Claim: global warming will make El Niño and La Niña event impacts worse

From the “tail wagging the dog and AGW affects everything, it’s omnipotent “department, they seem to forget that El Niño induced temperature events are significantly larger than the posited AGW signal itself. This suggests to me that the effects the claim will be hard to separate from that natural ENSO cycle. And what of “the pause”? But, as usual, it’s models all the way down being used to claim the future is worse, whether it’s warmer or colder at the hands of Nature.
Just read the last paragraph of the AGU press release, and you’ll realize just how uncertain their claims are.



 

Impacts of El Niño to intensify as climate warms, new study finds

Changes to precipitation, temperature, and wildfire risk intensify

WASHINGTON — When an El Niño or its opposite, La Niña, forms in the future, it’s likely to cause more intense impacts over many land regions — amplifying changes to temperature, precipitation, and wildfire risk — due to the warming climate.

These are the findings of a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

The researchers found, for example, that the increased wildfire danger in the southwestern United States associated with La Niña events would become more acute. Conversely, the cooler and wetter weather in the same region associated with El Niño events would likely become even cooler and even wetter in the future, enhancing associated flood risks.

“The cycling between El Niño and La Niña is responsible for some of the weather whiplash we get from year to year, particularly in the western U.S.,” said NCAR scientist John Fasullo, who led the study. “What we find when we look at model simulations of the future is that the whiplash is likely to get more severe.”

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor, and by the U.S. Department of Energy. Study coauthors are Bette Otto-Bliesner, also of NCAR, and Samantha Stevenson, of the University of California, Santa Barbara.

El Niño events are characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña’s, on the other hand, are defined by cooler-than-average waters in the same region. These phenomena can influence weather patterns globally, with far-reaching consequences, including changes to crop yields, fire risk, and the heating and cooling demands of homes, workplaces, and other buildings.

The impacts of El Niño and La Niña are particularly pronounced over North America’s southern tier, South America, and Australia. For example, El Niño events tend to cause cooler, wetter weather over the southern U.S. but hotter, drier weather across most of Australia and South America.

Climate model simulations have been divided in their portrayal of how climate change will influence the sea surface temperature changes associated with El Niño and La Niña events. For this study, the scientists were able to remove this effect and look at what the impact of individual events of a given magnitude would be.

The research team relied on two extensive sets of simulations, one created using the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model (CESM) and one created using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model. Each model was run dozens of times with slightly different starting conditions. Taken together, the large number of model simulations allowed the scientists to distinguish impacts linked to El Niño and La Niña from those caused by the natural chaos in the climate system.

The scientists looked at how the impacts in the present climate that are tied to a given unit of variability, for example, one degree Celsius of sea surface temperature increase during El Niño or decrease during La Niña, compared to the impacts of that same variation at the end of this century.

In addition to temperature and precipitation, the scientists were able to look at changes to wildfire danger, because CESM includes a wildfire model. This component takes into account the biomass available for burning, along with the influences of temperature and moisture.

The result was that these impacts became more severe in key land regions.

“These simulations show that the continuous rising of global mean temperature will leave regions of the U.S., including California, more vulnerable to severe droughts and widespread wildfires in the future, especially during La Nina years,” said Ming Cai, a program officer in the National Science Foundation’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research.

For example, seasonal heat extremes in the southern half of the U.S. during a La Niña like the one that occurred in 2011 would be about 30 percent greater if the La Niña occurred at the end of the century. That warming would be in addition to the expected background warming of the climate system.

“We can’t say from this study whether more or fewer El Niños will form in the future — or whether the El Niños that do form will be stronger or weaker,” Fasullo said. “But we can say that an El Niño that forms in the future is likely to have more influence over our weather than if the same El Niño formed today.”

###

This paper is freely available for 30 days. You can download a PDF copy of the article by clicking on this link:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018GL079022

Advertisements

47 thoughts on “Claim: global warming will make El Niño and La Niña event impacts worse

  1. It is all getting a bit hysterical and if I may say – desperate.
    “What if” manipulation of manipulated data is not my idea of science.

  2. So the adverse aspects of El Nino and La Nina will be worse. But of course, the beneficial aspects (such as periods of increased rainfall) won’t be better. It just gotta be all bad.
    Doom! doom! and more doom. Dooms all the way to the bottom.

  3. Ah yes, “weather whiplash”. Also known as weather. But they need to make it sound scary. Maybe they could crank it up a notch, and call it “weather strangulation” or “weather disembowelment”, or how about “weather murder”? Yeah, “weather murder”, that’s the ticket.

    • Bruce,
      I see your “Weather Murder”, and raise you “Weather Genocide”.

      Obviously excludes Burma [Myanmar] where the genocide is due to power-crazed loonies.

      Auto

  4. The oceans are warmed by visible radiation, not LWIR. Unless they can explain how CO2 can make more visible radiation reach the oceans, this theory is pure nonsense. The wavelengths that CO2 absorbs won’t warm water, in fact, they won’t even melt snowflakes. The earth emits 13 to 18 micron LWIR during the winter, it gets absorbed by the water in a snowflake…and nothing happens. The energy isn’t even enough to melt a snowflake.

    • The LWIR energy isn’t even enough to melt a snowflake. I like that. I can’t wait until I tell my Co2 Alarmist neighbor.

  5. From what have seen of the recent changes to the jet stream, which should they last over the longer term. Then the USA is likely to see longer lasting winters that will extend into the spring. Combined with slightly shorter and at times intense summers.

  6. I predict that the climatistas won’t go far with this one. Too dangerous for them.

    That’s because ENSO has an obvious ~60 year cycle. The same cycle is apparent in HadCRUT 3v. When you detrend the dataset you get this graph. And that graph shows that nearly half of the “warming” during the IPCC model training period of 1906-2005 was due to an artefact of choosing the start and end dates.

