Climate models fail in key test region

The researchers found that when compared to observations, almost every CMIP5 model fails, no matter whether the multidecadal variability is assumed to be forced or internal. They also found institutional…

GEOCARBSULF

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new open access paper in Nature Magazine, entitled “A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations“, by Wong et…

“Major Scientific Breakthrough”…Scientists “Step Closer To Predicting North Atlantic Climate”

A team of scientists believe they’ve made a forecasting breakthrough, suggesting the NAO is in fact highly predictable.

The temperature–CO2 climate connection: an epistemological reappraisal of ice-core messages

From History of Geo-and Space Sciences Hist. Geo Space. Sci., 12, 97–110, 2021https://doi.org/10.5194/hgss-12-97-2021© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed underthe Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The temperature–CO2 climate connection: an epistemological…

Modeling Unreality

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the comments to a previous post of mine, Bob Wentworth made an interesting point. He said that it’s not enough to propound my new…

Thunderstorm World: A Model to Explore Ideas from Willis Eschenbach

I’ve been thinking about some ideas that WUWT contributor Willis Eschenbach (WE) has proposed. In particular, WE has suggested that tropical cumulus clouds and thunderstorms provide a “thermostatic mechanism” that…

New NASA Data Sheds (Sun) Light on Climate Models

The team found that the TSIS-1 data had more energy present in visible light wavelengths and less in the near-infrared wavelengths compared to the older SORCE reconstruction. These differences meant…

An Earth Day Reminder: “Global Warming” is Only ~50% of What Models Predict

The claim by the Biden Administration that climate change has placed us in a moment of “profound crisis” ignores the fact that the energy policy changes being promoted are based…

Current climate model simulations overestimate future sea-level rise

The current climate model simulations, which do not take ocean eddies into account, project that the ocean temperatures around Antarctica are increasing under climate change. The new high-resolution simulation shows…

$10 Million AI Grant to Improve Climate Modelling of Clouds

A Team of Scientists plans to use AI to improve climate modelling of sub-grid scale phenomena such as turbulence and clouds. But there is no reason to think an AI…

The Problem with Climate Models

So it may well be, no, it is likely that once the underlying physics is properly understood, climate models will emerge that produce an ECS value considerably smaller than 1.8C.…

There Are Models And There Are Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’m 74, and I’ve been programming computers nearly as long as anyone alive.  When I was 15, I’d been reading about computers in pulp science…

Compensation between cloud feedback + ECS and aerosol-cloud forcing in CMIP6 models

The new open-access paper – the senior author of which, Gabriel Vecchi, is a well known professor of geosciences at Princeton University – provides further evidence that high ECS CMIP6…

Junk Grade Models: Even Short-Term Climate And Weather Modelers Get It All Wrong

Reposted from NoTricksZone By P Gosselin on 19. February 2021 Many climate policies are based on scenarios generated by models. Depending what these models churn out, actions and costly regulations get enacted to…

Here comes the new generation of climate models: the future of rainfall in the Alps

Next generation climate models are developed and applied by the CMCC Foundation in several international projects and contexts. Some examples include the study of urban heatwaves and the evolution of…

Climate Model Failure

By Andy May On January 22, 2021, John Christy presented a new online talk to the Irish Climate Science Forum. The talk was arranged by Jim O’Brien. A summary of…

Meet The Team Shaking Up Climate Models

They have gathered some of the brightest experts from around the world to start to build a new, modern climate model. They hope to corral the vast flow of data…

Canada is Warming at Only 1/2 the Rate of Climate Model Simulations

Canada has huge year-to-year variability in temperatures due to its strong continental climate. So, to examine how observed surface temperature trends compare to climate model simulations, you need many of…

Committed warming and the pattern effect

Zhou et al.’s estimate of committed warming (future warming with forcing remaining unchanged) follows fairly directly from their estimate of the pattern effect, if one accepts their bases and assumptions.…

UCI researchers: Climate change will alter the position of the Earth’s tropical rain belt

Future climate change will cause a regionally uneven shifting of the tropical rain belt – a narrow band of heavy precipitation near the equator – according to researchers at the…

The Rational Climate e-Book

By Andy May Patrice Poyet has just published a new 431-page eBook entitled, The Rational Climate e-Book, it is free to download here. Dr. Poyet studied geochemistry, remote sensing, and…

UW Researchers Find Wildfire Smoke is More Cooling on Climate Than Computer Models Assume

A study of biomass burning aerosols led by University of Wyoming researchers revealed that smoke from wildfires has more of a cooling effect on the atmosphere than computer models assume.

Inside The Bayesian Priory

Anyone who thinks that a description of reality is only worthwhile if it matches the output of absurdly simplistic climate models is not worth my time to investigate.

Study: Dangerous Global Warming Could Occur by 2027

We laughed when Alexandria Occasio Cortez claimed that the world would end in 12 years. According to a new climate study, AOC is an optimist; we might only have seven…