NOAA: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 13 December 2018 ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 201819 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance).   ENSO-neutral continued during November,…

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El Niño development looking more likely now

ENSO-neutral conditions still reign as of the beginning of the month, but we’re starting to see some clearer signs of the development of El Niño. Forecasters estimate that El Niño conditions will develop in the next few months, and there’s a 70-75% chance El Niño will be present through the winter.  Most computer models are currently predicting…

August 2018 ENSO update: ‘game show edition’

From climate.gov by Emily Becker By nearly all measurements, the tropical Pacific is comfortably gliding along in ENSO-neutral conditions, and forecasters expect that will continue through the rest of the summer. The chance that our old buddy El Niño will be around during the fall is about 60%, rising to 70% by winter, and the El Niño Watch is continued…

Solar minimum and ENSO prediction

By Javier Two solar physicists, Robert Leamon from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and Scott McIntosh from the High Altitude Observatory at Boulder, CO, have made an interesting observation that links changes in solar activity with changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). As they reported at the AGU 2017 Fall Meeting, the termination…

NOAA says La Niña in the Pacific is over

Adios, La Niña by Rebecca Lindsey, NOAA  The La Niña event that overtook the tropical Pacific this past winter is officially over, according to the latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. La Niña’s signatureof heavier-than-usual rainfall in the western part of the basin has tapered off, and the cool surface waters in the central part of the basin…

The 60-year oscillation revisited

Guest Post by Javier It is a well-known feature of climate change that since 1850 multiple climate datasets present a ~ 60-year oscillation. I recently wrote about it in the 7th chapter of my Nature Unbound series. This oscillation is present in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific…

Finding: North Pacific climate patterns influence El Nino occurrences

From the INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES and the “tail wagging the dog” department. For decades, the world’s leading scientists have observed the phenomena known as El Nino and La Nina. Both significantly impact the global climate and both pose a puzzle to scientists since they’re not completely understood. Now, a new study…

Some overheated rhetoric from Jonathan Overpeck

From the UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA and the “El Nino is just a heat vent for greenhouse gases” department. Record jump in 2014-2016 global temperatures largest since 1900 Heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions and stored in the Pacific Ocean was released by the 2015-2016 El Niño, University of Arizona geoscientists found. Global surface temperatures surged…