Essay by Eric Worrall
WUWT recently reported how Conservative Party rebels sabotaged Liz Truss’ attempt to increase domestic gas availability by allowing fracking. Britain might be about to pay the price.
National Grid warns Britons of blackouts on ‘really cold’ evenings
FT conference hears of various ‘unlikely’ scenarios in which UK might not have sufficient energy
Nathalie Thomas, Energy Correspondent OCTOBER 18 2022
National Grid’s chief executive has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on “really, really cold” weekdays in January and February in the event of reduced gas imports from Europe.
John Pettigrew said the company would have to impose rolling power cuts on “those deepest darkest evenings in January and February” if generators failed to secure enough gas from the continent to meet demand, particularly if the country suffers a cold snap.
Pettigrew’s comments at the Financial Times’s Energy Transition Summit came after National Grid, which oversees Britain’s electricity and gas systems, this month took the unusual step of setting out various “unlikely” scenarios in which Britain might not have sufficient energy supplies this winter.
…
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https://www.ft.com/content/d31fbbd6-8325-43b7-94e4-29101cfe6045In those “worst case” circumstances, power would be cut off to parts of the country for up to three hours “probably between 4pm and 7pm in the evenings on those weekdays when it’s really, really cold in January and February”, Pettigrew said.
…
Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/d31fbbd6-8325-43b7-94e4-29101cfe6045
I would love to know why John Pettigrew, CEO of National Grid, thinks energy shortage scenarios are “unlikely”.
Britain and Europe could have a mild winter – that possibility exists. The British MET are forecasting a mild winter, though they haven’t ruled out the possibility of cold spells.
If winter weather turns nasty, there could be severe energy shortages.
I doubt Russian gas will come to the rescue. There seems little prospect of an imminent outbreak of common sense in the Russia / Ukraine conflict. Both sides are currently trading claims the other side wants to detonate a radioactive dirty bomb in Kherson.
So long as the conflict drags on, Europe will remain cut off from previously reliable Russian gas supplies. What gas does get through will be subject to geopolitical games.
President Biden offered US gas to Europe, but the plan to export US gas to Britain and Europe could break down this winter. The US North East is running short of gas, thanks to energy policy incompetence, so if the North East winter turns cold, it seems likely there will be demands for the diversion of any US fossil fuel exports back to US consumers.
The situation in Europe without Russian gas is dire. Germany is so worried about energy shortages they are preparing for riots, preparing special federal police squads to maintain order in the event of a general breakdown in society – so I doubt Germany would agree to giving Britain any of their share of European gas supplies.
Britain has a large electricity inter-connector to France, so Britain can access French nuclear capacity. But France is currently experiencing major problems with their nuclear reactors, a sizeable fraction of their nuclear fleet has been shut down for maintenance, because of corrosion concerns. If winter turns cold, France would most likely take care of their own people first, and keep their energy for themselves.
Liz Truss, to her credit, tried to do something about the shortages, but British Conservative rebels sabotaged Liz Truss’ gallant, last ditch attempt to increase domestic gas availability, by attaching a prolonged review process to any attempts to permit fracking. I had my doubts about Liz, but she really put herself on the line to try to alleviate Britain’s horror winter energy shortage – only to be torn down by short sighted fools in her own party.
So it seems very likely indeed that Britain will face at least some periods of energy and heating insecurity this winter.
If this winter turns cold, and the power and heat fails, civil unrest and riots could break out.
I don’t think the politicians who wrecked Britain and Germany’s energy security fully appreciate where the mess they have created could lead. They seem complacently confident they are safe from any unrest amongst the peasants.
Update from Breitbart, New British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has reinstated the fracking ban.
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This might end like Sri Lanka?
No
Worse
Perhaps. After all, Britons, for the most part, tamely submitted to the insane diktats of the CoViD-19 years.
However, they had a leader then who commanded nearly universal respect, if not reverence.
No, I don’t mean BoJo.
?
No, me neither?????
Sigh. Obviously you have internet access, so should be connected to world events?
Queen Elizabeth II is no longer in Buckingham Palace. The wastrel that is there now is a major booster of the “green” fraud that is set to kill a fairly large number of Britons this winter.
Sri Lanka was the ‘bankable’ feasibility study for the looming disaster in Europe. No doubt that it will happen.
I’d rather be in Sri Lanka during the depths of winter!
