Category Archives: Modeling

Pointless Ohio State study predicts the obvious with models – fish will die as streams dry out

Even more troubling, why does a waste of time study like this get funded by the Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program? I don’t want defense money going to modeling studies on fish and streams that tell … Continue reading

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Posted in Bad science, Modeling, Obvious science | 82 Comments

Claim: Human contribution to glacier mass loss on the increase

From the University of Innsbruck, another modeling study. This news release is available in German. The ongoing global glacier retreat causes rising sea-levels, changing seasonal water availability and increasing geo-hazards. While melting glaciers have become emblematic of anthropogenic climate change, … Continue reading

Posted in Glaciers, Modeling | 123 Comments

SNAP: ‘Data says global cooling, physical model says it has to be warming’

A global temperature conundrum: Cooling or warming climate? From the University of Wisconsin-Madison MADISON, Wis. — When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently requested a figure for its annual report, to show global temperature trends over the last 10,000 … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Global cooling, Global warming, Modeling, Paleoclimatology | 156 Comments

CO2, destroyer of entire continents at the touch of a knob

From the University of New Hampshire  and the department of “CO2 controls everything with a single big red knob” (as stated in the article) comes this modeling inanity. Never mind that after the continental breakup the continent of Antarctica is … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Carbon dioxide, Modeling | 83 Comments

‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’

That headline is attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, but a later more popular version is attributed to Yogi Berra. But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky. That said, whether you are making climate predictions, … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Fun_stuff, Modeling | 119 Comments

‘Climate models not only significantly over-predict observed warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed’

New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Tropics, Uncertainty | 55 Comments

New Climate Model Introduced, now with knobs!

Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…

Posted in Humor, Modeling, Satire | 73 Comments

Claim: Australia drying caused by greenhouse gases

But the paper ignores land use and land cover change From NOAA Headquarters and the “its the evil gases wot dun it and nothing else” department, comes more modeling madness via another poorly written press release by Monica Allen monica.allen@noaa.gov that doesn’t … Continue reading

Posted in Land use land cover change, Modeling, Rainfall | 89 Comments

Solar Notch-Delay Model Released

Readers may recall the contentious discussions that occurred on this thread a couple of weeks back. Both Willis Eschenbach and Dr. Leif Svalgaard were quite combative over the fact that the model data had not been released. But that aside, … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Solar | 633 Comments

Twenty-five Climate Models Can’t All Be Wrong … Or Can They?

From the NIPCC report: As seemingly never-ending work on developing and improving climate models progresses, there is also a seemingly never-ending set of assessments of how that work is progressing; and the study of Maloney et al. (2014) is one … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | 54 Comments

The artist as climate model expert

Guest essay by Charles Battig, M.D. There are reams of publications devoted to the mechanics of computer modeling of global climate dynamics, and the predictive results derived therefrom. Mathematicians, experts in chaos theory, fluid dynamics professionals, climatologists, geologists, oceanographers, satellite-data … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Opinion | 64 Comments

To President Obama: Let’s just assume for a moment we have a climate crisis

As we start hurricane season today, we note the unprecedented 3142 day drought of major hurricane landfalls, shattering a record that goes back to the year 1900. Guest essay by Paul Driessen Despite clear evidence to the contrary, president Obama … Continue reading

Posted in hurricanes, Modeling, Opinion, Politics | 40 Comments

Ross McKitrick’s presentation to FOS

The Friends of Science 11th annual luncheon was on May 13, 2014, featuring Dr. Ross McKitrick, at the Metropolitan Conference Centre, Calgary, Alberta. In it he says: “Climate models appear to overstate the effects of greenhouse gases.  This presentation will … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Hiatus in Global Warming, Modeling, Presentations | 41 Comments

Atmospheric Layers, The Biosphere, The Boundary Layer, Microclimate and Inadequate IPCC Models

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball During a university presentation I said the climate models do not include the Milankovitch Effect. A person challenged me saying he worked on climate models and it was included. My mistake was I forgot … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Modeling | 14 Comments

Tweaking the climate models: Researchers show emissions from forests influence very first stage of cloud formation

Clouds are the largest source of uncertainty in present climate models. Much of the uncertainty surrounding clouds’ effect on climate stems from the complexity of cloud formation. New research from scientists at the CLOUD experiment at CERN, including Carnegie Mellon’s … Continue reading

Posted in clouds, Modeling, Weather | 67 Comments

Model Based Extreme Rainfall Claims Not Supported By Actual Data

By Paul Homewood The Guardian, reporting on some recent research from Oxford University, comment: They say:

Posted in Climate News, extreme weather, Modeling, Rainfall, Weather | 49 Comments

The Global Climate Model clique feedback loop

Elevated from a WUWT comment by Dr. Robert G. Brown, Duke University Frank K. says: You are spot on with your assessment of ECIMs/GCMs. Unfortunately, those who believe in their ability to predict future climate really don’t want to talk … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | 219 Comments

