Another paper showing evidence of a solar signature in temperature records

1 07 2009

Readers may find the title familiar, that’s because Basil Copeland and I also did a paper looking at solar signatures in climatic data, which has received a lot of criticism because we made an analytical error in our attempt. But errors are useful, teachable moments, even if they are embarrassing, and our second attempt though, titled,

Evidence of a Lunisolar Influence on Decadal and Bidecadal Oscillations In Globally Averaged Temperature Trends

hasn’t been significantly challenged yet that I am aware of. Basil and I welcome any comments or suggestions on that work.

In our work, we used Hodrick-Prescott filtering to extract the solar cycle signal from the HadCRUT temperature dataset. In this paper the data are extracted from the ECA&ECD database (available via http://eca.knmi.nl ).  According to the paper, they are “using a nonlinear technique of analysis developed for time series whose complexity arises from interactions between different sources over different time scales”. Read more about it in the paper. In both our paper, and in this one, a solar signature is evident in the temperature data.  – Anthony

Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature

By Jean-Louis Le Mouel, Vincent Courtillot, Elena Blanter, Mikhail Shnirman (PDF available here)

J.-L. Le Mouël et al., Evidence for a solar signature in 20th-century temperature data from the USA and Europe, C. R. Geoscience (2008), doi:10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.001

solar-temp-world-regions

Click for a larger image - Comparison of the mean squared interannual variation (left column) and lifetime (right column) of the overall minimum temperature data from the US (153 stations), Australia (preliminary, 5 stations) and Europe (44 stations). Europe (bottom row) is shown for the two types of calculation for quick comparison (green curves), and also the magnetic index representing solar activity (blue curve).

Abstract

Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : Science, climate data, weather_stations

McIntyre on USHCN2’s “warmer” trend treatment of Orland

30 06 2009

Orland CA and the New Adjustments

by Steve McIntyre on June 29th, 2009

In my last post, I observed that NOAA’s Talking Points applied their new “adjustments” to supposedly prove that NOAA’s negligent administration of the USHCN network did not “matter”.

In order to illustrate the effect of the new methods in this post, I’ll compare the new adjustments (post-TOBS) to the old adjustments (post-TOBS) on a “good” station – Orland CA, a prototype “good” station, discussed at the outset of surfacestations.org, discussed at WUWT here and CA here in early 2007.

The station history for Orland (at CDIAC) says that it has been in its present location for (at least) most of the 20th century and has had minimal changes during that time, other than perhaps time-of-observation (TOBS). The TOBS adjustment is carried forward into USHCN-v2. As I understand it, NOAA’s New Adjustment Method replaces station-history based adjustments for instrumentation changes and station location (the latter formerly done in FILNET).

As a benchmark, here is the difference between FILNET (adjusted) and TOBS for Orland in the “old” USHCN. Adjustments in the 20th century are negligible – in keeping with station history information that indicates no changes in location. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 36 Comments »

Categories : climate data, weather_stations

McIntyre on the NCDC Talking Points Memo

29 06 2009

Foreword: I give thanks to Steve McIntyre for this analysis. Steve came to a conclusion similar to what I alluded to in my initial rebuttal where I said:

“For all I know, they could be comparing homogenized data from CRN1 and 2 (best stations) to homogenized data from CRN 345 (the worst stations), which of course would show nearly no difference.“

Steve does a superb job of deconstructing the memo’s undocumented results. Perhaps someday Dr. Thomas Peterson of NCDC will tell us how he did his analysis and show supporting data and methods. – Anthony

The Talking Points Memo

by Steve McIntyre reposted from Climate Audit

The NOAA Talking Points memo falls well short of a “full, true and plain disclosure” standard – aside from the failure to appropriately credit Watts (2009).

They presented the following graphic that purported to show that NOAA’s negligent administration of the USHCN station network did not “matter”, describing the stations as follows:

Two national time series were made using the same gridding and area averaging technique. One analysis was for the full data set. The other used only the 70 stations that surfacestations.org classified as good or best… the two time series, shown below as both annual data and smooth data, are remarkably similar. Clearly there is no indication for this analysis that poor current siting is imparting a bias in the U.S. temperature trends.


Figure 1. From Talking Points Memo.

Beyond the above sentence, there was no further information on the provenance of the two data sets. NOAA did not archive either data set nor provide source code for reconciliation.