Better throw some more North American forests on the fires at Drax.
Also, tell us what it’s like setting up windmills in the North Sea during winter.
You mean they may end up in Sri Lanka to get warm.
I mean it might be pitchforks and torches time for a change of government, like Sri Lanka.
Obviously
Ah, but then all likely alternatives – Labour, the EU-loving Liberal Democrats [not Liberal; & hate democracy if it doesn’t go their way]; or even one or both of these in cahoots [‘Coalition’] with the far-left Socialist National Party of Scotland [SNP] – will go bananas for the same irresponsible, treasonous, lethal wind n Sun nonsense.
Pitchfork Time arrives – but who takes over?
Obviously not the sainted Griff …..
But who?
Auto
I do not know British politics well enough to guess, but there are people not currently in politics who might get involved.
Perot did rather well for awhile, but ended up throwing the election to Bill Clinton. In 2000, Trump was flirting with the remnants of Perot’s party, so someone you consider unlikely may take over.
Labour are in an unofficial coalition with the SNP in Scotland and with the Lib Dems in England against the Conservatives. I’m also incredibly suspicious of the timing of some of these strikes – it looks more like an organised campaign than anything else. It might just be me being a bit more paranoid than cynical or…
Labour are in an unofficial coalition with the SNP in Scotland
Any evidence for that?
The SNP don’t need Labour in Scotland. They’ve formed a coalition with the Scottish Green Party. Two Green MSPs now hold positions in the Scottish government.
“The SNP don’t need Labour in Scotland.” very true but it may have escaped your attention that there are also SNP in Westminster? If they want to get anything done for Scotland through Parliament, they need all the help they can get as a minority regional party.
Reform UK and/or Reclaim UK, two similar sounding parties, are the only ones that have the sort of ideas that might change the status quo. Reclaim is led by Lawrence Fox, who I believe played Hunter Biden in the recent movie “My Son Hunter”. Reform is led by Richard Tice, and was founded by Nigel Farage. I believe Reform was UKIP, then the Brexit Party.
Neither party currently has any significant support, unfortunately.
Its the only way it will ever end! When the “elites” and their families are dragged from their homes and beaten to death by an angry populace in front of the entire world! Bring it!!
O-kay. Has anyone ever suggested anger management to you before? Or anti-psychotic medication, perhaps?
Truthbknown, I’m not advocating violence, I’m saying it could happen if things get really bad. But it would be very unlikely to improve the situation if it does happen.
When George Washington won the war of independence, he was in a position of absolute power. He could have done anything. But he chose to act with morality.
When Washington tried to find a historical figure who acted with similar morality and dignity, in comparable circumstances, he had to go back 2400 years, to General Cincinnatus of Rome – who was twice granted absolute power, and twice chose to hand power back to the people as soon as the crisis was resolved.
Leaders of that calibre are rare. The only other leader like that I can remember, though I can’t remember his name, I think I remember one of the Colombian presidents requested absolute power to smash the FARC guerrillas, and to everyone’s surprise restored power to the people when the military operation was complete.
Most revolutions don’t end well, they usually end with an immediate need for another revolution, to get rid of the tyrant the first revolution put in charge.
true but there IS a need to clean house and sadly a violent uprising tends to be the only way to do it
voting sure as hell doesnt work
meet the new boss/same as the old boss
though my idea would be to remove ALL public servant when the votes happened and make them re apply or move em around
its the little grey men nonentities that really run the countries, and they do as they please regardless of the partys name in supposed control..yes minister!
Sadly, the second – or third – or fourth – etc. revolution frequently doesn’t do the trick, either.
Sadly violence tends just to lead to violence and the cycle continues.
Chiang Kai-Shek (and his son)of Taiwan and Pinochet of Chile both held dictatorial power and allowed a constitutional Democratic process to replace them. So it can happen.
Sounds good to me – when do we start?
Government control over how you heat your house is destined to not end well….
On the other hand, think of all the savings! No fuel means you can’t run the furnace. Viola! No heating bills!
Leave my musical instrument out of it
Viola?
The ugly sister of the family.
Thought she was one of twins?
You might not be billed for the gas you can’t use, but the “Standing Charge” still applies…
And think of government savings on pension payments once Granny meets her maker!
