By P Gosselin
“Results are somewhat in contrast to climate projections”
Hat-tip: Klimanachrichten
The European Space Agency (ESA) here reports on runoff and river discharge, which are important components in Earth’s water cycle.
With the globe allegedly warming, drought and heatwaves are said to be more frequent and so the hotter climate should lead to reduced water runoff and river discharge. But scientists, using data from satellites, are finding out “this isn’t always the case.”
Runoff occurs when the soil is saturated and has lost its capacity to soak up any more water. The water is then forced to flow over land until it reaches a stream or a river. River discharge describes the volume of water flowing per second at a given point along a river.
ESA says that river discharge is an indicator of climate change and trends on this can be derived from satellite data. In these days of climate panic, many scientists believe that heat and drought will lead to drier soils and so less runoff into rivers.
The map shows soil moisture during February 2023 compared to the reference period of 1995–2022. It is clear to see that Turkey is particularly dry, but so too are parts of the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium much of France. Credit: ESA (data source: GDO, CEMS)
The Hydrology Group of the Italian National Research Council has developed an innovative approach using satellite observations of terrestrial water storage, soil moisture and precipitation to predict runoff and river discharge. The results were published in the Geoscientific Model Development journal.
The team of scientists led by Stefania Camici of the National Research Council of Italy, found that “runoff is also increasing parts of southern Europe, including central Italy, Sardinia, Corsica and the in the Pyrenees.”
Much of northern Europe had been stricken by drought over the 2018-2022 period, and so runoff and river discharge decreased. But the heavy rains of late 2023 have literally erased the low runoff situation. Soil saturation and river discharge are high
The ESA reports on their results:
Dr. Camici commented, ‘These results are somewhat in contrast to climate projections, where runoff is expected to decrease only over southern Europe. While these results need to be further validated and cross-checked, they open up interesting new activities for hydrological research in the near future.’ “
Conclusion: Don’t trust the climate forecasters! They are having a tough time understanding what’s really going on, wrongly assume lots of things in their models, and so end up suggesting absurd policy decisions.
Entire ESA article here.
If only they could admit to being wrong
Fat chance.
Good posting of more Reality Check by P Gosselin. The runoff and river discharge environment also displays another aspect, that is; the river level is substantially controlled by the intersection of the water table with the river. Sure, some rainfall/melting snow runs down a river before an adjustment with ground saturation/water table occurs, but rivers generally mark the intersection of the water table with the surface. This posting is therefore doubly good news, not only does river flow continue, the water table is also in good condition.
Story tip.
Never mind cities reduced to dust, thousands of people reduced to bloody pulp, imminent nuclear WWIII, no, climate scientists worry about a lack of Russian Arctic data and the spread of beavers!
https://www.keranews.org/2024-01-22/why-the-war-in-ukraine-is-bad-for-climate-science
They will be the first on the B ark….
MrGrimNasty, my MSc in Geology is from Oregon State University, where the mascot is Benny the Beaver. The (unofficial) OSU motto is: Eat a Beaver and Save a Tree.
I live in a ‘drained’ moss in North Shropshire, England. We’ve had an awful lot of rain in the last two months. Ground is saturated and some of the old medieval fish-ponds down by the river Perry are filling up. It’s raining as I type. I walked the dogs along the lane last night (it’s on a ridge of high ground and descends to a causeway across the flood plain) and it was flooded in several places, as it has been over the last two months.
I’d appreciate a bit more run-off, but we chose to live in a marsh.
About 30 years ago I was worried about ‘climate change’ and as I lived 6 feet below the local river, and a foot or two below sea level, I decided to move up 300′ into the next county.
It’s just as wet, but there isn’t so much mechanical pumping and flood control. The house I used to live in is still there.
Just before Christmas I walked along the Montgomery canal which is raised above the drained moss. There is a small viaduct on the canal over the River Perry. The Perry was so high that the viaduct had effectively become a dam and the river was about 12 inches from overflowing into the canal. The usual gap bet2ween the river level and the canal is about 10 feet.
The Perry flows into the Severn just before Shrewsbury and the floodplains were, well, flooded. Couple of years ago walked to the top of Admiral Rodney’s Pillar (I also live close to where Admiral Benbow was born and raised for those who know Treasure Island) and all the fields along the Severn were flooded, even with the embankments. The water had somewhat gone down but you could see a tide line half way up the hedges in the lanes down on the plain.
We drain marshes, build on them, and wonder why they flood. Global warming obvs /sarc.
While these results need to be further validated and cross-checked, they open up interesting new activities for hydrological research in the near future.’
Send us money this grant is used up
Well in the UK today, a year later, its sodden and there are floods everywhere when its not sub zero and freezing.
Naturally that is also being blamed on climate change, but it’s just a ripple in the jet stream.
Same as the one that is bringing very cold weather to certain parts of the USA, and warmer weather to other parts. Some parts of Russia and Chia are undergoing extreme cold.
Its all part of the great swirling chaotic mass that is the global climate.
I think the people of Wales and the NW of England will be very sceptical of their noted wet areas will become drier.
The “scientists” never explain rationally how a warmer world is a drier world, despite all the mass of geohistorical data indicating the precise opposite, i.e., that a warmer world is a wetter world, and a cooler world is a drier world.
From just a theoretical approach, the truth of the actual data is undeniable. Moisture in the air, which eventually precipitates and falls to the surface as rain or snow, is a function of two factors:
1) The capacity of air to carry moisture relative to the saturation point – at which point humidity can no longer increase, being called “100% relative humidity” – is proportional to temperature. The reason meteorologists use the term “relative humidity” is because as temperature warms, the saturation point of water vapor for air increases, so that relative humidity, which directly affects precipitation and how the air “feels”, decreases with air temperature. Meteorologists do not report absolute humidity, because it is only relative humidity that is relevant to precipitation potential.
