Yet, a simple model like what I’ve shared here can help illustrate general mechanisms, and clarify some otherwise mystifying phenomenon. These simple models explain things like how back-radiation fluxes can…
Category: Modeling
A Greenhouse Gas Planetary Temperature Formula to Put Nikolov and Zeller’s Pressure Formula in Context
So, in terms of corresponding to underlying physics, I expect my formula is basically nonsense. But, it has at least as much correspondence to the underlying physics as is the…
There Are Models And There Are Models
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’m 74, and I’ve been programming computers nearly as long as anyone alive. When I was 15, I’d been reading about computers in pulp science…
500 Years of Global SST Variations from a 1D Forcing-Feedback Model
If nothing else, the results in Fig. 3 might give us some idea of the ENSO-related SST variations for 300-400 years before anthropogenic forcings became significant, and how those variations…
Climate change likely drove early human species to extinction, modeling study suggests
Of the six or more different species of early humans, all belonging to the genus Homo, only we Homo sapiens have managed to survive. Now, a study reported in the…
Claim: New mathematical method shows how climate change led to fall of ancient civilization
Chaos paper by RIT Assistant Professor Nishant Malik applies method to Indus Valley Civilization
Central Planning Gone Wild!
Indeed, the main purpose of reopening businesses is to prevent further deterioration of our economy by generating profits and provide incomes that many citizens desperately need. However, for employees in…
Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity…
Podcast: The Calamity of Models (Guest: Willis Eschenbach)
Both climate and coronavirus models continue to fail. Why do we still look at them for deciding public policy? Our resident polymath Willis Eschenbach joins Anthony Watts to discuss the…
Forecast models encounter reality
Reposted from CFACT By Kenneth Green |May 28th, 2020 Though forecast models have been a problem in the way they are utilized in public and environmental health for decades now,…
Another scientist who doesn’t believe in a word he says
Scientist demonstrates Pandemic lockdowns are “only for the little people”. The Leona Helmsley moment for science has arrived. From the bigger they are, the harder they fall department comes this…
Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models
PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again.…
Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus
Guest Post by Kevin Kilty No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential…
COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection
Reposted from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on March 25, 2020 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed…
What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty
Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you…
Will Humanity Ever Reach 2XCO2? Possibly Not
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog February 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Summary The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects a growth in energy-based CO2 emissions of +0.6%/yr…
A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling
From Nature Communications Andrea Saltelli Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3870 (2019) | Download Citation While the crisis of statistics has made it to the headlines, that of mathematical…
Predicting the impact of climate change on bridge safety
a bridge too far~ctm Lehigh University researchers’ novel approach combining climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment could help communities fortify bridges against scour caused by extreme weather Lehigh University…
Models, Feedbacks, And Propagation Of Error
Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction I had contemplated a contribution involving feedback diagrams, systems of equations, differential equations, and propagation of error ever since Nick Stoke’s original contribution about…
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections, Mark II.
Guest post by Pat Frank Readers of Watts Up With That will know from Mark I that for six years I have been trying to publish a manuscript with the…
Using an Iterative Adiabatic Model to study the Climate of Titan.
Using an Iterative Adiabatic Model to study the Climate of Titan. Guest Post by P Mulholland and Stephen Wilde. July 2019 “I would rather have questions that can’t be answered…
Remystifying Climate Feedback
By Joe Born 1. Introduction By presenting actual calculation results from a specific feedback-system example, the plots below will put some graphical meat on the verbal bones of Nick Stokes’…
A Third Look at Radiation versus Temperature
Guest post by KEVIN KILTY Introduction In a post on June 8, 2019, Willis Eschenbach showed an interesting plot of monthly average surface temperature against total irradiance absorbed at the…
Earth As A Solar Collector
Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction Within the past week or two we have read posts from Dr. Spencer (6/7/2019), Nick Stokes (6/6/2019), Lord Monckton (6/8/2019), and Willis Eschenbach (6/8/2019)…
