Another ‘worse than we thought’ study: Warming to be 15% worse than worst case scenario

From the ‘scare tactical modeling’ department comes this press release today, which has been circulating to news media until the embargo lifted this morning. You’ll see all sorts of caterwauling…

It’s worse than They thought: warming is slower than predicted

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley When The Times, a Murdoch paper previously slavish in kow-towing to the Party Line on climate, leads with a story picked up from the more…

A Consensus Of Convenience

We publish this here, not to confirm that it is correct, but to stimulate the debate needed to determine whether or not it is correct or if it’s simply an…

Temperature and Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Dr. Curry’s excellent website, she’s discussing the Red and Blue Team approach. If I ran the zoo and could re-examine the climate question,…

Evaporation Redux

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking again about the question of evaporation and rainfall. I wrote about it here a few years ago. Short version—when the earth’s…

Estimating Cloud Feedback Using CERES Data

.Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As usual, Dr. Judith Curry’s Week In Review – Science Edition contains interesting studies. I took a look at one entitled “Cloud feedback mechanisms and…

Yale study tries to prop up shrinking climate sensitivity

From Yale News: Climate models have underestimated Earth’s sensitivity to CO2 changes, study finds A Yale University study says global climate models have significantly underestimated how much the Earth’s surface…

A ground-breaking new paper putting climate models to the test yields an unexpected result – steps and pauses in the climate signal

A ground-breaking new paper has recently been published  in Earth System Dynamics that really turns the idea of direct linear warming of the atmosphere on it’s ear, suggesting a “store…

On the Reproducibility of the IPCC’s climate sensitivity

Guest essay by Dr. Antero Ollila The highest ranked scientific journal Nature published on the 28th of July 2016 an article based on the survey for 1,576 researchers. More than…

Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Estimates of future atmospheric CO2 values as a result of future emissions, called “scenarios”, fall into two camps—demand driven, and supply driven. A recent paper…

Physical Constraints on the Climate Sensitivity

Guest essay by George White For matter that’s absorbing and emitting energy, the emissions consequential to its temperature can be calculated exactly using the Stefan-Boltzmann Law, 1) P = εσT4…

Interesting climate sensitivity analysis: Do variations in CO2 actually cause significant global warming?

Guest essay by David Bennett Laing In 1900, Knut Ångström concluded from a famous experiment that very little warming results from a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Although no similar experiment has…

Leading climate scientist Cess admits mathematical errors in the AGW theory

Guest essay by Kyoji Kimoto Dr. Robert D. Cess led the following Intercomparison Projects of GCMs for the IPCC Assessment Reports. 1989: Interpretation of Cloud-Climate Feedback as Produced by 14…

New Climate Paper: 7 – 13°C / doubling of CO2

Guest essay by Eric Worrall A paper published in Nature claims an estimated 7 – 13c / doubling of CO2 – an estimate so wild it has drawn criticism from…

Effective Radiation Level (ERL) Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Lord Monckton has initiated an interesting discussion of the effective radiation level. Such discussions are of value to me because they strike off ideas of…

Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global warming – part 3

Part III: How the feedback factor f was exaggerated By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In this series (Part 1 and Part 2) I am exploring the cumulative errors, large and…

Cloud Feedback

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the comments to Christopher Monckton’s latest post, Nick Stokes drew attention to Soden and Held’s analysis of feedback in the climate models. I reproduce their Table…

Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global warming–part 2

Part II: How the central estimate of pre-feedback warming was exaggerated By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In this series I am exploring the cumulative errors, large and small, through which…

Feet of clay: The official errors that exaggerated global warming

Part I: How the central estimate of global warming was exaggerated By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley In this new series, I propose to explore the sequence of errors, large and…

Willis and I walk the Planck

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I do apologize for not having replied sooner to my friend the irrepressible, irascible, highly improbable but always fascinating Willis Eschenbach, who on August 15…

Putting It On The Line

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Thanks to an alert commenter, half of my last post was shown to be in error. Like most folks, I really, really hate to be…

Pre- and Post-Feedback Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE TWO: Rather than trying to cooper up the errors, I have simply removed the incorrect sections and left the calculation of the Planck feedback intact. I…

Introducing the global-warming exaggeration factor X

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Recently I provided – based on a characteristically interesting email from Roger Taguchi – a demonstration that IPCC has at least doubled true…

IPCC has at least doubled true climate sensitivity: a demonstration

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Roger Taguchi, who often circulates fascinating emails on climatological physics, has sent me a beautifully simple and elegant demonstration that IPCC has at…