Claim: New mathematical method shows how climate change led to fall of ancient civilization
Chaos paper by RIT Assistant Professor Nishant Malik applies method to Indus Valley Civilization
Central Planning Gone Wild!
Indeed, the main purpose of reopening businesses is to prevent further deterioration of our economy by generating profits and provide incomes that many citizens desperately need. However, for employees in a contact-based position, the risk of COVID infection and transmission may remarkably increase if they return to work.
Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity related infectivity of individuals would reduce, in my view probably very substantially, the herd immunity threshold (HIT), beyond which an epidemic goes into retreat. I opined, based on my modelling, that the HIT probably lay somewhere between 7% and 24%, and that evidence from Stockholm County suggested it was around 17% there, and had been reached. Mounting evidence supports my reasoning.[1]
Podcast: The Calamity of Models (Guest: Willis Eschenbach)
Both climate and coronavirus models continue to fail. Why do we still look at them for deciding public policy? Our resident polymath Willis Eschenbach joins Anthony Watts to discuss the parallels of hysteria and failure surrounding climate models and the coronovirus model that effectively put the world on hold. Problem is, it’s worse than the…
Forecast models encounter reality
Reposted from CFACT By Kenneth Green |May 28th, 2020 Though forecast models have been a problem in the way they are utilized in public and environmental health for decades now, they have never before crested public awareness in quite the way they have in the time of COVID-19. People accustomed to seeing forecasts of things…
Another scientist who doesn’t believe in a word he says
Scientist demonstrates Pandemic lockdowns are “only for the little people”. The Leona Helmsley moment for science has arrived. From the bigger they are, the harder they fall department comes this epic fall from grace by a deified idiot thinking with his non-science head. From the UK Telegraph: Exclusive: Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking…
Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models
PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again. Climate models and coronavirus models have both been used to predict the future, and both have been used to form public policy. In this podcast…
Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus
Guest Post by Kevin Kilty No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential processes. Indeed, as the author of one chapter in a recent book [1] states: “One characteristic of an exponential growth process that humans find it…
COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection
Reposted from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on March 25, 2020 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of panic…
What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty
Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you mean by x, B: oh I really mean y, A: but what does y really mean, B: oh put in other words it means z,…