This is one book that is far different, with a difference that is important. It has been written by a real climate scientist.
Category: Uncertainty
Judith Curry Part 1: Presentation about her new book | Tom Nelson Podcast #77
.Tom Nelson Dr. Judith Curry is President and co-founder of CFAN. Following an influential career in academic research and administration, Curry founded CFAN to support the management of weather and…
Climate Uncertainty & Risk: the presentation
The IPCC’s manufacture of consensus has done incalculable harm to climate science and the policy making that is informed by climate science.
Daisy-Chained Uncertainties
What are daisy-chained probabilities? This type of scenario can be stated: “If this, and then this, and then if this then that.” The events have to take place in a…
Unknown, Uncertain or Both?
To make the dicing example into true absolute measurement uncertainty, in which we give a stated value and its known uncertainty but do not (and cannot) know the actual (or…
Limitations of the Central Limit Theorem
The mean found through use of the Central Limit Theorem cannot and will not be less uncertain than the uncertainty of the actual mean of original uncertain measurements themselves.
Plus or Minus Isn’t a Question
It isn’t that there are two possible answers, it is that the answer could be as much as or as little as the “two possible values of the initial value”…
Uncertainty Estimates for Routine Temperature Data Sets Part Two.
In short, what is the proper magnitude of the uncertainty associated with such routine daily temperature measurements?
Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models
PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again.…
Sarewitz’s Science Smörgåsbord
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen What is a smörgåsbord? And who is Sarewitz? From the top, a smörgåsbord is “a buffet meal of various hot and cold hors d’oeuvres,…
Climate’s uncertainty principle
Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Blog, Climate Etc. by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action. Whether we should do anything now to limit our impact on…
100 Years Later: The Flu
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen One hundred years have passed since the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 swept around the world, circumnavigating at least twice between 1918 and 1920, killing…
SIGNAL CONVOLUTION, MIDPOINT OF RANGE, AND ALL THAT
KEVIN KILTY Introduction A guest blogger recently1 made an analysis of the twice per day sampling of maximum and minimum temperature and its relationship to Nyquist rate, in an attempt…
Nyquist, sampling, anomalies and all that
Guest post by Nick Stokes, Every now and then, in climate blogging, one hears a refrain that the traditional min/max daily temperature can’t be used because it “violates Nyquist”. In…
New study attempts to “squeeze out” uncertainty in climate models
From the “we’re gonna need a bigger computer” department. Climate model uncertainties ripe to be squeezed The latest climate models and observations offer unprecedented opportunities to reduce the remaining uncertainties…
Philosophy, uncertainty, probability, consensus, the IPCC, and all that…
So What Happened to the Philosophy? Guest essay by John Ridgway Many years ago, when I was studying at university, an old joke was doing the rounds in the corridors…
Durable Original Measurement Uncertainty
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen Introduction: Temperature and Water Level (MSL) are two hot topic measurements being widely bandied about and vast sums of money are being invested in…
Modern Scientific Controversies Part 1: The Salt Wars
This is the first in a series of several essays that will discuss ongoing scientific controversies, a specific type of which are often referred to in the science press and…
Chaos & Climate – Part 2: Chaos = Stability
Guest Essay by Kip Hansen “…we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states…
Quote of the Week: 'Climate Hawk' says [it's] 'insane to try to predict what’s going to happen in 2100'
WUWT readers may remember ultra climate activist David Roberts, a self described “climate hawk” who wrote regularly for Grist, and became so burned out he had to take a year…
Nassim Taleb Strikes Again
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on his brilliant earlier work “The Black Swan”, Taleb has written a paper called Error, Dimensionality, and Predictability (draft version). I could not even…
The 'uncertainty monster' bites back at IPCC scientists
WUWT readers may recall this paper from Dr. Judith Curry where the “uncertainty monster” was given life. The uncertainty monster has bitten back. It seems that the IPCC botched more…
BEST practices step uncertainty levels in their climate data
Brandon Shollenberger writes in with this little gem: I thought you might be interested in a couple posts I wrote discussing some odd problems with the BEST temperature record. You…
'Climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed'
New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a…
