National Grid warns Britons of blackouts on ‘really cold’ evenings

Essay by Eric Worrall

WUWT recently reported how Conservative Party rebels sabotaged Liz Truss’ attempt to increase domestic gas availability by allowing fracking. Britain might be about to pay the price.

National Grid warns Britons of blackouts on ‘really cold’ evenings

FT conference hears of various ‘unlikely’ scenarios in which UK might not have sufficient energy

Nathalie Thomas, Energy Correspondent OCTOBER 18 2022

National Grid’s chief executive has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on “really, really cold” weekdays in January and February in the event of reduced gas imports from Europe.

John Pettigrew said the company would have to impose rolling power cuts on “those deepest darkest evenings in January and February” if generators failed to secure enough gas from the continent to meet demand, particularly if the country suffers a cold snap.

Pettigrew’s comments at the Financial Times’s Energy Transition Summit came after National Grid, which oversees Britain’s electricity and gas systems, this month took the unusual step of setting out various “unlikely” scenarios in which Britain might not have sufficient energy supplies this winter.

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.comT&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here
https://www.ft.com/content/d31fbbd6-8325-43b7-94e4-29101cfe6045

In those “worst case” circumstances, power would be cut off to parts of the country for up to three hours “probably between 4pm and 7pm in the evenings on those weekdays when it’s really, really cold in January and February”, Pettigrew said.

Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/d31fbbd6-8325-43b7-94e4-29101cfe6045

I would love to know why John Pettigrew, CEO of National Grid, thinks energy shortage scenarios are “unlikely”.

Britain and Europe could have a mild winter – that possibility exists. The British MET are forecasting a mild winter, though they haven’t ruled out the possibility of cold spells.

If winter weather turns nasty, there could be severe energy shortages.

I doubt Russian gas will come to the rescue. There seems little prospect of an imminent outbreak of common sense in the Russia / Ukraine conflict. Both sides are currently trading claims the other side wants to detonate a radioactive dirty bomb in Kherson.

So long as the conflict drags on, Europe will remain cut off from previously reliable Russian gas supplies. What gas does get through will be subject to geopolitical games.

President Biden offered US gas to Europe, but the plan to export US gas to Britain and Europe could break down this winter. The US North East is running short of gas, thanks to energy policy incompetence, so if the North East winter turns cold, it seems likely there will be demands for the diversion of any US fossil fuel exports back to US consumers.

The situation in Europe without Russian gas is dire. Germany is so worried about energy shortages they are preparing for riots, preparing special federal police squads to maintain order in the event of a general breakdown in society – so I doubt Germany would agree to giving Britain any of their share of European gas supplies.

Britain has a large electricity inter-connector to France, so Britain can access French nuclear capacity. But France is currently experiencing major problems with their nuclear reactors, a sizeable fraction of their nuclear fleet has been shut down for maintenance, because of corrosion concerns. If winter turns cold, France would most likely take care of their own people first, and keep their energy for themselves.

Liz Truss, to her credit, tried to do something about the shortages, but British Conservative rebels sabotaged Liz Truss’ gallant, last ditch attempt to increase domestic gas availability, by attaching a prolonged review process to any attempts to permit fracking. I had my doubts about Liz, but she really put herself on the line to try to alleviate Britain’s horror winter energy shortage – only to be torn down by short sighted fools in her own party.

So it seems very likely indeed that Britain will face at least some periods of energy and heating insecurity this winter.

If this winter turns cold, and the power and heat fails, civil unrest and riots could break out.

I don’t think the politicians who wrecked Britain and Germany’s energy security fully appreciate where the mess they have created could lead. They seem complacently confident they are safe from any unrest amongst the peasants.

Update from Breitbart, New British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has reinstated the fracking ban.

4.9 15 votes
Article Rating
137 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 6:06 am

This might end like Sri Lanka?

Mr David Guy-Johnson
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 6:13 am

No

Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 7:19 am

Worse

Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 2:37 pm

Perhaps. After all, Britons, for the most part, tamely submitted to the insane diktats of the CoViD-19 years.

However, they had a leader then who commanded nearly universal respect, if not reverence.

No, I don’t mean BoJo.

IanE
Reply to  writing observer
October 28, 2022 1:35 am

?

Gerry, England
Reply to  IanE
October 28, 2022 8:10 am

No, me neither?????

Reply to  Gerry, England
October 28, 2022 10:41 am

Sigh. Obviously you have internet access, so should be connected to world events?

Queen Elizabeth II is no longer in Buckingham Palace. The wastrel that is there now is a major booster of the “green” fraud that is set to kill a fairly large number of Britons this winter.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 9:23 am

Sri Lanka was the ‘bankable’ feasibility study for the looming disaster in Europe. No doubt that it will happen.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 27, 2022 12:55 pm

I’d rather be in Sri Lanka during the depths of winter!

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 9:44 am

Better throw some more North American forests on the fires at Drax.

Also, tell us what it’s like setting up windmills in the North Sea during winter.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 9:46 am

You mean they may end up in Sri Lanka to get warm.

