Warming could raise UK flood damage bill by 20%, Say Make-Believe Computer Simulations


By Paul Homewood

h/t Paul Kolk

The usual scaremongering from the BBC:

Researchers have produced a detailed “future flood map” of Britain – simulating the impact of flooding as climate change takes its toll.

It has revealed that annual damage caused by flooding could increase by more than a fifth in today’s terms over the next century.

That could be reduced if pledges to reduce global carbon emissions are met.


Meanwhile back in the real world, real flood experts have analysed historical flood trends, and found that the percentage of the population at risk has actually declined since 1870 in Britain:


The same study concludes that normalised economic losses have fallen sharply since the 1950s across Europe as a whole, as has the number of people affected in England:

And a 2014 study by Stevens et al found no long term trends in flooding in the UK, once allowance was made for new house build on flood plains; indeed there has been a marked decline in the incidence of the most severe floods:



But the BBC prefers the make-believe computer simulations!

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Ireneusz Palmowski
March 7, 2023 11:06 pm

Snowfall in Ireland, England and Benelux.
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John V. Wright
March 7, 2023 11:18 pm

Yes Paul, thank you. The other story doing the rounds in the Marxist organisation they call the BBC is the devastating DROUGHT in East Anglia…lowest rainfall in 30 years…climate change threatens farmers livelihoods…vegetable shortages looming…blah blah blah. Quite how the drought ties up with an increased risk of flood damage they have not managed to explain.
More seriously, the BBC remains the go-to ‘news’ organisation for most Brits and its coverage of climate change topics is shameful. Most viewers and listeners have no idea that there is a scientific debate about these issues because the BBC’s unbalanced approach is that everyone agrees that there is a climate emergency and if you don’t go along with the hysteria then you are a dreadful human being who doesn’t care about the earth.
Fortunately, as an experienced former journalist, I can see through editorial bias but the effect it has on people is shocking. I have conversations with apparently intelligent folk who believe the most incredible rubbish. They have never heard of Richard Lindzen and Will Happer (needless to say they and other sceptics are not allowed anywhere near the British public) and I appear to be alone among my friends and colleagues who actually study what is going on, read the facts and figures and ask awkward questions. Basically, the BBC has brainwashed Britain.

Ireneusz Palmowski
March 7, 2023 11:26 pm

Frost in the UK is about to get even stronger.
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michael hart
March 7, 2023 11:56 pm

More than twenty years ago a land-drainage friend told me about the housing development corruption that meant many new UK houses were being built where they shouldn’t on flood plains.

And then the Netherlands have stolen a lot of land from the North Sea.
A Dutch acquaintance explained to me the process of dredging to build flood defences: “All you need is an asshole on a boat”.

March 7, 2023 11:56 pm

“It has revealed that annual damage caused by flooding could increase by more than a fifth in today’s terms over the next century.”

20% over the next few decades? Sounds cheap once one factors in inflation and the trend towards denser, more intensive development (single family dwelling -> townhouses -> small apartment boxes -> large high rises (with proportionately more commercial and infrastructure development).

Reporting, journalism, whatever, is a lost art. Today’s news is just political propaganda or press releases – reporters never even bother to do the basics like making sure “who, what, when, where, and how” are answered. So annoying!

Reply to  PCman999
March 8, 2023 3:06 am

Reporting, journalism, whatever, is a lost art.

It is not “lost”, as if through inattention; it is being purged. Journalism schools are explicitly, in plain language, criticising objectivity and urging advocacy.

Stanford journalism professor, Ted Glasser, insists that journalism needs to “free itself from this notion of objectivity to develop a sense of social justice.” He rejects the notion that journalism is based on objectivity and said that he views “journalists as activists because journalism at its best is all about morality.” Thus, “Journalists need to be overt and candid advocates for social justice, and it’s hard to do that under the constraints of objectivity.”

March 8, 2023 12:10 am

Assuming an average of 1% annual inflation in property values – which is very low historically – the value of property will double in 70 years, by the end of the century.

If flood damage costs only increase by 20%, that means the BBC is predicting the number of flood damage incidents will decline to a fifth of what we see today.
Lots of numbers.
Hard for BBC arts graduates (or journalists as they like to call themselves) to understand.
Really should use pictures of furry animals, rather than arithmetic.

