Climate Scientists Step Up the Climate Emergency Narrative

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Even worse than we thought ™. Despite a recent sanity test study which demonstrated that high end climate models hindcast impossible Eocene temperatures, climate scientists are pushing ahead anyway with their new, even more extreme climate projections. Climate worst-case scenarios may not go far enough, cloud data shows Modelling suggests…

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Climate science does an about-face: dials back the ‘worst case scenario’

Opinion by Anthony Watts A surprising comment published January 29th in the leading scientific journal Nature said; “Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading – Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome — more-realistic baselines make for better policy.” This has thrown a monkey wrench in hundreds…

Top and Bottom of the Atmosphere

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Some days I learn a lot. Today was one of them. Let me start at the start. Back in 1987 in a paper entitled ‘The Role of Earth Radiation Budget Studies in Climate and General Circulation Research“, a prescient climate scientist yclept Veerabhadran Ramanathan pointed out that the poorly-named “greenhouse…

Two more degrees by 2100!

From Dr Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 27, 2019 by curryja | by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C? This post was originally intended as a short comment questioning certain aspects of the methodology in JC’s post of December 23, “3 degrees C?”. But every methodology is bound to have…

A Decided Lack Of Equilibrium

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the lack of progress in estimating the “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, known as ECS. The ECS measures how much the temperature changes when the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes, in about a thousand years after all the changes have equilibrated. The ECS is measured in degrees C per…

3 degrees C?

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 23, 2019 by curryja | by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’?  A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C. There has been much discussion over…

How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2

Thought Experiment; Guest post by Bob Irvine How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2. What follows is a discussion only. Introduction; The IPCC defines Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) “…as the global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. It is likely to be in the…