Tom Halla
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 27, 2022 9:55 am

I mean it might be pitchforks and torches time for a change of government, like Sri Lanka.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 10:31 am

Obviously

Reply to  Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 11:27 am

Ah, but then all likely alternatives – Labour, the EU-loving Liberal Democrats [not Liberal; & hate democracy if it doesn’t go their way]; or even one or both of these in cahoots [‘Coalition’] with the far-left Socialist National Party of Scotland [SNP] – will go bananas for the same irresponsible, treasonous, lethal wind n Sun nonsense.
Pitchfork Time arrives – but who takes over?
Obviously not the sainted Griff …..
But who?

Auto

Tom Halla
Reply to  auto
October 27, 2022 11:40 am

I do not know British politics well enough to guess, but there are people not currently in politics who might get involved.
Perot did rather well for awhile, but ended up throwing the election to Bill Clinton. In 2000, Trump was flirting with the remnants of Perot’s party, so someone you consider unlikely may take over.

Richard Page
Reply to  auto
October 27, 2022 12:14 pm

Labour are in an unofficial coalition with the SNP in Scotland and with the Lib Dems in England against the Conservatives. I’m also incredibly suspicious of the timing of some of these strikes – it looks more like an organised campaign than anything else. It might just be me being a bit more paranoid than cynical or…

Last edited 1 month ago by Richard Page
Campsie Fellow
Reply to  Richard Page
October 28, 2022 3:43 am

Labour are in an unofficial coalition with the SNP in Scotland 
Any evidence for that?
The SNP don’t need Labour in Scotland. They’ve formed a coalition with the Scottish Green Party. Two Green MSPs now hold positions in the Scottish government.

Richard Page
Reply to  Campsie Fellow
October 28, 2022 5:01 am

“The SNP don’t need Labour in Scotland.” very true but it may have escaped your attention that there are also SNP in Westminster? If they want to get anything done for Scotland through Parliament, they need all the help they can get as a minority regional party.

Pariah Dog
Reply to  auto
October 28, 2022 7:59 am

Reform UK and/or Reclaim UK, two similar sounding parties, are the only ones that have the sort of ideas that might change the status quo. Reclaim is led by Lawrence Fox, who I believe played Hunter Biden in the recent movie “My Son Hunter”. Reform is led by Richard Tice, and was founded by Nigel Farage. I believe Reform was UKIP, then the Brexit Party.

Neither party currently has any significant support, unfortunately.

Truthbknown
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 27, 2022 10:18 am

Its the only way it will ever end! When the “elites” and their families are dragged from their homes and beaten to death by an angry populace in front of the entire world! Bring it!!

Richard Page
Reply to  Truthbknown
October 27, 2022 12:18 pm

O-kay. Has anyone ever suggested anger management to you before? Or anti-psychotic medication, perhaps?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 28, 2022 4:37 am

true but there IS a need to clean house and sadly a violent uprising tends to be the only way to do it
voting sure as hell doesnt work
meet the new boss/same as the old boss
though my idea would be to remove ALL public servant when the votes happened and make them re apply or move em around
its the little grey men nonentities that really run the countries, and they do as they please regardless of the partys name in supposed control..yes minister!

Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 28, 2022 6:34 am

Sadly, the second – or third – or fourth – etc. revolution frequently doesn’t do the trick, either.

Richard Page
Reply to  writing observer
October 28, 2022 9:07 am

Sadly violence tends just to lead to violence and the cycle continues.

kwinterkorn
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 28, 2022 9:31 am

Chiang Kai-Shek (and his son)of Taiwan and Pinochet of Chile both held dictatorial power and allowed a constitutional Democratic process to replace them. So it can happen.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Truthbknown
October 28, 2022 8:11 am

Sounds good to me – when do we start?

DMacKenzie
October 27, 2022 6:12 am

Government control over how you heat your house is destined to not end well….

jeffery p
Reply to  DMacKenzie
October 27, 2022 6:26 am

On the other hand, think of all the savings! No fuel means you can’t run the furnace. Viola! No heating bills!

Reply to  jeffery p
October 27, 2022 7:20 am

Leave my musical instrument out of it

strativarius
Reply to  Leo Smith
October 27, 2022 8:18 am

Viola?

The ugly sister of the family.

Richard Page
Reply to  strativarius
October 27, 2022 4:14 pm

Thought she was one of twins?

Dave Ward
Reply to  jeffery p
October 27, 2022 11:25 am

You might not be billed for the gas you can’t use, but the “Standing Charge” still applies…

IanE
Reply to  jeffery p
October 28, 2022 1:38 am

And think of government savings on pension payments once Granny meets her maker!

Reply to  DMacKenzie
October 27, 2022 8:14 am

REQUIEM – HYPOTHESIS: RADICAL GREENS ARE THE GREAT KILLERS OF OUR AGE April 14, 2019


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scientists-warn-of-a-rare-third-year-la-nina/#comment-3624500
[excerpt] 

“However, since the turn of the current century, three instances of so-called “double dip” La Niña events have occurred, in 2007–09, 2010–12 and 2020–22.”
 
Note that 2007-09 and 2010-12 coincide with the end of SC23 and 2020-22 coincides with the end of SC24.
 
In 2002 we predicted global cooling to start by 2020-2030 and in 2013 I refined that to “2020 or sooner” – I favor Feb2020 as the date of start-of-cooling, but some prefer Feb2016.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/17/open-thread-35/#comment-3603080
[excerpt] 

My concern now is Britain, Germany and the other European countries who have crippled their grids with intermittent green energy schemes.
 
