suntrace

A new method for predicting speed and motion of solar flares

A Montana State University physicist who has developed a new model that predicts the speed of solar plasma during solar flares, likening it to the path traveled by a thrown baseball, will present his findings at the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society conference being held this week in Boulder, Colorado. Sean Brannon,…

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Solar Cycle Update – spotless

So Constant And Unspotted Didst Thou Seem1 Guest essay by David Archibald The image of the Sun today is spotless. This is the first spotless day of the 24-25 solar minimum. Not a great deal can be read from that. According to Wilson, for cycles 9-14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months,…

estimated variance TSI steinhilber 2009 closeup

Steinhilber 2009

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Someone recommended that I look at the Steinhilber 2009 paper. I did. The data is here. My first-cut graphs are below. Discuss. For the reasons I talked about in my previous post, I gotta run. Best wishes to all, I’m outta here … w.

CEEMD SOI and nino3.4

CEEMD and Sunspots

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been investigating the use of the “complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition” (CEEMD) analysis method, which I discussed in a previous post entitled Noise-Assisted Data Analysis. One of the big insights leading to modern signal analysis was the brilliant idea of Joseph Fourier. He realized that any given waveform can…

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Solar Update March 2016

Guest essay by David Archibald There are a couple of interesting features of the state of the Sun at the moment. Firstly the Oulu Neutron Count has had a rapid reversal in the last few months: Figure 1: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2016 The neutron count is looking like the rapid reversal during Solar…