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Initialization practices disqualify UN IPCC global circulation models from use for most climate change forecast purposes

Guest essay by Michael G. Wallace Hydroclimatologist, Albuquerque, NM The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change UN IPCC features and endorses decadal global climate forecasting products. Those in turn feed into numerous downscaled regional climate forecasts. In published representations of forecast skills to date, all within this collective appear to include the poorly disclosed…

Current El Nono SST map, source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif

Study: Current climate models misrepresent El Niño

From the UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Clues to the fundamental physics of El Niño from millennia-old corals and clams An analysis of fossil corals and mollusk shells from the Pacific Ocean reveals there is no link between the strength of seasonal differences and El Niño, a complex but irregular climate pattern with large impacts on…

Median time of anthropogenic emergence and zonally averaged signal and noise for climate means and extremes are shown. Maps of median TAE averaged across 23 model simulations for (a) and (b) mean surface air temperature, (c) and (d) highest daily maximum temperature, (e) and (f) lowest daily minimum temperature, (g) and (h) total precipitation, and (i), (j) maximum 1-d precipitation for (a), (c), (e), (g) and (i) June-August and (b), (d), (f), (h) and (j) December-February. Zonally averaged values of signal (red) and noise (black) are shown where signal is the mean difference in the variable between 1989-2039 and 1860-1910, and noise is the standard deviation of the variable for 1860-1910.

Hilarious claim: “we know when global (cough, cough) warming first appeared in the temperature record, er, models”

From the UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES (via Eurekalert) and the “Where’s Waldo?” department comes this hilarious claim. Why hilarious? Because the headline says “global warming”, yet the research says that warming appeared in different decades in different parts of the world. So much for the “global” part. But, it gets better, the money quote says the…

michaels-102-ipcc-models-vs-reality

How reliable are the climate models?

Guest essay by Mike Jonas There are dozens of climate models. They have been run many times. The great majority of model runs, from the high-profile UK Met Office’s Barbecue Summer to Roy Spencer’s Epic Fail analysis of the tropical troposphere, have produced global temperature forecasts that later turned out to be too high. Why?…