Climate ECS Closure

There are two notions of ECS. The first is without feedbacks (mainly water vapor and clouds). It estimates a simple non-condensing gas CO2 doubling. AR4 implicitly had that at a…

Surface Response to Increased Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See update at the end] Thanks to the excellent comments by folks here on my post “A Request for Peer Preview“, I thought I’d go…

High end of climate sensitivity in new climate models seen as less plausible

Researchers at Princeton University and the University of Miami reported that newer models with a high “climate sensitivity” — meaning they predict much greater global warming from the same levels…

CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution

If our planet had been designed with comparative high-latitude studies in mind, it couldn’t have been better arranged than it is.

Climate Sensitivity Estimates: Declining or Not?

Guest “climate sensitivity explaining by David Middleton ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (AKA equilibrium sensitivity) TCR: Transient Climate Response (AKA transient sensitivity) AKA: Also Known As Here’s how the folks a…

Cooling The Hothouse

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I see that a new study has been hyped with the headline: Earth barreling toward ‘Hothouse’ state not seen in 50 million years,epic new climate…

An estimate of Climate Sensitivity

This arithmetic shows that Man-made additions of CO2 to the atmosphere can only have very marginal further temperature effect into next century and beyond.

New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to…

Pat Michaels: “Worse Than We Thought”

Guest “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” by David Middleton Climate Predictions “Worse Than We Thought”By Patrick J. MichaelsJuly 14, 2020 As the temperature of the eastern…

Climate Scientists Step Up the Climate Emergency Narrative

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Even worse than we thought ™. Despite a recent sanity test study which demonstrated that high end climate models hindcast impossible Eocene temperatures, climate scientists…

Climate science does an about-face: dials back the ‘worst case scenario’

Opinion by Anthony Watts A surprising comment published January 29th in the leading scientific journal Nature said; “Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading – Stop using the…

Top and Bottom of the Atmosphere

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Some days I learn a lot. Today was one of them. Let me start at the start. Back in 1987 in a paper entitled ‘The…

Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on January 10, 2020 by curryja | by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth…

Two more degrees by 2100!

From Dr Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 27, 2019 by curryja | by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C? This post was originally intended as…

A Decided Lack Of Equilibrium

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the lack of progress in estimating the “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, known as ECS. The ECS measures how much the temperature…

3 degrees C?

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 23, 2019 by curryja | by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’? …

Comment by Cowtan & Jacobs on Lewis & Curry 2018 and Reply: Part 1

From Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 16, 2019 by niclewis | 52 Comments By Nic Lewis A comment on LC18 (recent paper by Lewis and Curry on…

Sour milk, sourer grapes and the unnatural greenhouse effect

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I am most grateful to Bob Irvine, in a recent column here, for repeating a point that I have tried to make many times, to…

How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2

Thought Experiment; Guest post by Bob Irvine How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2. What follows is a discussion only. Introduction; The IPCC…

Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on October 18, 2019 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to…

Radiation versus Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [SEE UPDATE AT THE END] Due to the recent posts by Lord Monkton and Nick Stokes, I’ve been thinking about the relationship between radiation and…

What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity

Posted on April 1, 2019 by curryja | Reposted from Climate Etc. by Judith Curry Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible? For background, see these previous…

What’s the worst case? A possibilistic approach

Reposted from Climate Etc. Posted on March 27, 2019 by curryja | by Judith Curry Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications…