Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC, Miami, 7/22/2022

Good News: 2022 Hurricane Season Mild. Bad News: Pressure Pattern Threatens Europe with Hell Winter

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

First the good news (and then the bad news below)

This year’s hurricane season has been unusually quiet. The USA has gotten off easy so far in terms of landfalls and damage, thus once again contradicting all the doomsday scenarios from the climate alarmists.

Mid September is usually the peak of hurricane activity. But right now it’s quiet and there are no threats to the US mainland – for the time being. Here’s the latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):


Another one goes out to sea. Image cropped from the NHC.

Currently only hurricane Fiona is active in the Atlantic, and it is projected to go out to sea hundreds of miles away from the east coast and fizzle out. It’s been a quiet season.

According to Eric Berger at arstechnica.com here:

Everyone from the US agency devoted to studying weather, oceans, and the atmosphere—the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration—to the most highly regarded hurricane professionals predicted a season with above-normal to well above-normal activity.

For example, NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, predicted a 65 percent chance of an above-normal season…”

Even with today’s super powerful computers and sophisticated models, accurate seasonal predictions are still proving elusive. This should tell us that climate models looking decades into future remain nothing but high-tech, wild-ass guesses.

Arstechnica.com here sums up the state of seasonal hurricane forecasting:

Seasonal forecasting is still a developing science. While it is typically more right than wrong, predicting specific weather patterns such as hurricanes months in advance is far from an established science.”

Now the bad news: 2022 hurricane season “not over by a long shot”

Concerning the remainder of the 2022 season, veteran meteorologist Joes Bastardi says at yesterday’s Saturday Summary video that there are signs out there things are going to start cooking over the next 15 days: “It’s a late starting season. It’s not over by a long shot.”

Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis

On another subject, some forecasters have been projecting a milder than normal winter for Europe, which would be welcome with a red carpet due to the continent’s acute energy crisis.

However, Joe notes there are signs this may not be the case. That would mean the coming winter could become – in the current dire energy situation – the Mother of Nightmares: a bitter cold winter with energy outages. In the event of blackouts, which many experts warn have a high chance of occurring, Europe would then be facing a humanitarian and economic crisis on a scale not seen in a very long time.

“Look at what the surface maps are showing,” Bastardi says. “When you have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland, and low pressure over Spain like that, folks, that is an ugly looking situation for the winter. That is similar to 2010/11.”

Normally a hard winter would be no problem for Europe in normal times, but times are far from normal nowadays as ideological Green New Deal politicians have done a great job at wrecking the continent’s energy supply system and so leaving tens of millions of people extremely vulnerable.

Europeans need to start preparing for an autumn and/or winter blackout. Note that a blackout means not only the power goes out, but so do the heat, lights, communication, Internet and potentially the water supply along with it – for days! Don’t wait and pretend it can’t happen. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

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HotScot
September 18, 2022 6:11 pm

Got my standby petrol generator this time last year to power everything important in the house. My neighbours giggled at me because they have a wood burning stove.

I hope I don’t need the generator.

michel
Reply to  HotScot
September 18, 2022 11:53 pm

I doubt there will be large scale long total blackouts in the UK even from a quite severely cold winter. If there are blizzards, as has happened occasionally in the last 50 or so years, that’s a different matter. There may be power cuts to business, three day weeks and so on.

Your neighbors will need to have laid in a good stock of smokeless fuel to use in their stove. There is a good chance that they will need more fuel than any reasonable amount of wood will amount to. The problem is storage space. A 25 kg bag of smokeless will last as long as a couple of cubic meters of wood.

And there is a health issue. With wood, you have to open the stove repeatedly to refuel it. Every time you do that, you release particulates into the room. Not very good. Coal – briquettes or anthracite, some form of smokeless – has a lot to be said for it in the kind of energy emergency the greens have contrived to get us into.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  michel
September 19, 2022 12:44 am

“There may be power cuts to business, three day weeks and so on.”

This is the part of the equation no one’s addressed as everyone’s
still focused on keeping warm. If industries & businesses are
limited/shut down due to lack of energy, what will that do to the
supply chain, as necessary products are no longer being produced?
How will people earn money to pay for the expensive heat, food,
etc. with no jobs? Without income to tax, how will governments pay
for the subsidies they’ll need for all of the extra people who now
have low/no income? The list of problems caused by this man-made
energy crisis goes way beyond just staying warm this winter.

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/why-arcelormittal-other-metal-giants-are-shutting-factories-amid-europe-energy-crisis-heres-what-lies-ahead/2666608/

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 19, 2022 1:27 am

In Europe, I predict a winter of our discontent. If Steinbeck was alive and writing today he would have had a field day writing about all the climate corruption.

Reply to  Michael in Dublin
September 19, 2022 7:45 am

Michael,
I don’t know enough about Steinbeck to know if he would have allowed himself to be silenced – as so many folk in the media have today.
There are Pulitzer Prizes – perhaps even a Nobble or two – waiting for a brave wordsmith.
But, of course, those harvesting subsidies will try to.pretend thar there’s ‘nothing to see’!!

