Nassim Taleb Strikes Again

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on his brilliant earlier work “The Black Swan”, Taleb has written a paper called Error, Dimensionality, and Predictability (draft version). I could not even begin to do justice to this tour-de-force, so let me just quote the abstract and encourage you to read the paper.   Abstract—Common intuitions are…

The ‘uncertainty monster’ bites back at IPCC scientists

WUWT readers may recall this paper from Dr. Judith Curry where the “uncertainty monster” was given life. The uncertainty monster has bitten back. It seems that the IPCC botched more than just AR5 in 2013, they also botched their own press conference on the Summary for Policy Makers in Stockholm by not paying attention to…

BEST practices step uncertainty levels in their climate data

Brandon Shollenberger writes in with this little gem: I thought you might be interested in a couple posts I wrote discussing some odd problems with the BEST temperature record.  You can find them here: http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-2/ http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-1/ But I’ll give an overview.  BEST calculated its uncertainty levels by removing 1/8th of its data and rerunning its…