Category Archives: Modeling

Major Errors Apparent in Climate Model Evaporation Estimates

Guest essay by Richard J. Petschauer, Senior Member IEEE The physics of evaporation has complications related to what happens at the water / air interface such as wind speed and wave action. However if these factors remain constant, how evaporation … Continue reading

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Posted in Modeling | 92 Comments

Soil microbe GHG feedback ‘less dire than previously thought’

From the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis The tiniest greenhouse gas emitters Climate feedbacks from decomposition by soil microbes are one of the biggest uncertainties facing climate modelers. A new study from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis … Continue reading

Posted in feedbacks, Modeling | 30 Comments

Claim: Climate Models Underestimate Costs to Future Generations

One wonders how they can make claims like that when we see models vs reality like this: Future generations will have to pay more for today’s carbon emissions than what governments across the world currently understand. The climate models used … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | 51 Comments

IPCC WGII report relies on exaggerated climate model results

WGII climate risks overstated and invalid Guest essay by Larry Hamlin The UN IPCC AR5 WGII final climate report has been released. This UN WGII report attempts to evaluate various global risks associated with future climate change. The evaluation process … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | 41 Comments

Why models can’t predict climate accurately

 By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Dr Gavin Cawley, a computer modeler the University of East Anglia, who posts as “dikranmarsupial”, is uncomfortable with my regular feature articles here at WUWT demonstrating the growing discrepancy between the rapid global warming predicted … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | 187 Comments

With ENSO, chaos rules, models drool

A new paper in Nature from the Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, makes a somewhat surprising claim about predicting ENSO events. This is probably one of the shortest abstracts ever, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 59 Comments

Oh Noes! Salamanders shrinking due to climate change

A video of this press release follows. Here’s a screen cap from it. CLEMSON, S.C. — Wild salamanders living in some of North America’s best salamander habitat are getting smaller as their surroundings get warmer and drier, forcing them to … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science, Climate FAIL, Modeling | 99 Comments

New Statistical Models Could Lead to Better Predictions of Ocean Patterns and the Impacts on Weather, Climate and Ecosystems

From the University of Missouri, note the operative word “could”. COLUMBIA, Mo. – The world’s oceans cover more than 72 percent of the earth’s surface, impact a major part of the carbon cycle, and contribute to variability in global climate … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 125 Comments

IPCC Scientists Knew Data and Science Inadequacies Contradicted Certainties Presented to Media, Public and Politicians, But Remained Silent

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Arthur Conan Doyle. … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Modeling | 143 Comments

The Future of Models

Guest essay by Nancy Green At the close of the 19th century physics was settled science. The major questions had been answered and what remained was considered window dressing. Our place in the universe was known: We came from the … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | 162 Comments

It Isn’t How Climate Scientists Communicated their Message; It’s the Message

Over the past few months, there have been a number of articles about how the climate science community could have presented their message differently, or responded differently, so that they could have avoided the problem they’re now facing with the … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate Communications, Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC, Modeling | 142 Comments

Notes on the reax to Lewis and Crok, along with another paper looking at climate model output versus data

While the reactions to Lewis and Crok rage, from intellectually lazy trolling at Dr. Judith Curry’s shop by a trio of commenters using the “nyah, nyah, it’s not peer reviewed!” method, (she now has a technical thread to filter such antics) … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Lewis and Crok, Modeling | 29 Comments

Claim: large Antarctic polynyas to disappear, yet some are still found in satellite imagery

This PR from McGill University  claims that the “deep ocean heat has been unable to get out and melt back the wintertime Antarctic ice”.  That might be true, but still, there are polynyas present in the location of interest (Weddell Sea) … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Climate News, Modeling | 69 Comments

Study: Volcanoes contribute to recent warming ‘hiatus’

Researchers find models must account for volcanic eruptions to accurately predict climate change. From:MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change By the late 1990s, scientists had observed more than two decades of rapid global warming, and … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Modeling, Volcanoes | 182 Comments

Cowtan and Way (2013) Adjustments Exaggerate Climate Model Failings at the Poles and Do Little to Explain the Hiatus

We’ve already discussed Cowtan and Way’s infilling of HADCRUT4 data in the post On Cowtan and Way (2013) “Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends”. The paper is available here. In that earlier … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Cowtan & Way, Modeling, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 82 Comments

Still chasing consensus – on building a climate consensus model

Statistics research could build consensus around climate predictions Philadelphia, PA—Vast amounts of data related to climate change are being compiled by research groups all over the world. Data from these many and varied sources results in different climate projections; hence, … Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus, Climate data, Modeling | 125 Comments

We don’t know clouds

Too many variables like clouds to model future climate with precision Guest essay by Rolf Westgard A new United Nations report suggests an imminent danger from global warming. It states that without drastic action we may have “to develop the … Continue reading

Posted in clouds, Modeling | 82 Comments

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

Note: This is a repost from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog entry last Friday. I’ve done so because it needs the wide distribution that WUWT can offer. The one graph he has produced (see below) says it all. I suggest readers … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Hiatus in Global Warming, Modeling | 174 Comments

New study says ‘robust modeling’ predicted Antarctic sea ice to decrease, but the ice defies modeling

For those of you that have been looking for that point of reference about Antarctica’s increasing sea ice in contrast to the shrinking ice in the Arctic, look no further. A new study recently published in the Quarterly Journal of … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Modeling, Sea ice | 88 Comments

The IPCC discards its models

Who will believe the CMIP5 models, after the IPCC plenary had to discount their temperature projections? Guest essay by Barry Brill Table SPM.2 Projected change in global mean surface temperature (°C) for the mid- and late 21st century relative to … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | 84 Comments