taleb error paper

Nassim Taleb Strikes Again

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on his brilliant earlier work “The Black Swan”, Taleb has written a paper called Error, Dimensionality, and Predictability (draft version). I could not even begin to do justice to this tour-de-force, so let me just quote the abstract and encourage you to read the paper.   Abstract—Common intuitions are…

short-term-uncertainty-phases

The ‘uncertainty monster’ bites back at IPCC scientists

WUWT readers may recall this paper from Dr. Judith Curry where the “uncertainty monster” was given life. The uncertainty monster has bitten back. It seems that the IPCC botched more than just AR5 in 2013, they also botched their own press conference on the Summary for Policy Makers in Stockholm by not paying attention to…

Note the step change. At about 1960, the uncertainty levels plummet, meaning BEST is claiming we became more than twice as certain of our temperature estimates practically overnight.

BEST practices step uncertainty levels in their climate data

Brandon Shollenberger writes in with this little gem: I thought you might be interested in a couple posts I wrote discussing some odd problems with the BEST temperature record.  You can find them here: http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-2/ http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-1/ But I’ll give an overview.  BEST calculated its uncertainty levels by removing 1/8th of its data and rerunning its…

‘Climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed’

New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are…