thanks, Anthony.) The paper is Chylek et al. (2014) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate News, ENSO | 58 Comments

An Odd Mix of Reality and Misinformation from the Climate Science Community on England et al. (2014)

In this post, we’ll discuss a recent article and blog post about the recently published England et al. (2014). This post includes portions of past posts and a number of new discussions and illustrations. We’ve already discussed (post here) the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Sea Surface Temperature | 48 Comments

The Power Stroke

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the well-known correlation of El Ninos and global temperature. I knew that the Pacific temperatures lead the global temperatures, and the tropics lead the Pacific, but I’d never looked at … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , | 145 Comments

El Niño and La Niña Basics: Introduction to the Pacific Trade Winds

[UPDATE: I corrected the dates in the title blocks of Figures 10 and 11. My thanks to blogger Bob.moe for finding the typos.] England et al. (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 55 Comments

What is El Niño Taimasa?

From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST, something I’ve never heard of before. Note the photo. During very strong El Niño events, sea level drops abruptly in the tropical western Pacific and tides remain below normal for up to a … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 41 Comments

El Niño or La Nada for the 2014/15 ENSO Season

El Niño and La Niña events are the dominant modes of natural climate variability on Earth, which is why the state of the tropical Pacific is continuously monitored. El Niños and La Niñas impact weather patterns globally. As a number … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 241 Comments

Open Letter to Kevin Trenberth – NCAR

Date: January 31, 2014 Subject: Your Blog Post at SkepticalScience and an Invitation from WattsUpWithThat From: Bob Tisdale To: Kevin Trenberth – NCAR Dear Kevin: I note that you were co-author of the SkepticalScience blog post Warming oceans consistent with … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, Trenberth's missing heats | 152 Comments