Tag Archives: El Niño

‘Houston, we have a dumbass problem’

I’m truly sorry about the title, but nothing else really describes the ridiculousness of the pronouncement by the White House aide John Podesta over these two satellite images in a maddeningly idiotic story from the Washington Post. In a Feb. … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate News, El Nino Basics, ENSO, Government idiocy, Politics, snowfall | Tagged , , , , , | 188 Comments

Sea Water Level, Fresh Water Tilted

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Among the recent efforts to explain away the effects of the ongoing “pause” in temperature rise, there’s an interesting paper by Dr. Anny Cazenave et al entitled “The Rate of Sea Level Rise”, hereinafter Cazenave14. … Continue reading

Posted in Sea level | Tagged , , , | 106 Comments

The Power Stroke

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking about the well-known correlation of El Ninos and global temperature. I knew that the Pacific temperatures lead the global temperatures, and the tropics lead the Pacific, but I’d never looked at … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , | 145 Comments

New study claims low solar activity caused “the pause” in global temperature – but AGW will return!

This is on a tip from Dr. Leif Svalgaard, WUWT’s resident solar expert. It was just published in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, and is open access. I found this study’s conclusion a bit amusing, because there are numerous … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Peer review, Science, Solar | Tagged , , | 180 Comments

Another paper blames ENSO for global warming pause, calling it ‘… a major control knob governing Earth’s temperature.’

UPDATE: Chris de Freitas responds to comments with an addendum below – Anthony Readers may recall the recent paper that blamed “the pause” in global temperature on ENSO changes in the Pacific Ocean. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , | 211 Comments

Schellnhuber thinks he can forecast El Niño a year in advance

From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where breakthroughs happen even before they have a proven track record. It appears he was able to predict one event last year in 2012 from the method run in 2011, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Claim: ‘Recent El Niño behavior is largely beyond natural variability’

From the University of Hawaii at Manoa: El Nino unusually active in the late 20th century Spawning droughts, floods, and other weather disturbances world-wide, the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts the daily life of millions of people. During … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Paleoclimatology | Tagged , , , , , , | 105 Comments

The warming ‘plateau’ may extend back even further

Despite recent claims by Justin Gillis in this NYT piece that the plateau in surface temperatures is misunderstood by scientists… …given how much is riding on the scientific forecast, the practitioners of climate science would like to understand exactly what … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 122 Comments

Global Warming theory has failed all tests, so alarmists return to the ‘97% consensus’ hoax

 Guest essay by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, Weatherbell Analytics National Academies of Science defines a scientific theory as “a well-substantiated explanation of the natural world that can incorporate facts, laws, inferences, and tested hypotheses.” Dr Richard Feynman, Cornell Physicist in a … Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , , , | 145 Comments

New El Niño causal pattern discovered

From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST: Climate researchers discover new rhythm for El Niño El Niño wreaks havoc across the globe, shifting weather patterns that spawn droughts in some regions and floods in others. The impacts of this tropical … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , , , | 169 Comments

Updates to and ENSO Observations from the WUWT Ocean Reference Page

Image Credit: Monterey Marine Meteorology Division – HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” In making several updates to the WUWT Ocean Reference Page I observed something in the Sea Surface Temperature animation above, that I’ve … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Oceans, Reference Pages, Salinity, Sea level, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , | 59 Comments

A Different Perspective of the Equatorial Pacific and ENSO Events

by Bob Tisdale It’s difficult to express how enormous El Niño and La Niña events are. Often, when discussing them, I’ll display a map of the tropical Pacific (see example here) and write something to the effect of, the equatorial … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Ocean Heat Content, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 32 Comments

NOAA’s Ever-Changing Definition of La Niña Years

UPDATE: I’ve added two illustrations to the end of the post. At the request of blogger “Kurt in Switzerland”, I plotted a comparison of the new and old versions of the Oceanic NINO Index data and posted it in a … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, NCDC, NOAA | Tagged , , , , , , , | 36 Comments

NOAA corrects ‘State of the Climate’ – offers no credit

NOAA Corrects Their 2012 State of the Climate Report – 2012 Was NOT the Warmest La Niña Year on Record Guest post by Bob Tisdale With as little fanfare as possible, NOAA has corrected their erroneous claim in their 2012 State … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, NCDC, NOAA | Tagged , , , , , , , | 26 Comments

New ebook: The Manmade Global Warming Challenge

Guest post by Bob Tisdale INTRODUCTION Many bloggers are very active in the climate change debate around the globe. In advance of an expected intensification of that debate this year, I’ve written a new essay about the natural warming of … Continue reading

Posted in Book Review, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , , , | 23 Comments

The Tao of El Nino

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I was wandering through the graphics section of the TAO buoy data this evening. I noted that they have an outstanding animation of the most recent sixty months of tropical sea temperatures and surface heights. … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , , | 64 Comments

Coralline Algae and the Case for Natural Climate Change

Guest post by Jim Steele Director Sierra Nevada Field Campus, emeritus, San Francisco State University There was a very revealing 2012 paper demonstrating the power and interconnections of natural ocean oscillations, “Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic … Continue reading

Posted in PDO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 64 Comments

NOAA SOTC Claim that 2012 Was Warmest La Nina Year is Wrong

NOAA’s Definition and Data Contradict Their Claim That 2012 Was The Warmest La Niña Year Guest post by Bob Tisdale In the 2012 State of the Climate Report, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated (my boldface): 2012 ranked as … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Government idiocy, NCDC, NOAA | Tagged , , , , , , , | 18 Comments

ENSO 2013 – Boy or Girl?

We’re Expecting: Will it be a Boy, a Girl, or ENSO-Neutral in 2013? by Bob Tisdale There was lots of interest in the short-lived El Niño conditions in 2012. Recently, they very quickly transformed into the present weak La Niña conditions. … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , , | 77 Comments

Why El Niño and not the AMO?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach On another thread, a poster got me thinking about the common practice of using the El Nino 3.4 Index to remove some of the variability from the historical global average surface temperature record. The theory, … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 154 Comments

Warming Rate in the US Slowed during the Recent Warming Period

The Contiguous U.S. Surface Air Temperature Data Through 2012 – Is the Recent Warming Trend Unusual? Guest post by Bob Tisdale There’s going to be a press conference today with James Hansen of GISS and Tom Karl of NOAA. According to … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 49 Comments

Drought, Hurricanes and Heat Waves – 2012 in Perspective

Guest post by Bob Tisdale Drought, Hurricanes and Heat Waves – Climate Change and Global Warming in the United States – 2012 in Perspective In this video, we’ll examine the exceptional and historic nature of the recent drought in the … Continue reading

Posted in Drought, Global warming, heat wave, hurricanes | Tagged , , , , , , | 12 Comments

NOAA Mixing Their Niños

Guest post by Paul Homewood In their attempts to disguise the fact that 2012 will likely turn out to be one of the colder years this century, NOAA have made the ludicrous, and frankly dishonest, claim that this year will … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 86 Comments

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Myth 3: ENSO Has No Trend and Cannot Contribute to Long-Term Warming

Guest post by Bob Tisdale This is the 3rd part of a series of posts that present myths and misunderstandings about the tropical Pacific processes that herald themselves during El Niño and La Niña events. In the posts, I’m simply … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , , | 86 Comments

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Myth 2: A New Myth – ENSO Balances Out to Zero over the Long Term

Guest post by Bob Tisdale This is the second part in a series of posts about El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They address many of the myths and misunderstandings about the tropical Pacific processes that herald themselves during El Niño and … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , , | 121 Comments

Once again, reality trumps models – Pacific SST’s are flat

Model-Data Comparison: Pacific Ocean Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Guest post by Bob Tisdale I’ll be adding the Pacific Ocean (60S-65N, 120E-80W) sea surface temperature anomalies to my monthly updates. See Figure 1 for the area covered by those coordinates. Why … Continue reading

Posted in Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , | 77 Comments

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Myth 1: El Niño and La Niña Events are Cyclical

Guest post by Bob Tisdale This is the first of a series of posts that address many of the myths and misunderstandings about the tropical Pacific processes that herald themselves during El Niño and La Niña events. Most of the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , , | 142 Comments

Mythbusting Rahmstorf and Foster

Rahmstorf et al (2012) Insist on Prolonging a Myth about El Niño and La Niña Guest post by Bob Tisdale Anthony Watts of WattsUpWithThat forwarded a link to a newly published peer-reviewed paper by Stefan Rahmstorf, Grant Foster (aka Tamino of … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, ENSO | Tagged , , , , , , | 188 Comments

An Inconvenient Truth: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies along Sandy’s Track Haven’t Warmed in 70+ Years

Guest post by Bob Tisdale I was visiting family in the Northeast U.S. when Sandy came ashore, so I was without power for most of last week. Since my return home, I’ve been catching up with all of the nonsense … Continue reading

Posted in hurricanes, Sea Surface Temperature, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , | 61 Comments

Another model failure – seeing a sea of red where there is none

Seeing red just took on a whole new meaning – Anthony Model-Data Comparison – Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies – November 1981 through September 2012 Guest post by Bob Tisdale This is not the monthly sea surface temperature update. See the post … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , , | 53 Comments

Tisdale asks: Hey, Where’d The El Niño Go?

Guest post by Bob Tisdale This post will serve as the mid-September 2012 sea surface temperature anomaly update. Sea surface temperature anomalies for the NINO3.4 region of the eastern equatorial Pacific are a commonly used index for the strength, frequency … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , | 94 Comments

Tisdale: The Warming of the Global Oceans – Are Manmade Greenhouse Gases Important or Impotent?

Note: this post was two weeks in the making, and well worth your time to read – Anthony Guest post by Bob Tisdale Global sea surface temperatures have warmed over the past 30 years, but there is no evidence the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Oceans, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , | 158 Comments

New easy to use reference book for El Niño and global warming

I think readers will appreciate the point by point style that this book is written in. It enables you to zero in on argument rebuttals with graphs and data. Highly recommended – Anthony Also see Roger Pielke Sr.’s Announcement and … Continue reading

Posted in Book Review, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , | 85 Comments

Tisdale on the problems with ENSO models

Guilyardi et al (2009) “Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges” Guest post by Bob Tisdale The preliminary Reynolds OI.v2 sea surface temperature data for July 2012 won’t be available until next Monday July 30th, and there … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 27 Comments

More modeling madness: increased temperature ‘may’ cause more violent thunderstorms – but other studies show what they missed

From Tel Aviv University, another science press release with “could and may” qualifiers:  Climate Change May Lead to Fewer — But More Violent — Thunderstorms Number of flash floods and forest fires could increase with temperature, says TAU researcher Researchers … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Land use land cover change, Modeling, modification, thunderstorms, UHI, Weather | Tagged , , , , , | 62 Comments