Auto

TonyG
Reply to  Auto
September 19, 2022 9:30 am

There are Pulitzer Prizes – perhaps even a Nobble or two – waiting for a brave wordsmith.

Not likely IMO. Those organizations are as badly corrupted as any other at this point.

Reply to  Michael in Dublin
September 20, 2022 5:37 pm

I agree with this forecast – energy shortages and a cold winter – told you so 20 years ago – details at:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/17/open-thread-35/#comment-3603080
[excerpt]
THE BIG CULL OF THE ELDERLY OF EUROPE WILL HAPPEN THIS WINTER
By Allan MacRae, 28July2022
We predicted it in 2002 and 2013 – it was all terribly costly – in dollars and lives – and all entirely avoidable.
A willful squandering of the lives of innocents.
Crimes against humanity.
 
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., Calgary  
https://energy-experts-international.com/

Jack
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 19, 2022 2:01 am

Civil unrest, strikes and probably riots are on the menu of the next winter.

Stephen Richards
Reply to  Jack
September 20, 2022 12:34 pm

It’s the only thing politicians and so called elites understand, sadly

Alba
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 19, 2022 3:32 am

I don’t know the answers to your questions but in 1974 there was a three-day week in the UK as a result of the miners’ strike.

Drake
Reply to  Alba
September 19, 2022 10:28 am

But later, leading up to a coal miner strike, Thatcher stockpiled massive amounts of coal a power plants to forestall the strikers having the same impact.

That is the thing about coal, you can just pile it up and have MONTHS of fuel for power plants.

Now it makes it even more clear why they (the globalists) went after coal and nuclear so hard, they are not controlled by the swift changes in market forces like natural gas.

As griff likes to say, the price for ‘energy” has increased due to the increase in natural gas prices.

But what he always ignores is that the “energy” market is so dependent of natural gas BECAUSE the green movement, starting with Obama and Harry Reid in the US, and a host of clowns in the EU and UK have made it so that there is no competition for the use of natural gas. All of the eggs have been put in one basket, and for Europe, Russia dropped the basket.

If all interference in the “energy” markets were eliminated, coal power would surge back to prominence for NEW electrical generation, and wind and solar would be “consigned to the dustbin of history” where unreliables belong.

roaddog
Reply to  Drake
September 19, 2022 1:24 pm

I’m certain California has plans to stockpile electricity prior to 2035.

Kpar
Reply to  roaddog
September 20, 2022 3:57 pm

Yes, Gavin Newsome (sp? should be Nuisance) is laying in a supply of wind up rubber bands and squirrel cages (gerbils sold separately).

Robert W Turner
Reply to  Drake
September 20, 2022 4:36 pm

Coal stocks are struggling to go higher even though the coal price is 500% above the recent average. The globalist divestment scheme seems to be working for now, but the lawsuits are mounting.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  michel
September 19, 2022 3:31 am

huh? I open my fire to put wood in and its zero anything but heat from coals comes out..I did read they burn greenwood in UK really? thats daft!

Yirgach
Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 19, 2022 6:34 am

When a wood stove is running there is always a draft up the chimney.
If anything besides heat “comes out” when you open the door then your chimney needs attention!

Ian Johnson
Reply to  michel
September 19, 2022 4:19 am

As long as one and one’s neighbours have a stove. Not all properties are permitted a stove, or gas heater. A lot of these properties are for the over sixties.

HotScot
Reply to  michel
September 19, 2022 5:23 am

I doubt there will be large scale long total blackouts in the UK

Your evidence for this is? As a starting point any blackouts will be rolling, for a few hours at a time. Should we have a bad winter those rolling blackouts will become longer and more frequent. However, that’s not the point. Energy is now more that twice as expensive as it was only around a year ago, and only because the government has capped it.

The point being, there was fuel poverty last year, a heat or eat culture amongst some family’s and many of the elderly. In a modern, wealthy society this is unacceptable and entirely down to insane green policies impoverishing more than one nation, the whole of Europe is suffering the same if not worse.

As for burning wood, I suspect the irony was lost on you. A generator not only allows us to heat our home with conventional gas central heating (the rolling blackouts will likely be confined to electricity) which no one without an electricity supply will be able to use.

It also ensures our freezers are maintained, although they will last a considerable time without electricity, assuming one doesn’t have to open them to eat anything, which can’t be cooked anyway unless one has access to a gas stove, which we don’t.

It also means we can have lighting throughout our house, thankfully they are all LED’s. We can also maintain communication as our internet and even TV’s will still function with a clean supply (which I have ensured).

No matter what fuels my neighbours use they get one thing only, heat in a single room, and perhaps a little light from the burning material. That’s it.

Rick W Kargaard
Reply to  HotScot
September 19, 2022 7:54 am

It pays to be prepared. I have a gasoline generator sufficient to run almost everything, a gas cookstove and electric backup, Gas heating with electric backup and the list goes on.
Surprisingly, around Christmas last year my gas heating failed due to insufficient gas supply and I had to turn on my electric backup. Of course, I live in an area of Alberta where where winter temps will drop to -40 or lower during many years. I live at the end of the line and my neighbors must have drawn down enough to cause lower pressures.
I have never had an electrical failure long enough to require the generator, but it is a handy tool for camping or remote jobs.
I also keep a generous amount of water on hand in case of a supply disruption which again has never been needed.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  HotScot
September 19, 2022 7:59 am

I’ve gone into a camping based survival plan. A small gamping gas stove for hot drinks. LED camping battery powered lights. A large stock of candles. Heat retention aka Haybox cooking for main meal. Battery pack for phone which I’ll use for a Wifi Hotspot for internet access. As I can live without television so I’m not too worried about that. Of course hot water bottles. Hopefully if Liz gets fracking sorted it won’t be necessary next year.

During the Three Day Week my mother still lived in the house where I grew up, and I was in Edinburgh. She was unaffected by it all as the house had no electricity and nothing that depended on mains electricity to operate. We had blackouts in different parts of the city so you went to a mates house and they came to you depending on who had the 3 hour power cut.

The great thing about humans is we’re adaptable and resourceful

Drake
Reply to  michel
September 19, 2022 10:16 am

And ANY contact with the products of combustion of wood would be a serious threat to a Human being’s health since we in the western Europe gene pool did not ‘evolve” in almost constant contact with wood smoke in the winters over the last 1,000,000 years.

I really FEAR breathing wood smoke.

Not so much.

Adrian Mann
Reply to  michel
September 19, 2022 10:33 am

We have a wood burner, which is our primary source of heating for winter. I burn oak which has been drying for at least 2 years. When I open the door to add more fuel, no smoke comes out into the room. As in none at all. The reason? The airflow is into the combustion chamber so all the combustion gases go up the chimney. It actually produces very little smoke at all once it’s got up to temperature – smoke usually means the fire isn’t hot enough, or the moisture content of the wood is too high. It’s pretty easy to run one cleanly and efficiently.
We have at least 3 years of wood stacked outside, but then, we have a lot of space.
Also, we live in rural Hungary where it routinely gets down to -25C during the winter, and we’re toasty warm and even have to open the windows!

guidoLaMoto
Reply to  michel
September 20, 2022 5:39 am

michel–

  • And there is a health issue.

What utter nonsense. Even in coal miners who have at least 25 yrs on the job have a prevalence of black lung disease of “only” 10%..Smokers are prone to COPD, not because of the particulates, but because of the heat of the inhaled smoke. Same for victims of smoke inhalation in house fires…..Granted, asthmatics may experience exacerbations from inhaling smoky/dusty air, but probably not from simply stoking a fire…..The problems will come when the local air quality returns in large cities to that of Dicken’s 19th century London and the yellow pea soup fogs from everybody heating with wood & coal….Problems avoided if they use gasification furnaces- but that will take some planning ahead.

Jack
Reply to  HotScot
September 19, 2022 1:54 am

A week ago I purchased a gasoline generator (2.2kW, 230V) since I had read an article listing the France’s regions that were under the threat of power outages during the next winter: The coastal mediterranean regions East of the Rhone and the southern french Alps wher I am currently living.
I intend to use it mainly in powering my fridge and my two freezers. It would be so stupid losing expensive foods that are stored inside

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Jack
September 19, 2022 3:32 am

if its as cold as expected then wouldnt snow be as cold? colder than the freezers anyway?

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 19, 2022 6:53 am

I don’t know what the typical winter temperatures for Jack are, but our freezer usually maintains -10°F (~ -23°C).

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
September 19, 2022 8:03 am

I think the normal temperature in Europe for a freezer in -18’C.

Keep the door shut/lid closed during a power out of three or four hours shouldn’t see a problem. Buy a thermocouple thermometer to monitor freezer temperature to be doubly sure.

Nick Graves
Reply to  HotScot
September 19, 2022 1:58 am

Likewise.

Phillip Bratby
Reply to  HotScot
September 19, 2022 6:33 am

I have both a generator and a wood burning stove. Plus many other things.

Reply to  Phillip Bratby
September 19, 2022 1:36 pm

& me;
generator 2.5 kVA + 7.5kVA plus loads of diesel;
Tank gas (full) for some heating & cooking;
oil fired Rayburn;
wood burning stove (being fitted);
2,000 Litres of fresh drinking water. (well water for washing & toilets)
enough food for 3 mths

Ian Johnson
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
September 19, 2022 5:01 pm

Folks in a one bed flat may find a generator a tad noisy. even if they are allowed to store flammable goods in the premises. Flats also don’t usually have a place in which to burn logs, much less an exhaust system for any fumes emitted.

DMacKenzie
Reply to  HotScot
September 20, 2022 9:54 am
Stephen Richards
Reply to  HotScot
September 20, 2022 12:33 pm

I hope they don’t ban wood burners

September 18, 2022 6:13 pm

See that … CO2 is not only plant food, but it’s also a tropical storm suppressor — or it could have something to do with global cooling trends. Either way, it’s a sure sign that the seasonal and climate models continue to fail due to a lack of data and incomplete science. We really should study the solar cycles more.

moira richards
Reply to  John Shewchuk
September 19, 2022 4:01 am

Could be something to do with the constant spraying of the atmosphere goengineering

Reply to  moira richards
September 19, 2022 7:47 am

Just as long as they spray greenhouse gases. 🙂

Ziggarat
Reply to  John Shewchuk
September 19, 2022 4:51 am

If it’s warmer, cooler, wetter, dryer, or the same – that’s all a result of evil whites and their use of fossil fuels.

— the modern left

Reply to  Ziggarat
September 19, 2022 7:48 am

It’s the global warming establishment and their over-heated narrative … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvcoX2N2g1E

John R T
Reply to  John Shewchuk
September 19, 2022 9:21 am

Tonga volcano, Jan., increased atmospheric moisture 10%.

Extended ski-season: both Australia and Europe. Did SE Asia deluge and other global atypical precipitation re-balance the regime?
Was stratospheric energy level increased, lessening heat gradient – fewer tropical Cyclones? Thus, delayed Fall onset, but more cool-season precipitation?
21 March 23 is just around the corner

Old Man Winter
September 18, 2022 6:37 pm

While none of us wants to see others suffer, a Big Freeze may be what’s
needed to light a fire under Europeans’ arses to help them realize that
they’ve been swindled by corrupt scientists, leaders & businessmen. This
world has always been “Trust but verify” & it was always NECESSARY to
see if people who claimed to be friends weren’t in fact ravenous wolves.
They failed to do that & the current suffering is the result of their own
laziness. Reality bites!

They made their situation doubly hard as now they must get rid of these
crooks who gained lots of $$$ & power & will FULLY resist their removal
using EVERY means possible. If they fail again on this second part, the
suffering they incurred til now will be small potatoes compared to what
lies ahead. Things could get very heated, so to speak!

commvca2.jpg
MarkW
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 18, 2022 8:13 pm

I’ve had a number of socialists assure me that people are naturally caring and sharing.
It’s only capitalism that teaches people to be selfish.

On the other hand, they will then turn around and declare how awful it is that they have to pay for the stuff they want. In their minds, it’s the job of government to take the stuff they want from the greedy people, and give it to them.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  MarkW
September 18, 2022 8:44 pm

Communism does work, but not the way they thought it would!

commie20.jpg
Frank from NoVA
Reply to  MarkW
September 18, 2022 9:17 pm

‘It’s only capitalism that teaches people to be selfish.’

To the contrary, since all exchanges are voluntary under capitalism, it is capitalism that requires people to act in a civilized manner. Or as Adam Smith put it:

‘It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest. We address ourselves not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities, but of their advantages’

Gerry, England
Reply to  MarkW
September 19, 2022 3:27 am

I guess it was caring and sharing socialists that shot people trying to leave their ‘paradise’. The Czechs trained dogs to attack anyone moving and in the one instance that they were used even they couldn’t stomach what was left of the man they were set upon.

Before the left wing cancer spread, people with wealth would often provide facilities like schools and hospitals. Now the likes of Gates are trying to force us to eat grubs and be given a death jab.

roaddog
Reply to  Gerry, England
September 19, 2022 1:29 pm

Over 100 million people were killed, in the pursuit of Nirvana.

H Fan
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 18, 2022 10:38 pm

They will take the wrong lessons and double down on green energy, killing fossil fuels and closing nuclear plants. They will blame non-green energy as the root of the problem. Mark my words.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 19, 2022 1:45 am

As another old man I am stunned that so many Europeans refuse to believe what is staring them in the face. They resemble the three monkeys with one covering his eyes, the other ears and third his mouth: See no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil.

I thought it would be a generation before the EU disintegrates but am now wondering if the climate alarm and foolish energy policies will hasten this day. Similarly I wonder how long the United States will be able to continue as the united states. History does not favor the American Dream.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
September 19, 2022 3:35 am

I hear the eu is after Orban today.
not “democratic enough” hmm but ukies banned ALL opposition parties and govt took over media and thats dandy?
and Ukies are famous for corruption well before now,\but then Orbans still buying gas and not playing the usa/ukies game is he

Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 6:41 pm

Please stop this shameless fear mongering. European gas storages are filled up to at least 90%- Please see the data. Nobody is going to freeze to death this winter

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 7:50 pm

People freeze to death in Europe every winter. In fact, about 10 times as many people die from cold as they do from heat.

What is projected is that more people will die from cold. With the rapidly rising cost of electricity and gas, along with predictions of shortages, this is almost completely certain.

Jit
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
September 19, 2022 12:43 am

Not quite. There are more deaths in winter, but people aren’t freezing to death. Respiratory diseases are more the issue. That said, being too cold obviously makes such things worse, and leads to more falls in old folks, etc.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
September 19, 2022 8:19 am

The UK Government’s website says

When we start to get cold, our blood becomes thicker, which can cause clotting. Clotting can cause problems and is one of the reasons we see more heart attacks and strokes in the days following colder weather.
Being cold also affects our body’s ability to fight off infection. This is why in the weeks after the cold weather we see more deaths from infections like pneumonia, as lung conditions and coughs can develop into a more serious problem.
So, although many of us think the health risks of cold are confined to hypothermia, the reality is that many more people will die of heart and lung problems due to cold weather.

One of the suggested solutions is

Our top tip is to heat the home, or the parts of it you’re using, to at least 18°C. This is the temperature at which we start to see changes in the body, when the blood starts to thicken. So, temperatures above this are best to protect your health.

The problem this year is paying for the heat if it’s a cold winter

Joel
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 8:07 pm

How many days will the full gas strorage cover? My impression it that it can over only about 33% of the winter needs. They have to kept importing all winter.
Shame they closed down a lot of gas strorage in the UK as part of their Green push.

Fraizer
Reply to  Joel
September 19, 2022 4:24 am

Exactly. Gas storage is not a primary supply. It is winter peak augmentation over and above import pipeline capacity. Think of it as the analog of a peak shaving power station albeit on the scale of months rather than hours. The amount of storage is predicated on running pipelines at or near capacity.

Richard Page
Reply to  Joel
September 19, 2022 7:43 am

EU gas storage stands at about 80% at the moment which is enough for maybe 2 months of a mild winter, 3-4 with substantial rationing. If it’s a longer colder winter then that will not last for the whole winter. No wonder the Germans are using any pretext to seize private oil and gas storage, they’re getting desperate.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Joel
September 19, 2022 2:36 pm

You can check out the EU data here

https://agsi.gie.eu/#/historical/eu

The storage is now 85% full at 957TWh. Maximum drawdown rate is just under 20TWh/day in theory, likely to be less in practice due to grid constraints. Annual demand is about 4150TWh, but that is obviously weighted towards winter. There would of course continue to be some pipeline gas supplies from Norway and North Africa and continued LNG imports.

H.R.
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 8:52 pm

Filled up at what price, Zurab? And as asked above by Joel, how much of the Winter will those 90% full tanks cover?

If you are in a heat or eat situation, I guess you could pay a little bit for both and just slowly starve and freeze to death.

From what I’ve read (I’m US, not UK or EU so not deeply into the details) gas prices are projected to be so high that there won’t be enough money left over for food or rent for the average pensioner. And those living week to week on paychecks are already behind the curve due to inflation. They are already making tough choices now and Winter hasn’t hit yet.

Joel
Reply to  H.R.
September 19, 2022 12:29 pm

You know, considering the obesity issue in the Western world, most of us could skip a lot of meals this winter and look better and be healthier come spring. I guess a good compromise would be to cook a lot of cheap meals in a slow cooker and spend your time in the kitchen when at home. I don’t know how houses are designed in the UK, but here in the USA modern houses have an open design for kitchens, eating areas, and living room areas. You essentially have to heat most of the first floor of your house to heat the kitchen.
But I guess I would skip meals rather than freeze, but, I have the feeling that skipping meals really won’t save that much money.

John Shepherd
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 9:02 pm

Will their chocolate ration be increased to 80 grams per week too?

Dean
Reply to  John Shepherd
September 18, 2022 11:04 pm

As long as you have Minitrue then you can rejoice in whatever ration you actually get.

Dean
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 11:03 pm

And what are the assumptions about ongoing supply which the current storages can handle?

Given that the storage is capped out at a fixed value, undersupply will just mean the storages run out sooner than expected.

If you have undersupply like Europe is currently experiencing then additional storage will be required to cover any shortfalls, which will be difficult since you need more supply to fill additional storage capacity.

John Culhane
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 11:12 pm

How do the reserves work without back pressure in the pipelines?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  John Culhane
September 19, 2022 3:38 am

thank you was just about to ask the same
apparently from what I read last night
not very well if at all

mikesmith
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 11:32 pm

That storage is just a buffer to smooth out supply management under normal conditions. It is not nearly a big enough reserve to get them through the winter, because it was never intended for that purpose. Either your politicians are lying to you, or they are just dumb.

Disputin
Reply to  mikesmith
September 19, 2022 5:09 am

Either your politicians are lying to you, or they are just dumb.”

Two points – there is no either/or involved, as both can be true; and secondly, dumb means bereft of speech. Use ‘dumm‘ (from German) to mean stupid.

Last edited 13 days ago by Disputin
Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Disputin
September 19, 2022 8:26 am

In British English dumb has several meanings.

Unable to speak
Be temporarily unable to speak (struck dumb)
Stupid
Dumb electronic devices

roaddog
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 19, 2022 1:33 pm

If only they were unable to speak.

Reply to  mikesmith
September 19, 2022 8:32 am

Or both?

Auto

Redge
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 11:40 pm

 Nobody is going to freeze to death this winter

It doesn’t matter if gas storage is filled to 100% capacity.

What matters is the cost of heating a home against available income.

People on fixed incomes, usually pensioners, have little disposable income so they will have to choose between eating and heating. They simply do not have more money to pay for higher energy bills.

Please come back to us and repeat what you say when the bodies start piling up.

PCman999
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 18, 2022 11:49 pm

Filled up to 90% of the capacity of the tanks – no one said how big the tanks are.

Are they big enough for a very cold winter? And what if the wind is calm for long stretches of time and cloudy too as has happened recently, putting more demand on gas reserves.

I am tired of the doomsdayers as much as anyone but the ones high and happy on unicorn dust are bad too – people could literally die this year from screwed up climate nazi policies – whereas no one is going to die from an extra 20, or even 100 cm of sea level or an extra 1-5°C over the next 100 years – even over the next 20 years.

So find out how long those almost full tanks would last from whatever source you were looking at and let us know.

Thanks.

Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 19, 2022 12:02 am

That is about 3 weeks worth of gas. Gas which has to be split between direct heating and industrial usage and electrical power generation.

Without electrical power all central heating fails. In fact most of the West’s infrastructure fails.

PCman999
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 19, 2022 12:13 am

Only 3 weeks worth of gas???

Looks like the comforting idea of getting those tanks full was a bit of propaganda to deflect from the dire situation – and of course the media is too ennumerate to ask the obvious questions about how big and long lasting are the tanks.

Utterly shameful.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  PCman999
September 19, 2022 3:40 am

highest search term in germany is?
firewood
and stores selling out of fan heaters which of course are NOT cheap to run and require electricity anyway

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  PCman999
September 19, 2022 8:35 am

I think the EU storage will last 90 days in a “normal” year. but this is not a normal year so considerably fewer than 90 days.
the UK storage was about 6 days last time I read anything. Our Government had deided gas storage was no longer needed and we’ve been scrambling to restore what little we had during the days of North Sea gas most of which was closed

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 20, 2022 8:17 am

Yes, the Government allowed Centrica to close the Rough storage facility in the North Sea in 2017. Rough provided 70% of the UK’s gas storage capacity and could meet 10% of daily peak winter demand for almost 3 months.

The facility, which opened in 1985 did require considerable refurbishment but the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) took the view that it was not economically viable and would not help Centrica out.

The UK now stores under 2% of its annual gas demand – the result of over a decade of ‘just in time’ gas import rather indigenous storage infrastructure. This approach is estimated to have added £400m pa to consumers bills.

climate believer
Reply to  PCman999
September 19, 2022 12:10 pm

The UK has filled all it’s storage reserves, 100%. That covers 1.18% of their annual consumption of gas.

That bit never gets said.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  climate believer
September 19, 2022 2:45 pm

UK cavern storage is about 17TWh, with another 10TWh in LNG tanks. Rough has just started injecting: they hope to be able to store another 10TWh. So that would be 37 TWh against demand of 880 TWh last year. Just under 5%. But of course demand is heavily skewed towards winter normally. Apparent demand has been high this summer to supply pipeline and electricity exports, alleviating the EU shortage of LNG import capacity.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 19, 2022 3:36 am

and that will NOT last more than 3mths at very best with rationing reports stated

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 19, 2022 3:44 am

That storage would last less then 90 days (and that is with severe cut backs on levels of usage). The EU would be screwed at the end of the winter. The UK has much, much less storage.
Quoting a percentage does not truly inform us of the physical size of reserves, but you knew that, didn’t you?
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/full-gas-storage-no-fix-europes-winter-energy-crunch-2022-08-31/#:~:text=Full%20gas%20storage%20could%20sustain,90%20days%20of%20average%20demand.

Mason
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 19, 2022 1:56 pm

That vision is similar who believe if they have a battery it will carry them through. Batteries are good for hours not months. As many have said, the storage is not there to get you thru the winter, only a month or so, I think.

Mason
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 19, 2022 1:59 pm

Also, the good news is that Freeport LNG is back up and Corpus Christi has passed their environmental tests, so coming on line soon. Now if the EU just figures out to unload the tankers.

Dave Allentown
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 20, 2022 4:19 pm

Germany’s annual gas consumption is about 100 billion cubic meters. Storage capacity is 20 billion cubic meters. Consumption spikes in winter. Will current imports keep storage drawdown sufficiently low to survive a winter? Nobody who says yes shows their calculations.

ATheoK
September 18, 2022 7:00 pm

Even with today’s super powerful computers and sophisticated models, accurate seasonal predictions are still proving elusive. This should tell us that climate models looking decades into future remain nothing but high-tech, wild-ass guesses.”

Ah, no.

Using a very expensive super computer to run the same old models that used to be run on older equipment is not “high-tech”!

The adage used recently is lipstick on a pig. Lipstick never made the pig look better before, using a new color easier to apply lipstick is a waste of technology. The pig still isn’t any prettier.

Ossified in place technicians are incapable of using new technology different than how they used their old technology.

This should tell us that climate models looking decades into future remain nothing but high-tech, wild-ass guesses.” are solely wild-ass guesses.

Well, even that is not true.
A guess, implies some real knowledge is applied to making the guess. Most climate models only return the model designer’s and programmer’s confirmation biases.

another ian
Reply to  ATheoK
September 18, 2022 7:30 pm

The Russians seem to be doing better with projecting future global temperatures. Are they ahead on weather as well?

A. O'Brien
Reply to  another ian
September 19, 2022 3:31 am

I read somewhere that the Russian programmers thought that CO2 had no measurable effect on temperature, so they just left it out of their program, hence they have a much better system.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  ATheoK
September 18, 2022 11:34 pm

“A guess, implies some real knowledge is applied to making the guess.” No, if “some real knowldge is applied”. then that would be a scientific wild-ass guess.

H B
September 18, 2022 7:03 pm

Whats up with the typhoon in the sea of japan hoe hyped up is it ??

H B
Reply to  H B
September 18, 2022 7:04 pm

how not hoe

mikesmith
Reply to  H B
September 18, 2022 11:38 pm

Maybe it’s a punctuation problem. How do you know it was not meant to read:
“Whats up with the typhoon in the sea of japan, hoe? hyped up is it ??”

roaddog
Reply to  mikesmith
September 19, 2022 1:35 pm

Perhaps you could leave the Kardashians out of this.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  H B
September 19, 2022 3:41 am

theyve called evac for huge numbers so theyre worried

Chris Nisbet
September 18, 2022 7:15 pm

“Typically more right than wrong”. Is this claim correct?

“far from an established science”. Were we reminded of this when they made the claim that there was a 65% chance of a worse than usual hurricane season?

Mr.
Reply to  Chris Nisbet
September 18, 2022 8:04 pm

The 100-year old Farmers Almanac has as good a record in predicting annual seasonal conditions as all the super computer produced models do.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Mr.
September 18, 2022 9:51 pm

Both the Farmer’s Almanac & the Old Farmer’s Almanac are > 200
years old & have a “secret formula” based on sunspots & various
other scientific data points. I never followed it as it seemed
to be trying to predict weather way beyond what one knows can be
accurate. Anything beyond 3 days seems to blend in seasonal
averages with their raw predictions as by the end of a 10-day
forecast, the warmer/cooler temps that would be more in line
with seasonal averages somehow never materialize. Longer-term
seasonal forecasts are even worse, especially when the weather
pattern shifts abruptly from what it had been.

Maybe the key to staying employed as a weatherman is to
forecast something a bit worse than you really expect so if
it’s better than that, people will feel better; if it’s worse,
you won’t be off as much. For Greens, you always must blame
climate change for the reason you’re predicting doom & gloom. It
keeps people afraid- very afraid!

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/predicting-weather

https://www.almanac.com/how-old-farmers-almanac-predicts-weather

Last edited 14 days ago by Old Man Winter
Michael in Dublin
Reply to  Mr.
September 19, 2022 3:02 am

You missed out the 😉

September 18, 2022 8:54 pm

Isn’t it great! German Greens and Progressives are finding ways to recapitulate the economic glory days of 1948.

Ruination without bombs. Such an accomplishment!

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Pat Frank
September 18, 2022 9:27 pm

They just followed the instructions in their manual!

commie5.jpg
mikesmith
Reply to  Pat Frank
September 18, 2022 11:42 pm

Or you sure rather that it is not a recapitulation of their political agenda of 1848?

Frank S.
September 18, 2022 9:15 pm

La Nina’s setting up to be snottier than Greta Thunberg, promising “climate change” in the guise of a much colder than normal first half of winter in Europe.

Gary Pate
September 18, 2022 11:01 pm

We can all learn from the stupidity of the EU control freaks.

michel
September 18, 2022 11:33 pm

Unfortunately the links given do not actually point to Joe Bastardi’s accounts. A pity, its hard to assess the forecasts when one cannot actually read or listen to them.

Yirgach
Reply to  michel
September 19, 2022 7:05 am

You need to either scroll down the page to the “Saturday Summary” video or use this link:
https://storage.googleapis.com/wba-videos/1663445203_1.mp4

climate believer
September 19, 2022 1:08 am

So is this a prime example of GIGO?

It’s perfectly feasible that we could still get a mother of all hurricanes before the seasons end, but that won’t validate their terrible forecast.

“For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.”

Tom Abbott
Reply to  climate believer
September 19, 2022 12:02 pm

“NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.”

Which is absolutely meaningless.

roaddog
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 19, 2022 1:36 pm

But 100% paid for.

Michael in Dublin
September 19, 2022 1:21 am

The hurricane experts “predicted a season with above-normal to well above-normal activity.

Not to worry, perhaps they will get it right next year or if not the following year or perhaps the year after that. After all getting it wrong does not threaten their jobs and pay but contradicting the narrative may mean summary dismissal.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
September 19, 2022 5:05 pm

They have been 35% right this year, meaning they were right and the models work.

don’t you know.

UK-Weather Lass
September 19, 2022 1:59 am

Both heating AND eating are required to survive cold weather and it doesn’t have to be freezing. Almost two thirds of what we eat is used to maintain body heat when we are active or sleeping. Heating a home assumes people are adequately fed. The nighmare begins when neither heating nor eating are fulfilling their desired purpose – inadequate diet and inadequate heat are a recipe for hypothermia.

UK politicians should be ashamed of themselves for not having seen this coming since the virtue signalling begun two decades ago. The EU can blame its bureacracy for crass decision making over decades which never figured out how to achieve secure energy within.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  UK-Weather Lass
September 19, 2022 8:48 am
It doesn't add up...
September 19, 2022 2:23 am

Much more activity in the China Sea with three landfalling typhoons: one in South Korea, one South of Shanghai, and the latest over Japan.

ozspeaksup
September 19, 2022 3:29 am

radio reported Puerto Rico as being granted early emergency/disaster funds today so it got close?
as for EU cant help but hope it IS a dire winter and it gets people throwing the fools in brussels and vanderlying OUT and telling the WEF to take a hike as well

ozspeaksup
September 19, 2022 4:10 am

this mentions the proposed sanctions on Orban and other interesting stuff;-)
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/european-union-about-rupture

dh-mtl
September 19, 2022 9:10 am

Good News: 2022 Hurricane Season Mild. Bad News: Pressure Pattern Threatens Europe with Hell Winter
What do these two conditions have in common?

Weak sun and an extended La Nina.

Ted
Reply to  dh-mtl
September 19, 2022 2:31 pm

No, just the delayed response to the COVID shutdowns lowering CO2 output. The good news is this proves that if action is taken now, we can still save the planet!
/sarc

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Ted
September 19, 2022 5:01 pm

“90 days to save Europe”.

Survivor edition.

ResourceGuy
September 19, 2022 9:11 am

Not to worry about a hard winter in Europe, Liz will cap it, Ursula will tax it, and Margrethe will fine it.

Tom Abbott
September 19, 2022 12:09 pm

How many companies and jobs will Europe lose over their failure to maintain adequate, affordable electrical supplies because of their delusional obsession with regulating CO2?

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 19, 2022 1:44 pm

The highs over Greenland and Iceland are mainly a bad autumn forecast for Europe.
comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 19, 2022 1:55 pm

This winter, La Niña will fully show its strength across the globe.
comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 19, 2022 2:05 pm

Hurricane Fiona is moving toward the Turks and Caicos Islands, after devastating Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 20, 2022 12:08 am

Temperature in France on the morning of September 20, 2022.
comment image

Andy H
September 20, 2022 5:23 am

A word of warning for those with generators. Do you know how much fuel your generator will use, even on minimum load? It is likely to be a lot more than you plan for if you need to keep it going for 2 weeks (336 hours). The figures will be in the manual.

Remember, that you won’t be able to get more fuel if you run out and there is no mains electricity. The petrol stations need fuel to run their pumps.

Solid fuel and candles may be more reliable.

Matthew Schilling
September 20, 2022 8:36 am

Fiona is a big storm and looks like it is threatening Bermuda as a monster. God bless them! But won’t this storm very quickly and efficiently yank an astounding amount of energy out of the Atlantic ocean and eject it to space?

Many hurricanes make landfall in the southern US. Not this harpy! She’ll be ripping lots of heat out of the ocean for an extra few days. Isn’t a “fish storm” like this a global cooling event?

Last edited 12 days ago by Matthew Schilling
Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Matthew Schilling
September 20, 2022 12:59 pm

Fiona threatens the Bahamas and will reach as far as Canada.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

EppingBlogger
September 20, 2022 2:34 pm

The BBC’s weather fiorecast tguis evening presented Fiona in dramatic fashion and suggested it would wreck Halifax after making landfall there. The report dkid not mention the lack of hurricanes this season – one wonders why they did not think viewers would want to know.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  EppingBlogger
September 20, 2022 11:47 pm

It will be interesting to see how snow falls on the west side of the cyclone in Canada.

Jeff in Calgary
September 21, 2022 1:53 pm

In just one day, it looks like the hurricane season is heating up. By the end of the week there could be 5 storms on the go.

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