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Quicky October 2016 ENSO Update

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale Weekly NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies from NOAA Are Approaching the Threshold of a Moderately Strong La Niña.  Australia’s Southern Oscillation Index from BOM is in La Niña values.  And NOAA’s Multivariate ENSO Index is Still in ENSO Neutral Territory. NOAA’S WEEKLY NINO3.4 REGION SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES   NOAA’s…

Obligatory cracked Earth image from California drought, 2014

Claim: ‘greenhouse gases could extend California drought for centuries’

From the UCLA Newsroom: Pacific Ocean’s response to greenhouse gases could extend California drought for centuries Warming forces have caused millennia of dryness in California’s prehistory, and greenhouses gases could do the same Clues from prehistoric droughts and arid periods in California show that today’s increasing greenhouse gas levels could lock the state into drought…

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NASA predicts a ‘return to normal’ in ENSO conditions

After Strong El Niño Winter, NASA Model Sees Return to Normal Not too hot, not too cold – instead, water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean should be just around normal for the rest of 2016, according to forecasts from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, or GMAO. With these neutral conditions, scientists with the…

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NOAA Cancels La Niña Watch While La Niña Conditions Exist

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale La Niña conditions are typically defined by NOAA as sea surface temperature anomalies less than or equal to -0.5 deg C for the NINO3.4 region of the east/central equatorial Pacific. The NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly for the week of August 31, 2016 from NOAA’s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices…

Rain over California’s Owen’s Valley in early May 2016. The 2015–2016 El Niño, which officially ended in late May, was one of the strongest El Niños on record. Although predicted to bring heavy rainfall to California, new research shows El Niño’s rains were not enough to ease California’s ongoing drought. Credit: Dustin Blakey, CC BY-NC 2.0

New research shows that California’s Sierra Nevada snowpack will likely not recover from the current drought until 2019

By Lauren Lipuma, Contributing Writer, EOS The unprecedented drought that has gripped the Southwest United States has severely depleted the Sierra Nevada snowpack, the major source of water for drinking and farming in California. Researchers and water managers thought this past winter’s monster El Niño would bring enough rainfall to help ease the strain on water…

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Say Hello to La Niña Conditions

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale A quick ENSO update. Meteorological agencies like NOAA use the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region (5S-5N, 170W-120W) of the equatorial Pacific to determine if the tropical Pacific is experiencing El Niño, La Niña or ENSO neutral (not El Niño, not La Niña) conditions. Other agencies use the…