I published on 28July2022:
“The big cull of the elderly of Europe will happen this winter – we predicted it in 2002 and 2013…”
 
Will British and German MP’s ever realize the harm they’ve done with their green nonsense?
 
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scientists-warn-of-a-rare-third-year-la-nina/#comment-3624741
[excerpt] 

My very competent friend, meteorologist Joe Bastardi recently wrote:

Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis
On another subject, some forecasters have been projecting a milder than normal winter for Europe, which would be welcome with a red carpet due to the continent’s acute energy crisis.
However, Joe notes there are signs this may not be the case. That would mean the coming winter could become – in the current dire energy situation – the Mother of Nightmares: a bitter cold winter with energy outages. In the event of blackouts, which many experts warn have a high chance of occurring, Europe would then be facing a humanitarian and economic crisis on a scale not seen in a very long time.
“Look at what the surface maps are showing,” Bastardi says. “When you have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland, and low pressure over Spain like that, folks, that is an ugly looking situation for the winter. That is similar to 2010/11.”
 
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scientists-warn-of-a-rare-third-year-la-nina/#comment-3624811
 
More about:
Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis
 
I think Joe B and his partner Joe D’Aleo are among the very best long term weather forecasters, and I take their predictions very seriously. In a personal email to me, Joe wrote, ”It’s dire looking” and I agreed with him.

I recently concluded that “The (Covid-19) vaxxed are screwed”. It’s too late to turn that around; the damage has been done. I feel the same way about the Brits and Germans this winter – if Joe B’s forecast holds true, “The elderly and poor of Europe are screwed”. I am not happy about any of this. It was ALL the avoidable result of Covid and Climate false hysteria.
Most scientists are happy when their predictions are correct – I’ll be happy if mine are wrong.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/23/open-thread-38/#comment-3627667
 
High Heating Costs Spur a Run on ‘Warm Banks’ in UK – Bloomberg
“Warm Banks” is the last desperate move of the failed UK government. I approve, because it will reduce mortality this winter – but it’s all they can do, having totally sabotaged their national grid with excess intermittent wind power and inadequate reliable fossil-fueled power. We told them so 20 years ago.

Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 27, 2022 8:16 am

I’m feeling generous today by not deleting this. Will probably not happen again.

Truthbknown
Reply to  Charles Rotter
October 27, 2022 10:29 am

^^ Nazi censor-bot scum! ^^
Who do you think you are? Disgusting!

Last edited 1 month ago by Truthbknown
Richard Page
Reply to  Truthbknown
October 27, 2022 12:20 pm

Calm down dear, you’ll do yourself a mischief going all unnecessary like that!

Reply to  Charles Rotter
October 27, 2022 1:31 pm

Thank you for your generosity, Charles.
I wanted this Summary published because, IF I am correct and there is a huge cull of the elderly and poor this winter, I want these pseudo-green killers in Britain and Germany to be prosecuted.
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this utterly obtuse, this wrong, for this long – they knew what they were doing.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Charles Rotter
October 28, 2022 4:42 am

what was wrong with that Charles?

Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 27, 2022 1:58 pm

DIED SUDDENLY | OFFICIAL TRAILER – Streaming November 21st – Stew Peters
 
Better sit down before watching this short clip.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 28, 2022 5:19 am

whiles some it may be sensationalised the insurance companies figures arent
and they(laughing) will be the ones paying out huge sums while the pharmas and govts etc have indemnity
enough payouts and things might change?

Hivemind
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 28, 2022 2:14 am

Your link to the likely third year La Nina reminds me that the Australian BOM has predicting an end to the La Nina for three years running. I don’t know if they’re deluded, or genuinely think that if they predict it every year, eventually they’ll be right. And of course, nobody will remember all the times they were wrong.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Hivemind
October 28, 2022 5:21 am

it had dropped a bit but I see shes back in the .5 and rising again last few days, the IOD is having a much larger effect
the SOI is still pretty weak SA and sth vic still getting weather pushed up n away

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Allan MacRae
October 28, 2022 4:41 am

I havent checked Piers Corbyns winter uk forecast Id bet hes more close to reality though

Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 28, 2022 9:48 pm

weatheraction.com It will cost you 105 pounds for his forecast.
Pure speculation on your part – pony up!

Truthbknown
Reply to  DMacKenzie
October 27, 2022 10:23 am

Government control over anything is bad! People want to put them in charge of your health??? Idiots!!

MarkW
Reply to  DMacKenzie
October 27, 2022 5:22 pm

Government control of just about anything is destined to not end well.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  DMacKenzie
October 28, 2022 4:38 am

tell us about it
aussies were the test piggies for dumb meters
and we ARE paying for it in massive charges for supply n service and they can and will control power to homes as they please using it

Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 6:13 am

Hmm, but even if fracking got the go ahead tomorrow, which would be great, it wouldn’t make any difference to this winter’s gas supply

John Garrett
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 6:23 am

You are correct; nevertheless, it is the principle of the thing that matters.

Disputin
Reply to  John Garrett
October 27, 2022 6:26 am

No, sod “principles”, its the result of the thing that matters.

strativarius
Reply to  Disputin
October 27, 2022 6:51 am

I think the Tesco principle applies, here.

