Outside The Black Box

Models that need model-specific input to replicate the known past, violate the most basic criteria of science to earn the label “scientifically proven”, independent of the “proven physics” they are…

Restoring The Equilibrium

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In this post, I will both provide additional data for and also correct an error and a claim in my post entitled Where Is The…

Into The Black Box

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Through what in my life is a typical series of misunderstandings and coincidences, I ended up looking at the average model results from the Climate…

Nearly 140 Scientific Papers Detail The Minuscule Effect CO2 Has On Earth’s Temperature

As of 2016 this list had only 50 papers on it (as indicated by the web address). In less than 6 years the list has grown to 137 (as of…

Where Is The Top Of The Atmosphere?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In my last post, entitled Advection, I was discussing the online MODTRAN Infrared Light In The Atmosphere model. A commenter pointed out that in the past I’d…

“Insulate Britain” Compares Climate Protest Deaths to WW2 Collateral Damage

The leaders of Insulate Britain, who continuously promote climate alarm, apparently think it is acceptable for sick people to die in ambulances which can’t get past his illegal climate protest…

How to constrain unconstrained global-warming predictions

Suddenly, the hitherto-unconstrainable equilibrium sensitivities become constrained – and their entire interval turns out to be below the lower bound of the currently-imagined interval. Inserting the 255 K emission temperature…

Climate Sensitivity to CO2, what do we know? Part 2.

By Andy May In Part 1, we introduced the concepts of climate sensitivity to CO2, often called ECS or TCR. The IPCC prefers a TCR of about 1.8°C/2xCO2 (IPCC, 2013,…

Climate Sensitivity to CO2, what do we know? Part 1.

The first version of this post had an error in Figure 1. It has been fixed along with the associated text (7/5/2021). By Andy May The IPCC claims, in their…

A global context for Man-made Climate Concerns

Therefore whatever CO2 reductions and sacrifices of wellbeing are made in the Western World will be overtaken and soon exceeded by them. It should be realised that climate change policies…

Climate ECS Closure

There are two notions of ECS. The first is without feedbacks (mainly water vapor and clouds). It estimates a simple non-condensing gas CO2 doubling. AR4 implicitly had that at a…

Surface Response to Increased Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See update at the end] Thanks to the excellent comments by folks here on my post “A Request for Peer Preview“, I thought I’d go…

High end of climate sensitivity in new climate models seen as less plausible

Researchers at Princeton University and the University of Miami reported that newer models with a high “climate sensitivity” — meaning they predict much greater global warming from the same levels…

CO2 sensitivity: the polar solution

If our planet had been designed with comparative high-latitude studies in mind, it couldn’t have been better arranged than it is.

Climate Sensitivity Estimates: Declining or Not?

Guest “climate sensitivity explaining by David Middleton ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (AKA equilibrium sensitivity) TCR: Transient Climate Response (AKA transient sensitivity) AKA: Also Known As Here’s how the folks a…

Cooling The Hothouse

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I see that a new study has been hyped with the headline: Earth barreling toward ‘Hothouse’ state not seen in 50 million years,epic new climate…

An estimate of Climate Sensitivity

This arithmetic shows that Man-made additions of CO2 to the atmosphere can only have very marginal further temperature effect into next century and beyond.

New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns

An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:

Emergent constraints on TCR and ECS from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

I note that Earth Systems Dynamics published the paper despite one of the two peer reviewers recommending against acceptance without further major revisions. But neither of the reviewers appear to…

Pat Michaels: “Worse Than We Thought”

Guest “it’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” by David Middleton Climate Predictions “Worse Than We Thought”By Patrick J. MichaelsJuly 14, 2020 As the temperature of the eastern…

Climate Scientists Step Up the Climate Emergency Narrative

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Even worse than we thought ™. Despite a recent sanity test study which demonstrated that high end climate models hindcast impossible Eocene temperatures, climate scientists…

Climate science does an about-face: dials back the ‘worst case scenario’

Opinion by Anthony Watts A surprising comment published January 29th in the leading scientific journal Nature said; “Emissions – the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading – Stop using the…

Top and Bottom of the Atmosphere

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Some days I learn a lot. Today was one of them. Let me start at the start. Back in 1987 in a paper entitled ‘The…

Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on January 10, 2020 by curryja | by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth…