Reposted from CFACT By Kenneth Green |May 28th, 2020 Though forecast models have been a problem in the way they are utilized in public and environmental health for decades now,…
Category: Modeling
Another scientist who doesn’t believe in a word he says
Scientist demonstrates Pandemic lockdowns are “only for the little people”. The Leona Helmsley moment for science has arrived. From the bigger they are, the harder they fall department comes this…
Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models
PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again.…
Futile Fussings – a history of graphical failure from cattle to #coronavirus
Guest Post by Kevin Kilty No planning is likely possible without calculations of what the future may hold, but such calculations are fraught with uncertainty when they also involve exponential…
COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection
Reposted from Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on March 25, 2020 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis Introduction There has been much media coverage about the danger to life posed…
What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty
Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you…
Will Humanity Ever Reach 2XCO2? Possibly Not
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog February 1st, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Summary The Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects a growth in energy-based CO2 emissions of +0.6%/yr…
A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling
From Nature Communications Andrea Saltelli Nature Communications volume 10, Article number: 3870 (2019) | Download Citation While the crisis of statistics has made it to the headlines, that of mathematical…
Predicting the impact of climate change on bridge safety
a bridge too far~ctm Lehigh University researchers’ novel approach combining climatology, hydrology, structural engineering, and risk assessment could help communities fortify bridges against scour caused by extreme weather Lehigh University…
Models, Feedbacks, And Propagation Of Error
Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction I had contemplated a contribution involving feedback diagrams, systems of equations, differential equations, and propagation of error ever since Nick Stoke’s original contribution about…
Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections, Mark II.
Guest post by Pat Frank Readers of Watts Up With That will know from Mark I that for six years I have been trying to publish a manuscript with the…
Using an Iterative Adiabatic Model to study the Climate of Titan.
Using an Iterative Adiabatic Model to study the Climate of Titan. Guest Post by P Mulholland and Stephen Wilde. July 2019 “I would rather have questions that can’t be answered…
Remystifying Climate Feedback
By Joe Born 1. Introduction By presenting actual calculation results from a specific feedback-system example, the plots below will put some graphical meat on the verbal bones of Nick Stokes’…
A Third Look at Radiation versus Temperature
Guest post by KEVIN KILTY Introduction In a post on June 8, 2019, Willis Eschenbach showed an interesting plot of monthly average surface temperature against total irradiance absorbed at the…
Earth As A Solar Collector
Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction Within the past week or two we have read posts from Dr. Spencer (6/7/2019), Nick Stokes (6/6/2019), Lord Monckton (6/8/2019), and Willis Eschenbach (6/8/2019)…
New global warming model highlights strong impact of social learning
?????????????????????????~ctm Researchers account for feedback between climate change and human behavior PLOS A new climate modeling approach suggests that social processes strongly affect global warming predictions, and mitigation efforts should…
Modelling the Climate of Noonworld: A New Look at Venus.
Guest Post by Philip Mulholland “Study hard what interests you the most in the most undisciplined, irreverent and original manner possible.” Richard P. Feynman. 1. Introduction: The Science of Climate.…
Natural climate processes overshadow recent human-induced Walker circulation trends
Institute for Basic Science A new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, shows that the recent intensification of the equatorial Pacific wind system, known as Walker…
Model-land, Butterflies and Hawkmoths
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen Welcome to Model-Land, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls! “Model-land is a hypothetical world in which our simulations are perfect, an attractive fairy-tale state…
Early 20th Century Warming – Polar Amplification, Model-Data & Model-Model Comparisons
A Guest Post By Bob Tisdale In this post, we’re going to illustrate how poorly climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report simulate the polar amplification…
Inequality promotes deforestation in Latin America
What can’t you show with models?~ctm From EurekAlert! University of Bern Tropical deforestation is a major contributor to climate change and loss of local and global ecosystem functions. Latin America…
Global Energy Balances … Except When It Doesn’t
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach. I came across an interesting 2014 paper called “The energy balance over land and oceans: an assessment based on direct observations and CMIP5 climate models“. In…
Snowpack declines may stunt tree growth and forests’ ability to store carbon emissions
And if my aunt had…..~ctm From Eurekalert Public Release: 1-Dec-2018 New study findings also suggest a variety of industries in the Northeast could be negatively affected by warming trends, including…
Gavin's Twitter Trick
Last week, Larry Kummer posted a very thoughtful article here on WUWT: A climate science milestone: a successful 10-year forecast! At first glance, this did look like “a successful 10-year…
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