This explains how moist marine air masses moving across vertical terrain (mountains) tend to precipitate moisture on the upwind side of the mountains, leaving much dryer air passing downwind of the mountains. As the air is forced upwards, it cools adiabatically until the saturation temperature is reached then precipitation begins. The same with thunderstorm cells, where heated air rises above the surface (due to lower density) until it reaches an altitude where saturation is reached, causing precipitation to begin. Everyone who knows anything at all about weather knows this stuff.
2) The mass of water vapor in the lower atmosphere, where nearly all water vapor is contained, is also a function of oceanic surface temperatures, given that the oceans account for 70% of the entire surface of the Earth. Indeed, air masses are characterized as either marine (i.e., humid and with moderated temperatures due to the high specific heat capacity of water vs. air) or continental (dry with more pronounced temperature variation). When the oceans heat up, the vapor pressure of water in the air also increases, meaning a greater mass of water vapor is released by oceanic waters into the atmosphere.
Both theoretical factors say a warming world is a wetter world – as confirmed by the geohistorical data.
Yet the “scientists” persist in their stupidity, trying to convince us all that up is down, black is white, left is right, and stupid is smart.
yes but it’s not is it. Not in annual mean. Soil Annihilation↑ Cloud Fraction↓ Temperature↑ Precipitation Intensity↑ Runoff Fraction↑ Vapor Pressure Saturation↑ Relative Humidity↓
How does a Sputnik measure “soil moisture” – esp when they claim they know how much water is in the top 6 feet (1.8metres) of depth.
Surely Shirley, you can only know that by:
You know me, you then know what is completely missing is this conversation:
Soil Organic Matter
My story and how I came to realise its importance, how to recognise when it is present and when it is not:
As a teenager (1970’s) on the family farm in Cumbria, I would be given the task of ‘slurry spreading’
This is a winter-time job coming of when all the cows/livestock are indoors and on concrete standings. Their own poo, urine and rainfall creates ‘slurry’ or Liquid Cow Manure
And they make lots of it.
There was a particular 18acre field which was next to the main road and for historical reasons had 3 gateways onto that road – hence it was a good place to ‘lose some slurry’ during dry spells through the winter.
At the time, the biggest tractor we had was about 65hp and two-wheel drive
The tanker we had was of fibreglass construction on a steel chassis, one axle, and had a capacity of 1,000 gallons – all up weight of about 7 tonnes max
I could spread slurry on that field almost any time I liked, apart from during and immediately after heavy rain.
OK, I made a bit of a mess with very deep rut/track getting across the field but while spreading the stuff, no tracks/ruts or damage/mess at all and, I never got stuck or had to be rescued.
Wind the clock forward to early 2,000’s.
What alarmed me was that, just driving to and from home along the road past that field, when it rained that field looked like a lake of water. Every single time.
I went out on the ATV (quad bike) to investigate during ‘rain events’ and the water was simply sitting on the surface and gradually trickling its way down the gentle slope of the field,
At it lowest point it formed into a small river and poured away to the ditch at far end of the field.
But the really significant thing was, it was nearly impossible travelling across that field on a 4WD quad bike. It was so wet and slippery and, remembering slurry-spreading as a kid, the all up weight (me + quad) was barely 250kg
And just that weight, (250kg with 4WD) the quad made more mess of the field than the 11 Tonnes (2WD tractor + tanker) did 35 years previously.
And the quad kept getting stuck – in the middle of that wide open field.
The tractor/tanker combo never did.
What had happened:
The soil organic material had all vanished – walk across the field now and you’re on pure and hard red clay (sub-soil) – instead of the black soft organic loam (Top-soil Sponge) there was previously.
Then I worked out where it went and why = I discovered how Ammonium Nitrate actually works………..
(and sheep overgrazing)
And that process is happening everywhere where farmers use nitrate, even on perennial grass fields like mine.
When they use ploughs as well as nitrate, the loss of soil organics simply skyrockets.
And there it all is, wafting around in the sky in the form of CO₂
While the perennial plants that might absorb CO₂ for 12 months of the year are now replaced by annuals that only really absorb for 2 months. Maybe 3 months max.
If your field, like mine did and all my/your neighbours’ fields also, have turned into slabs of clay, how does water penetrate down to 1.8 metres depth, as claimed by The Sputnik?
Yet again, NASA just makes things up to suit ‘someone’s agenda.
Does the soil saturate more quickly or less quickly when it’s rendered to high density rockflour? High % saturation, and yet low volumetric moisture content. Think of your parking lot during a rain event. Extreme and instantaneous saturation with high discharges. And with that also hydrological and temperature extremes.
Here is the problem I have with stories of some areas getting less or more precipitation. Everything is relative. The worry is that parts of Ireland are particularly dry. My understanding is that Ireland receives 30 to 50 inches of precipitation per year approximately. Eastern Ireland receiving less than western Ireland. If the whole island received 10 inches less in a year the driest part would still receive more than 5 inches more than my hometown.
The whole thing makes me think of a privileged guy complaining to a not so privileged guy that he has had to start eating sirloin rather than ribeye.
According to the Global Warming narrative, the water carrying capacity of the atmosphere should be increasing, causing more intense back-radiation at the surface, a greatly increased warming rate, and presumably more rainfall. And yet, the alarmist prediction is for increasing draughts and desertification? That rainfall and runoff have remained constant falsifies the narrative.