The red graphic for the “full data set” had, using the preferred terminology of climate science, a “remarkable similarity” to the NOAA 48 data set that I’d previously compared to the corresponding GISS data set here (which showed a strong trend of NOAA relative to GISS). Here’s a replot of that data – there are some key telltales evidencing that this has a common provenance to the red series in the Talking Points graphic.


Figure 2. Plot of US data from www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs/drd964x.tmpst.txt

An obvious question is whether the Talking Points starting point of 1950 is relevant. Here’s the corresponding graphic with the 1895 starting point used in USHCN v2. Has the truncation of the graphic start at 1950 “enhanced” the visual impression of an increasing trend? I think so. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 75 Comments »

Categories : politics, weather_stations

An Australian look at USHCN: 20th century trend is largely if not entirely an artefact arising from the “corrections”

28 06 2009
click for larger image

click for larger image

From environmentalist Jennifer Marohasy’s blog in Australia, please pay her a visit here – Anthony

There has been criticism of the potential for official weather stations in the USA to record artificially high temperatures because of the changing environments in which they exist, for example, new asphalt, new building or new air conditioning outlets.   Meteorologist, Anthony Watts, has documented evidence of the problem and Canadian academic, Ross McKitrick, has attempted to calculate just how artificially elevated temperatures might be as a consequence.

A reader of this blog, Michael Hammer, recently studied the official data from the US official weather stations and in particular how it is adjusted after it has been collected.   Mr Hammer concludes that the temperature rise profile claimed by the US government is largely if not entirely an artefact of the adjustments applied after the raw data is collected from the weather stations.

Does the US Temperature Record Support Global Warming?
By Michael Hammer

IN the US, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) collects, analyses and publishes temperature data for the United States.   As part of the analysis process, NOAA applies several adjustments to the raw data.

If we consider, the above graph, which shows, their plot of the raw data  (dark pink) and the adjusted data (pale pink), it is obvious that the adjustments have little impact on data from early in the 20th century but adjust later temperature readings upwards by an increasing amount.  This means that the adjustments will create an apparent warming trend over the 20th century.  [Click on the above chart for a better larger view, this chart can also be viewed at http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/ndp019.html .]

NOAA state that they adjust the raw data for five factors.  The magnitude of the adjustments are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2.  Form of individual corrections applied by NOAA. The black line is the adjustment for time of observation.  The red line is for a change in maximum/minimum thermometers used.  The yellow line is for changes in station siting. The pale blue line is for filling in missing data from individual station records. The purple line is for UHI effects (this correction is now removed).  [Click on the chart for a better larger view or visit the same website as for Figure 1.] Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 127 Comments »

Categories : climate data, climate_change, weather_stations

Absence makes the chart grow fonder

25 06 2009

For those who love (or hate) GISTEMP’s surface temperature product, we have this from Climate-Skeptic.com, by Warren Meyer. His interesting analysis is timely and appropriate. Surface station coverage in the areas of greatest contention right now are rather poor. – Anthony

Warren writes:

Apropos of my last post, Bob Tisdale is beginning a series analyzing the differences between the warmest surface-based temperature set (GISTEMP) and a leading satellite measurement series (UAH).  As I mentioned, these two sets have been diverging for years.  I estimated the divergence at around 0.1C per decade  (this is a big number, as it is about equal to the measured warming rate in the second half of the 20th century and about half the IPCC predicted warming for the next century).   Tisdale does the math a little more precisely, and gets the divergence at only 0.035C per decade.   This is lower than I would have expected and seems to be driven a lot by the GISS’s under-estimation of the 1998 spike vs. UAH.  I got the higher number with a different approach, by putting the two anamolies on the same basis using 1979-1985 averages and then comparing recent values.

Here are the differences in trendline by area of the world (he covers the whole world by grouping ocean areas with nearby continents).  GISS trend minus UAH trend, degrees C per decade:Arctic:  0.134

North America:  -0.026

South America: -0.013

Europe:  0.05

Africa:  0.104

Asia:  0.077

Australia:  -0.02

Antarctica:  0.139

So, the three highest differences, each about an order of magnitude higher than differences in other areas, are in 1.  Antarctica;  2. Arctic; and 3. Africa.  What do these three have in common?

