Tokyo’s Coolest September In Over 30 Years…Hachijojima No Warming In 107 Years…Latest Forecast: Sharp La Niña!

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 1. October 2021

By Kirye
and Pierre

Tokyo has seen its coolest September in over 30 yearsaccording to data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).

Data source: JMA.

Tokyo’s mean temperature for September, 2021, was 22.3°C — the coolest recorded September mean in over 30 years.

Hachijojima island

Meanwhile, Hachijojima, an island belonging to Tokyo out in the Pacific and absent of the urban heat island effect, saw a September mean temperature of 24.5°C:

Data source: JMA

Plotting the data going back 107 years, the island has not seen any real warming at all in September.

Osaka

The industrial city of Osaka saw a September mean temperature of 24.6°C:

Data source: JMA

Osaka has seen September mean temperatures cooling modestly since 1994.

Latest ENSO forecast: La Niña!

Globally, the mean temperature over the coming year will likely see more cooling as La Niña conditions are forecast until mid spring 2022, the latest NOAA NWS projections show:

Source: NOAA.

Global warming alarmists will have to settle for chasing around the globe, looking for thunderstorms — calling them “supercells” — and using them as bogus signs of climate change. But everyone knows extreme weather is part of our planet and have been around for millions of years. It’s nothing new.

Nothing that unusual is happening to our climate. Claims of increasingly extreme weather due to mankind’s activities are largely false. The data clearly show it.

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Ron Long
October 2, 2021 2:07 pm

Is this what AlGore calls “An Inconvenient Truth”?

Anon
Reply to  Ron Long
October 2, 2021 4:32 pm

Very good!!!

But no can do! An Inconvenient Truth ©

But “An Unconvenient Truth” is still available.

That might be a subtle way to distinguish the propaganda from the shootdowns, and create some parodies, as probably very few would notice it. You could probably do a movie with that title and have it accidentally played at some climate change event. (lol)

Last edited 1 month ago by Anon
commieBob
Reply to  Anon
October 2, 2021 8:36 pm

You’ve used the copyright symbol. You can’t copyright a title. link

You might be able to trademark “An Inconvenient Truth”, but a quick web search doesn’t indicate that’s been done.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Anon
October 2, 2021 9:24 pm

Were you trying for some sort of point?

Patrick Maher
Reply to  Anon
October 3, 2021 2:54 am

You can’t copyright titles. You could call it Gone With the Wind if you wanted to

Chris Wright
Reply to  Ron Long
October 3, 2021 2:43 am

A more honest title for his film would have been “Convenient Lies”.
Chris

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Chris Wright
October 3, 2021 7:05 am

Or “Fantastically Profitable Lies.”

HotScot
October 2, 2021 2:07 pm

Cool, Bro…………..

Bellman
October 2, 2021 2:17 pm

Meanwhile globally we’ve had the 6th warmest September in 42 years according to UAH.

202109UAH6month.png
Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 2:22 pm

6th warmest September in 42 years

I love these “xth warmest y in z years” tropes! That loverley stench of desperation…

Last edited 1 month ago by Zig Zag Wanderer
Bellman
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
October 2, 2021 2:41 pm

As opposed to the usual blog posts finding some small part of the world that has had it’s coldest month.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 4:44 pm

So the warming isn’t global.
That’s probably why the thermaggedonists dropped “global warming” as their catchphrase. The truth had a habit of making them look stupid.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 2, 2021 9:26 pm

The truth had a habit of making them look stupid.

It’s never all that difficult to make them look stupid. They cooperatively provide all the ammunition for that.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Rory Forbes
October 3, 2021 3:18 am

They hand us a box of grenades and a launcher to go with it every time they comment.

Duane
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 6:32 pm

Which only proves that climate is not global, as you warmunists have always claimed, but is always regional

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 7:08 am

However it is not small parts of the world that have been cool but huge geographical areas, like most of Europe! It happens when La Nina is going on.

M Courtney
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 2:34 pm

6th warmest September in 42 Years?
6 / 42 gives a 14% chance of that being the case by pure chance.

But this is September. No-one picked the month of September in advance. So it could be any month in 12…

This means in any given year we should expect this record for any unspecified month to pop up in:
(12 x 6) / 42.
Or 12 times 14% of the time.
In other words this should happen for any particular month on average:
1.7 times every year.

It will be more than that because there is a warming trend. But it happening at all is hardly newsworthy.

So the evidence you provide is actually representative of AGW. It’s not newsworthy or important.

Last edited 1 month ago by M Courtney
Bellman
Reply to  M Courtney
October 2, 2021 2:53 pm

I mentioned September because it’s the subject of this blog post. I never said this month was news worthy. Just that it’s a counterpart to the it was cold in Japan in this post.

Yes if there had been no warming you might expect an individual month to be in the top 14%, 14% of the time. But how likely would it be that 5 of the last 6 Septembers have been in the top 6?