Every little helps

H.R.
Reply to  strativarius
October 27, 2022 8:47 am

Unless it’s overridden by too little, too late.

n.n
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 7:03 am

Not to mention the forward-looking risk of election of a hostile regime serves as a perpetual, possibly catastrophic, anthropogenic cost forcing.

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 7:40 am

I recall reading a story about how a nuclear project was opposed a decade ago because it wouldn’t be producing power until 2022. Guess what year it is now?
Its a step, and if the fracking ban was gone when things go into the toilet at least they could point and say they are working on it. Now there is nothing.

People are likely to die, politicians feel it won’t be them, maybe they shouldn’t be so sure? Police and army members are people with homes and families like anyone else. This is an issue that will affect absolutely everyone except the ultra rich.

At least Truss appeared to grasp there is a problem.

Josh
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 8:39 am

Fracking now would make a difference to next winter’s supplies and not starting it now would be the best way to increase the likelihood of a crunch next year. But quite possibly fracking now could make a difference even this winter. If a new revenue for gas was to start next year, bringing prices down then, it would incentivise anyone who could sell now to sell now while prices were higher and depleting emergency reserves now knowing there is more coming later would make more sense. If there is a difference I’ve no idea as to whether the difference this winter would be meaningful or not. Either way, it would make a difference next year.

H.R.
Reply to  Josh
October 27, 2022 8:57 am

So long as old saws are flying about…

The longest journey begins with a single step.

Nothing will ever get done about gas supplies and prices if fracking isn’t started. You’re right. At some point sooner or later, it will make a difference.

MarkW
Reply to  H.R.
October 27, 2022 1:03 pm

Reminds me of Obama declaring that we couldn’t drill our way out of the then current oil crisis.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Josh
October 27, 2022 9:11 am

Just taking action to improve the supply picture would calm market nerves. We have had close to 18 months to get started since prices started signalling alarm as we came out of lockdowns, and done nothing. If you look at the forward markets, they keep ratcheting up as the delays increase.

Truthbknown
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 27, 2022 10:21 am

It will if you people rise up and start fracking “elite” skulls!

Hivemind
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
October 28, 2022 2:17 am

It may be too late for this year, but you still need to think about what will happen next year and the year after that. If the government gets away with only allowing ‘a few’ grannies to die, they’ll double-down on the green power until they find out how many we will allow them to kill.

John Garrett
October 27, 2022 6:22 am

We all know that none of the people who sabotaged the attempt to allow fracking will ever be held responsible for their actions.

If someone dies from hypothermia in Britain this winter, wouldn’t a charge of manslaughter be appropriate?

Dave Ward
Reply to  John Garrett
October 27, 2022 11:34 am

If someone dies from hypothermia in Britain this winter, wouldn’t a charge of manslaughter be appropriate?

There’s probably as much chance of that happening as for similar charges being pressed at the “Just Stop Oil” morons who caused 2 days of traffic disruption recently, when they scaled the Dartford bridge.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11339281/Dartford-Bridge-eco-activists-blood-hands-death-two-women-horror-crash.html

jeffery p
October 27, 2022 6:24 am

The US is handicapped by not only the FJB regime but by the Jones Act, which limits shipping between US ports (see https://www.grassrootinstitute.org/2016/03/what-is-the-jones-act/). This means we can’t ship LNG from the Gulf to the northeast ports because the LNG tanker fleet isn’t Jones Act compliant. President Brandon isn’t likely to give a waiver unless Big Labor acquiesces.*

*Wasn’t it great when we had a president who didn’t owe favors to big-money special interest groups? But hey, no more mean tweets, so it’s worth it, innit?

MarkW
Reply to  jeffery p
October 27, 2022 7:50 am

From all appearances, shortly after the election, the railways in the US are going to be completely shut down due to a rail strike.
First, isn’t it convenient that the unions waited until after the election to tank the economy.
Second, I find it interesting that the same people who get their panties in wad over a company having more than 20 to 30% of a market, have no problem with a single union being able to shut down an entire industry.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  MarkW
October 27, 2022 9:09 am

Yes, a single union could cause a shut down. Actually, there are 12 unions involved in railroad labor. 4 have signed on to a new contract so far. If one of the 8 remaining unions go on strike, the others won’t cross the picket lines.
Zerohedge.com/political/big-rail-workers-union-rejects-biden-backed-labor-deal-renews-strike-possibility
According to some insiders, the carriers were interested in stalling the contract agreements until after their fiscal year which ends in October so as to hold off the expense to the next year. The unions kept agreeing to tentative agreements which keep labor working until there is a vote. Since all other cooling off periods have expired the stalling of a strike by this method appears to suggest that the unions don’t want to strike but still want improved conditions and pay.

It seems that Biden and the midterm elections have little to do with negotiations. Biden calling for the President Emergency Board was just adding another cooling off period which the carriers wanted anyway.

Last edited 1 month ago by Brad-DXT
strativarius
October 27, 2022 6:26 am

For the moment the gods are being very kind to us. We’ve had a plume from Africa that has lifted temperatures up to 19C or 20C.

Needless to say, although the BBC et al couldn’t shriek we’re all gonna fry, they have settled on the description of slightly warmer days as “incredibly mild” etc

“The Met Office has confirmed the period from January to September was the hottest first nine months of the year since its records began in 1884.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/16/britain-bask-balmy-southerly-winds-mild-spell-sees-october/

What? 1884? Well it depends on the narrative, I suppose?

