global-warming-forecasts-mckee

Reality-based climate forecasting

Continuing to focus on carbon dioxide as the driving force will just bring more bogus predictions Guest essay by Paul Driessen These days, even shipwreck museums showcase evidence of climate change. After diving recently among Key West’s fabled ship-destroying barrier reefs, I immersed myself in exhibits from the Nuestra Senora de Atocha, the fabled Spanish…

lightning-flash

How lightning strikes can improve storm forecasts

From the UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON Humans have always been frightened and fascinated by lightning. This month, NASA is scheduled to launch a new satellite that will provide the first nonstop, high-tech eye on lightning over the North American section of the planet. University of Washington researchers have been tracking global lightning from the ground for more…

This image show radar-indicated swaths of hail from the May 20, 2013 Oklahoma-Moore tornado in the left panel, and, in the right panel, swaths of hail predicted by the ensemble computer forecasts.
CREDIT University of Oklahoma

New tools for predicting severe hail storms

While climate models tend to be open-ended and impossible to verify for the future they predict until the future becomes the measured present, weather models can and have been verified, and they keep getting better. Here is one such example. NSF-supported research at the University of Oklahoma uses supercomputers and simulations to improve storm forecasts…

StatForecastingMills

A new climate war brewing: forecasting vs. modeling

A new paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation explains how statistical forecasting methods can provide an important contrast to climate model-based predictions of future global warming. The repeated failures of economic models to generate accurate predictions has taught many economists a healthy scepticism about the ability of their own models, regardless of…