  Year Anomaly
1 2019    0.45
2 2020    0.40
3 2017    0.39
4 2016    0.30
5 1998    0.28
6 2021    0.25

In other words this should happen for any particular month on average:
1.7 times every year.

And so far with 3/4 of 2021 we have already beaten that expectation as July was 5th warmest

   Year Anomaly
1  1998    0.38
2  2020    0.31
3  2016    0.26
4  2019    0.25
5  2010    0.20
6  2021    0.20

And there have been a couple of months that just missed out by being 7th warmest. And looking at the last 12 months as a whole we also had October and November 2020 both 2nd warmest.

M Courtney
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 3:06 pm

Ah, you see the statistical mistake you have made this time is to assume that months in the same year are independent of each other.
In reality the weather on June 30th is indicative of the weather on July 1st.

My first comment on this page, before my reply to you, was weather not climate. I know that the original poster is reporting nothing of import. But it is reporting the truth that nothing of import is happening.

My point was that you are posting numbers to try and sound sciencey when you clearly understand nothing on this subject.

Or maybe you do understand and are deliberately trying to deceive?

There is nothing of import happening.

Bellman
Reply to  M Courtney
October 2, 2021 3:53 pm

Yes, there’s a lot of autocorrelation in UAH. Doesn’t explain 5 of the last 6 years all being in the top 6. But why even argue. We can both see there’s been a warming trend over the last 42 years, it’s hardly surprising that there are more hot months now than in the past. I’m just not sure why you think stating this is deceptive.

M Courtney
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 4:27 pm

Because you are claiming that the warming trend is newsworthy. You imply that something must be done.

My opinion: Temperature can only do one of three things:
A) Rise.
B) Fall:
C) Stay the same.

C is very unlikely. Nothing stays the same in a chaotic system like the climate.

So we would be betting the entire world’s economy on a 50:50 bet.
But as we have been warming since the little Ice Age (with a dip from the 1940s to 70s) it is actually far worse than that. Odds are tomorrow will be like today and the warming continues… regardless of cause for the warming.

Indeed, in a chaotic system there may be no discernible cause.

The poor die because of poverty. In the 20th Century there was a policy consensus that reducing poverty was a good thing. The only difference was how to do that (a Cold War).

Nowadays Greens demand greater poverty – at least for the black and yellow peoples – in order to save the planet.

You are wrong.
The warming trend is not newsworthy. Nothing must be done. We do not need to kill the poor. Bad mathematics is no excuse for genocide.

That’s something else we learned from the 20th century (the 1940s).

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 4:47 pm

You maintaining it’s man made warmth when you have no proof it’s not natural is deceptive.

Bellman
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 2, 2021 5:15 pm

Did I say it was man made? I mean, now you say it it seems quite plausible, but my post was merely pointing out is was warmer now than it had been in the past.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 3:17 am

So you agree the warming is natural.
We’ll make a sceptic of you soon Bellman!

Bellman
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 3, 2021 11:19 am

Brilliant logic there. If I don’t say it’s man made it must mean I’m saying it’s natural!

M Courtney
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 3:42 pm

So you are not saying it’ manmade.
And you are not saying it’s natural.

So who done it?

Satellites are in space, Are you saying it’s made by a non-human intelligence?

Ancient Aliens we have a fan.

Bellman
Reply to  M Courtney
October 3, 2021 4:17 pm

I’m not saying nothing.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Bellman
October 4, 2021 11:48 pm

So what caused it? Aliens?

Pamela Matlack-Klein
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 7:14 am

An awful lot depends on where the instruments are located and how accurate they are. Claiming the “warmest month” based on a tenth or hundredth of a degree is disingenuous. Especially when that temperature is obtained at the airport alongside 9 Right, one of the busiest runways at east coast US airports.

Bellman
Reply to  Pamela Matlack-Klein
October 3, 2021 11:20 am

The instruments are located in space and orbiting the earth. I’m not saying it’s the warmest September, I’m not even saying it’s the 6th warmest, I’m saying that according to UAH it was the 6th warmest.

Duane
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 6:37 pm

Not true … clear cooling trends in Antarctica and east Asia, giving the lie to claims of global climate trends. Climate is and always has been regional not global. Actually you guys agree every time you try to debunk the medieval warming period and little ice age as nothing but regional trends.

You warmunists are obvious practitioners of the “heads I win, tails you lose” scam.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Duane
October 2, 2021 9:33 pm

All this simply proves that warmunists have no idea what climate actually means and that invariably most of their comments relate to weather only. They don’t even have a fixed idea what “climate change” means … which is why their usage is equivocal.

Nelson
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 4:43 pm

Have you heard of the AMO? Cycles upon cycles upon cycles.

Tony
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 2:08 am

You’re not very good at this are you?

Bellman
Reply to  Tony
October 3, 2021 11:25 am

Depends what “this” is.

If I really was the troll lavishly paid to disrupt these conversations, as Lord Monckton likes to pretend, I’d say I was doing a good job. I make a simple remake commenting on this blogs favorite global satellite data set, making the not remarkable statement that last month was ranked 6th, and divert nearly all the discussion on to me, rather than the actual claims of the post.

