Does NASA’s Latest Study Confirm Global Warming?

Some heated claims were made in a recently published scientific paper, “Recent Global Warming as Confirmed by AIRS,” authored by Susskind et al. One of the co-authors is NASA’s Dr. Gavin Schmidt, keeper of the world’s most widely used dataset on global warming: NASA GISTEMP Press coverage for the paper was strong. ScienceDaily said that the study “verified global…

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Curious Correlations

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Grrrrr … gotta pull this one. The effect I found was due to the interaction of the El Nino with the seasons. Once I removed that, very different results. When I’m wrong, I’m wrong, no getting around that. Ah, well. I’ll return to this subject of correlations with Nino/Nina, it’s…

El Niño Conditions Persist in the Pacific Ocean

An El Niño that began to form last fall has matured and is now fully entrenched across the Pacific Ocean. Changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) brought about by an El Niño affect the atmosphere, resulting in distinctive changes in the rainfall pattern across the Pacific Basin. These changes show up as anomalies or deviations…

2019 ENSO forecast

Reposted from Climate Etc. by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40% probability of weak El Niño conditions. – Forecast issued 3/25/19 Introduction CFAN’s early…

NOAA: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 December 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 201819 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).   ENSO-neutral continued during November,…

El Niño development looking more likely now

ENSO-neutral conditions still reign as of the beginning of the month, but we’re starting to see some clearer signs of the development of El Niño. Forecasters estimate that El Niño conditions will develop in the next few months, and there’s a 70-75% chance El Niño will be present through the winter.  Most computer models are currently predicting…

August 2018 ENSO update: ‘game show edition’

From climate.gov by Emily Becker By nearly all measurements, the tropical Pacific is comfortably gliding along in ENSO-neutral conditions, and forecasters expect that will continue through the rest of the summer. The chance that our old buddy El Niño will be around during the fall is about 60%, rising to 70% by winter, and the El Niño Watch is continued…