Well, what the have most in common is the fact that these are also the three areas of the world with the poorest surface temperature coverage.  Here is the GISS coverage showing color only in areas where they have a thermometer record within a 250km box:

ghcn_giss_250km_anom1212_1991_2008_1961_1990

Read the rest of this entry »


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Categories : climate data, weather_stations

Arctic temperature is still not above 0°C – the latest date in fifty years of record keeping

25 06 2009

By Joseph D’Aleo, AMS Fellow, CCM

The average arctic temperature is still not above (take your pick) 32°F 0°C 273.15°K–this the latest date in fifty years of record keeping that this has happened. Usually it is beginning to level off now and if it does so, it will stay near freezing on average in the arctic leading to still less melting than last summer which saw a 9% increase in arctic ice than in 2007.  H/T to FredM and MarcM


image
Data from DMI (Danish Meteorological Institute)

See larger image here. Compare with DMI charts in other years here.

[NOTE: as a second source to Joe’s article I’ve added this weather station data from the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA. Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

There is a webcam at the “North Pole” (at least it starts out very near there) that reports via satellite data uplink at regular intervals. They also have a weather station with a once weekly data plot.  Note it is still below zero centigrade there. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 208 Comments »

Categories : Arctic, measurement, sea ice, weather_stations

NCDC writes ghost “talking points” rebuttal to surfacestations project

24 06 2009

UPDATE: The “ghost author” has been identified, see the end of the article.

When I first saw it, I laughed.

When I saw the internal memo circulated to top managers at NOAA, I laughed even more.

Why?  Because NOAA and NCDC are rebuking an analysis which I have not even written yet, using old data, and nobody at NOAA or NCDC  had the professionalism to put their name to the document.

First let’s have a look at the National Climatic Data Center’s web page from a week ago:

ncdc_web_page_061209

I was quite surprised to find that my midterm census report on the surfacestations.org project evoked a response from NCDC. I suppose they are getting some heat from the citizenry and some congress critters over lack of quality control. I was even more surprised to see that they couldn’t even get the title right, particularly since the title of my report defines most of what NCDC is all about; Surface Temperature Measurement. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 175 Comments »

Categories : climate data, politics, weather_stations

Surfacestations update – help needed for the final stretch

21 06 2009

I’m pleased to announce that after a quality control review of all stations surveyed so far we are now at the 80.4% mark. 982 stations out of 1221 of the USHCN network have been surveyed. 239 stations remain to be surveyed.

USHCN Surface Stations remaining to be surveyed - click for larger image

USHCN Surface Stations remaining to be surveyed - click for larger image

A Google Earth KML file has also been created to help volunteers assist us in surveying these remaining stations to the best of our ability. I don’t expect to get all of them, but we should be able to easily exceed the 1000 station mark and perhaps reach 90% before the end of summer.

You can download the Google Earth KML file which was used to make the map above, get it -click here.  [Note,  if using Internet Explorer, right mouse click and choose "Save Target As.."  ~ charles the moderator] It is very helpful in locating stations. Google Earth is a free download here.

For those who don’t have Google Earth capability, get it – click here, is the list of stations remaining that you can view in your browser. Both files are useful in different ways, so I suggest getting both.

Our goal is to find the few remaining “best” CRN1 and CRN2 stations. So far there have been very few of these “best” stations, 92 so far, making up only 10% of the network. The majority of those also happen to be ASOS stations at airports, and as we have seen from the MIC in Hawaii’s WSFO, ASOS stations have not been deemed suitable for climate monitoring, since they are placed for aviation purposes.

Here are the percentage breakdowns so far, plus a nice bar chart by Gary Boden showing the states that have been completed and those that need the most attention: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 124 Comments »

Categories : Announcements, weather_stations

Getting crabby – another missing NASA GISS station found, thanks to a TV show

20 06 2009
Deadliest_catch

Gavin should watch this show - he might find his missing weather station

A couple of days ago, I located the “long lost” Honolulu Observatory GISS weather station on the Island of Oahu with just a couple of hours of digging. That one apparently got “lost” because the station name changed, and the inter-agency communications seemed to be the cause, and nobody at GISS bothered to look to see if there was still current data coming from the station.

Today I found one in under 5 minutes. I wasn’t even planning on looking for one, it happened by accident. I was watching the Discovery Channel TV show this afternoon “Deadliest Catch” where crab fishermen brave the worst imaginable weather to keep crab shacks running nationwide. They are based out of Dutch Harbor, Alaska.