Gator
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 4:29 am

UHI and fudged data. (Yawn)

Bellman
Reply to  Gator
October 3, 2021 11:26 am

UAH and fudged data?

Tom Halla
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 2:43 pm

42 years ago we were still in the Coming Ice Age scare, with the 1945/1975 cooling spell. BFD!

Ron Long
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 2, 2021 3:15 pm

Broken Forecast Deal?

Tedz
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 2:44 pm

IPCC vice chair Mark Howden said the UAH satellite data “is not a robust measurement of global surface temperatures”.

“The problems with relying on satellite measures of temperature alone are well-known – at least since the late 1990s. For such an important topic, it is critical that discussions use the latest and most robust information and appropriate ways of interpreting this.” February 2021

Bellman
Reply to  Tedz
October 2, 2021 2:57 pm

I have doubts about the accuracy of UAH, but it’s the only data that is trusted here. Or at least it used to be.

RelPerm
Reply to  Bellman
October 4, 2021 7:37 pm

Yeah, reported to 0.01 degrees but uncertainty +/- 0.20 degrees. Pretty wide range of uncertainty, even with UAH.

M Courtney
Reply to  Tedz
October 2, 2021 3:12 pm

What is a robust measurement of global surface temperatures?

UHI contaminated, spatially grouped land measurements?
The geological snapshot of ARGO buoys?
The buckets of water taken on shipping lanes or the thermocouples near turbines on ships that replaced them?

Truth is we don’t really have good enough knowledge of global temperature to discern even if the global temperature is a meaningful statistic.

Calm down and adapt to what happens. It worked in Joseph’s time and throughout history since. That policy has a long and good track record.

Mr.
Reply to  M Courtney
October 2, 2021 4:28 pm

“Global” temperature constructs are abject nonsense of the first order.

And presenting these constructs in hundredths, even thousandths of degrees C over decades as robust representations of reality is an experience one would expect to see at some sort of Jonestown cult gathering.

John Larson
Reply to  Mr.
October 2, 2021 5:18 pm

Be drinkin’ the Warmaid ; )

Duane
Reply to  M Courtney
October 2, 2021 6:38 pm

“Robust” is whatever confirms my shaky climate models”.

Tedz
Reply to  M Courtney
October 2, 2021 10:06 pm

I only used that reference to point out Bellman’s reliance on it wasn’t supported by the IPCC. Then I got red arrowed to hell!

Ouch…

Davidf
Reply to  Tedz
October 2, 2021 10:56 pm

That would be USCRN – no warming since 2005

Tom Johnson
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 3:56 pm

Were we to be experiencing real Catastrophic GLOBAL Warming, it would be warming CATASTROPHICALLY EVERYWHERE. So then, why is Tokyo cooling?

M Courtney
Reply to  Tom Johnson
October 2, 2021 4:34 pm

That’s not true.

Weather varies every place year on year by 20°C. One October 3rd could be 5°C (BRR) and the next year 25°C (heatwave!)

Weather changes are 10 times greater and 100 times faster than climate change.

So in any particular place climate change may be undetectable.

In policy terms this is quite significant. Because it would never be expected to be warming CATASTROPHICALLY EVERYWHERE

Tom Johnson
Reply to  M Courtney
October 2, 2021 5:27 pm

You’re completely missing the point I was trying to make. You’re describing daily weather, I’m describing climate. It there is to be catastrophic global warming, it’s neither catastrophic, nor global, if it only happens sporadically. Tokyo had the coldest MONTH, not a brief cold spell.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Tom Johnson
October 2, 2021 9:39 pm

This whole goat rodeo IS about weather and only weather. This planet doesn’t have a climate. If you refer to climate you’re merely buying into the warmunist doctrine. In fact you can’t really describe climate in any other way buy regionally.

Meab
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 4:20 pm

Any plot that doesn’t have the confidence range of the data can’t be used to make the claim of nth warmest month. You’ve posted a plot that has mislead you into thinking that the average temperature is error-free. It’s NOT. Your homework, Bellend, is to find the same plot with error bars and count how many months might have been warmer than Sept. 2021 at the one and two sigma level.

Bellman
Reply to  Meab
October 2, 2021 6:07 pm

I certainly don’t think UAH is error free, but I don;t have any specific official statement of the monthly uncertainty in UAH. It really doesn’t matter to the point I was making. There’s no specific magic to the exact ranking of this September, I was just pointing out whilst it might have been a cold September in Japan, it wasn’t globally.

I think someone suggested recently that the uncertainty in monthly UAH might be ±0.15°C, in which case the graph with uncertainty lines would look something like this.

20211002wuwt8.png
Editor
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 7:25 pm

Isn’t it a contradiction to say it wasn’t warming in Japan last month but it is warming globally?

Isn’t Japan part of the globe too?

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Sunsettommy
October 2, 2021 10:32 pm

Not a contradiction when talking about a gobal average. If Japan was cooler than average in September then clearly this was offset by warmer than average temperatures elsewhere in September.

aussiecol
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 2, 2021 10:56 pm

Ah, but is it just Japan, or are there other countries experiencing the same? Just generalising, just like you.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  aussiecol
October 2, 2021 11:21 pm

There may have been other areas that were colder than average in September. That doesn’t alter the fact that, accoding to UAH, globally September was much warmer than average. So no matter which parts of the globe were colder than average in september, far more parts of the globe must have been warmer than average in September. Otherwise the global average temperature for September wouldn’t be the 6th warmest in the UAH record, would it? You can call that ‘generalising’ if you like, but it’s UAH’s data, not mine.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheFinalNail
Sara
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 5:39 am

Okay, well, Nail, if you can find some of that warm air, could you please send it MY WAY????? I have never had to start my furnace up on September 1st, so I’d like to get some of that warmth sent to me, OK????

Dave Fair
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 3:13 pm

Globally, things warm up around a Super El Nino. Cup your nuts; we are entering a cold period if the tea leaves are correct.

Editor
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 7:48 am

The reality remains that Japan was cooler than usual for the region it is in, doesn’t notice it was warmer somewhere else on the planet.

Global averaging doesn’t tell us much where the warming and cooling is occurring on the same planet.

Averaging as a concept that needs to be put back in its proper place.

ATheoK
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 4, 2021 9:01 pm

“talking about a gobal{sic} average”

No such thing.
It’s proof that averages are not suitable for many things.

The minor fact that because someone can do a sum and division does not make the resulting average useful or informative.

Last edited 1 month ago by ATheoK
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 1:05 am

You can’t compare sat data with 2m temps.
If you do it’s nonsense.

Last edited 1 month ago by Krishna Gans
Bellman
Reply to  Krishna Gans
October 3, 2021 11:27 am

Sorry I forgot. Must be all those times UAH and RSS were used to show that the surface data sets were wrong.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Krishna Gans
October 3, 2021 3:18 pm

Well, the UN IPCC CliSciFi climate models do, by reflecting surface temperature estimates into the atmosphere using various home-grown algorithms. They get the fictional Hot Spot that way

If the actual, observed trends differ, we have a problem, Huston.

Last edited 1 month ago by Dave Fair
Sara
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 5:37 am

Bellman, my entire SUMMER was below normal overall. I track daily temps, including nighttime readings, provided by an airport near me through the NWS. Do you want to argue with THEM? Except for 8 days in August, it was a well-BELOW normal temps summer.

This isn’t Venus and it isn’t Mars. Even those planets have varying temperatures.

You’re just trying to hard to make a point that only applies to closed systems and we AREN’T in a close system on this planet. And a half degree difference in temperature anywhere is something YOU can’t even feel.

rbabcock
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 6:21 am

The real problem is UAH started in 1979, which may seem like a long time ago, but in reality some of these ocean cycles seem to run in substantially longer timeframes than 40 years. The 70’s were a relatively colder time than today, so if in fact we just happened to start launching satellites at the bottom of a cycle that runs 60-80 years, you are on the left side of the bell curve.

Now we can go back further using the “land” datasets, but they are incomplete and have been corrupted beyond usability.

Bellman
Reply to  rbabcock
October 3, 2021 11:28 am

I’ll use the longer term surface data sets when they come out later in the month, but at the moment UAH is the only global data I have for September.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 3:10 pm

Super El Ninos are a bitch. But, then again, so are Deep La Ninas.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 4:42 pm

So not the warmest then.
How underwhelming.

Bellman
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
October 2, 2021 5:13 pm

No. That’s why I said it was the 6th warmest. You see 6th is below 1st. That’s how ordinals work.

Editor
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 7:28 pm

Until this climate hysteria came along around 30 years ago, NO ONE ever habitually talked about warmest day, week or month on record as if it was something sinister brewing in the future, it is being done for scaremongering purposes.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Sunsettommy
October 2, 2021 10:34 pm

There then followed a 30 year statistically significant warming trend. Odd thing to ignore, no?

aussiecol
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 2, 2021 11:04 pm

Just like other warm periods the planet has experienced in the past. But there were no alarmists then prophesising doom and gloom. But I suppose they were burned at the stake for black magic. 🎃

Sara
Reply to  aussiecol
October 3, 2021 5:40 am

No, the dinosaurs probably had them for lunch.

Mike
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 2, 2021 11:51 pm

There then followed a 30 year statistically significant warming trend. Odd thing to ignore, no?”

No. It’s weather.

Editor
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 7:57 am

You apparently misunderstood my post since I was talking about warmest DAY, WEEK or YEAR on record newsmaking claims.

Never said anything about the warming trend of 30 years or whatever at all.

It is the media and warmist/alarmists who are pushing the dishonest warmest day or what ever on record and then scream we are in trouble!!!

What ever happened to the warmists original “it has to be 30 years trend before it matters” argument?

I haven’t seen that argument from them in recent years……

I wonder if the Romans 2000 years ago filled up sanatoriums of their day with people who screams about warmest day month or year on record….. maybe that is why Rome fell because it was getting COLD!

The Hurricane season this year is a dud for the media as they have been nearly silent since it is below average and little to scream about….

The Media/ecoloonies screams are muted this year…..

Snicker……

Last edited 1 month ago by Sunsettommy
Dave Fair
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 3:22 pm

Hee, hee, hee: A 30-year trend during a 70-year cycle. Color me unconvinced that we are all gonna die.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  Bellman
October 2, 2021 9:43 pm

That’s why I said it was the 6th warmest.

An utterly meaningless designation in all rational senses.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Rory Forbes
October 2, 2021 11:00 pm

Apart from when it’s being mentioned in the context in which it was used. The aim of the above article, in common with nearly every article this site carries from NTZ, is to point to a single region on a particular month somewhere in the globe and say “Look, colder than usual in X this month. What’s all this fuss about warming?”

Since the fuss about warming is based on global trends over time, rather than regional temperatures in a single month, it is perfectly legitimate to highlight the fact that, according to UAH, the global temperature database of choice around here (when it suits), globally September was much warmer than average this year and that this continues a series of warmer than average Septembers globally, resulting in a long term, statistically significant global warming trend for September and all other months.

Saying ‘X was colder than average this month’ and hoping that no one will point out that this was an exception rather than a rule is pretty weak as arguments go. It’s not skepticism; it’s plain old – “Look, a squirrel!” – style misdirection.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 2, 2021 11:36 pm

We merely point out the utter fallacious nature of your entire narrative, when and wherever you make your fatuous claims. Bellend is infamous around here for presenting drivel. “Global temperature” in itself is a meaningless term of interest only to politicians and the pseudo scientists supplying them with their copy.

The article above is perfectly clear and in line with the usual product supplied by the various alarmist organs supplying what passes for science among your pals. She accomplishes precisely what was intended … no more and no less. After all, you are the reigning champions of trotting out some record or other. Your entire narrative is all about meaningless records … “the sixth warmist June 12 in recorded history” … “the hottest 2 day heat wave since 2018”. Even then it’s likely to be a lie. You idiots have forgotten where you put the truth.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  Rory Forbes
October 3, 2021 12:14 am

Bit of a rant. Calm down and make a rational argument.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 1:19 am

You’ve merely acknowledged that you’re unable to find anything to refute what I wrote. That isn’t at all surprising. Typically, you don’t know the meaning of rational. You start with a sweeping generalization fallacy and end with a series of unsupported assertions. You’re no better than Bellend … unable to understand the fundamentals of the subject including its history.

Sara
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 5:54 am

He did make a rational argument, Nail. You are in denial.

Dave Fair
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 3:25 pm

Uh, TFN, go back to your chart from above. The chart titled 2 of 2 shows the confidence intervals. Now tell me that it is absolutely true that this September was the 6th highest.

Dave Fair
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 3:30 pm

Given the recent extended Super El Nino, it damned well better be a little warmer globally. Unless we have another El Nino in the next few years, there will be a downward trend in global temperatures. Lord Monckton’s zero trend will lengthen at least until the next Super El Nino.

Last edited 1 month ago by Dave Fair
Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 3:15 am

So, no out of control warming. It’s almost as if it’s just natural, isn’t it?

Patrick Maher
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 2:55 am

Yeah, so? That means it was warmer 42 years ago. Meaning a 42 year old trend line would show cooling.

Last edited 1 month ago by Patrick Maher
Bellman
Reply to  Patrick Maher
October 3, 2021 11:30 am

No, it means the UAH data set only goes back 42 years.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 3:34 pm

Yeah, and the Earth has been cooling for about 4 to 6 thousand years.

Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 4:19 am

The self importance of being correct RE: AGW is viciously diminished once you realize that you have no viable solution, unless your solution is simply the pursuit of control over the lives of others.

Sara
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 5:24 am

Sorry, Bellmann, but this AIN’T the warmest September where I live. In fact, this entire summer was chillier than normal.

Oh, and we still had snow falling in April THIS year. I have photos of it that are time and date stamped.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sara
Bellman
Reply to  Sara
October 3, 2021 11:15 am

All I said was according to UAH, the only temperature data set people here trust, it was the 6th warmest September. That does not mean it will be the warmest September where you live.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 3:36 pm

Look at your chart 2 of 2, above, and its confidence intervals. Can you say with absolute certainty that this September was the 6th warmest?

Bellman
Reply to  Dave Fair
October 3, 2021 4:08 pm

No, as I’ve already said there is no certainty that 2021 was exactly the 6th warmest September on record. It wouldn’t surprise me if other data sets put it higher. All I’ve ever said is that according to UAH this was the 6th warmest September on record.

I’ve really no idea why you are so upset by this. It’s not like the months are competing in the Olympic games, and it’s not like being 6th is much of an achievement. Does it really matter if it wasn’t 6th but actually 7th or 4th?

Have you asked the authors of this blog post if they can be absolutely certain Tokyo had it’s coldest September in 30 years, given that it’s only 0.1°C cooler than 2nd place?

Last edited 1 month ago by Bellman
Jim Gorman
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 7:20 am

How many times have I commented to you that you need to find areas with warming that offset those with cooling? Remember, for every area with 0 degrees of warming you need one with 3 degrees of warming to offset it. And, its worse when you have areas of cooling.

UAH doesn’t exactly measure the same thing that thermometer instruments do. In fact, some of the warming in UAH can be explained by the oceans dumping a lot of heat into the atmosphere at this point in time. It is not a direct indicator of GHG induced warming due to “back radiation”! The pauses are fast becoming evidence that CO2 is NOT THE SINGLE CONTROL KNOB. Other components of the atmosphere, oceans, and land contribute varying pieces of the pie which is where natural variation arises.

Last edited 1 month ago by Jim Gorman
Bellman
Reply to  Jim Gorman
October 3, 2021 11:13 am

Well you could start here in the UK, which has had the 2nd warmest September. Really if you don’t like UAH data complain to Dr Roy Spencer when he next posts here.

BrianB
Reply to  Bellman
October 3, 2021 8:02 am

What’s striking is the means by which people like you get from “the sixth warmest September in 42 years” [such differences usually being by dubious fractions of a degree] and extrapolating to the idea that in another 42 years the world will face calamities untold.
Since the last degree centigrade made the world, if anything, more pleasant and green there is no reason to believe the next degree or two will do anything different, hand waving about tipping points and obviously implausible projections not withstanding.

Bellman
Reply to  BrianB
October 3, 2021 11:33 am

The means I used was to read Dr Roy Spencer’s blog post to find the figure for September. He normally posts the information here, but for some reason that hasn’t happened yet this month.

Where do you seem me extrapolating anything? I’m saying what last month was like not predicting what it will be like in 42 years time.

Loydo
Reply to  BrianB
October 3, 2021 2:22 pm

there is no reason to believe the next degree or two will do anything different”

Well done. Now, the next stage of denial is to tell yourself:
” …ok, it could be a problem, but there’s nothing we can do about it.” That’ll take reading further afield than the odd, misinformative echo-chamber, but good luck.

We look forward to:
“…ok, we could have done something about it, but now its too late, so lets focus on mitigation.”

Exit horse galloping down road.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Loydo
October 3, 2021 3:44 pm

Loydo, you need to update your CliSciFi jargon; what you call “mitigation” is called “adaptation” by everybody, including the warmunists.

Only CliSciFi practitioners believe another degree or two C would result in climatic doom. Even Nobel Prize Laureate Economist William Nordhaus thinks the optimum increase by the year 2100 would be around 3.5 C. And he used UN IPCC CliSciFi data to calculate that.

SxyxS
October 2, 2021 2:24 pm

That’s not fair Mrs. Heller.
September has just ended,weekend has started.
People with coffee jobs didn’t have the time to react.
Just give the NOAA and IPCC some time to adjust the data and in 2 weeks 2021 will be the hottest September ever in Tokyo.

Offtopic: Crazy Conspiracy Theory

Imagine the Ice Age Scare was based on real facts.
Imagine it was replaced by the global warming scare because it is impossible to convince people to replace conventional energy with energy that works as well as Bidens brain if they know that an ice age is coming.
Now imagine what would happen to those people in the northern hemisphere during an ice age if you destroy their energy supply.

Sara
Reply to  SxyxS
October 3, 2021 6:04 am

Well, considering everything, SxyxS, I suggest that you stock your pantry and cupboards and buy a small freezer – 5 cubic feet or so – and stock up for the long term, because we just might have another of those episodes of raiding all grocery store shelves and bins, based more on political nonsense than anything else. And get some good reading material and a couple of reliable kerosene lamps. Emergency stuff, y’know.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sara
SxyxS
Reply to  Sara
October 3, 2021 6:41 am

Well,i already stocked up to a certain degree .
What i haven’t done yet is buying canned meat though i already claimed months ago that meat will be the next bitcoin.

Sara
Reply to  Sara
October 3, 2021 7:44 am

Canned meat…. oh, lawsy, I have two cans of Spam on my shelves, just in case the Monty Pythons show up as winter ghosts begging for Spam on toast and a cold beer! Cat food does not count, although I understand that the taurine included in canned cat food improves eyesight. 🙂

My canned meat is mostly deviled ham, which is really good on toast in the morning. Otherwise, it’s the frozen chosen for me, and of course, that means the grid has to stay afloat all fall thru winter and into spring. Somehow, I will survive.

The politicians are making me more and more cynical about their real intentions. I expect another go-round of pure idiocy before long, and therefore, I”m going after the wrapped fresh meat in trays in the bins, plus a lot of small and large Ziploc bags, so that I can portion our the beef and chicken and put it back into the tray, in those small zip bags, then into a larger one for the freezer.

