Determination of the CO2 doubling global mean temperature from observations

Guest essay by Girma Orssengo, PhD Orssengo at lycos dot com What is the expected global warming if the atmospheric CO2 concentration doubles from 400 to 800 ppm? The answer to this question is essential for our understanding of the earth’s climate. Unfortunately, the estimates for the CO2 doubling global mean temperature (GMT) vary by…

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Claim: Climate sensitivity narrowed to 2.8°C

From the University of Exeter, comes this statistical prediction that doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of press, and rightly so. Read on. Future Climate Change Revealed by Current Climate Variations Uncertainty surrounding the extent of future climate change could be dramatically reduced by studying year-on-year global temperature fluctuations, new research has shown. A…

Delta T and Delta F

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The fundamental and to me incorrect assumption at the core of the modern view of climate is that changes in temperature are a linear function of changes in forcing. Forcing is defined as the net downwelling radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). According to this theory, in order…

Where The Temperature Rules The Sun

I’ve held for a long time that there is a regulatory mechanism in the tropics that keeps the earth’s temperature within very narrow bounds on average (e.g. ± 0.3°C over the 20th Century). This mechanism is the timing and amount of the daily emergence of the cumulus cloud field, and the timing and emergence of…

A Consensus Of Convenience

We publish this here, not to confirm that it is correct, but to stimulate the debate needed to determine whether or not it is correct or if it’s simply an exercise in curve fitting. ~ctm George White, August 2017 Climate science is the most controversial science of the modern era. A reason why the controversy…

Temperature and Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Dr. Curry’s excellent website, she’s discussing the Red and Blue Team approach. If I ran the zoo and could re-examine the climate question, I’d want to look at what I see as the central misunderstanding in the current theory of climate. This is the mistaken idea that changes…

Evaporation Redux

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking again about the question of evaporation and rainfall. I wrote about it here a few years ago. Short version—when the earth’s surface gets warmer, we get more evaporation and thus more rainfall. Since what comes down must go up, we can use the Tropical Rainfall Measuring…