Kim Swain
March 8, 2023 12:32 am

I note that the study is based on the UK Met Office’s UK Climate Projections data using RCP8.5. That projection’s highest sea-level rise (95th percentile) for London to 2100 is nearly 4 times that of NASA’s current global measurement since 1993. London’s sea level rise might be greater than a global average as I understand that the UK is rising in the north and sinking in the south through isostatic rebound but using the improbable RCP8.5 surely doesn’t provide confidence in the paper. Press commentary suggests that the paper considers lower warming (but still finds increased flood risk) but I haven’t been able to find how they did this in the paper – perhaps other commentators might be able to determine this.

Peta of Newark
March 8, 2023 1:38 am

What exactly is The Panic about here?
The picture we see from BBC says that the ‘estimated’ cost of floods is presently £700Million

So if that goes up by 20% over (how many) decades, that’s only £840Million
That’s perfectly nothing so what is the issue here?

Vaguely on-topic:”Some believe the Government is now in danger of committing a misselling scandal to match that of the promotion of diesel cars in the early 2000s by the Labour government


haha:mis-selling scandal”
Could any two/three words better describe Climate Change

I tried to do one of my infamous NumberCrunches on a ground source pump
If you wanted (a modest flow) just 1kW of heat into your house 24/7 for 200 days (UK winter) you would need 2,700 tonnes of damp earth/soil to lower its temp by 1° Celsius
(Double that if the soil was/is dry)

How much dirt is in your garden?
wrap the garden up warm while you’re treating yourself

edit to PS
The heat pump would use (if it’s a good one) 8kWh per day to achieve that = exactly doubling (what UK Gov regards as) typical UK household electricity consumption.
And if you drive an EV for 8,000 miles per years, that’s another 8kWh per day

So just heat-pumps and EVs will triple UK electricity demand.

Last edited 19 days ago by Peta of Newark
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 8, 2023 5:26 am

Your estimates are in line with Prof Michael Kelly’s Electrical & Electronic Eng, Camb U.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 8, 2023 8:09 am

The EVs and heat pumps will also require replacing about 360,000 kms of the 450,000 kms of Low Voltage networks in the UK at an estimated cost a few years back of £60bn – today much more.

Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 8, 2023 12:11 pm

The EVs and heat pumps will also require replacing about 360,000 kms of the 450,000 kms of Low Voltage networks in the UK at an estimated cost a few years back of £60bn”

That works out to £166,666,667 per kilometer.
Considering much of that upgrade will be urban streets, I suspect you are correct and the estimate is much too low.

March 8, 2023 1:57 am

Please help the Brits get that maniacal propaganda machine defunded as soon as possible.


“…annual damage caused by flooding could increase by more than a fifth in today’s terms over the next century.

That could be reduced if pledges to reduce global carbon emissions are met.”

… and there’s the propaganda for Nut Zero.

Reply to  Alpha
March 8, 2023 4:07 am

What a wonderful world it would be if I could make negative donations to entities, (entititties?,) like the BBC and PBS.

Reply to  Alpha
March 8, 2023 9:56 am

Defunding is easy, punters just need to stop paying the licence fee!

Reply to  Alpha
March 8, 2023 3:13 pm

Floods could be reduced in UK if they restarted river dredging and other flood mitigation that were stopped due to green campagning. the green blob has to have all “natural” landscapes.

Reply to  Alpha
March 9, 2023 1:47 am

Anyone living in the UK should cancel his or her subscription to the BBC NOW. Ignore the warning letters that will arrive – they are empty threats. Even if BBC inspectors turn up on your doorstep, you have the right to bar them from entering.

March 8, 2023 3:15 am

In this case …

Computer Simulation = Excel Spreadsheet

… although I wouldn’t be surprised if they were still using Lotus123.

Reply to  rovingbroker
March 8, 2023 4:26 am

It’s the awe politicians have for IT, AI etc

“…‘how [do we] stop a very well-fuelled future-planning algorithm that has been running a long time?’. – Conservative committee member Katherine Fletcher, Science and Technology Committee

The three witnesses – policy executives from Google, Microsoft and BT – looked completely stunned. As well they might. ‘I don’t know what a long-term planning algorithm is’, replied Hugh Milward, general manager for Microsoft’s UK legal team. ‘It is certainly not something we are developing at Microsoft.’
Their confusion is understandable. First, no artificial-intelligence models are deployed today for ‘long-term planning’, nor would they be even remotely capable of it.” 

Last edited 19 days ago by strativarius
March 8, 2023 4:05 am

Correction Just In: Inflation WILL raise UK flood damage bill by MOAR than 20%.

March 8, 2023 4:17 am

The only floods round here are Thames Water related….

Reply to  strativarius
March 8, 2023 10:48 am

Well the frequency of use of the Thames barrier has been steadily increasing so that would seem to be consistent with predictions.

Reply to  Phil.
March 9, 2023 1:52 am

Well the frequency of use of the Thames barrier has been steadily increasing so that would seem to be consistent with predictions.

Phil is incorrect or merely lying as usual. Real data shows otherwise:

Last edited 18 days ago by Graemethecat
The Other Nick
March 8, 2023 5:14 am

Well it is a computer model so it has to be 100% correct. They say so. We believe.
Now back to reality.
What happens in the northern side of the globe is their issue; in the lower half, OZ, t’s a different problem.
1.     When you build on a flood plain and it rains like hell for a period, you get flooded. Note the government said you can build there.
2.     When you build on a flood plain and it rains like hell and the state government cant think about flooding, you get flooded.
3.     When you build on the banks of the Murray and it rains like hell and the state government cant think about flooding, you get flooded.
4.     When you build on near a river you get flooded.

Computer models of flooding are akin to computer models of sea levels rising. Scare mongering.
Funny how down here in OZ Tim Flannery after predicting sea level rising and other climate things purchased a house on Coba Point on the Hawkesbury.
Following on with Julia Gillard’s new home in Brighton, a staunch believer in good old Timmy.
Believe the computer models, they are true.
But they lead to a point of stupidity.

March 8, 2023 5:34 am

Flood damage costs the UK an estimated £700m annually”

Net Zero has pushed electricity up £2000 a MWh This is costing £60 billion a year

Adaptation is cheaper than mitigation.

the BBC just proved it.

March 8, 2023 5:36 am

Flood damage costs the UK an estimated £700m annually”

Immigrants are costing the UK £3 billion a year

March 8, 2023 6:46 am

We just need to harness the flood water and use it for hydro power – then we can phase out all of the expensive and unreliable wind turbines! we have to seize the opportiunities 😀

As for the BBC – (lame) entertainment and clickbait are their main contributions to the UK these days.

As a UK tax payer I thoroughly enjoy making involuntary donations to Gormless politicians, Left wing (but unbiased?) Broadcasting frauds and foreign subsidy miners – we’re living the dream!

This website is all that keeps me sane (and calm).

March 8, 2023 7:30 am

The Figure 1 map is not of flood trend changes, but of percentage of population being in the areas of “the 100 year flood”. This study defined the area of “the 100 year flood” as floodplains determined by 1971-2000 historical scenarios and average return period of 100 years. This study does not account for floodplain areas changing, such as from sea level rise.

Ireneusz Palmowski
March 8, 2023 8:29 am

Kingston Deverill
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Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
March 8, 2023 8:57 am

Hot Globally warmed air with absorbed moisture forced to a higher elevation is the root cause of that snowfall….every warmist knows that….


Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  DMacKenzie
March 8, 2023 9:54 am

No, it’s the frigid Arctic air that freezes the moisture from the south.

March 8, 2023 10:01 am

I live 1000 feet above sea level on the side of a hill. I’ll start worrying when I see an ark sailing by.

The BBC is a disgrace, I don’t understand why anyone supports them by paying the licence fee.

Kim Swain
Reply to  Jackdaw
March 8, 2023 11:19 am

Unfortunately, it is not voluntary and the fine for not paying (and watching TV) is up to £1,000.

March 8, 2023 1:44 pm

At least it doesn’t appear to be global ( assuming warming = sea level rise = storm flooding).

March 8, 2023 3:06 pm

How do these mongrels keep their jobs?

Ireneusz Palmowski
March 8, 2023 11:51 pm

Snowfall in Ireland and England.
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