This image show radar-indicated swaths of hail from the May 20, 2013 Oklahoma-Moore tornado in the left panel, and, in the right panel, swaths of hail predicted by the ensemble computer forecasts.
CREDIT University of Oklahoma

New tools for predicting severe hail storms

While climate models tend to be open-ended and impossible to verify for the future they predict until the future becomes the measured present, weather models can and have been verified, and they keep getting better. Here is one such example. NSF-supported research at the University of Oklahoma uses supercomputers and simulations to improve storm forecasts…

StatForecastingMills

A new climate war brewing: forecasting vs. modeling

A new paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation explains how statistical forecasting methods can provide an important contrast to climate model-based predictions of future global warming. The repeated failures of economic models to generate accurate predictions has taught many economists a healthy scepticism about the ability of their own models, regardless of…

clip_image004.jpg

Once Again El Nino Didn’t Do What Was Forecast. Why?

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball Mark Albright, who reportedly lost his job as Oregon State Climatologist in 2003 apparently because of his views on global warming, drew attention to the failed El Nino based forecast for Oregon. Here is the official prediction. Most of the state remains in drought conditions, and climatologists expect a strong…

Radiosonde observations from RV Mirai over the ice-free Arctic Ocean. CREDIT Jun Inoue

Filling in the sparse Arctic weather data

From RESEARCH ORGANIZATION OF INFORMATION AND SYSTEMS Optimized arctic observations for improving weather forecast in the northern sea route The current reduction in Arctic sea-ice extent causes unpredictable weather phenomena in the Arctic Ocean (strong winds, high waves, and rapid sea-ice movement associated with cyclones) also over the mid-latitudes (heat waves, severe winters, etc.). With…

William-of-Ockham-razor-quote

Is climate forecasting immune from Occam’s razor?

Guest essay by Kesten Green Several authors have argued that the hypothesis of dangerous manmade global warming fails the test of Occam’s razor because the simple hypothesis of natural variation fits the data with fewer assumptions. As Harold Jeffreys noted, “simpler laws have the greater prior probability”. But are forecasts of dangerous warming immune from…

The figure depicts the upper ocean warming (in red color) observed over the warm rings during the intensification of Isaac. CREDIT Benjamin Jaimes

Models need to include ocean upwelling-downwelling responses to improve hurricane forecasts

From the UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI ROSENSTIEL SCHOOL OF MARINE & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE Study offers new insights on hurricane intensity, pollution transport Researchers study currents that fuel hurricanes and transport pollutants to coastal beaches MIAMI – As tropical storm Isaac was gaining momentum toward the Mississippi River in August 2012, University of Miami (UM) researchers were…