Note: Our ENSO forecast skills are very low, i.e. recent “results indicate skills somewhat lower than those found for the less advanced models of the 1980s and 1990s” “This finding” “suggests that decadal variations in the character of ENSO variability are a greater skill-determining factor than the steady but gradual trend toward improved ENSO prediction science and models.” Barnston et al. Furthermore, “model predictions of ENSO made before March-May have been shown to have very low skill. The low skill is caused by the Spring Prediction Barrier, which is discussed in the IRI webpage” here and here. Bob Tisdale
Niño 3.4 Anomaly Forecasts:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 3.4 Standardized Anomaly Forecasts:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 3.4 Standardized Temperature Forecasts:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Plume of Model ENSO Predictions:
Columbia University – NOAA – International Research Institute (IRI)/CPC – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 1 + 2 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 3 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 3.4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
You can see the progression of the Niño forecasts over 30 days, i.e. “Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensebmle (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days.” CPC
For Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E1
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
For Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E2
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E3
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies 80 Forecast Members:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source
Plume-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast:
Columbia University – NOAA – International Research Institute (IRI)/CPC – Click the pic to view at source
Source Guide:
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center –
Home Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Products Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
Consolidated Niño 3.4 Forecasts Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/
ENSO NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFS2) – http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/
ENSO Forecasts Page http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/
ENSO Forecasts FTP Pagehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/
Monitoring and Data Products Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/MD_index.shtml
Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/
Atmospheric & SST Indices Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/
Monitoring and Data Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/
FTP Page – ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Climate Data Library -The Earth Institute at Columbia University
Home Page – http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt
General Products Page – http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=7868&mode=2
ENSO Products Page – http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html
ENSO Forecast Archive Page – http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/index_ensoprob.html
Atmospheric Circulation Products Page- http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/
Height Anomaly Loop Products Page – http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/Height_Anom_Loops.html
Atmospheric Temperature Page – http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Temp/
(Note that the data from this source should be viewed with skepticism as Dr. R.K. Pachauri is the Board Chair: http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=551&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2)w
So it appears that chances for a strong El Niño are slipping away…..have I read this correctly?
El Nino is now el Morte. He’s dead, Jim.
Would you like to reconsider that death pronouncement at this time? There seems to have been a resurrection.
El Niño isn’t dead, he just used old data
Now, as we see one snow storm after another upstate NY in April, all the el Nino data shows that it began a steep decline in January and this got steeper in February and March and now in April, it is pretty much finished as I predicted.
mid-May, 2016: snow upstate NY as things cool down rapidly.