Note: Our ENSO forecast skills are very low, i.e. recent “results indicate skills somewhat lower than those found for the less advanced models of the 1980s and 1990s” “This finding” “suggests that decadal variations in the character of ENSO variability are a greater skill-determining factor than the steady but gradual trend toward improved ENSO prediction science and models.” Barnston et al. Furthermore, “model predictions of ENSO made before March-May have been shown to have very low skill. The low skill is caused by the Spring Prediction Barrier, which is discussed in the IRI webpage” here and here. Bob Tisdale
Niño 3.4 Anomaly Forecasts:
Niño 3.4 Standardized Anomaly Forecasts:
Niño 3.4 Standardized Temperature Forecasts:
Plume of Model ENSO Predictions:
Niño 1 + 2 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
Niño 3 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
Niño 3.4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
Niño 4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
You can see the progression of the Niño forecasts over 30 days, i.e. “Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensebmle (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days.” CPC
For Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E1
For Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E2
Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E3
Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies 80 Forecast Members:
Plume-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center –
Home Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Products Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
Consolidated Niño 3.4 Forecasts Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/
ENSO NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFS2) – http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
ENSO Forecasts Page http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/
ENSO Forecasts FTP Pagehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/
Monitoring and Data Products Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/MD_index.shtml
Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/
Atmospheric & SST Indices Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/
Monitoring and Data Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/
FTP Page – ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Climate Data Library -The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Home Page – http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt
General Products Page – http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=7868&mode=2
ENSO Products Page – http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html
ENSO Forecast Archive Page – http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/index_ensoprob.html
Atmospheric Circulation Products Page- http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/
Height Anomaly Loop Products Page – http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/Height_Anom_Loops.html
Atmospheric Temperature Page – http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Temp/
(Note that the data from this source should be viewed with skepticism as Dr. R.K. Pachauri is the Board Chair: http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=551&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2)w
So it appears that chances for a strong El Niño are slipping away…..have I read this correctly?
El Nino is now el Morte. He’s dead, Jim.
Would you like to reconsider that death pronouncement at this time? There seems to have been a resurrection.
El Niño isn’t dead, he just used old data
Now, as we see one snow storm after another upstate NY in April, all the el Nino data shows that it began a steep decline in January and this got steeper in February and March and now in April, it is pretty much finished as I predicted.
mid-May, 2016: snow upstate NY as things cool down rapidly.
Read about jet streams being accelerated by mid-latitude oxygen/ozone conversion, accentuating Rossby wave meanders. Study the new theory on your desktop monitor at this dedicated website:
Now I’ve got conflicting Monty Python skits running through my head. “The Parrot” and “I’m not dead”.
Please bring back the ENSO meter thumbnail that was located on the sidebar.
I looked at that often and I miss it! 🙁
Thank You! 🙂
Anthony, did you notice that NASA’s GMAO model is an outlier for the ENSO prediction here in January 2020? It predicts La Niña this year, with a massive cooling expected! What gives? Whatsupwiththat? https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ The folks at Columbia didn’t even mention NASA by name when it said, “Only one model predicts La Niña development.” Hmmm.
It appears that ENSO forecasting is still pretty poor and this winter’s la nina isn’t going to be anywhere as strong as was predicted a couple of months ago. Chances of the UAH temperature anomaly being negative in the spring seem to be slight to non existant, unless they change the reference period from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 which they should to meet World Meterological Organisation guidelines. Doing so will reduce all future anomalies by aprox. 0.15 degrees, so the chances of NASA and NOOA doing this are probably quite small