Model Madness – Parallels Between Failed Climate Models And Failed Coronavirus Models

PODCAST with Dr. Roy Spencer – Climate models and coronavirus models are being used to set public policy. Both have proven to be failures. It’s that old “uncertainty monster” again.…

Sarewitz’s Science Smörgåsbord

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen   What is a smörgåsbord? And who is Sarewitz?  From the top, a smörgåsbord is “a buffet meal of various hot and cold hors d’oeuvres,…

Climate’s uncertainty principle

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Blog, Climate Etc. by Garth Paltridge On the costs and benefits of climate action. Whether we should do anything now to limit our impact on…

100 Years Later: The Flu

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen One hundred years have passed since the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 swept around the world, circumnavigating at least twice between 1918 and 1920, killing…

SIGNAL CONVOLUTION, MIDPOINT OF RANGE, AND ALL THAT

KEVIN KILTY Introduction A guest blogger recently1 made an analysis of the twice per day sampling of maximum and minimum temperature and its relationship to Nyquist rate, in an attempt…

Nyquist, sampling, anomalies and all that

Guest post by Nick Stokes, Every now and then, in climate blogging, one hears a refrain that the traditional min/max daily temperature can’t be used because it “violates Nyquist”. In…

New study attempts to “squeeze out” uncertainty in climate models

From the “we’re gonna need a bigger computer” department. Climate model uncertainties ripe to be squeezed The latest climate models and observations offer unprecedented opportunities to reduce the remaining uncertainties…

Philosophy, uncertainty, probability, consensus, the IPCC, and all that…

So What Happened to the Philosophy? Guest essay by John Ridgway Many years ago, when I was studying at university, an old joke was doing the rounds in the corridors…

Durable Original Measurement Uncertainty

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen   Introduction: Temperature and Water Level (MSL) are two hot topic measurements being widely bandied about and vast sums of money are being invested in…

Modern Scientific Controversies Part 1: The Salt Wars

This is the first in a series of several essays that will discuss ongoing scientific controversies, a specific type of which are often referred to in the science press and…

Chaos & Climate – Part 2: Chaos = Stability

Guest Essay by Kip Hansen     “…we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states…

Quote of the Week: 'Climate Hawk' says [it's] 'insane to try to predict what’s going to happen in 2100'

WUWT readers may remember ultra climate activist David Roberts, a self described “climate hawk” who wrote regularly for Grist, and became so burned out he had to take a year…

Nassim Taleb Strikes Again

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on his brilliant earlier work “The Black Swan”, Taleb has written a paper called Error, Dimensionality, and Predictability (draft version). I could not even…

The 'uncertainty monster' bites back at IPCC scientists

WUWT readers may recall this paper from Dr. Judith Curry where the “uncertainty monster” was given life. The uncertainty monster has bitten back. It seems that the IPCC botched more…

BEST practices step uncertainty levels in their climate data

Brandon Shollenberger writes in with this little gem: I thought you might be interested in a couple posts I wrote discussing some odd problems with the BEST temperature record.  You…

'Climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed'

New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a…

A trifecta of uncertainty: study finds global precipitation is increasing, decreasing, & not changing

This story from the Hockey Schtick is a verification of an analysis on WUWT from Bob Tisdale: No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets According to a paper published today in…

Study: sea level rise acceleration still uncertain, we won't have statistical certainty until 2020-2030

This is a bit of a bombshell to those that claim sea level rise is accelerating and certain. From the University of Southampton: Back to the future to determine if…

New Report Urges Cost-Effective Adaptation To Sea-Level Change

Policies That Try To Stop ‘Global’ Sea-Level Rise Are Costly & Ineffective A new report published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation stresses the importance of revising the current…

Lewandowsky on 'leakage'

No smear psychological categorization mission is too offbeat for Lew. Now he’s on about “leakage”. Try to stifle the images that conjures up while thinking about your choice of preventative…

UN IPCC AR5 climate reports: Conjecture disguised as certainty

UN IPCC WG report process fails to integrate critical information Guest essay by Larry Hamlin The world has experienced over the last 15+ years a remarkable absence of increasing global…

Lovejoy's 99% 'confidence' vs. measurement uncertainty

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley It is time to be angry at the gruesome failure of peer review that allows publication of papers, such as the recent effusion of Professor…

Lewandowsky says we must fear uncertainty, and act on it, because, science

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Stephan Lewandowsky (of retracted Recursive Fury fame ) has just released a paper supporting the “precautionary principle” (h/t JoNova). According to Lewandowsky, the more uncertain…

Another uncertainty for climate models – different results on different computers using the same code

New peer reviewed paper finds the same global forecast model produces different results when run on different computers Did you ever wonder how spaghetti like this is produced and why…