Major Errors Apparent in Climate Model Evaporation Estimates

Guest essay by Richard J. Petschauer, Senior Member IEEE The physics of evaporation has complications related to what happens at the water / air interface such as wind speed and wave action. However if these factors remain constant, how evaporation … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | 92 Comments

Soil microbe GHG feedback ‘less dire than previously thought’

From the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis The tiniest greenhouse gas emitters Climate feedbacks from decomposition by soil microbes are one of the biggest uncertainties facing climate modelers. A new study from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis … Continue reading

Posted in feedbacks, Modeling | 30 Comments

Claim: Climate Models Underestimate Costs to Future Generations

One wonders how they can make claims like that when we see models vs reality like this: Future generations will have to pay more for today’s carbon emissions than what governments across the world currently understand. The climate models used … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, Modeling | 51 Comments

IPCC WGII report relies on exaggerated climate model results

WGII climate risks overstated and invalid Guest essay by Larry Hamlin The UN IPCC AR5 WGII final climate report has been released. This UN WGII report attempts to evaluate various global risks associated with future climate change. The evaluation process … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | 41 Comments

Why models can’t predict climate accurately

 By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Dr Gavin Cawley, a computer modeler the University of East Anglia, who posts as “dikranmarsupial”, is uncomfortable with my regular feature articles here at WUWT demonstrating the growing discrepancy between the rapid global warming predicted … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | 187 Comments

With ENSO, chaos rules, models drool

A new paper in Nature from the Department of Oceanography, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, makes a somewhat surprising claim about predicting ENSO events. This is probably one of the shortest abstracts ever, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 59 Comments

Oh Noes! Salamanders shrinking due to climate change

A video of this press release follows. Here’s a screen cap from it. CLEMSON, S.C. — Wild salamanders living in some of North America’s best salamander habitat are getting smaller as their surroundings get warmer and drier, forcing them to … Continue reading

Posted in Bad science, Climate FAIL, Modeling | 99 Comments

New Statistical Models Could Lead to Better Predictions of Ocean Patterns and the Impacts on Weather, Climate and Ecosystems

From the University of Missouri, note the operative word “could”. COLUMBIA, Mo. – The world’s oceans cover more than 72 percent of the earth’s surface, impact a major part of the carbon cycle, and contribute to variability in global climate … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 125 Comments

IPCC Scientists Knew Data and Science Inadequacies Contradicted Certainties Presented to Media, Public and Politicians, But Remained Silent

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts. Arthur Conan Doyle. … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Modeling | 143 Comments

The Future of Models

Guest essay by Nancy Green At the close of the 19th century physics was settled science. The major questions had been answered and what remained was considered window dressing. Our place in the universe was known: We came from the … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling | 162 Comments

It Isn’t How Climate Scientists Communicated their Message; It’s the Message

Over the past few months, there have been a number of articles about how the climate science community could have presented their message differently, or responded differently, so that they could have avoided the problem they’re now facing with the … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate Communications, Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC, Modeling | 142 Comments

Notes on the reax to Lewis and Crok, along with another paper looking at climate model output versus data

While the reactions to Lewis and Crok rage, from intellectually lazy trolling at Dr. Judith Curry’s shop by a trio of commenters using the “nyah, nyah, it’s not peer reviewed!” method, (she now has a technical thread to filter such antics) … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Lewis and Crok, Modeling | 29 Comments

Claim: large Antarctic polynyas to disappear, yet some are still found in satellite imagery

This PR from McGill University  claims that the “deep ocean heat has been unable to get out and melt back the wintertime Antarctic ice”.  That might be true, but still, there are polynyas present in the location of interest (Weddell Sea) … Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Climate News, Modeling | 69 Comments

Study: Volcanoes contribute to recent warming ‘hiatus’

Researchers find models must account for volcanic eruptions to accurately predict climate change. From:MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change By the late 1990s, scientists had observed more than two decades of rapid global warming, and … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, Modeling, Volcanoes | 182 Comments

Cowtan and Way (2013) Adjustments Exaggerate Climate Model Failings at the Poles and Do Little to Explain the Hiatus

We’ve already discussed Cowtan and Way’s infilling of HADCRUT4 data in the post On Cowtan and Way (2013) “Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends”. The paper is available here. In that earlier … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Cowtan & Way, Modeling, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 82 Comments

Still chasing consensus – on building a climate consensus model

Statistics research could build consensus around climate predictions Philadelphia, PA—Vast amounts of data related to climate change are being compiled by research groups all over the world. Data from these many and varied sources results in different climate projections; hence, … Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus, Climate data, Modeling | 125 Comments

We don’t know clouds

Too many variables like clouds to model future climate with precision Guest essay by Rolf Westgard A new United Nations report suggests an imminent danger from global warming. It states that without drastic action we may have “to develop the … Continue reading

Posted in clouds, Modeling | 82 Comments

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong

Note: This is a repost from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog entry last Friday. I’ve done so because it needs the wide distribution that WUWT can offer. The one graph he has produced (see below) says it all. I suggest readers … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Hiatus in Global Warming, Modeling | 174 Comments