“The UK has experienced its sunniest spring since records began in 1929”https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52849367

“The UK has had the wettest winter since national records began in 1910” – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26367160

We have records going back to at least 1836. 

It really does depend on the weather!

garboard
October 27, 2022 6:52 am

weather is unpredictable . all the ingredients for a very active atlantic hurricane season were in place this summer , yet wave after wave came off the african coast without developing into a storm .

robin townsend
October 27, 2022 6:53 am

It is very disappointing that the central premise of this article is alarmist. allowing fracking now will have absolutely no affect on Jan or Feb blackouts next year.
It would not have harmed the article to have written it in proper timescales and so it is very poor that it is not.

Richard Page
Reply to  robin townsend
October 27, 2022 7:13 am

True, but the situation is unlikely to suddenly sort itself out come March or April – this is something that will be needed for years to come. North Sea gas fields have boosted productivity by over 27% so far this year and, if the new round of licences goes ahead under the Sunak regime, that could see 100 new leases in 900 areas, which will boost production even further in years to come. Fracking is not a short-term solution, but it is a solution to the long-term energy supply problem, now we’ll have to see what happens in years to come to see just how monumentally stupid this decision has been.

Reply to  robin townsend
October 27, 2022 7:22 am

The problem is that this will be used to steer subsidy and finance towards yet more useless pointless and expensive windfarms

At least given fracking we could have stated that there would be a need to start any more wind

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Leo Smith
October 27, 2022 9:05 am

Eureka! Green Subsidy Goldmine!

“Step Two- then a miracle occurs”
technology combining PV solar & stored hydro.

(Photo: Geoff Sherrington)

PVhydro.jpg
Rod Evans
Reply to  Old Man Winter
October 27, 2022 9:26 am

Well that’s one way to wash the panels. 🙂 Another benefit is, it proves work for the inverter replacement teams….

Reply to  Rod Evans
October 27, 2022 11:43 am

Hey, green jobs will include wiping the panels, too.
Know anyone’s idiot scum son who might be capable?
If allowed into Australia . . . .

Auto

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Old Man Winter
October 28, 2022 5:25 am

need hail

n.n
October 27, 2022 6:58 am

Net-Zero tolerance.

October 27, 2022 7:19 am

Yep, its full on GreenCrap™ from YAOPPE* ArtStudent™

It has been observed that keen crossword puzzlers have determined that the most appropriate anagram of the week is “Hi Risk Anus”.

*Yet Another Oxford Politics Philsophy and Economics

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Leo Smith
October 27, 2022 9:27 am

There are alternatives

I rush, I sank
I rash, I sunk
Hair un kiss

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Leo Smith
October 27, 2022 11:24 am

Perfect! This is the best an most apt anagram of a politician’s name since Virginia Bottomley, ” I am an evil tory bigot”! With your permission I will be using this whenever referring to the WEF puppet sunak.

oeman 50
October 27, 2022 7:20 am

And from the “Can’t get any worse” category, French nuclear workers have gone on strike, affecting 20 of the plants, causing delays in their return to service…..

Explainer: Strikes at French nuclear plants – what’s at stake? | Reuters

Michael in Dublin
October 27, 2022 7:30 am

While I do not wish a really cold winter on ordinary Brits, it seems that only a fierce winter with massive energy shortages may force politicians to begin to face reality and discredit the green nutters. It may well be better happening now than later.

Last edited 1 month ago by Michael in Dublin
strativarius
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
October 27, 2022 7:34 am

only a fierce winter with massive energy shortages may force politicians to begin to face reality and discredit the green nutters”

I wish I shared your ‘faith’ in the matter.

saveenergy
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
October 27, 2022 7:52 am

Sadly we need a bitter winter (like 1947 ) & lots of starving people dying in frozen homes … even then most politicians wont face reality unless they can blame someone else.

Michael in Dublin
Reply to  saveenergy
October 27, 2022 8:11 am

One of the deaths in that winter was a gifted musician, only 46, who worked for the BBC. I got to know his wife in the seventies but only recently discovered the circumstances around his death – extreme cold, fuel and food shortages and rationing in the winter of 47. His unexpected death as he had been a healthy individual was directly linked to the cold.

Richard Page
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
October 27, 2022 2:17 pm

Don’t be naive – it’ll be used and spun by both sides until it no longer bears any relation to the truth.
You may remember a spike in excess mortality somewhere around 2013-15 that was due to an EU wide flu outbreak? Which was then spun by leftwing activists as exclusively due to Tory austerity cuts, despite occurring in several countries across the EU simultaneously.

Peta of Newark
October 27, 2022 7:46 am

The juice has to be back on by 7 so that the vast numbers of folks addicted to the socially, morally, sexually and everything else-illy dysfunctional Soap Operas can get their fix.
Gotta keep the Opium (for the masses) flowing no matter what – else there really will be trouble

strativarius
Reply to  Peta of Newark
October 27, 2022 7:49 am

Phew! For a moment I thought you were going to include reality TV – and there’s an awful lot of it about.

Mike
October 27, 2022 8:22 am

I was astounded that trying to stop fracking is being done by the conservative party in Britain. They must have a totally different set of values over there as in the US the conservatives would never go along with this.
I wonder Eric, do the British people use generators for backup like here?

strativarius
Reply to  Mike
October 27, 2022 8:31 am

There hasn’t been a Conservative party since ~1990 or so.

saveenergy
Reply to  strativarius
October 27, 2022 10:13 am

I disagree !!!
There hasn’t been a Conservative, Labour or Liberal party since ~1990;
now they all come out of the same sausage machine.

Come back Guy Fawkes all is forgiven.

Dave Ward
Reply to  Mike
October 27, 2022 11:45 am

Do the British people use generators for backup like here?

Only a handful of us (I’ve also got a battery + inverter alternative). The vast majority don’t seem to give it any consideration – undoubtedly due to decades of extremely reliable electricity supply…

James B.
October 27, 2022 8:29 am

I recommend investing in some goose down attire, and a thick quilt.
Keep a trickle of water going through the pipes to reduce the chances of a freeze rupture.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  James B.
October 27, 2022 12:03 pm

Hasn’t there been a rush on the clothing stores yet?

Bruce Cobb
October 27, 2022 8:33 am

Let them burn cake!

CD in Wisconsin
October 27, 2022 8:47 am

I don’t think the politicians who wrecked Britain and Germany’s energy security fully appreciate where the mess they have created could lead. They seem complacently confident they are safe from any unrest amongst the peasants.

***********

Was it Ronald Reagan who said that government can be the problem rather than the solution to problems? Or something like that.

Lack of literacy in science and engineering in the political and activist ranks is taking its toll in the UK and mainland Europe.

CD in Wisconsin
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
October 27, 2022 9:02 am

Here it is in full….

“Government is not a solution to our problem, government is the problem. … Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them. Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. If it stops moving, subsidize it. … The problem is not that people are taxed too little, the problem is that government spends too much.” ~ Ronald Reagan

TOP 25 QUOTES BY RONALD REAGAN (of 1096) | A-Z Quotes (azquotes.com)

I acknowledge that the quote above is not always true. The problem is knowing when it is.

Patrick B
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
October 27, 2022 9:21 am

Given enough time with a “problem”, the quote is always true.

MarkW
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
October 27, 2022 1:10 pm

I can’t think of any “problem” that has been tackled by government, that has actually improved over time.

TonyG
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
October 27, 2022 2:45 pm

I’m having a hard time coming up with a case where it isn’t true. Care to help?

Rud Istvan
October 27, 2022 8:56 am

This winter will be a La Niña. If the typical pattern holds, it will mean an unusually cold winter for Europe. The consequences will be unavoidably grim.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 27, 2022 9:49 am

Exxon knew of course. /sarc

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 28, 2022 2:26 pm

Closer to home the news is not great either…..

comment image

William Capron
October 27, 2022 8:59 am

What we need is a Pelaton=type company to market exercise equipment that powers a heater so all of us oldsters could generate our own energy … and maybe put the kids and grandkids to work.

William Capron
Reply to  William Capron
October 27, 2022 10:51 am

Why, I might even invite griff or nick stokes over if they’ll peddle [sic] for a couple hours.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  William Capron
October 27, 2022 11:42 am

I don’t think they’re into real work like that.

Hivemind
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 28, 2022 2:27 am

I don’t think that they’re into things that work.

Gary Pearse
October 27, 2022 9:14 am

“France is currently experiencing major problems with their nuclear reactors, a sizeable fraction of their nuclear fleet has been shut down for maintenance, because of corrosion concerns.”

France is in dire need for a Canadian Candu reactor for backup power! These are modular, with a planned obsolescence schedule – run for 27yrs, upgrade for another 13yrs and retired after 40yrs. 10yrs ago, a module cost CDN350 million and takes 3yrs to build – no cost overruns (like Henry Ford’s invention). The most recent upgrades had a fuel cost of ~ USD O.O2/kWh fuel cost for electricity!!

At Bruce Point, Ontario the world’s largest nuke plant made of 7 modules operated since the 1960s (S.Korea took over being largest – you guessed it – it’s a Candu!). More goodies. They use non-enriched uranium, most of the power coming from fission of U3O8 which synergistically undergoes fission with utilization of ‘spare’ neutrons captured (possibly the very neutrons that are crippling France’s nukes).

It gets even better! The special configuration of the fuel rods permits refuelling without needing to shutdown. Candus have been running essentially trouble free since their invention over 60yrs ago. A nuclear accident is when a plant worker spills a cup of coffee.

The research facility at Chalk River, Ontario also built the first molten salt reactor in 1947 and collaborated with Oak Ridge on theirs in the 1950s. Chalk River’s ran until the 1990s. The facility also collaborated on the Manhattan Project!

https://lanl.libguides.com/c.php?g=1248595&p=9138432

The US even sent Navy Lieutenant Jimmy Carter to Chalk River to assist with cleanup of a very nasty nuclear accident in the 1950s. The chauvinism in the nuclear industry is thick. That’s why France and much of the world uses rubbing-two- sticks-together-to-make-a-fire nuclear tech.

Green Dragon
October 27, 2022 9:58 am

That is terrible analysis. The policy to restart fracking proposed by Liz Truss had very little chance of being passed by the UK Parliament. Even if it had been agreed, it would have taken years for any gas to be generated from fracking so the policy has no impact on any short term supply shortages this winter.
The analysis by National Grid was to highlight extreme circumstances in which there may be short term blackouts. A cold winter was therefore not deemed to be an extreme event. It is highly unlikely that the UK will be unable to acquire adequate gas supplies. Europe has almost reached their target storage for the winter and there are ships offshore waiting to refill the facilities later in the winter.

bigoilbob
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 28, 2022 6:34 am

Caudrilla already has some test wells.”

Even if the IP rates from the zones that were tested could have been achieved from the rest, any reasonable shale decline type curves would have resulted in uneconomic production schedules. And this is a pie in the sky scenario, given the fact that Caudrilla would have followed universal gas field practice and tested the probable best intervals first.

https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/production-operations/unconventional-resources/article/14233606/cuadrilla-resources-ordered-to-plug-and-abandon-shale-wells

As for the earthquake risk, it was probably small. CONUS swarms were/are from overworked, antique, Arbuckle haz waste wells. I assume the best – that if development proceeded, they would have properly constructed adequate aqueous haz waste capacity.

Sunak was wrong to stop the development. Rather, he should have let it go on, using API best practices and demanding real time lock boxing of P90 asset retirement costs. IMO, that would have reality checked the whole business. But if I were wrong, then that would be the best outcome

Last edited 1 month ago by bigoilbob
Richard Page
Reply to  Green Dragon
October 27, 2022 2:28 pm

As I pointed out elsewhere, the EU has reached target storage for LNG but is still woefully short for gas (which LNG must be processed into before it can be used). Even if the gas storage was at 100%, this represents just a few weeks of use – cold weather over much of the winter months will burn through that stored amount and need more. The EU hasn’t got enough gas storage capacity to last all 27 countries for more than 2-3 weeks even with the rationing that’s been put in place. I hope it will be a mild winter, otherwise it’ll be a bit iffy at times.

Truthbknown
October 27, 2022 10:17 am

This is what happens when Free People refuse to Fight back!!

ResourceGuy
October 27, 2022 10:17 am

This is what happens when Greens and their politicos design the energy policy in a vacuum.

Hivemind
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 28, 2022 2:30 am

Or a sound bubble

It doesnot add up
October 27, 2022 10:23 am

Reduced gas imports from Europe? I’d expect none at all. Indeed, they will be begging us for gas if we can land enough LNG. They will also be begging us for electricity, except we won’t have enough for ourselves if we get cold and Dunkelflaute.

Fact is it won’t be gas supply that is the constraint. It will be available dispatchable capacity since we closed more coal and nuclear and added nothing compared with a year ago. Just before Christmas last year we had some cold Dunkelflaute, with every CCGT plant in operation, plus nuclear plus coal plus hydro plus… and we only got by because we could bid high enough to ensure 5.6GW supply on all the interconnectors. Best case is we get nothing, rather than having to supply the French with 4GW, the Dutch and Belgians with 1GW apiece, the Irish with 750MW, and the Norwegians (on behalf of the Germans and Danes) with 1.4GW. Accounting for closures we would be over 16GW short.

Dave Ward
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 27, 2022 11:53 am

There’s also several GW’s of STOR* – reciprocating engine/gensets spread around the country. These are mostly diesel powered, with a few running on natural gas. They are primarily to help out with short duration high demand, but (subject to fuel supplies) could be run for longer.

*Short Term Operational Reserve

Bob
October 27, 2022 11:20 am

These people are dumb as rocks. The Ukraine war didn’t cause the current problems with energy, it merely moved the day of reckoning forward. The inexcusable move to wind and solar is the clear culprit. If wind and solar were an effective alternative to fossil fuel and nuclear we would all be better off now than before but we aren’t we are worse off. The more we rely on wind and solar the worse off we will become. It is inevitable. If we hadn’t built one wind or solar project we would be better off, if we had continued to rely on fossil fuel and nuclear none of this would have happened. It is so stupid.

Rob_Dawg
October 27, 2022 11:37 am

Lighting bonfires to power the solar panels and some diesel generators to turn the wund turbines will do the trick.

Joseph Zorzin
October 27, 2022 12:07 pm

Buy a few cords of seasoned wood for those cold nights.

Richard Page
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 27, 2022 4:22 pm

British people are inventive – the urban estate crowds have used improvised community fireplaces before now; aka setting cars on fire!

Ray
October 27, 2022 1:24 pm

This post led me to wonder about the progress with the East Med pipeline which would transport natural gas from the fields off of Cyprus and Israel to Greece and onward into the rest of Europe. I found an article reporting that the Biden Administration withdrew U.S. support for the pipeline last January. Turkey, which opposes the pipeline, aired a video of a statement by the State Department political appointee charged with this area of responsibility in which he says:

“Why would we build a fossil fuel pipeline between the EastMed and Europe when our entire policy is to support new technology… and new investments in going green and in going clean?” he asked. “By the time this pipeline is built, we will have spent billions of taxpayer money on something that is obsolete – not only obsolete but against our collective interest between the US and Europe.”

“This project probably will not happen because it’s too complicated, too expensive, and too late in the arch of history,” he said.”

I wonder what freezing Europeans will think of this action as their grids collapse.

another ian
October 27, 2022 2:47 pm
October 27, 2022 3:12 pm

Warnings seem counterproductive.
If people expect blackouts on really cold nights, a weather forecast of a really cold night might convince people to turn up their thermostat during the afternoon to get their homes as warm as they could tolerate. If they later lose power on that very cold night, at least they will start the blackout with a very warm home. At least that’s how I think.

Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Greene
October 27, 2022 4:25 pm

And if a lot of people think along the same lines then the warning of blackouts could become a self fulfilling prophecy.

michel
October 28, 2022 1:40 am

85% of houses in the UK are heated and get hot water from gas. But the boilers and heating systems require electricity to work. They are hot water systems. The radiators are water filled, and require a pump to circulate the water through the heat exchanger in the boiler. What happens is, thermostat calls for heat, this triggers the pump, which then triggers the boiler.

Some houses still have large cylinders which store hot water, but many use so called ‘combi’ boilers, where there is no water store, but mains water is heated as the hot taps are opened.

Some will still be cooking on gas, but most will now be using electric hobs and ovens.

Most of the rest of the houses will be rural and oil heated. Same principle. Thermostat calls for heat which triggers pump which triggers boiler. Almost all of these houses will be cooking on electricity.

So if they really do have a blackout in early evening, that means no heat, for lots of people no hot water, and no cooking.

You might think that the oil fired people, mostly in rural locations off the gas grid, will be better off, because they are immune to natural gas availability and price fluctuations, but given the above its not the case. And in any case there are very few gravity fed oil installations at this point which means they have an extra dependency. Tanks are mostly located now at ground level and the boiler draws in the kerosene. With a pump, powered by electricity.

There are a small number of LPG tank installations, but the same thing, the pumped hot water thing, applies to them.

The only way to be sure of heat this winter is to be one of the few rural installations with a solid fuel stove. You will be sitting in the dark, reading perhaps by candlelight or an emergency battery powered light, but at least you’ll be warm. Assuming that your neighbors have not bought up all the available coal!

How likely is it? Almost certain. The usual week long blocking high will happen, there will be no wind and almost no solar, and there will be a gas shortage. The utter idiocy of converting power generation to intermittent sources liable to week long outages in the coldest and darkest times of the year!

Buy down and fleece, you will need them. And vote against Net Zero, if you ever get a chance, because its going to get worse, not better, the longer that idiocy is persisted in.

Ed Danczak
October 28, 2022 1:49 am

Hello, the “blackout” story is a contrived MSM scare story. Every autumn the Grid produces a forecast, mostly ignored but always has a worst case scenario. In the U.K. we have a substantial power mix, and export and import power from the European grid as well as Norway. Currently catastrophism is the vogue, but even with “really really cold” (define please) blackouts are highly unlikely.

michel
Reply to  Ed Danczak
October 28, 2022 10:24 am

No, this year they are likely. Because gas and French nuclear. There is going to be a lot less to import. And there will be less gas to run the gas generation.

And no, the UK does not have a substantial power mix. Its almost totally dependent on gas. Because without gas, the wind doesn’t work, and solar is non-existent in January.

ozspeaksup
October 28, 2022 4:28 am

seeing as sweden wont even tell the rest of the eu what they found on the blown lines cos..too secret to tell anyone? yeah suuure it is
and then they wont allow russia to go look to DO repairs either, russias said they arent in a hurry to do so (understandable)
meanwhile 60 lpg tankers are backed up in eu ports used as storages cos they dont have the ability to process it..oops
why the hell hasnt UK got LPG processing setups?
quoting ussa
maybe UK is TOO RELIANT on the bloody EU feeding em nuke n gas power??
Russia quite reasonably also wanted payment via their banks in Rubles after the SWIFT debacle and the theft of their OS trade funds, they werent asking what the usa is for the LPG by a long shot either.
self inflicted injuries and maybe it will take deaths to get the people to get off their asses and stop this stupidity re renewable fairytales
faint hope after the covid debacle proved even vax deaths didnt get em moving

Campsie Fellow
October 28, 2022 4:36 am

During his leadership campaign, Rishi Sunak declared his support for fracking.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Campsie Fellow
October 28, 2022 9:08 am

Maybe it was just a mini stroke that caused that.

Gerry, England
October 28, 2022 8:14 am

What the moron Pettigrew hasn’t factored in is even though it might be mild across most of the UK as it certainly is in the South-East at the moment, just a few miles away, the continent can be in a deep freeze. At that point Pettigrew, how much spare energy will be coming our way via the interconnectors? With the changed jet stream pattern, it has often been the case that we see the warm air flow from the south while a bit to the east they get the arctic plunge.

ResourceGuy
October 28, 2022 9:12 am

Everyone in the UK and the continent should donate their warm coats to the brave people of Ukraine fighting invasion by tyrants. This is since you don’t have a need for them in your global warming perception bubble.

David Hoopman
October 28, 2022 9:30 am

RE: the northeastern U.S. running short of natural gas “thanks to energy policy incompetence,” I think I might substitute “malfeasance” for “incompetence,” but even that might not be precisely the right word. The appalling truth is that all of these literally life-threatening problems, on both sides of the Atlantic, result from things the political left has actively desired and imposed deliberately and it stretches credulity to believe these people are so stupid they didn’t know what would happen. Eleven days and counting down to midterm elections that will tell us whether most American adults are as finished as I am with being condescended to by people I wouldn’t hire to mow my lawn…

%d bloggers like this: