From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog
Cliff Mass
The media is going wild about the potential for a SUPER El Nino developing this year.
An El Niño of potentially unequaled strength with profound consequences for humanity.
El Nino 101
As a reminder, El Niño and its close counterpart, La Niña, are associated with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, specifically in the area known as the Niño 3.4 region (see map below).
Why do we care about the surface temperatures of the central tropical Pacific?
Because it reveals the state of an important natural atmospheric/ocean oscillation: ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, in which warm ocean surface water sloshed back and forth over 4-7 year periods (see below).
The warm water enhances cumulus and thunderstorm activity above, which in turn influences the weather of the entire planet (see below).
Some terminology:
A weak El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area .5-1 °C above normal
A moderate El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area 1-1.5 °C above normal
A strong El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area 1.5-2 °C above normal
A super El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area exceeding 2°C above normal
Predicting El Niño is important because it has a significant impact on the meteorology of the U.S. West Coast and offers the only reliable source of forecasting skill for extended period predictions.
There is little correlation between El Niño and our summer weather, but El Niño winters in the Northwest tend to be warmer than normal with lesser snowfal.
There is a problem we face right now in predicting the El Niño situation next winter: the El Niño Spring Forecast Barrier.
A reason why the media needs to be very careful about over hyping things right now.
It turns out that El Niño forecasts made in late winter and spring are often unskillful, while predictions made after July are much better.
Furthermore, statistical prediction models are generally less skillful than dynamical models that actually simulate ocean and atmospheric conditions (see below).
With all that said, what do the latest El Niño forecasts indicate? Is there an intense SUPER El Niño in our future? The predictions are below for a wide range of models.
All models indicate that La Niña (cooler than normal tropical temperatures) will soon be over.
The statistical models (green lines) are predicting a weak El Niño by this fall, while the more skillful dynamical models are going for a weak to moderate El Niño. Few are predicting a Super El Niño.
There is one modeling system that is going for a “Super” El Nino, the European Center’s SEAS5 model (below). It is the source of many of the breathless headlines in the media.
The bottom line?
We are certainly moving towards El Niño conditions, but I would be careful about assuming that the Super El Niño prediction of the European Center is correct, due to the spring forecast barrier and the larger differences between other modeling system forecasts.
As long as it brings snow and rain to the desert southwesst, I am good with that!
I think your area is due for some rain in the near future.
I see a mysterious dark stranger wearing a trench coat and fedora arriving to help in a dire situation, only to vanish without a trace.
So I asked Google AI: When were previous strong el ninos
_______________________________________________
According to wikipedia
2023–2024
2015–2016
1997–1998
1982–1983
According to NOAA & NCEI
2023–2024
2015–2016
2009–2010
1997–1998
1982–1983
________________________________________________
Looks like strong el ninos occur on average 10 to 14 years apart. Too soon since 2024
Cliff Mass is right to question hype about the coming El Niño; super or not, it is basically on time.
Two El Niños at or just after the top of the cycle #25 would be somewhat analogous to the solar cycle #20 period, with it’s two large SST spikes and El Niños. The SC#20 second SST spike was slightly higher than the first. It might happen again (naturally) in SC#25 (let the howling begin).
The correlogram below shows the climate changes after equatorial ocean heat content changes:
wheres OUR ENSO METER got to ?
I keep asking too, but in the meantime I have been using this :- https://klimata.org/el-ninometer-real-time-enso-index/?i=2
From the article: “A reason why the media needs to be very careful about over hyping things right now.”
The Media can’t help themselves. They are compelled to blow everything out of proportion in furtherance of their Climate Alarmist agenda.
The media wants clicks and views to direct more advertising revenue to themselves. That is all they want as its all about the bottom line. Don’t fool yourself otherwise.
Remember, all advertisers don’t really care what group any message actually is directed at as long as it’s being seen by a large group.
After all, MSNBC advertises the same soap that Fox does.
That’s theoretically true,
but whenever we talk about Agenda, those rules don’t apply.
In fact legacy media ruined itself substantially by not following their standard approach to generate clicks and revenue for large groups – instead they pissed them off with propaganda,patronizing, fearporn and straight out lies .
They said “screw the clicks, we rather promote AGW, Gender, MRNA etc ” instead of doing their standard opportunism.
They even ignored the Epstein case since 2015 ( Amy Rohbach) as much as they could for years (until they were able to connect it with Trump) instead of making billions with it.
