Back to the future in El Niño forecasting

From the Georgia Institute of Technology: Looking at El Niño’s past to predict its future The El Niño Southern Oscillation is Earth’s main source of year-to-year climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain. Scientists see a large amount of variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when looking back at climate…

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BOM ENSO Tracker

Quicky Mid-November 2014 ENSO Update

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale AUSTRALIA’S BOM UPGRADES ENSO TRACKER STATUS TO EL NIÑO ALERT On November 18, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) upgraded the conditions in the tropical Pacific from El Niño “watch” to “alert” levels, “indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring”.  See the rest of their update here. NOAA’S WEEKLY…

Pools of warm water known as Kelvin waves can be seen traveling eastward along the equator (black line) in this Sept. 17, 2009, image from the NASA/French Space Agency Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 satellite. El Ninos form when trade winds in the equatorial western Pacific relax over a period of months, sending Kelvin waves eastward across the Pacific like a conveyor belt. Image credit: NASA/JPL Ocean Surface Topography Team

El Niño fades without westerly wind bursts

From AGU: The warm and wet winter of 1997 brought California floods, Florida tornadoes, and an ice storm in the American northeast, prompting climatologists to dub it the El Niño of the century. Earlier this year, climate scientists thought the coming winter might bring similar extremes, as equatorial Pacific Ocean conditions resembled those seen in…