Extended Forecasts are Not Reliable

Reposted from the Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog We are constantly exposed to extended forecasts in the media and online, with predictions extending through the next month and more. Can you rely on such predictions?    Are they really worth paying attention to? Quite honestly, probably not–and if you do consider them, do so with…

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Using artificial intelligence to better predict severe weather

Researchers create AI algorithm to detect cloud formations that lead to storms Penn State When forecasting weather, meteorologists use a number of models and data sources to track shapes and movements of clouds that could indicate severe storms. However, with increasingly expanding weather data sets and looming deadlines, it is nearly impossible for them to…

NOAA predicts near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

El Nino and warmer-than-average Atlantic help shape this season’s intensity From NOAA press release: NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal…

Will 5G Undermine Weather Prediction?

Reposted from Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog   HT/RonPE Saturday, May 18, 2019 There have been a number of media stories this week about a major threat to weather prediction:  the sale of electromagnetic spectrum for new 5G cellphone service.   The problem is that some of the wavelengths being auctioned off for 5G are critical…

2019 Hurricane season forecast: below average

Dr. Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University writes on Twitter: Seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU predicts slightly below-average season: 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes & 2 major (Cat 3+, >=111 mph) hurricanes. Primary reason for slightly below-avg forecast is anticipated continuation of weak #ElNino. We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have…

The Genius of Crowd Weather Forecasting

Reposted from The Cliff Mass Weather and Forecasting Blog Last quarter I taught Atmospheric Sciences 101 and as a fun extra-credit activity students had the opportunity to participate in a forecasting competition in which they predicted temperatures and probability of precipitation at Sea-Tac Airport.   The National Weather Service forecast is scored as well to provide…

Claim: Climate changes make some aspects of weather forecasting increasingly difficult

Stockholm University The ongoing climate changes make it increasingly difficult to predict certain aspects of weather, according to a new study from Stockholm University. The study, focusing on weather forecasts in the northern hemisphere spanning 3- 10 days ahead, concludes that the greatest uncertainty increase will be regarding summer downfalls, of critical importance when it…

The GWPF 2019 Temperature Prediction Competition

Benny Peiser writes: It would be great if you would encourage your readers to participate in our 2019 Global Temperature Prediction Competition. Here the the description from The GWPF website Date: 08/02/19 Global Warming Policy Forum With GWPF readers having trounced the Met Office at predicting temperatures for 2018, it will very interesting to see…

Forecast suggests Earth’s warmest period on record

From the good ol’ UEA  <—- I suggest you check out link~ctm  Public Release: 6-Feb-2019 Forecast suggests Earth’s warmest period on record University of East Anglia Temperature figures table  Credit: Met Office The forecast for the global average surface temperature for the five-year period to 2023 is predicted to be near or above 1.0 °C…

NO EVIDENCE’: Experts Continue To Debunk WaPo’s Claim About The Shutdown And Weather Forecasts

From The Daily Caller Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor There’s no evidence the government shutdown is making weather forecasts less accurate, according to experts. The Washington Post reported the shutdown has impacted the accuracy of NOAA’s flagship weather model. However, NOAA and other meteorologists who fact-checked the claim found no evidence to back it up.…