Observations of hurricane activity apparently don’t show the right trends. So this new paper re-invents history by using modeled historical hurricane activity to find the right trends.
Category: Modeling
Surface Radiation Balance
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Let me invite you to wander with me through some research I’ve been doing. I got to thinking about the surface radiation balance. The earth’s…
Central Planning Gone Wild!
Taken together, these analyses provide a strong case for redistributive policies that establish both minimum and maximum income and/or consumption levels
The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to poor modeling
The methods used in A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera et all 2021 are seriously flawed causing results and conclusion to be invalid.
Debunked: New Computer Simulated Pine Island Glacier Doomsday Paper By Rosier et al Ignores Lots Of Science
Die kalte Sonne brings up the question: Why were these earlier studies – many based on observations – ignored by Rosier et al? “Hard to believe they were,” says the…
Trouble in Noonworld, Take 2
I have been trying to understand and deconstruct the climate-modeling work of Philip Mulholland and Stephen Wilde (M&W). M&W seem to believe that the model they have developed explains planetary…
Trouble in Noonworld
So, on Noonworld, the Dark side partitioning ratio is always 𝛾ₒ = 0. The entire convective heat flux from the warm air always flows into the cold surface. Any other…
Atmospheric Energy Recycling
Yet, a simple model like what I’ve shared here can help illustrate general mechanisms, and clarify some otherwise mystifying phenomenon. These simple models explain things like how back-radiation fluxes can…
A Greenhouse Gas Planetary Temperature Formula to Put Nikolov and Zeller’s Pressure Formula in Context
So, in terms of corresponding to underlying physics, I expect my formula is basically nonsense. But, it has at least as much correspondence to the underlying physics as is the…
There Are Models And There Are Models
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’m 74, and I’ve been programming computers nearly as long as anyone alive. When I was 15, I’d been reading about computers in pulp science…
500 Years of Global SST Variations from a 1D Forcing-Feedback Model
If nothing else, the results in Fig. 3 might give us some idea of the ENSO-related SST variations for 300-400 years before anthropogenic forcings became significant, and how those variations…
Climate change likely drove early human species to extinction, modeling study suggests
Of the six or more different species of early humans, all belonging to the genus Homo, only we Homo sapiens have managed to survive. Now, a study reported in the…
Claim: New mathematical method shows how climate change led to fall of ancient civilization
Chaos paper by RIT Assistant Professor Nishant Malik applies method to Indus Valley Civilization
Central Planning Gone Wild!
Indeed, the main purpose of reopening businesses is to prevent further deterioration of our economy by generating profits and provide incomes that many citizens desperately need. However, for employees in…
Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought – update
I showed in my May 10th article Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought that inhomogeneity within a population in the susceptibility and in the social-connectivity…
Podcast: The Calamity of Models (Guest: Willis Eschenbach)
Both climate and coronavirus models continue to fail. Why do we still look at them for deciding public policy? Our resident polymath Willis Eschenbach joins Anthony Watts to discuss the…
Forecast models encounter reality
Reposted from CFACT By Kenneth Green |May 28th, 2020 Though forecast models have been a problem in the way they are utilized in public and environmental health for decades now,…
Another scientist who doesn’t believe in a word he says
Scientist demonstrates Pandemic lockdowns are “only for the little people”. The Leona Helmsley moment for science has arrived. From the bigger they are, the harder they fall department comes this…
Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models
PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again.…
Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus
Guest Post by Kevin Kilty No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential…
COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection
Reposted from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on March 25, 2020 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed…
What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty
Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you…
Will Humanity Ever Reach 2XCO2? Possibly Not
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog February 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Summary The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects a growth in energy-based CO2 emissions of +0.6%/yr…
A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling
From Nature Communications Andrea Saltelli Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3870 (2019) | Download Citation While the crisis of statistics has made it to the headlines, that of mathematical…