IPCC Model Scenarios Compared To Actual Measured Temperatures

In an effort to hold the IPCC accountable, I have compared actual measured temperatures with two of their scenarios from the AR4 report in 2007. The B1 and A2 scenarios.…

Can Arctic warming (be) linked to colder winters?

The causes of the extreme winter weather in the USA remain unknown, apart from the obvious reason: the Polar Vortex. The reasons put forward in the above Nature paper are…

Warming and Drying part 2 Natural Cycles, Climate see-saws and failed models

Natural cycles like the Madden Julian Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation cause regions of rising moist air and precipitation varying with regions of sinking cloudless dry air that…

New Confirmation that Climate Models Overstate Atmospheric Warming

Two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

Fussing Over One Degree of Simulation

Allowing some historical perspective shows that the IPCC is wrong to label the recent temperature changes ‘unprecedented’. They are not unusual in magnitude, direction or rate of change, which should…

Why the IPCC focuses on the scenarios that it does

It is more than a little silly to have a breathlessly-awaited, embargoed report presenting analysis of out-of-date scenarios, but here we are!

How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality

A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future.

GHGs, California, and the EPA: a golden braid of off-the-rails

The unavoidable conclusions are that the SAFE Vehicle Rule serves no ameliorative purpose because the EPA CO2 endangerment finding has no scientific merit.

Claim: Machine Learning can Detect Anthropogenic Climate Change

According to the big computer we are doomed to suffer ever more damaging weather extremes. But researchers can’t tell us exactly why, because their black box neural net won’t explain…

CMIP6 ECS

It is apparent that those who believe in anthropogenic global warming do not understand the intractable fundamental problem with their climate model approach. They are digging themselves a deeper hole.…

Climate Models: Worse Than Nothing?

Climate modeling has arguably been worse than nothing because false information has been presented as true and “consensus.” Alarmism and disruptive policy activism (forced substitution of inferior energies; challenges to…

Models In Turmoil: Underestimation Of Satellite-Based Cloud-Aerosol Interaction “Hampering Climate Change Projections”

By acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus can alter cloud properties and precipitation. This influences the Earth’s radiation budget and hence climate…

Climate models fail in key test region

The researchers found that when compared to observations, almost every CMIP5 model fails, no matter whether the multidecadal variability is assumed to be forced or internal. They also found institutional…

GEOCARBSULF

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new open access paper in Nature Magazine, entitled “A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations“, by Wong et…

“Major Scientific Breakthrough”…Scientists “Step Closer To Predicting North Atlantic Climate”

A team of scientists believe they’ve made a forecasting breakthrough, suggesting the NAO is in fact highly predictable.

The temperature–CO2 climate connection: an epistemological reappraisal of ice-core messages

From History of Geo-and Space Sciences Hist. Geo Space. Sci., 12, 97–110, 2021https://doi.org/10.5194/hgss-12-97-2021© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed underthe Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The temperature–CO2 climate connection: an epistemological…

Modeling Unreality

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the comments to a previous post of mine, Bob Wentworth made an interesting point. He said that it’s not enough to propound my new…

Thunderstorm World: A Model to Explore Ideas from Willis Eschenbach

I’ve been thinking about some ideas that WUWT contributor Willis Eschenbach (WE) has proposed. In particular, WE has suggested that tropical cumulus clouds and thunderstorms provide a “thermostatic mechanism” that…

New NASA Data Sheds (Sun) Light on Climate Models

The team found that the TSIS-1 data had more energy present in visible light wavelengths and less in the near-infrared wavelengths compared to the older SORCE reconstruction. These differences meant…

An Earth Day Reminder: “Global Warming” is Only ~50% of What Models Predict

The claim by the Biden Administration that climate change has placed us in a moment of “profound crisis” ignores the fact that the energy policy changes being promoted are based…

Current climate model simulations overestimate future sea-level rise

The current climate model simulations, which do not take ocean eddies into account, project that the ocean temperatures around Antarctica are increasing under climate change. The new high-resolution simulation shows…

$10 Million AI Grant to Improve Climate Modelling of Clouds

A Team of Scientists plans to use AI to improve climate modelling of sub-grid scale phenomena such as turbulence and clouds. But there is no reason to think an AI…

The Problem with Climate Models

So it may well be, no, it is likely that once the underlying physics is properly understood, climate models will emerge that produce an ECS value considerably smaller than 1.8C.…

There Are Models And There Are Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’m 74, and I’ve been programming computers nearly as long as anyone alive.  When I was 15, I’d been reading about computers in pulp science…