Early 20th Century Warming – Polar Amplification, Model-Data & Model-Model Comparisons

A Guest Post By Bob Tisdale In this post, we’re going to illustrate how poorly climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report simulate the polar amplification that data indicate took place during the early 20th Century warming period of 1916 to 1945. Advertisements

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Inequality promotes deforestation in Latin America

What can’t you show with models?~ctm From EurekAlert! University of Bern Tropical deforestation is a major contributor to climate change and loss of local and global ecosystem functions. Latin America accounts for a large share of remaining tropical forests, but also features deforestation rates well above the world average. Here, the biggest driver of deforestation…

Global Energy Balances … Except When It Doesn’t

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach. I came across an interesting 2014 paper called “The energy balance over land and oceans: an assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5 climate models“. In it, they make a number of comparisons between observational data and 43 climate models regarding the large-scale energy flows of the planet. Here’s a typical…

Snowpack declines may stunt tree growth and forests’ ability to store carbon emissions

And if my aunt had…..~ctm From Eurekalert Public Release: 1-Dec-2018 New study findings also suggest a variety of industries in the Northeast could be negatively affected by warming trends, including maple syrup, timber and snow sports Advanced Science Research Center, GC/CUNY NEW YORK, December 1, 2018 – Researchers conducting a 5-year-long study examining snow cover…

Gavin's Twitter Trick

Last week, Larry Kummer posted a very thoughtful article here on WUWT: A climate science milestone: a successful 10-year forecast! At first glance, this did look like “a successful 10-year forecast: The observations track closer to the model ensemble mean (P50) than most other models and the 2016 El Niño spikes at least a little bit…

Pat Michaels: "A Climate Roadmap for Pres. Trump"

By David Middleton OPINION A climate roadmap for President Trump by Patrick Michaels | Jul 14, 2017 This week, President Trump is likely getting an earful in Paris over his extrication of the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement earlier this year. But our withdrawal will be meaningless unless he follows up with two important…

Reconciling predictions of climate change

From Eurekalert, New framework accounts for conflicting estimates of global temperature increases Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences   AUDIO: SEAS researchers Peter Huybers and Cristian Proistosescu resolved a major conflict in estimates of how much the Earth will warm in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide in the… view…

Why Climate Models Run Hot

by Rud Istvan,   EPA administrator Pruitt wants to “Red Team” the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) consensus best reflected in the IPCC assessment reports (AR). At its core, CAGW rests on just three propositions: 1. CO2 is a ‘greenhouse’ gas retarding radiative cooling. This should not be in serious dispute since Tyndall experimentally proved…

Because of the GISS and NOAA Press Conference about 2016 Global Surface Temperatures…

…A Reminder of How Horribly Climate Models Simulate the Surface Temperatures of Earth’s Oceans. Guest Post by Bob Tisdale This post serves as the annual model-data comparison for sea surface temperatures. INTRODUCTION Oceans cover about 70% of the surface of the Earth, yet climate models are far from properly simulating the surface temperatures of those…