REQUIEM – HYPOTHESIS: RADICAL GREENS ARE THE GREAT KILLERS OF OUR AGE April 14, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scientists-warn-of-a-rare-third-year-la-nina/#comment-3624500
[excerpt]
“However, since the turn of the current century, three instances of so-called “double dip” La Niña events have occurred, in 2007–09, 2010–12 and 2020–22.”
Note that 2007-09 and 2010-12 coincide with the end of SC23 and 2020-22 coincides with the end of SC24.
In 2002 we predicted global cooling to start by 2020-2030 and in 2013 I refined that to “2020 or sooner” – I favor Feb2020 as the date of start-of-cooling, but some prefer Feb2016.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/17/open-thread-35/#comment-3603080
[excerpt]
My concern now is Britain, Germany and the other European countries who have crippled their grids with intermittent green energy schemes.
I published on 28July2022:
“The big cull of the elderly of Europe will happen this winter – we predicted it in 2002 and 2013…”
Will British and German MP’s ever realize the harm they’ve done with their green nonsense?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scientists-warn-of-a-rare-third-year-la-nina/#comment-3624741
[excerpt]
My very competent friend, meteorologist Joe Bastardi recently wrote:
Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis
On another subject, some forecasters have been projecting a milder than normal winter for Europe, which would be welcome with a red carpet due to the continent’s acute energy crisis.
However, Joe notes there are signs this may not be the case. That would mean the coming winter could become – in the current dire energy situation – the Mother of Nightmares: a bitter cold winter with energy outages. In the event of blackouts, which many experts warn have a high chance of occurring, Europe would then be facing a humanitarian and economic crisis on a scale not seen in a very long time.
“Look at what the surface maps are showing,” Bastardi says. “When you have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland, and low pressure over Spain like that, folks, that is an ugly looking situation for the winter. That is similar to 2010/11.”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scientists-warn-of-a-rare-third-year-la-nina/#comment-3624811
More about:
Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis
I think Joe B and his partner Joe D’Aleo are among the very best long term weather forecasters, and I take their predictions very seriously. In a personal email to me, Joe wrote, ”It’s dire looking” and I agreed with him.
I recently concluded that “The (Covid-19) vaxxed are screwed”. It’s too late to turn that around; the damage has been done. I feel the same way about the Brits and Germans this winter – if Joe B’s forecast holds true, “The elderly and poor of Europe are screwed”. I am not happy about any of this. It was ALL the avoidable result of Covid and Climate false hysteria.
Most scientists are happy when their predictions are correct – I’ll be happy if mine are wrong.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/23/open-thread-38/#comment-3627667
High Heating Costs Spur a Run on ‘Warm Banks’ in UK – Bloomberg
“Warm Banks” is the last desperate move of the failed UK government. I approve, because it will reduce mortality this winter – but it’s all they can do, having totally sabotaged their national grid with excess intermittent wind power and inadequate reliable fossil-fueled power. We told them so 20 years ago.
I’m feeling generous today by not deleting this. Will probably not happen again.
^^ Nazi censor-bot scum! ^^
Who do you think you are? Disgusting!
Calm down dear, you’ll do yourself a mischief going all unnecessary like that!
Thank you for your generosity, Charles.
I wanted this Summary published because, IF I am correct and there is a huge cull of the elderly and poor this winter, I want these pseudo-green killers in Britain and Germany to be prosecuted.
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this utterly obtuse, this wrong, for this long – they knew what they were doing.
what was wrong with that Charles?
DIED SUDDENLY | OFFICIAL TRAILER – Streaming November 21st – Stew Peters
Better sit down before watching this short clip.
whiles some it may be sensationalised the insurance companies figures arent
and they(laughing) will be the ones paying out huge sums while the pharmas and govts etc have indemnity
enough payouts and things might change?
Your link to the likely third year La Nina reminds me that the Australian BOM has predicting an end to the La Nina for three years running. I don’t know if they’re deluded, or genuinely think that if they predict it every year, eventually they’ll be right. And of course, nobody will remember all the times they were wrong.
it had dropped a bit but I see shes back in the .5 and rising again last few days, the IOD is having a much larger effect
the SOI is still pretty weak SA and sth vic still getting weather pushed up n away
I havent checked Piers Corbyns winter uk forecast Id bet hes more close to reality though
weatheraction.com It will cost you 105 pounds for his forecast.
Pure speculation on your part – pony up!
Government control over anything is bad! People want to put them in charge of your health??? Idiots!!
Government control of just about anything is destined to not end well.
tell us about it
aussies were the test piggies for dumb meters
and we ARE paying for it in massive charges for supply n service and they can and will control power to homes as they please using it
Hmm, but even if fracking got the go ahead tomorrow, which would be great, it wouldn’t make any difference to this winter’s gas supply
You are correct; nevertheless, it is the principle of the thing that matters.
No, sod “principles”, its the result of the thing that matters.
I think the Tesco principle applies, here.
Every little helps
Unless it’s overridden by too little, too late.
Not to mention the forward-looking risk of election of a hostile regime serves as a perpetual, possibly catastrophic, anthropogenic cost forcing.
I recall reading a story about how a nuclear project was opposed a decade ago because it wouldn’t be producing power until 2022. Guess what year it is now?
Its a step, and if the fracking ban was gone when things go into the toilet at least they could point and say they are working on it. Now there is nothing.
People are likely to die, politicians feel it won’t be them, maybe they shouldn’t be so sure? Police and army members are people with homes and families like anyone else. This is an issue that will affect absolutely everyone except the ultra rich.
At least Truss appeared to grasp there is a problem.
Fracking now would make a difference to next winter’s supplies and not starting it now would be the best way to increase the likelihood of a crunch next year. But quite possibly fracking now could make a difference even this winter. If a new revenue for gas was to start next year, bringing prices down then, it would incentivise anyone who could sell now to sell now while prices were higher and depleting emergency reserves now knowing there is more coming later would make more sense. If there is a difference I’ve no idea as to whether the difference this winter would be meaningful or not. Either way, it would make a difference next year.
So long as old saws are flying about…
The longest journey begins with a single step.
Nothing will ever get done about gas supplies and prices if fracking isn’t started. You’re right. At some point sooner or later, it will make a difference.
Reminds me of Obama declaring that we couldn’t drill our way out of the then current oil crisis.
Just taking action to improve the supply picture would calm market nerves. We have had close to 18 months to get started since prices started signalling alarm as we came out of lockdowns, and done nothing. If you look at the forward markets, they keep ratcheting up as the delays increase.
It will if you people rise up and start fracking “elite” skulls!
It may be too late for this year, but you still need to think about what will happen next year and the year after that. If the government gets away with only allowing ‘a few’ grannies to die, they’ll double-down on the green power until they find out how many we will allow them to kill.
We all know that none of the people who sabotaged the attempt to allow fracking will ever be held responsible for their actions.
If someone dies from hypothermia in Britain this winter, wouldn’t a charge of manslaughter be appropriate?
If someone dies from hypothermia in Britain this winter, wouldn’t a charge of manslaughter be appropriate?
There’s probably as much chance of that happening as for similar charges being pressed at the “Just Stop Oil” morons who caused 2 days of traffic disruption recently, when they scaled the Dartford bridge.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11339281/Dartford-Bridge-eco-activists-blood-hands-death-two-women-horror-crash.html
The US is handicapped by not only the FJB regime but by the Jones Act, which limits shipping between US ports (see https://www.grassrootinstitute.org/2016/03/what-is-the-jones-act/). This means we can’t ship LNG from the Gulf to the northeast ports because the LNG tanker fleet isn’t Jones Act compliant. President Brandon isn’t likely to give a waiver unless Big Labor acquiesces.*
*Wasn’t it great when we had a president who didn’t owe favors to big-money special interest groups? But hey, no more mean tweets, so it’s worth it, innit?
From all appearances, shortly after the election, the railways in the US are going to be completely shut down due to a rail strike.
First, isn’t it convenient that the unions waited until after the election to tank the economy.
Second, I find it interesting that the same people who get their panties in wad over a company having more than 20 to 30% of a market, have no problem with a single union being able to shut down an entire industry.
Yes, a single union could cause a shut down. Actually, there are 12 unions involved in railroad labor. 4 have signed on to a new contract so far. If one of the 8 remaining unions go on strike, the others won’t cross the picket lines.
Zerohedge.com/political/big-rail-workers-union-rejects-biden-backed-labor-deal-renews-strike-possibility
According to some insiders, the carriers were interested in stalling the contract agreements until after their fiscal year which ends in October so as to hold off the expense to the next year. The unions kept agreeing to tentative agreements which keep labor working until there is a vote. Since all other cooling off periods have expired the stalling of a strike by this method appears to suggest that the unions don’t want to strike but still want improved conditions and pay.
