Do Models Run Hot Or Not? A Process Control View

Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction This short essay was prompted by a recent article regarding improvements to uncertainty in a global mean temperature estimate.[1] However, much bandwidth has been spilt lately in the related topic of error propagation [2, 3, 4], and so a small portion of this essay in its concluding remarks is…

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A Stove Top Analogy to Climate Models

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog September 13th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Have you ever wondered, “How can we predict global average temperature change when we don’t even know what the global average temperature is?” Or maybe, “How can climate models produce any meaningful forecasts when they have such large errors in…

IMAGE: Leverett Glacier - SW Greenland Ice Sheet - vast volumes of meltwater and associated carbon and nutrient are exported from ice sheets every year during melt. Credit: Dr Stefan Hofer

Ice sheets impact core elements of the Earth’s carbon cycle

University of Bristol The Earth’s carbon cycle is crucial in controlling the greenhouse gas content of our atmosphere, and ultimately our climate. Ice sheets which cover about 10 percent of our Earth’s land surface at present, were thought 20 years ago to be frozen wastelands, devoid of life and with supressed chemical weathering – irrelevant…

Icebergs delay Southern Hemisphere future warming

Institute for Basic Science New research, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, has found that Antarctic icebergs can weaken and delay the effect of Global Warming in the Southern Hemisphere. Unabated Global Warming threatens the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. Recent observations reveal a rapid thinning of the Pine Island and Thwaites…

Persistent plume

Analysis of massive 2017 cloud of wildfire smoke will help calibrate climate models, including modeling of nuclear winter, geoengineering University of Colorado at Boulder Thunderstorms generated by a group of giant wildfires in 2017 injected a small volcano’s worth of aerosol into the stratosphere, creating a smoke plume that lasted for almost nine months. CIRES…