While watching a scene where they were coming into the docks, I saw an ever so brief flash of what looked like a Stevenson Screen off in the distance near the docks. I hadn’t expected to see one and I wasn’t 100% sure, but I thought I’d check NCDC’s metadatabase (MMS) for Dutch Harbor, AK. Sure enough, they have a COOP station there with a Stevenson Screen there that is “current”. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 145 Comments »

Categories : fun_stuff, weather_stations

This is your Honolulu Temperature. This is your Honolulu Temperature on ASOS. Any questions?

19 06 2009

asphalt_egg

This graph got rather buried at the end of a long explanatory post showing the twists and turns I had to take to get the data. I think it needs front and center exposure, so I’m putting it here.

It is rather hot over asphalt. It’s even warmer when the temperature sensor malfunctions and creates a string of new record highs that the NWS does not see fit to remove from the records.

Graph of data - click for larger imageGraph of PHNL and PTWC station data for June 2009 – click for larger image

Note when the highs (Tmax) converged for the first time this month to within one degree. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 61 Comments »

Categories : climate data, ridiculae, weather_stations

More on NOAA’s FUBAR Honolulu “record highs” ASOS debacle, PLUS finding a long lost GISS station

19 06 2009

In my previous post I pointed out how when Warren Meyer asked a simple question; “is this chart representative?” of himself, he needed only one phone call to disprove that a chart in the newly released Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States from the National Climatic Data Center (see NCDC GCCI Government Report). The chart purported to show a threat increase to the national electrical grid due to severe weather was really not a weather trend at all, but a trend of increased reporting thanks to increased diligence by the owner of the data in getting electrical utilities to cooperate and send in their data.

In another recent post on the FUBAR climate records from the failed ASOS weather station temperature sensor at Honolulu International Airport, I showed a nearby comparison station, the Honolulu Observatory, that is a GISS station that apparently no longer reports. I wrote -

But the nearby Honolulu Observatory temperature record doesn’t seem to have much of a trend, though it no longer measures temperature for climate records, a pity:

Honolulu Observatory GISS station plotHonolulu Observatory GISS surface temperature record plot – click for larger image

Yes it sure seemed like the Honolulu Observatory stopped reporting in 1981. It also looks like the station was moved about 1949, or something happened around the station environment.

UPDATE: I got this via email on the morning of 6/19

The Geomag operations of the Honolulu observatory were moved in 1947.
Jeffrey J Love
USGS Advisor for Geomagnetic Research

Steve McIntyre, who has pointed out on many occasions to NASA GISS how they can find some of their long long stations that are actually still running popped in today to ask a simple question about reporting. It was not unlike the question about reporting Warren Meyers asked: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 117 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate data, ridiculae, weather_stations

How not to measure temperature, part 88 – Honolulu’s Official Temperature ±2

16 06 2009

People send me stuff, some days my email explodes. Today I got all sorts of things about Obama and John Holdren and the new NCDC climate spincycle which Steve McIntyre has dubbed Chucky Returns Part IV. That one made me laugh out loud.

Something else that made me laugh today was this well done story (h/t to Andrew Walden) from reporter Tina Chau of KGMB-TV in Honolulu, HI. The NWS spokesman Tom Birchard was clearly flummoxed, and at the end of the interview said exactly what I’ve always said about the ASOS system and measurement of climate data at airports. Comedian George Carlin was right in his “Hippy dippy weatherman routine”: Why do they always give the temperature for the airport? Nobody LIVES there!

“ASOS…placed for aviation purposes…not necessarily for  climate purposes.”


Yet, ASOS weather stations at airports worldwide are in fact used for climate, and are part of the official climate record. In the US alone, there are 64 ASOS stations (that I’ve found so far) in the official USHCN climate record, plus there are hundreds in GHCN worldwide.  In my studies of the USHCN temperature network, I’ve found dozens of such poor siting examples even at non-airports. See my report here (PDF, 4 MB).

Our old friend the ASOS and HO-83 temperature sensors may be up to tricks again in Honolulu. It seems the temperature is a wee bit off and new records are being set by the ASOS weather station at the airport. I’m reminded of the similar situation in Tucson years ago that went on a long time before anybody caught it. I’ve found the HNL station, seen below. It is located at lat/lon 21.32403 -157.939467 There’s more than meets the eye. More after the news story.

Honolulu Airport Weather Station - click for live interactive map view

Honolulu Airport Weather Station - click for live interactive map view

Honolulu Temperature Records Questioned

Written by Tina Chau

The high in Honolulu Monday was 92 degrees. It was the hottest June 15 since the National Weather Service started keeping track and the 8th straight day we’ve broken or tied a record. But was it really that hot?

