Climate Modellers Waiting for Observations to Catch Up with Their Predictions

Guest essay by Eric Worrall h/t Dr. Willie Soon; In climate science, when your model predictions are wrong, you wait for the world to correct itself. New climate models predict a warming surgeBy Paul VoosenApr. 16, 2019 , 3:55 PM For nearly 40 years, the massive computer models used to simulate global climate have delivered a…

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A Simple Model of the Atmospheric CO2 Budget

Reposted from Dr Roy Spencer’s blog April 11th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. SUMMARY: A simple model of the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere is presented which fairly accurately reproduces the Mauna Loa observations 1959 through 2018. The model assumes the surface removes CO2 at a rate proportional to the excess of atmospheric…

Why climate predictions are so difficult

From Climate Etc. by Judith Curry An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens. Frank Bosse provided this Google translation of an interview published in Der Spiegel  -Print-Issue 13/2019, p. 99-101.   March 22, 2019 Excerpts provided below, with some minor editing of the translation. begin quote: Global warming forecasts are still surprisingly inaccurate. Supercomputers and artificial intelligence…

Predicting climate change

Understanding carbon cycle feedbacks to predict climate change at large scale From ETH Zurich Thomas Crowther identifies long-disappeared forests available for restoration across the world. He will describe how there is room for an additional 1.2 trillion new trees around the world that could absorb more carbon than human emissions each year. Crowther also describes…

Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century

I guess sometimes you just have to throw the officially acknowledged lack of regional skill for GCM’s out the window~ctm From Nature Communications Abstract A major challenge in articulating human dimensions of climate change lies in translating global climate forecasts into impact assessments that are intuitive to the public. Climate-analog mapping involves matching the expected…

Global Mean Surface Temperature: Early 20th Century Warming Period – Models versus Models & Models versus Data

A Guest Post By Bob Tisdale This is a long post: 3500+ words and 22 illustrations. Regardless, heretics of the church of human-induced global warming who frequent this blog should enjoy it. Additionally, I’ve uncovered something about the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive that I hadn’t heard mentioned or seen presented before. It…

Reassessing the RCPs

From Judith Curry’s Climate Etc Posted on January 28, 2019 by curryja | by Kevin Murphy A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those made in…