Category Archives: Modeling

Anti-information in climate models

Posted on May 23, 2013 by

Climate History: Cato Boffins Discovered “Anti-information” By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger While doing some historical studies in preparation for an article in Cato’s Regulation magazine, we found that we  once discovered the information equivalent of antimatter, … Continue reading →

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Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 60 Comments

Climate models getting worse than we thought

Posted on May 16, 2013 by

New paper finds climate models are getting worse rather than better Via the Hockey Schtick: A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the latest climate models are performing even worse than the earlier generations of climate models … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 80 Comments

Global warming and the Titanic II – on an epic collision course?

Posted on May 8, 2013 by

People send me stuff. This morning I got a note about a new study that says: Over the past decade, ice-loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has been accelerating, raising concerns about runaway losses and consequent sea-level rise. But research … Continue reading →

Posted in Greenland ice sheet, Modeling | Tagged , , | 42 Comments

Model says Hawaii will get 2-3 times the number of hurricanes – in contrast to other models saying the opposite

Posted on May 6, 2013 by

From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST, coin flip climatology? More hurricanes for Hawaii? News of a hurricane threat sends our hearts racing, glues us to the Internet for updates, and makes us rush to the store to stock up … Continue reading →

Posted in hurricanes, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , | 41 Comments

On Holland and Bruyère (2013) “Recent Intense Hurricane Response to Global Climate Change”

Posted on April 30, 2013 by

Alternate Title: Climate Science Community Continues to Lose Sight of Reality SkepticalScience is promoting the Holland and Bruyère (2013) paper Recent Intense Hurricane Response to Global Climate Change as proof positive that hypothetical human-induced global warming has caused more intense … Continue reading →

Posted in Alarmism, hurricanes, Modeling | 52 Comments

Hawaiians ‘won’t know what rainfall is’

Posted on April 23, 2013 by

Apologies in advance for the Vinerism. From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST, something that doesn’t seem to be a problem based on the past data I’ve found: Source: USGS It seems clear when you look at the peaks of … Continue reading →

Posted in ENSO, Modeling, Rainfall, Weather | Tagged | 83 Comments

Model-Data Difference – Global Surface Temperature Anomalies – GISS, HADCRUT4 & NCDC

Posted on April 22, 2013 by

I added an update to the end of the recent post Model-Data Comparison with Trend Maps: CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models vs New GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index. That update included two graphs that showed the difference between the multi-model ensemble mean … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | 25 Comments

Model-Data Comparison with Trend Maps: CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models vs New GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index

Posted on April 20, 2013 by

UPDATE: I’ve added graphs of the difference between the observations and the models at the end of the post, under the heading of DIFFERENCE. #### We’ve shown in numerous posts how poorly climate models simulate observed changes in temperature and … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate data, Modeling | 69 Comments

Quote of the Week – an interesting admission at RealClimate

Posted on April 15, 2013 by

Models: some are good, some are not so good, some are useless.

Posted in Modeling, Quote of the Week | 65 Comments

The Sun Was in My Eyes – Was It More Likely Over the Past 3-Plus Decades?

Posted on April 12, 2013 by

Alternate Title: On Pinker et al 2005 and the Positive Trend in the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis-2 Surface Downward Solar Radiation Flux Over at Tallbloke’sTalkshop, Tallbloke has a post about the Pinker et al 2005 paper “Do Satellites Detect Trends in Surface … Continue reading →

Posted in IPCC, Modeling, Solar | 50 Comments

Michael Mann says climate models cannot explain the Medieval Warming Period – I say they can’t even explain the present

Posted on April 11, 2013 by

Ice core data shows CO2 levels changed less than 10 parts per million from 1600-1800 during the MWP. From the Hockey Schtick:  A new paper from Schurer et al (with Mann as co-author) finds that climate “models cannot explain the warm … Continue reading →

Posted in IPCC AR5 leak, MedievalWarmPeriod, Michael E. Mann, Modeling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 113 Comments

Improbable Maximum Precipitation

Posted on April 6, 2013 by

Guest post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new study out from NOAA called “Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and climate change”, paywalled of course, which claims that global warming will lead to a 20%-30% increase in “probable maximum precipitation”. The abstract … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Rainfall | Tagged , , , , | 211 Comments

Climate models aren’t good enough to hindcast, says new study

Posted on March 25, 2013 by

From the University of Gothenburg Climate models are not good enough Only a few climate models were able to reproduce the observed changes in extreme precipitation in China over the last 50 years. This is the finding of a doctoral … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , | 72 Comments

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Posted on March 20, 2013 by

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my … Continue reading →

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Forecasting, Modeling, NASA GISS | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 212 Comments

Model predicts more storm surge, but they use what appears to be a fake photo in the press release:

Posted on March 18, 2013 by

From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert More hurricane surges in the future By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when … Continue reading →

Posted in Alarmism, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 147 Comments

Statistical physics applied to climate modeling

Posted on March 8, 2013 by

From Brown University: Statistical physics offers an approach to studying climate change that could dramatically reduce the time and brute-force computing that current simulation techniques require. The new approach focuses on fundamental forces that drive climate rather than on “following … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling | Tagged , , | 51 Comments

Quote of the Week – blaming Nature for poor model performance

Posted on March 7, 2013 by

There’s not much I can say about this quote from the Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach as it stands on its own quite well. The context of this quote is article on the bust of a forecast that was to be … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, media, Modeling, Quote of the Week | Tagged , , | 97 Comments

CMIP5 Model-Data Comparison: Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Posted on February 28, 2013 by

Guest post b y Bob Tisdale As we’ve seen in numerous model-data comparisons, there are few similarities between modeled and observed surface temperatures and precipitation.  See here, here, here, here, and here for examples.  We’ve compared satellite-era sea surface temperature … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , | 50 Comments

Another Model Fail – (correction added)

Posted on February 25, 2013 by

CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Climate Models: Modeled Relationship between Marine Air Temperature and Sea Surface Temperature Is Wrong Guest post by Bob Tisdale UPDATE 2 (February 27, 2013): A problem was discovered with how the KNMI Climate Explorer had processed the MOHMAT … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, Oceans, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , | 60 Comments

New model says more snow at poles, less elsewhere due to CO2

Posted on February 22, 2013 by

From Princeton and the I haven’t looked out the window lately department: Forecast is for more snow in polar regions, less for the rest of us (Journal of Climate) Posted on February 22, 2013 By Cather­ine Zan­donella, Office of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Modeling, snowfall, Weather | Tagged , , | 127 Comments