Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus

Guest Post by Kevin Kilty No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential processes. Indeed, as the author of one chapter in a recent book [1] states: “One characteristic of an exponential growth process that humans find it…

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What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty

Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong   Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you mean by x, B: oh I really mean y, A: but what does y really mean, B: oh put in other words it means z,…

Will Humanity Ever Reach 2XCO2? Possibly Not

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog February 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Summary The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects a growth in energy-based CO2 emissions of +0.6%/yr through 2050. But translating future emissions into atmospheric CO2 concentration requires a global carbon budget model, and we frequently accept the United Nations reliance on…

A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling

From Nature Communications Andrea Saltelli Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3870 (2019) | Download Citation While the crisis of statistics has made it to the headlines, that of mathematical modelling hasn’t. Something can be learned comparing the two, and looking at other instances of production of numbers.Sociology of quantification and post-normal science can help.…

Predicting the impact of climate change on bridge safety

a bridge too far~ctm Lehigh University researchers’ novel approach combining climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment could help communities fortify bridges against scour caused by extreme weather Lehigh University Climate change will ultimately affect our bridges. But to what extent? That is the essential question addressed by Lehigh University researchers David Yang and Dan…

Models, Feedbacks, And Propagation Of Error

Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction I had contemplated a contribution involving feedback diagrams, systems of equations, differential equations, and propagation of error ever since Nick Stoke’s original contribution about a system of differential equations involving feedback way back in June of this year. A couple of days ago the user Bartemis posted a pair…

Remystifying Climate Feedback

By Joe Born 1. Introduction By presenting actual calculation results from a specific feedback-system example, the plots below will put some graphical meat on the verbal bones of Nick Stokes’ recent “Demystifying Feedback” post. I heartily agree with the main message I took from Mr. Stokes’ post: although some climate equations may be similar to…