It seems that Biden and the midterm elections have little to do with negotiations. Biden calling for the President Emergency Board was just adding another cooling off period which the carriers wanted anyway.
For the moment the gods are being very kind to us. We’ve had a plume from Africa that has lifted temperatures up to 19C or 20C.
Needless to say, although the BBC et al couldn’t shriek we’re all gonna fry, they have settled on the description of slightly warmer days as “incredibly mild” etc
“The Met Office has confirmed the period from January to September was the hottest first nine months of the year since its records began in 1884.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/16/britain-bask-balmy-southerly-winds-mild-spell-sees-october/
What? 1884? Well it depends on the narrative, I suppose?
“The UK has experienced its sunniest spring since records began in 1929” – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52849367
“The UK has had the wettest winter since national records began in 1910” – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26367160
We have records going back to at least 1836.
It really does depend on the weather!
weather is unpredictable . all the ingredients for a very active atlantic hurricane season were in place this summer , yet wave after wave came off the african coast without developing into a storm .
It is very disappointing that the central premise of this article is alarmist. allowing fracking now will have absolutely no affect on Jan or Feb blackouts next year.
It would not have harmed the article to have written it in proper timescales and so it is very poor that it is not.
True, but the situation is unlikely to suddenly sort itself out come March or April – this is something that will be needed for years to come. North Sea gas fields have boosted productivity by over 27% so far this year and, if the new round of licences goes ahead under the Sunak regime, that could see 100 new leases in 900 areas, which will boost production even further in years to come. Fracking is not a short-term solution, but it is a solution to the long-term energy supply problem, now we’ll have to see what happens in years to come to see just how monumentally stupid this decision has been.
The problem is that this will be used to steer subsidy and finance towards yet more useless pointless and expensive windfarms
At least given fracking we could have stated that there would be a need to start any more wind
Eureka! Green Subsidy Goldmine!
“Step Two- then a miracle occurs”
technology combining PV solar & stored hydro.
(Photo: Geoff Sherrington)
Well that’s one way to wash the panels. 🙂 Another benefit is, it proves work for the inverter replacement teams….
Hey, green jobs will include wiping the panels, too.
Know anyone’s idiot
scumson who might be capable?If allowed into Australia . . . .
Auto
need hail
Net-Zero tolerance.
Yep, its full on GreenCrap™ from YAOPPE* ArtStudent™
It has been observed that keen crossword puzzlers have determined that the most appropriate anagram of the week is “Hi Risk Anus”.
*Yet Another Oxford Politics Philsophy and Economics
There are alternatives
I rush, I sank
I rash, I sunk
Hair un kiss
Perfect! This is the best an most apt anagram of a politician’s name since Virginia Bottomley, ” I am an evil tory bigot”! With your permission I will be using this whenever referring to the WEF puppet sunak.
And from the “Can’t get any worse” category, French nuclear workers have gone on strike, affecting 20 of the plants, causing delays in their return to service…..
Explainer: Strikes at French nuclear plants – what’s at stake? | Reuters
While I do not wish a really cold winter on ordinary Brits, it seems that only a fierce winter with massive energy shortages may force politicians to begin to face reality and discredit the green nutters. It may well be better happening now than later.
“only a fierce winter with massive energy shortages may force politicians to begin to face reality and discredit the green nutters”
I wish I shared your ‘faith’ in the matter.
Sadly we need a bitter winter (like 1947 ) & lots of starving people dying in frozen homes … even then most politicians wont face reality unless they can blame someone else.
One of the deaths in that winter was a gifted musician, only 46, who worked for the BBC. I got to know his wife in the seventies but only recently discovered the circumstances around his death – extreme cold, fuel and food shortages and rationing in the winter of 47. His unexpected death as he had been a healthy individual was directly linked to the cold.
Don’t be naive – it’ll be used and spun by both sides until it no longer bears any relation to the truth.
You may remember a spike in excess mortality somewhere around 2013-15 that was due to an EU wide flu outbreak? Which was then spun by leftwing activists as exclusively due to Tory austerity cuts, despite occurring in several countries across the EU simultaneously.
The juice has to be back on by 7 so that the vast numbers of folks addicted to the socially, morally, sexually and everything else-illy dysfunctional Soap Operas can get their fix.
Gotta keep the Opium (for the masses) flowing no matter what – else there really will be trouble
Phew! For a moment I thought you were going to include reality TV – and there’s an awful lot of it about.
I was astounded that trying to stop fracking is being done by the conservative party in Britain. They must have a totally different set of values over there as in the US the conservatives would never go along with this.
I wonder Eric, do the British people use generators for backup like here?
There hasn’t been a Conservative party since ~1990 or so.
I disagree !!!
There hasn’t been a Conservative, Labour or Liberal party since ~1990;
now they all come out of the same sausage machine.
Come back Guy Fawkes all is forgiven.
Only a handful of us (I’ve also got a battery + inverter alternative). The vast majority don’t seem to give it any consideration – undoubtedly due to decades of extremely reliable electricity supply…
“I was astounded that trying to stop fracking is being done by the conservative party in Britain.”
Many members of the party are conservative, that’s why they picked Liz Truss over Richi Sunak.
Then the parliament staged a coup against party members and put their man Richi in.
An interesting fact, a few years ago there was a major expenses scandal, many MPs still sitting in parliament apologised to parliament for ruthlessly gaming the system to enrich themselves.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_parliamentary_expenses_scandal
In an unrelated fact, many wealthy backers of all the major parties own big estates packed full of wind turbines and solar panels.
Another interesting fact, Richi Sunak, the politicians’ choice for PM, is one of the richest people in parliament.
I recommend investing in some goose down attire, and a thick quilt.
Keep a trickle of water going through the pipes to reduce the chances of a freeze rupture.
Hasn’t there been a rush on the clothing stores yet?
Let them burn cake!
I don’t think the politicians who wrecked Britain and Germany’s energy security fully appreciate where the mess they have created could lead. They seem complacently confident they are safe from any unrest amongst the peasants.
***********
Was it Ronald Reagan who said that government can be the problem rather than the solution to problems? Or something like that.
Lack of literacy in science and engineering in the political and activist ranks is taking its toll in the UK and mainland Europe.
Here it is in full….
“Government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem. … Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them. Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it. … The problem is not that people are taxed too little, the problem is that government spends too much.” ~ Ronald Reagan
TOP 25 QUOTES BY RONALD REAGAN (of 1096) | A-Z Quotes (azquotes.com)
I acknowledge that the quote above is not always true. The problem is knowing when it is.
Given enough time with a “problem”, the quote is always true.
I can’t think of any “problem” that has been tackled by government, that has actually improved over time.
I’m having a hard time coming up with a case where it isn’t true. Care to help?
This winter will be a La Niña. If the typical pattern holds, it will mean an unusually cold winter for Europe. The consequences will be unavoidably grim.
Exxon knew of course. /sarc
Closer to home the news is not great either…..
What we need is a Pelaton=type company to market exercise equipment that powers a heater so all of us oldsters could generate our own energy … and maybe put the kids and grandkids to work.
Why, I might even invite griff or nick stokes over if they’ll peddle [sic] for a couple hours.
I don’t think they’re into real work like that.
I don’t think that they’re into things that work.
“France is currently experiencing major problems with their nuclear reactors, a sizeable fraction of their nuclear fleet has been shut down for maintenance, because of corrosion concerns.”
France is in dire need for a Canadian Candu reactor for backup power! These are modular, with a planned obsolescence schedule – run for 27yrs, upgrade for another 13yrs and retired after 40yrs. 10yrs ago, a module cost CDN350 million and takes 3yrs to build – no cost overruns (like Henry Ford’s invention). The most recent upgrades had a fuel cost of ~ USD O.O2/kWh fuel cost for electricity!!
At Bruce Point, Ontario the world’s largest nuke plant made of 7 modules operated since the 1960s (S.Korea took over being largest – you guessed it – it’s a Candu!). More goodies. They use non-enriched uranium, most of the power coming from fission of U3O8 which synergistically undergoes fission with utilization of ‘spare’ neutrons captured (possibly the very neutrons that are crippling France’s nukes).
It gets even better! The special configuration of the fuel rods permits refuelling without needing to shutdown. Candus have been running essentially trouble free since their invention over 60yrs ago. A nuclear accident is when a plant worker spills a cup of coffee.
The research facility at Chalk River, Ontario also built the first molten salt reactor in 1947 and collaborated with Oak Ridge on theirs in the 1950s. Chalk River’s ran until the 1990s. The facility also collaborated on the Manhattan Project!
https://lanl.libguides.com/c.php?g=1248595&p=9138432
The US even sent Navy Lieutenant Jimmy Carter to Chalk River to assist with cleanup of a very nasty nuclear accident in the 1950s. The chauvinism in the nuclear industry is thick. That’s why France and much of the world uses rubbing-two- sticks-together-to-make-a-fire nuclear tech.
That is terrible analysis. The policy to restart fracking proposed by Liz Truss had very little chance of being passed by the UK Parliament. Even if it had been agreed, it would have taken years for any gas to be generated from fracking so the policy has no impact on any short term supply shortages this winter.
The analysis by National Grid was to highlight extreme circumstances in which there may be short term blackouts. A cold winter was therefore not deemed to be an extreme event. It is highly unlikely that the UK will be unable to acquire adequate gas supplies. Europe has almost reached their target storage for the winter and there are ships offshore waiting to refill the facilities later in the winter.
Caudrilla already has some test wells. If they had been given the go-ahead, there would have been some gas pumping into the Lancashire gas main within a month or two. Its unlikely it would have made much difference before the end of winter, but even a few hours extra heat, or a few pennies off the gas bill, might have saved someone’s life.
“Caudrilla already has some test wells.”
Even if the IP rates from the zones that were tested could have been achieved from the rest, any reasonable shale decline type curves would have resulted in uneconomic production schedules. And this is a pie in the sky scenario, given the fact that Caudrilla would have followed universal gas field practice and tested the probable best intervals first.
https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/production-operations/unconventional-resources/article/14233606/cuadrilla-resources-ordered-to-plug-and-abandon-shale-wells
As for the earthquake risk, it was probably small. CONUS swarms were/are from overworked, antique, Arbuckle haz waste wells. I assume the best – that if development proceeded, they would have properly constructed adequate aqueous haz waste capacity.
Sunak was wrong to stop the development. Rather, he should have let it go on, using API best practices and demanding real time lock boxing of P90 asset retirement costs. IMO, that would have reality checked the whole business. But if I were wrong, then that would be the best outcome
As I pointed out elsewhere, the EU has reached target storage for LNG but is still woefully short for gas (which LNG must be processed into before it can be used). Even if the gas storage was at 100%, this represents just a few weeks of use – cold weather over much of the winter months will burn through that stored amount and need more. The EU hasn’t got enough gas storage capacity to last all 27 countries for more than 2-3 weeks even with the rationing that’s been put in place. I hope it will be a mild winter, otherwise it’ll be a bit iffy at times.
This is what happens when Free People refuse to Fight back!!
This is what happens when Greens and their politicos design the energy policy in a vacuum.
Or a sound bubble
Reduced gas imports from Europe? I’d expect none at all. Indeed, they will be begging us for gas if we can land enough LNG. They will also be begging us for electricity, except we won’t have enough for ourselves if we get cold and Dunkelflaute.
Fact is it won’t be gas supply that is the constraint. It will be available dispatchable capacity since we closed more coal and nuclear and added nothing compared with a year ago. Just before Christmas last year we had some cold Dunkelflaute, with every CCGT plant in operation, plus nuclear plus coal plus hydro plus… and we only got by because we could bid high enough to ensure 5.6GW supply on all the interconnectors. Best case is we get nothing, rather than having to supply the French with 4GW, the Dutch and Belgians with 1GW apiece, the Irish with 750MW, and the Norwegians (on behalf of the Germans and Danes) with 1.4GW. Accounting for closures we would be over 16GW short.
There’s also several GW’s of STOR* – reciprocating engine/gensets spread around the country. These are mostly diesel powered, with a few running on natural gas. They are primarily to help out with short duration high demand, but (subject to fuel supplies) could be run for longer.
*Short Term Operational Reserve
These people are dumb as rocks. The Ukraine war didn’t cause the current problems with energy, it merely moved the day of reckoning forward. The inexcusable move to wind and solar is the clear culprit. If wind and solar were an effective alternative to fossil fuel and nuclear we would all be better off now than before but we aren’t we are worse off. The more we rely on wind and solar the worse off we will become. It is inevitable. If we hadn’t built one wind or solar project we would be better off, if we had continued to rely on fossil fuel and nuclear none of this would have happened. It is so stupid.