Even corporations will rather go into selfdestruction and lose billions by promoting woke stuff and DEI instead of going the standard way.
Advertiser and MSM went from advertising to politics / propaganda.
Articles on the web today state that Democrats state that DEI is al about the true American values, and that DEI is incorporated in the US Constitution, so anything that contravenes DEI is unconstitutuional.
“All men (human beings/people) are created equal”
Is not DEI. DEI is about compartmentalization for control.
“If it bleeds it leads”
While the propaganda aspect is a valid conjecture, it is more about hyperbole to generate ad clicks.
A comment about the last figure. A dynamic model that does reasonably well out 3 months, but is lousy out 6 months, should not be trusted at all or even reported out 8 months.
I wondered where all of that noise was coming from on YouTube etc. At least it helps me filter out news sources and alarmist items at a faster rate.
The chart with the red lines diverging claims anomalies
relative to ERA5 1981 – 2010 climatology.
NOAA says: We recommend using the current 1991–2020 release unless you have a specific use case for the older versions.
I’m just making an observation, implying nothing.
The tectonic activity on the Pacific ocean floor – and there is a lot of it – influences El Nino. How else could that deep water get that warm?
Earth’s crust is ripping apart deep beneath the Pacific Northwest – earth
With temperatures of at least 700C it must have some influence, right? I’m guessing none of that is in the models…
I suggest you read about the Pacific Warm Pool, Trade Winds, and the west-to-east sloshing of the warm water back toward South America; a Kelvin wave.
I suggest you open that mind
I suggest you get relevant.
I was and you parrot
As far as I know, the very best way to heat water, is from below. ! 😉
While there is still an increase in absorbed solar energy which can heat water from above, especially in the tropics…
… there is also currently a lot of simmering volcanic activity in the Tonga / West Pacific area.
Sunlight penetrates to a depth of about 1,000 meters in clear open ocean water, but significant light is rarely found beyond 200 meters. This upper level of the ocean is known as the euphotic zone, where sunlight can penetrate and support vibrant colors.
See:
The wavelengths of visible light range from approximately 380 nanometers (violet) to about 700 nanometers (red). Thus, a form of energy known as electromagnetic radiation enters the ocean massively.
Climate Caterwaulers Inc. could sure use a super El Nino about now, so that they can claim that it’s from all that carbon “supercharging” the atmosphere, in order to shore up their collapsing climate ideology.
ENSO is a completely natural occurrence.There is no evidence to show any connection with human activity. Anyone who says otherwise does not know what they are talking about.
Yabut, man made “carbon” has magic powers doncha know.
I think I have said it before….
The fact that the climate worriers get so super-hyped about El Nino events, which are totally natural and cause a heat spike in the atmosphere, often followed by a step change as warm warmer transfers to connected ocean basins…(as shown by Bob Tisdale)
… indicates that they know that CO2 has absolutely nothing to do with global temperatures.
typo… “a step change as warm warmer transfers “
… should say … “a step change as warm water transfers “
How come I never heard of El Nino and La Nina until recent years? Is it me or was it just wasn’t talked about much until the past few decades? And when they mix it up do they produce a Bambina? 🙂
The first recorded instance of “El Niño” was in 1578. Years ago, I found a story about El Niño being responsible for the massive die-off of marine life, including dead fish, along the coast of Peru, particularly in Callao, where the phenomenon caused algal blooms that depleted oxygen and produced toxins. This led to the area being nicknamed the “Callao Painter” due to the discoloring of surfaces from decaying marine organisms.
El Niño has only become a click-bait thing since activists realized the return of the warm surface water (from the Pacific Warm Pool) influenced weather and raised temperature.
Both events are monitored and reported quite a bit in the US Southwest, as an El Nino tends to lead to increased winter rain. Their effect in the US Northeast, while noticeable, isn’t as impressive, so it isn’t reported as much.
Will concerns about a Super El Niño affect voter turnout in the November 2026 mid-terms?
It won’t affect the dead Democrats mail-in voting tendencies.
Thanks for a little perspective. Has the SEAS5 model done well in the past? AI says no until the Spring barrier is passed. Then most models are good.
Thanks Cliff.
I thought it was those magical CO2 molecules that are driving the warming trend, not the natural El-Nino’s phases that are driving the warming, which is it……..
Snicker….
Every single so-called “record surface temperature” has been set at or around the time of the peak in an El Nino event.
(except this last March in central USA that was a strange weather event, offset by a very cold patch over northern Canada.)
But it is worse than they thought!