Central Planning Gone Wild!

Taken together, these analyses provide a strong case for redistributive policies that establish both minimum and maximum income and/or consumption levels

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to poor modeling

The methods used in A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera et all 2021 are seriously flawed causing results and conclusion to be invalid.

Debunked: New Computer Simulated Pine Island Glacier Doomsday Paper By Rosier et al Ignores Lots Of Science

Die kalte Sonne brings up the question: Why were these earlier studies – many based on observations – ignored by Rosier et al? “Hard to believe they were,” says the…

Trouble in Noonworld, Take 2

I have been trying to understand and deconstruct the climate-modeling work of Philip Mulholland and Stephen Wilde (M&W). M&W seem to believe that the model they have developed explains planetary…

Trouble in Noonworld

So, on Noonworld, the Dark side partitioning ratio is always 𝛾ₒ = 0. The entire convective heat flux from the warm air always flows into the cold surface. Any other…

Atmospheric Energy Recycling

Yet, a simple model like what I’ve shared here can help illustrate general mechanisms, and clarify some otherwise mystifying phenomenon. These simple models explain things like how back-radiation fluxes can…

A Greenhouse Gas Planetary Temperature Formula to Put Nikolov and Zeller’s Pressure Formula in Context

So, in terms of corresponding to underlying physics, I expect my formula is basically nonsense. But, it has at least as much correspondence to the underlying physics as is the…

There Are Models And There Are Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’m 74, and I’ve been programming computers nearly as long as anyone alive.  When I was 15, I’d been reading about computers in pulp science…

500 Years of Global SST Variations from a 1D Forcing-Feedback Model

If nothing else, the results in Fig. 3 might give us some idea of the ENSO-related SST variations for 300-400 years before anthropogenic forcings became significant, and how those variations…

Climate change likely drove early human species to extinction, modeling study suggests

Of the six or more different species of early humans, all belonging to the genus Homo, only we Homo sapiens have managed to survive. Now, a study reported in the…

Claim: New mathematical method shows how climate change led to fall of ancient civilization

Chaos paper by RIT Assistant Professor Nishant Malik applies method to Indus Valley Civilization

Central Planning Gone Wild!

Indeed, the main purpose of reopening businesses is to prevent further deterioration of our economy by generating profits and provide incomes that many citizens desperately need. However, for employees in…

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update

I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity…

Podcast: The Calamity of Models (Guest: Willis Eschenbach)

Both climate and coronavirus models continue to fail. Why do we still look at them for deciding public policy? Our resident polymath Willis Eschenbach joins Anthony Watts to discuss the…

Forecast models encounter reality

Reposted from CFACT By Kenneth Green |May 28th, 2020 Though forecast models have been a problem in the way they are utilized in public and environmental health for decades now,…

Another scientist who doesn’t believe in a word he says

Scientist demonstrates Pandemic lockdowns are “only for the little people”. The Leona Helmsley moment for science has arrived. From the bigger they are, the harder they fall department comes this…

Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models

PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again.…

Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus

Guest Post by Kevin Kilty No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential…

COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

Reposted from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on March 25, 2020 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed…

What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty

Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong   Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you…

Will Humanity Ever Reach 2XCO2? Possibly Not

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog February 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Summary The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects a growth in energy-based CO2 emissions of +0.6%/yr…

A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling

From Nature Communications Andrea Saltelli Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3870 (2019) | Download Citation While the crisis of statistics has made it to the headlines, that of mathematical…

Predicting the impact of climate change on bridge safety

a bridge too far~ctm Lehigh University researchers’ novel approach combining climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment could help communities fortify bridges against scour caused by extreme weather Lehigh University…

Models, Feedbacks, And Propagation Of Error

Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction I had contemplated a contribution involving feedback diagrams, systems of equations, differential equations, and propagation of error ever since Nick Stoke’s original contribution about…