Top and Bottom of the Atmosphere

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Some days I learn a lot. Today was one of them. Let me start at the start. Back in 1987 in a paper entitled ‘The Role of Earth Radiation Budget Studies in Climate and General Circulation Research“, a prescient climate scientist yclept Veerabhadran Ramanathan pointed out that the poorly-named “greenhouse…

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Two more degrees by 2100!

From Dr Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 27, 2019 by curryja | by Vaughan Pratt An alternative perspective on 3 degrees C? This post was originally intended as a short comment questioning certain aspects of the methodology in JC’s post of December 23, “3 degrees C?”. But every methodology is bound to have…

A Decided Lack Of Equilibrium

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the lack of progress in estimating the “equilibrium climate sensitivity”, known as ECS. The ECS measures how much the temperature changes when the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes, in about a thousand years after all the changes have equilibrated. The ECS is measured in degrees C per…

3 degrees C?

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on December 23, 2019 by curryja | by Judith Curry Is 3 C warming over the 21st century now the ‘best estimate’?  A reframing of how we think about climate change over the 21st century, and my arguments for 1 C. There has been much discussion over…

How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2

Thought Experiment; Guest post by Bob Irvine How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2. What follows is a discussion only. Introduction; The IPCC defines Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) “…as the global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. It is likely to be in the…

Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on October 18, 2019 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to CO2 be estimated from historical climate change?” by Gregory et al.[i] makes a number of assertions, many uncontentious but others in my view unjustified, misleading…

Radiation versus Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [SEE UPDATE AT THE END] Due to the recent posts by Lord Monkton and Nick Stokes, I’ve been thinking about the relationship between radiation and temperature. So I turned to the CERES dataset. Here is a scatterplot of the monthly global average surface temperature versus the monthly global average downwelling…