A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling

From Nature Communications Andrea Saltelli Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3870 (2019) | Download Citation While the crisis of statistics has made it to the headlines, that of mathematical modelling hasn’t. Something can be learned comparing the two, and looking at other instances of production of numbers.Sociology of quantification and post-normal science can help.…

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Predicting the impact of climate change on bridge safety

a bridge too far~ctm Lehigh University researchers’ novel approach combining climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment could help communities fortify bridges against scour caused by extreme weather Lehigh University Climate change will ultimately affect our bridges. But to what extent? That is the essential question addressed by Lehigh University researchers David Yang and Dan…

Models, Feedbacks, And Propagation Of Error

Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction I had contemplated a contribution involving feedback diagrams, systems of equations, differential equations, and propagation of error ever since Nick Stoke’s original contribution about a system of differential equations involving feedback way back in June of this year. A couple of days ago the user Bartemis posted a pair…

Remystifying Climate Feedback

By Joe Born 1. Introduction By presenting actual calculation results from a specific feedback-system example, the plots below will put some graphical meat on the verbal bones of Nick Stokes’ recent “Demystifying Feedback” post. I heartily agree with the main message I took from Mr. Stokes’ post: although some climate equations may be similar to…

A Third Look at Radiation versus Temperature

Guest post by KEVIN KILTY Introduction In a post on June 8, 2019, Willis Eschenbach showed an interesting plot of monthly average surface temperature against total irradiance absorbed at the ground surface. He has updated this original post. His original figure is at the top of this post. He made no hypothesis about the meaning…

Earth As A Solar Collector

Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction Within the past week or two we have read posts from Dr. Spencer (6/7/2019), Nick Stokes (6/6/2019), Lord Monckton (6/8/2019), and Willis Eschenbach (6/8/2019) covering a variety of topics involving simple block models; and each one involving, in one way or another, climate feedback. I have had a few…

New global warming model highlights strong impact of social learning

?????????????????????????~ctm Researchers account for feedback between climate change and human behavior PLOS A new climate modeling approach suggests that social processes strongly affect global warming predictions, and mitigation efforts should account for this influence. Thomas Bury of the Universities of Waterloo and Guelph, Canada, and colleagues present these findings in PLOS Computational Biology. Human behavior…

Modelling the Climate of Noonworld: A New Look at Venus.

Guest Post by Philip Mulholland “Study hard what interests you the most in the most undisciplined, irreverent and original manner possible.” Richard P. Feynman. 1. Introduction: The Science of Climate. A planetary climate consists of a dynamic mobile-fluid mass-transport and energy delivery system, organised in the form of closed loops or cells, that advects mass…