StatForecastingMills

A new climate war brewing: forecasting vs. modeling

A new paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation explains how statistical forecasting methods can provide an important contrast to climate model-based predictions of future global warming. The repeated failures of economic models to generate accurate predictions has taught many economists a healthy scepticism about the ability of their own models, regardless of…

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Finally, a study that shows unreliable models are the root of overwrought ‘extreme weather’ events

Dr. Judith Curry tips me to this new study in GRL: Unreliable climate simulations overestimate attributable risk of extreme weather and climate events Omar Bellprat, Francisco Doblas-Reyes Abstract Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event…

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Initialization practices disqualify UN IPCC global circulation models from use for most climate change forecast purposes

Guest essay by Michael G. Wallace Hydroclimatologist, Albuquerque, NM The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UN IPCC features and endorses decadal global climate forecasting products. Those in turn feed into numerous downscaled regional climate forecasts. In published representations of forecast skills to date, all within this collective appear to include the poorly disclosed…

December 2015 El Nono SST map, source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif

Study: Current climate models misrepresent El Niño

From the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Clues to the fundamental physics of El Niño from millennia-old corals and clams An analysis of fossil corals and mollusk shells from the Pacific Ocean reveals there is no link between the strength of seasonal differences and El Niño, a complex but irregular climate pattern with large impacts on…