That’s what the experts at the NWS have been wondering. They settled their suspicions with a trip to the airport to check Honolulu’s official temperature sensor. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 81 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, measurement, media, weather_stations

A few thoughts on the “climate change lowers wind speeds” study

16 06 2009

anemometer_in_the_breezeBy now you’ve probably read about Wind speed trends over the contiguous USA by Pryor et al. (2009, in press, JGR)

There is also an Associated Press story which cites this as a “first-of-its-kind study, and  suggests that average and peak wind speeds have been noticeably slowing since 1973, especially in the Midwest and the East.”

Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit  takes the study to task, not only for its data and conclusions, but for the Shenanigans of Michael Mann and Gavin Schmidt when they try to backtrack post facto after giving independent interview to AP’s Seth Borenstein and suddenly finding themselves in disagreement over whether “climate change” is involved or not. Go team.

I’ll point out that measuring wind accurately over a long period is not easy, particularly because surface anemometers tend to be problematic by the nature of their mechanical design. Aerovanes are better, but still have some of the same issues.

There’s also issues with land use change around the sensor long term, which I’ll get to in a moment. But first, the instrumentation.

For the traditional anemometer, here are some issues I’ve identified: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 62 Comments »

Categories : Technology, climate data, measurement, weather_stations

SurfaceStations now at 80% of the network surveyed: Illinois and Florida USHCN surveys complete

15 06 2009

Illinois USHCN StationsFlorida USHCN stations

It has been a long time coming to get these two states completed. I’m happy to report that they have now been completely surveyed for all USHCN stations. I’d like to personally thank volunteer Ted Semons for his week long road trip in Illinois to get the remaining 17 stations completed, plus volunteer Ron Horvath for getting Key West Florida completed

Further, as of last night, we have now surveyed 981 stations out of the 1221 USHCN weather station network, for 80.3% of the total. With only 19 stations to go to reach 1000 surveyed, I have no doubt we’ll bat 1000 soon. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 45 Comments »

Categories : Announcements, weather_stations

Quote of the week #9 – “negative thermometers”

10 06 2009

qotw_cropped

Image from WUWT reader “Boudu”

Its has been awhile since I had a QOTW, but the last couple of weeks have been full of travel, and I’ve been out of the comment loop until recently. But this response from RyanO to the incorrigible commenter “TCO”, over at the Air Vent left me in stitches:

Negative thermometers ARE sh**. 100% sh**. I shouldn’t even need to say it to make it so. If the math results in negative thermometers, then something is wrong with the math.

Yet, we have ample evidence of negative thermometers (actual surface stations measuring air temperature where the resultant data is inverted after processing) in the Steig et al “Antarctica is Warming” paper, ( Nature, Jan 22, 2009) thanks to the careful analysis of Jeff Id and RyanO

Here’s one view of a negative thermometer:

negative_thermometer

And here’s what they look like in the Steig et al paper: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 64 Comments »

Categories : ridiculae, weather_stations

An old friend put out to pasture: Marysville is no longer a USHCN climate station of record

10 06 2009

WUWT readers who have followed this blog and the surfacestations.org project for a long time know that the USHCN climate station of record in Marysville, California,  is the station that gave me that moment “when the light bulb went on”. I still remember my cellphone conversation (shortly after surveying the site) with my friend Russ Steele, saying:

“Russ you won’t believe it, they are measuring the temperature of a parking lot!”.

Some of the pictures I took that day are below, I’ve annotated them to point out things of interest.

Marysville_issues1.JPG

Marysville_issues3.JPG

I made Marysville the very first of the  ”How not to Measure Temperature” series on May 26th, 2007.

I realized in discussions at this Climate Audit thread, since Marysville was one of the first stations I surveyed, I hadn’t looked at the metadata for it in almost two years. Time for a look again given the discussion of this thread. I’ve been busy chasing hundreds of other stations but haven’t looked back to that one where I had the light bulb go on.

I found some interesting things last night in the NCDC Metadata (MMS) for Marysville at http://mi3.ncdc.noaa.gov/mi3qry/login.cfm (use guest login button)

First in The UPDATES Tab

[2009-02-04] 9999-12-31 2009-02-04 MSLAGLE AD HOC NONE — CLEAN UP OF COOP-A STN TYPE ISSUE MSLAGLE 2009-02-04

Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 58 Comments »

Categories : climate data, weather_stations

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