    If the warmies ever truly acknowledged the ~60 year cycle it alone would close off their global warming money taps.

  7. Seems to me that if temperature goes up a bit, tropical cloudiness will go up a lot. If that happens, where will the heat to drive those evil el Ninos come from?

  8. ‘Each model was run dozens of times with slightly different starting conditions. Taken together, the large number of model simulations allowed the scientists to distinguish impacts linked to El Niño and La Niña from those caused by the natural chaos in the climate system.’

    Yeah, sure it did. Ha ha ha ha. The average of junk is . . . junk.

    “I do not believe in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance.” – Thomas Carlyle

  9. “But we can say that an El Niño that forms in the future is likely to have more influence over our weather than if the same El Niño formed today.”
    WTF?….It’ll be the same, only it’ll be different next time.

    • rocketscientist, it’s a bigger WTF than that. They “can’t say .. whether the El Niños that do form will be stronger or weaker,”, but they can say that they will “have more influence over our weather than if the same El Niño formed today.”. That’s a WTFH not just a WTF. Or even a WTFHIGOITTLM.

  10. There is so much BS in that paper that it will take a 12 pack to erase if from my mind. They have gone completely off the rails. If they start playing more realistic commercial video games they will need to be kept under armed guard!

  11. If the weather gets cooler it will get drier and there will be droughts, but if it gets warmer, the weather will get wetter and we will have floods. Either way, we are DOOMED and we will regret having breathed out all those CO2 molecules. Always remember, it is all your fault. The models have spoken.

  12. Tell me what “Climate model simulations have been divided in their portrayal of how climate change will influence the sea surface temperature changes associated with El Niño and La Niña events. For this study, the scientists were able to remove this effect and look at what the impact of individual events of a given magnitude would be.” means.

    I think the first part means that different models have different versions of ENSO event effects. How would one remove this?

    • How would one remove this? You are obviously not an experienced modeller. It’s easy. 1. Run the models and record their results. 2. Determine the required result. 3. Add (2) – (1) to each model.

  13. When models can predict the next 3 El Nino events then I will sit up and listen. In fact, I believe the current prediction is 65-70% chance of an El Nino this year. Certainly not looking that good right now. So, if the “science” can’t even tell us what is going to happen within 6 months, why would any journal publish this nonsense?

  14. Seems they took recent massive El Nino high, added 5 degrees everywhere in the world evenly, then kicked off their models to see how that would impact the world.

    Bad assumptions, followed by worse science, backed up by broken models.

  15. Back around 2002 or 2003, Dr. George Philander of Princeton University told me he wrote a book in which he predicted that el Ninos would dominate in a CO2-warmed world over la Ninas, IIRC, his computer simulations of the time; and, I also believe he stated to me that these el Ninos would be stronger, as well. It does not appear to me that either prediction has materialized, at least as yet. And, I think many would agree that it has not warmed much, if at all, since then, so perhaps we will have to wait for more enhanced warming (whether greenhouse-gas-induced, or due to natural variability, or both, or some other cause) to see how his predictions fare. However, the warming predictions don’t seem to want to materialize, either.

  16. The whole pastulation is based on that there is global warming!!! Unless this is proved, these inferences serve little. Natural variations in precipitation and temperature exists all over the world and we are smoking these and worried more on hypothetical studies. So far I haven’t seen the impact in relation to El Nino and La Nina. Indian rainfall versus these were published.

    Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

  17. “But we can say that an El Niño that forms in the future is likely to have more influence over our weather than if the same El Niño formed today.”

    When strong El Nino’s occur during a negative phase of the ~70 year AMO, generally makes for worse than average winter weather in the NH. So maybe NCAR is just playing into the hand nature is about to serve up (still some time off)? And AGW is just the red herring.

    Warm tropical air mass feeding moisture into the system meets cold mid-latitude air mass. Snow happens.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg
    Note: this graph has not been updated since 2013. According to this line of thought, AMO 70-year running de-trended analysis, AMO won’t be at negative departure until 2025-2030.

  18. This study comes down to an assumption using climate models that don’t confirm anything. There is no way anybody can claim a future scenario without knowing why or how weaker/stronger, more/less ENSO events occur. Just finding this contradiction just confirms propaganda alarmist rubbish.

    The Walker circulation being the main mechanism that drives ENSO is controlled by the sun. The pressure gradient caused by solar radiation warming the ocean surface especially during high pressure periods with clear skies. The difference between pressure gradients cause the westerly or easterly flows known as the trade winds.

    This circulation requires more energy to drive the La Nina phase because it pushes the ocean waters towards the west fuelling heavy rains and thunderstorms. These require a huge amount of energy and the system can’t continue this process without further external input. Low solar activity leads to lower energy in the system unable to drive the rains and thunderstorms in the west so the circulation weakens leading to El Nino. Continuous periods of low solar activity therefore lead to frequent potentially strong El Nino’s.

    Proxies have found historic periods where more strong numerous El Nino’s dominate and frequent strong La Nina’s dominate. What a lot of people don’t realise is that these events occurred during historical times not expected. The numerous strong El Nino’s were found during cold periods with low solar activity and the frequent strong La Nina’s were found during high periods of solar activity.

    Therefore when a low solar activity period occurs in future with frequent El Nino’s it will be obvious what the alarmists try and blame it on, but they will be wrong.

  19. “allowed the scientists to distinguish impacts linked to El Niño and La Niña from those caused by the natural chaos in the climate system”

    What? El Niño and La Niña are PART of the natural chaos in the system.

Comments are closed.