Practicalities.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Sara
October 3, 2021 3:56 pm

We have done just that for decades; our larder and freezers are stocked and their contents are rotated continuously. With her medical condition, my wife freaked about the toilet paper shortage so we are fully stocked there, too.

ATheoK
Reply to  Sara
October 4, 2021 10:11 pm

I have lots of canned meat, as do many people.

  • Chicken noodle soup, condensed and non-condensed.
  • Beef Stew.
  • Beef and potato soup.
  • Beef barley soup.
  • Tomato meat sauce.
  • Clam chowder.
  • Canned clams.
  • Tuna fish.
  • Canned salmon.
  • Sardines.
  • Herring.
  • Canned smoked Oysters.
  • Some tinned crab meat.
  • And anchovies if anybody cares.
  • Dried bonito flakes for soup.

Too many people overlook the obvious by focusing on the much less palatable canned meats.

We have freeze dried meals, MREs, military packaged group rib dinners. Along with 10 or so pounds of various dried legumes from green peas through lima beans, packages of salt pork and a large dried country ham.

Dried nuts, raisins, apricots, figs, seeds and whatever shows up in the stores. Plenty of flour, canned lard and sugar, multiple kinds of rice

There is also a package of real beef jerky kept in the freezer to lengthen it’s keep date, so much tastier than the sugar drenched cheap stuff.
Packages of salt cod, (baccalà) in the refrigerator and freezer; a substantial non-frost-free freezer.

Perhaps not a years worth of stored foods total, but a goodly amount and we’re capable of fishing up additional fresh meat along the local waterways.

Have raised rabbits, chickens, cattle for food before and am quite willing to do so again. Considering raising quail as they’re far cleaner than chickens and much nicer.

Many people have significant amounts of non-perishable meats around the house if they only look.

M Courtney
October 2, 2021 2:25 pm

Weather, not Climate.

Sometimes it’s hot.
Sometimes it’s cold.

If you don’t declare in advance where to look you can be right every time.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  M Courtney
October 2, 2021 4:15 pm

Whether the weather be hot,
Whether the weather be cold,
Whatever the weather,
We’ll weather the weather,
Whether we like it or not!

SxyxS
Reply to  noaaprogrammer
October 3, 2021 6:43 am

That’s from the Kate Bush song
“Weathering Heights “

paul willis
October 2, 2021 2:52 pm

そうですね

Reply to  paul willis
October 2, 2021 4:14 pm

that looks rude

SMC
Reply to  paul willis
October 2, 2021 4:25 pm

Yep, that is so.

Mr.
Reply to  paul willis
October 2, 2021 4:32 pm

That’s exactly what I was thinking!

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  paul willis
October 2, 2021 4:50 pm

Me too, but never on a Wednesday.

Rory Forbes
Reply to  paul willis
October 2, 2021 9:46 pm

はい、そうです

SxyxS
Reply to  paul willis
October 3, 2021 6:44 am

Your mother too.

Rud Istvan
October 2, 2021 5:37 pm

This is NOT new news for us old timers. In writing the climate chapter of the late 2012 Arts of Truth ebook, I cited and illustrated this exact same UHI example published here at WUWT in 2010 by AW. The WUWT site reference to way back when is https://WattsUpWithThat.com/2010/01/31/UHI-is-alive-and-well/

So, in the intervening 11 years, nothing has changed. UHI is real, it’s warmunist denial is not.

Mr.
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 2, 2021 6:37 pm

Exactly.

The ONLY “manmade climate change” has happened where big cities are now located.

Replacing square miles of bare ground, grass & forest areas with asphalt, concrete, steel, glass, etc is bound to give a higher ambient temperature, and lower local rainfall.

I watched it happen over ~ 45 years in the location I grew up in.

angech
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 2, 2021 6:44 pm

PG
“Globally, the mean temperature over the coming year will likely see more cooling as La Niña conditions are forecast until mid spring 2022, the latest NOAA NWS projections show:”

One can only hope and wish.
All forecasting on La Nina/El Nino is based on trends.
La Nina is a response to a decrease in global warming [clouds increase/ sun decrease?]
which to date is not predictable in advance.
Trend forecasting is going with the flow statistics, not science based underlying mechanics of the heat into and out of the system.

Consequently it can change abruptly if it wishes.
The trend at the moment is in a generally upward direction [for La Nina] so the forecasts are that way.

One can only hope and wish.
The El Nino 3 years ago was well forecast but had two or 3 false starts before it got going.
The ensemble at BOM shows massive differences between the 7 forecasts.
True spaghetti.

angech
Reply to  angech
October 2, 2021 6:59 pm

Bellman*
“I mentioned September because it’s the subject of this blog post. I never said this month was news worthy. Just that it’s a counterpart to the it was cold in Japan in this post.”
“Meanwhile globally we’ve had the 6th warmest September in 42 years according to UAH.”

Lets be clear on why you mentioned UAH September.
Its because it just came out and you do not have a lot of other September ratings out yet or you would have used them.

There will always be areas of unusual warmth or cold around the world.
You can divide them up into daily monthly or yearly if you choose.
Daily gives you the advantage of 365 days in a year to choose one of 40,000 weather stations of variable length of recordings to find a new high or low at.

When there is a warming trend you will always have more highs than lows somewhere.
It is nice to see a large area for a long length of time showing a new cooling spell.

Where does this year rank in the UAH record?
Where will it rank at the end of the year?
No high records being set or likely to be set this year so definitely against the mantra of catastrophic warming.
What a shame.

TheFinalNail
Reply to  angech
October 2, 2021 11:38 pm

Nobody, as far as I’m aware, was expecting a lower troposphere data set to be setting new monthly high temperature records when we’re just coming out of a relatively strong La Nina. The fact that UAH has published 3 consecutive top-ten warmest monthly temperatures since July is remarkable, given recent ENSO conditions. It doesn’t bode well for what could happen during the next El Nino.

Last edited 1 month ago by TheFinalNail
Mike
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 2, 2021 11:53 pm

”The fact that UAH has published 3 consecutive top-ten warmest monthly temperatures since July is remarkable”

The only thing remarkable is your never-ending moronosity

Last edited 1 month ago by Mike
Editor
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 3, 2021 8:02 am

And there is some scientific value in there somewhere?

Jim Gorman
Reply to  TheFinalNail
October 4, 2021 4:28 am

You do realize that UAH’s dataset is only for a short time length right? I mean it does not contain warming from the 1930’s or cooling from the 1970’s. It hasn’t been proven to me to even measure the same thing as atmospheric surface temperatures that are measured about six feet above the surface. It could easily have an offset from the other databases of only a few tenths of a degree and should not be appended to an existing record.

pekke
October 2, 2021 6:46 pm

Sweden coolder or normal last 30 years.
https://www.smhi.se/data/meteorologi/kartor/karta/foregaende-manad/temperatur/

30 year before coolder, but years 1931 – 1960 can not compere in SMHI data base !?

pekke
Reply to  pekke
October 2, 2021 6:51 pm

SWeden autum coolder this year ….

Dennis
October 2, 2021 7:10 pm

I live on the mid north coast of New South Wales Australia and during this past winter I have used more firewood in my wood heater than in the past few years.

There has been light snowfalls on the hills to the west (Great Dividing Range).

Ireneusz Palmowski
October 3, 2021 2:53 am

The very low temperature of the Peruvian Current. comment image
Niño 3.4 could drop well below -1 C in November.comment image
The Peruvian Current is surface-based, so melting Antarctic ice will bring more cold water toward the equator.
The subsurface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is now low in both the central and western Pacific. La Niña could be very long.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2021&month=10

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
October 3, 2021 3:02 am

There will be more rain in Australia and the Amazon, unfortunately a severe drought in California.
 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Sara
October 3, 2021 5:21 am

You guys keep blowing holes in the smoke screen setup that the Ecohippies and Greenbeaners have concocted.

Keep it up.

I’ve tracked my local weather for a very long time and this is (to date) the coolest summer I’ve recorded in 20 years, with only a few days of real hot summer weather. Started up the furnace on September 1st this year, earliest ever. Something’s going on.

If only those sad people who don’t understand natural cycles could figure out the real world.

Editor
Reply to  Sara
October 3, 2021 8:09 am

People get caught up with global averages which is why they fail to see REGIONAL and LOCAL weather trends.

In my area it was below average precipitation and slightly below average temperature until the massive heatwave showed up in late June and early July then back to near average ever since and still drier than usual.

This means that after 9 full months it was definitely warmer than usual in just a short 10 day period, the rest of the year the usual temperature range that would be considered average.

Now I am facing the prospect of a cooler winter than usual which means I am going to do some new weather proofing of windows to greatly reduce heat loss and replace the gaskets in the front door to stop the inflow of cold air.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sunsettommy
Bellman
October 3, 2021 5:15 pm

Speaking of uncertainty, I notice the JMA data for Tokyo is marked with a red line in December 2014, which indicates “data inhomogeneity caused by changes in instrumentation, observation methods and/or site location.”

Other nearby stations, such as Yokohama and Chiba do not have this September as coldest since 1988.

John Phillips
Reply to  Bellman
October 4, 2021 4:22 am

Indeed. And BEST has Tokyo warming faster than the global average.

Japan is known for its cherry blossom, and the Hellers for their love of cherries.

http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/156164

Wharfplank
October 4, 2021 7:28 am

So I guess at this point conservatives should be supporting ALL sites that are documenting the fraud along with the names of the perps that can be held responsible for the greatest example of brainwashing Earth has ever seen. The TRILLIONS that will be wasted, lives upended and billions of humans thrown into an 1870’s existence will have to have their revenge somehow. Leftism is a disease…

spock
October 6, 2021 3:52 am

I live in Tokyo I can attest to the fact this has been by far the coolest summer in living memory. Where are the climate cluckers to explain that? Also, we have had very few typhoons. Did Uncle Joe Biden “feel that in his bones”?

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