Reposted from CFACT By Kenneth Green |May 28th, 2020 Though forecast models have been a problem in the way they are utilized in public and environmental health for decades now, they have never before crested public awareness in quite the way they have in the time of COVID-19. People accustomed to seeing forecasts of things…
Scientist demonstrates Pandemic lockdowns are “only for the little people”. The Leona Helmsley moment for science has arrived. From the bigger they are, the harder they fall department comes this epic fall from grace by a deified idiot thinking with his non-science head. From the UK Telegraph: Exclusive: Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking…
PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again. Climate models and coronavirus models have both been used to predict the future, and both have been used to form public policy. In this podcast…
Guest Post by Kevin Kilty No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential processes. Indeed, as the author of one chapter in a recent book [1] states: “One characteristic of an exponential growth process that humans find it…
Reposted from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on March 25, 2020 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed by the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. While it is clearly a serious threat, one should consider whether the best evidence supports the current degree of panic…
Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you mean by x, B: oh I really mean y, A: but what does y really mean, B: oh put in other words it means z,…
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog February 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Summary The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects a growth in energy-based CO2 emissions of +0.6%/yr through 2050. But translating future emissions into atmospheric CO2 concentration requires a global carbon budget model, and we frequently accept the United Nations reliance on…
From Nature Communications Andrea Saltelli Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3870 (2019) | Download Citation While the crisis of statistics has made it to the headlines, that of mathematical modelling hasn’t. Something can be learned comparing the two, and looking at other instances of production of numbers.Sociology of quantification and post-normal science can help.…
a bridge too far~ctm Lehigh University researchers’ novel approach combining climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment could help communities fortify bridges against scour caused by extreme weather Lehigh University Climate change will ultimately affect our bridges. But to what extent? That is the essential question addressed by Lehigh University researchers David Yang and Dan…
Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction I had contemplated a contribution involving feedback diagrams, systems of equations, differential equations, and propagation of error ever since Nick Stoke’s original contribution about a system of differential equations involving feedback way back in June of this year. A couple of days ago the user Bartemis posted a pair…