There’s an information war on the recent Antarctic sea ice records
Guest essay by Frank Lansner
Today Cryosphere reports 2,112 million km2 more sea ice around Antarctica than normal.
Reality is that we right now have an area matching the size of Greenland of extra sea ice floating around Antarctica. The nightmare for the global warming believers is if the growing ice around Antarctica should be linked to cooling, and so: Continue reading
UPDATE (July 2, 2014): See the correction at the end of the post.
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This post was prepared in anticipation of the usual nonsense we hear whenever a tropical storm or hurricane forms and is expected to strike the U.S. The map to the right (Map 1) presents the weekly sea surface temperatures (not anomalies) for the Eastern U.S. Coastal Waters from Florida to Massachusetts (26N-42N, 82W-70W), for the week centered on Wednesday June 25,2014. (Please click the map to enlarge it.) Seasonally warmed sea surface temperatures from the east coast of Florida northwards to North Carolina are well above the 26 deg C (79 deg F) value needed to generate and maintain tropical storms and hurricanes.
Before we look at the recent sea surface temperature anomalies, let examine longer-term data to put it in context.
In a statement to Polifact today, NCDC made the following statement:
“… our algorithm is working as designed”
One wonders though, about these sorts of things that have been found wrong in their data file for USHCN, which is represented to the public as “high quality”.
Here are few other things that worked as designed:
The NCDC press office sent an official response to Politifact, which is below.
The NCDC has not responded to me personally, I only got this by asking around.
I’ve provided it without comment. Continue reading
As we mentioned yesterday, Tropical Storm Arthur is likely to become hurricane Arthur and threaten the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the Fourth of July, one of the busiest holidays there. A potential nightmare scenario.
NASA’s Earth Data page is great resource to get hi resolution satellite imagery from. This one shows how Arthur, off the coast of South Florida is becoming more organized.
UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2014: +0.30 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2014 is +0.30 deg. C, down slightly from May (click for full size version): Continue reading
Guest essay by Jim Steele,
Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism
Two recent press releases concerning the Emperor Penguin’s fate illustrate contrasting forces that will either advance or suppress trustworthy conservation science. The first study reminds me of Mark Twain’s quip, “Education consists mainly in what we have unlearned.” Embodying that truism is a paper by lead author Dr. Michelle LaRue who reports new advances in reading the Emperor Penguin’s fecal stains on Antarctic sea ice that are visible in satellite pictures. Two years ago the fecal stain method identified several large, hitherto unknown colonies and nearly doubled our estimate of the world’s Emperor Penguins.1,2 That didn’t mean climate change had necessarily increased penguin numbers, but a larger more robust population meant Emperor Penguins were far more resilient to any form of change. Continue reading
Because warm weather isn’t deadly enough
Submitted by Eric Worrall
The Federalist has a hilarious article, which discusses Hollywood’s big problem portraying Global Warming; its hard to make a nice day look deadly.
Citing several recent films as examples, they make a really good point. I mean, can anyone think of a Hollywood global warming film which didn’t end in a snowstorm?
From the article: Continue reading
Yesterday, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) published a post about a number of mistaken beliefs about El Niño and La Niña events.
Misconceptions discussed: Continue reading
Researchers the world over almost unanimously agree that our climate is changing … But many farmers – at least Swedish ones – have experienced mild winters and shifting weather before and are hesitant about trusting the scientists.
The researcher who discovered the degree of scepticism among farmers was surprised by her findings. Therese Asplund, who led the study, was initially looking into how agricultural magazines covered climate change, but got a lesson in reality from swedish famers.
UPDATE: Latest GFDL model output suggests Bastardi could be right, see below.
UPDATE2: New information from Bastardi here shows 4th of July nightmare is shaping up to be true.
The Case for Rapid Development Feedback of a Potential Tropical Storm: Arthur.
NASA Satellite image of the disturbance off the east coast of Florida at 8:40am.
Guest essay by Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell Analytics.
In the old days, one never had to worry about anything but hitting the forecast. But times have changed. With an agenda out there to take any weather event that attracts attention and turn into into a reason that an AGW driven atmospheric apocalypse is upon us, one has to make sure the physical grounds are stated before hand for why the event can occur.
We are faced with a potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend. I already have this as an 80 knot storm by July 4th, right on top of the North Carolina coast. That represents the mid ground of a fear this can be stronger. The post Sunday on Weatherbell.com on this outlined why. To refresh your memory, a look at the ECMWF 200 mb pattern Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, indicates why this can deepen so much, and as a matter of fact is in a prime area to do so.
From Princeton University
With climate change, heat more than natural disasters will drive people away
Although scenes of people fleeing from dramatic displays of Mother Nature’s power dominate the news, gradual increases in an area’s overall temperature — and to a lesser extent precipitation — actually lead more often to permanent population shifts, according to Princeton University research. Continue reading
From the National Science Foundation: Press Release 14-081
Ancient ocean currents may have changed pace and intensity of ice ages
Climate scientists have long tried to explain why ice-age cycles became longer and more intense some 900,000 years ago, switching from 41,000-year cycles to 100,000-year cycles.
Over the weekend Dr. Roger Pielke Junior let it be known on his Twitter feed that he’s had it up to his “keester” with certain climate activists, especially the ones that are harassing a former associate of his, simply because that person IS a former associate.
It’s pretty ugly and it underscores how climate zealotry has gotten out of control. I myself have been at the receiving end of some of this to the point where I have had to increase security at my home and at my business. Continue reading
Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball
“Liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right, from the frame of their nature, to knowledge, as their great Creator, who does nothing in vain, has given them understandings, and a desire to know; but besides this, they have a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to that most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge; I mean, of the characters and conduct of their rulers.” — John Adams, Dissertation on Canon and Feudal Law, 1765
The 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report included evidence in the form of a “hockey stick” graph, showing that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) did not exist. Less prominent, but just as wrong, was erasure of the Little Ice Age (LIA). Proponents of the IPCC hypothesis that human CO2 is causing global warming were mainly connected with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. Leaked CRU emails, beginning with 1000 in late 2009, exposed the corruption of climate science of the IPCC. CRU people controlled critical portions of IPCC Working Group I. They set up procedures to control the peer-review process, control data, and attack any who challenged, especially if it was with contradictory evidence.
The Week That Was: 2014-06-28 (June 28, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “I mean, I’m not a scientist either, but I’ve got this guy, John Holdren, he’s a scientist,” Obama added to laughter. “I’ve got a bunch of scientists at NASA [GISS] and I’ve got a bunch of scientists at EPA.” [H/t Judith Curry]
Two years ago during the scorching summer of 2012, July 1936 lost its place on the leaderboard and July 2012 became the hottest month on record in the United States. Now, as if by magic, and according to NOAA’s own data, July 1936 is now the hottest month on record again. The past, present, and future all seems to be “adjustable” in NOAA’s world. See the examples below.
Josh has been busy again and writes at Bishop Hill with a new cartoon:
The temperature adjustments story has been brewing for weeks principally due to the many posts at ‘RealScience’ but taken up by others, for example, Paul Homewood, see here and here. Judith Curry has a great post about it here, as does Anthony here.
The sea ice surrounding Antarctica, which, as I reported in my book, has been steadily increasing throughout the period of satellite measurement that began in 1979, has hit a new all-time record high for areal coverage.
The new record anomaly for Southern Hemisphere sea ice, the ice encircling the southernmost continent, is 2.074 million square kilometers and was posted for the first time by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign’s The Cryosphere Today early Sunday morning. Continue reading
Approves Asia Supply Route, Ignores US Route
H/T Eric Worrall and Breitbart – Obama’s inability to make a decision on Keystone has finally yielded a result – Canada has made the decision for him.
Breitbart reports Canada has just approved the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project – a major pipeline to ship Canadian oil to Asia.
The Canadian oil will still be burnt – in Asia, instead of America. Continue reading
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
In an insightful post at WUWT by Bob Dedekind, he talked about a problem with temperature adjustments. He pointed out that the stations are maintained, by doing things like periodically cutting back the trees that are encroaching, or by painting the Stevenson Screen. He noted that that if we try to “homogenize” these stations, we get an erroneous result. This led me to a consideration about the “scalpel method” used by the Berkeley Earth folks to correct discontinuities in the temperature record.
Temperature is such a simple finite thing. It is amazing how complex people can make it.
Sometimes, you can believe you are entirely right while simultaneously believing that you’ve done due diligence. That’s what confirmation bias is all about. In this case, a whole bunch of people, including me, got a severe case of it.
I’m talking about the claim made by Steve Goddard that 40% of the USHCN data is “fabricated”. which I and few other people thought was clearly wrong.
Dr. Judith Curry and I have been conversing a lot via email over the past two days, and she has written an illuminating essay that explores the issue raised by Goddard and the sociology going on. See her essay: Continue reading
There is a grweat editorial in the Columbus Dispatch by Jay Amrose about the abuse of the legal system by Michael E. Mann and his legal actions to try to stifle debate. More on that below, but first, the history of Mann in the context of debate.
Michael Mann once famously said that ‘robust debate’ was a good thing in science:
Source: [ https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/139734953742188546 ]
Also from Dr. Mann’s Twitter feed, he declares that ‘robust debate’ is only good when it’s not with a “denier” scientist or on a network he doesn’t like. Continue reading
Guest essay by David Archibald
A couple of years ago the question was asked “When will it start cooling?” Of course solar denialists misconstrued this innocent enquiry. There is no doubt – we all know that lower solar irradiance will result in lower temperatures on this planet. It is a question of when. Solar activity is much lower than it was at a similar stage of the last solar cycle but Earthly temperatures have remained stubbornly flat. Nobody is happy with this situation. All 50 of the IPCC climate models have now been invalidated and my own model is looking iffy.
This story from the Hockey Schtick is a verification of an analysis on WUWT from Bob Tisdale: No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets
According to a paper published today in Atmospheric Science Letters, global precipitation has either decreased, increased, or not changed over the past 30 years, depending upon which of 3 global datasets are examined: Continue reading
Following the first official day of summer, many areas in the United States are approaching their highest temperatures for the year. To give you a better idea of the warmest time of year for your area, NCDC has created a new “Warmest Day of the Year” map for the contiguous United States. The map is derived from the 1981–2010 U.S. Climate Normals, NCDC’s 30-year averages of climatological variables including the average high temperature for every day. From these values scientists can identify which day of the year, on average, has the highest maximum temperature, referred to here as the “warmest day.” Continue reading
Guest Post by Barry Woods
I was invited several months ago, to contribute to a collection of essays and narratives about what sort of story is climate change. The book - Culture and Climate Change: Narratives - edited by Joe Smith, Renata Tyszczuk and Robert Butler, it was launched on the 24th June 2014. I originally submitted a rather long essay, and with some careful editing reduced it to the ~ 800 word limit (a big thank you to Hannah/Casper for their patience and help) .
Please take a look at all the contributions, some here might consider mine a rather lone voice, but I am glad to be included, and it is probably all the better for being tightly edited. Looking back now, I may have been experiencing mild ‘Climate Burnout’ when I wrote it. An extended revised version of my original submission is below, I called it:
The Science Was Settled Enough Continue reading
Steve Milloy writes:
Hillary Clinton endorsed the Obama climate plan and slammed coal industry in speech at the BIO conference this week. Clinton also hit the media for giving air time to skeptics.
From Royal Holloway, University of London
New research published today (Friday 27th June 2014) in the journal Nature Scientific Reports has provided a major new theory on the cause of the ice age that covered large parts of the Northern Hemisphere 2.6 million years ago.
The study, co-authored by Dr Thomas Stevens, from the Department of Geography at Royal Holloway, University of London, found a previously unknown mechanism by which the joining of North and South America changed the salinity of the Pacific Ocean and caused major ice sheet growth across the Northern Hemisphere.
Guest essay by Caleb Shaw
One sign of healthy skepticism is that you take things with a grain of salt, but there is a problem inherent in having this attitude, namely “disrespect.” We are suppose to respect our elders and teachers, and I can’t say my skepticism has always led to such respect.
Guest essay by Jim Steele,
Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism
In part one, I wrote “In the simplest of terms, every study that has attributed the recent warming of the 1980s and 90s to rising CO2 has been based on the difference between their models’ reconstruction of “natural climate change” with their models’ output of “natural climate change plus CO2.” However the persistent failure of their models to reproduce how “natural climate changed before,” means any attribution of warming due to CO2 is at best unreliable and at worse a graphic fairy tale.”
In part one of this essay which you can see here, I got quite a lot of feedback on both sides of the climate debate. Some people thought that I was spot on with criticisms while others thought I had sold my soul to the devil of climate change. It is an interesting life when I am accused of being in cahoots with both “big oil” and “big climate” at the same time. That aside, in this part of the essay I am going to focus on areas of agreement and disagreement and propose a solution.
In part one of the essay we focus on the methodology that was used that created a hockey stick style graph illustrating missing data. Due to the missing data causing a faulty spike at the end, Steve McIntyre commented, suggesting that it was more like the Marcott hockey stick than it was like Mann’s: Continue reading
Climate Reparations—A New Demand
Guest opinion by Peter Wood
At the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in December 2009, leaders from more than a hundred nations gathered to consider an agenda that included a massive transfer of money from developed countries to the Third World. The developed states were tagged to provide $130 billion by 2020 to help developing nations deal with the consequences of global warming. The proposed transfer was widely discussed as “reparations” for the damage caused by use of fossil fuels in the developed world.
Josh has a nice travel sticker for suitcases to offset this stupidity. From the National Post:
One of Greenpeace’s most senior executives commutes 400 kilometres each way to work by plane, the environmental group has admitted.
One volunteer described the arrangement as “almost unbelievable.” Another said they would cancel their direct debit donation following a series of disclosures about financial mismanagement in documents leaked to The Guardian newspaper.
Former US vice president Al Gore (left) joined Clive Palmer to announce PUP’s plan to repeal the carbon tax. (Credit: AAP)
How A Coal Baron Fooled Al Gore And The Greens
Andrew Bolt Herald Sun, 26 June 2014
What the hell was Al Gore doing at Palmer’s press conference? Why did the great global warming guru help to sanctify a press conference called by a coal baron to announce the destruction of Australia’s climate change policies?
AUSTRALIA will be left without a major scheme to cut greenhouse gas emissions after Clive Palmer last night backed the repeal of the carbon tax without supporting any concrete alternative… Continue reading
From the European Commission Joint Research Centre
New study quantifies the effects of climate change in Europe
If no further action is taken and global temperature increases by 3.5°C, climate damages in the EU could amount to at least €190 billion, a net welfare loss of 1.8% of its current GDP. Several weather-related extremes could roughly double their average frequency. As a consequence, heat-related deaths could reach about 200 000, the cost of river flood damages could exceed €10 billion and 8000 km2 of forest could burn in southern Europe. The number of people affected by droughts could increase by a factor of seven and coastal damage, due to sea-level rise, could more than triple. These economic assessments are based on scenarios where the climate expected by the end of the century (2080s) occurs in the current population and economic landscape. Continue reading