Climate Craziness of the Week: Oh noes! Moths affected by ‘hidden’ factors of climate change

From the University of Michigan  and the department of Mothra studies, comes this big let down. Even though moths are supposedly affected by climate change, “90 percent of them were either stable or increasing” while the climate where they lived warmed. But wait! Moth scientists know there MUST be an effect, so in contradiction to their observations, the moth scientists claim the climate change effects are now apparently “hidden”. Hopefully, those moths thriving under global warming doesn’t lead to giant moths.

Mothra - courtesy Wikizilla

Mothra – also fictitious, like “hidden” climate effects, courtesy Wikizilla

Moth study suggests hidden climate change impacts

ANN ARBOR—A 32-year study of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland suggests that scientists may be underestimating the impacts of climate change on animals and plants because much of the harm is hidden from view.

The study analyzed populations of 80 moth species and found that 90 percent of them were either stable or increasing throughout the study period, from 1978 to 2009. During that time, average annual temperatures at the study site rose 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and winter precipitation increased as well.

 

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Posted in Bad science, Climate Craziness of the Week | Tagged , , | 147 Comments

Ditto, Tom – ‘here are some things I believe’

Tom Nelson writes in a Response to Don Cheadle, some things I thought worth repeating here, because it succinctly sums up the position of many climate skeptics.
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(This post was written to respond to Don’s Twitter question here)

Don, off the top of my head, here are some things I believe:

 

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Posted in Global warming, Opinion | 114 Comments

Quote of the week – beyond ‘noble cause corruption’

qotw_popcornA lot of popcorn is being consumed these days watching the wailing of the Lewandowsky lemming team as they furiously throw themselves over cyber-cliffs in support of a retracted paper that was doomed from the start by it’s own ethics violations: diagnosing people in absentia as having mental disorders, then using a science journal as a bully pulpit to name and shame those people.

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Posted in Climate ugliness, Noble Cause Corruption, Quote of the Week, Stephan Lewandowsky | Tagged , , , , , , | 77 Comments

A quorum of drama queens at Polar Bears International?

Dr. Susan Crockford, Zoologist, of www.polarbearscience.com advises us of this:

 “We are now the polar bear” says Mann today (below) [a few weeks ago it was Patricia Romero Lankao of the federally financed National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado saying "The polar bear is us" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/24/climate-change-dangers_n_5019412.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular]

Scientists Speak Out: The New IPCC Report

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a U.N. group, warns that man-made climate change is already causing destruction around the globe. And it will only get worse unless we act quickly.

Leading climate and polar bear scientists share their thoughts on the report and the path forward:

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Posted in Polarbeargate, Post-normal science | 128 Comments

Major Errors Apparent in Climate Model Evaporation Estimates

Guest essay by Richard J. Petschauer, Senior Member IEEE

The physics of evaporation has complications related to what happens at the water / air interface such as wind speed and wave action. However if these factors remain constant, how evaporation changes with temperature and humidity can be estimated with well-known equations based on how water vapor pressure varies with temperature. For example, at a typical ocean temperature of 17 C, it should increase about 6.5% / C if the water vapor increases to maintain relative humidity, that the climate models indicate. If the surface air tracks the water within ± 2 C, the rate varies from 6.2% to 6.9% / C. Data over oceans by Wentz et, al (2007) report values of about 6% / C.

But the complex computer climate models show averages of only about 2.5% / C. There are no claims of reduced wind speeds or wave action or increased relative humidity to explain this. However many papers on the subject claim that the available energy is limiting evaporation in these models. But physics theory tells us that the latent energy for evaporation comes from the temperature of the water itself. The latent heat leaving the surface cools it and deposits heat in the atmosphere, part of which escapes to outer space. This combination causes negative feedback. The reduced net energy from increased CO2 still warms the surface, but this energy can’t be separated from what aids the final increased evaporation. A 6% / C increase applies to the water after the negative feedback is complete. Do the climate models ignore this cooling and feedback process?

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Posted in Modeling | 92 Comments

JPL Claim: Asian Pollution makes US Storms Worse

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

A new study from NASA’s JPL claims Asian air pollution causes worse storms in North America, especially during winter.

beijing_smog_2[1]

Satellite image showing smog over Bejing and Tianjin China. Image: NASA

According to abstract, the study used a global climate-aerosol model to compare current conditions with modelled pre-industrial conditions.

Lead author Yuan Wang, from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology, said: “The effects are quite dramatic. The pollution results in thicker and taller clouds and heavier precipitation.”

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Posted in Aerosols | 47 Comments

IPCC WGIII: throwing the greens under the bus

While the latest IPCC working group III summary report has its share of gloom and doom and ridiculous edicts, it does have one redeeming quality as Josh points out.

 

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Posted in Fracking, IPCC, nuclear power, Satire | 152 Comments

Another ‘fish story’ about ocean acidification where researchers fool themselves into thinking they are actually doing science

image

Coral Reef at Dobu Island, Milne Bay, PNG, with carbon dioxide bubbling through it (photo: Bob Halstead)

Readers may recall this previous fish story: CO2 increases to make drunken clownfish

Well, Danielle Dixon and Philip Munday are at it again.  This PR claim from the Georgia Institute of Technology  Fish from acidic ocean waters less able to smell predators smells fishy to me. Just ask any salt-water aquariaist how hard it is to simulate the ocean in a fish tank and keep the fish from being stressed.

The failure of this claim is clear when you watch the video below, showing natural CO2 bubbles coming off the sea floor in Milne Bay, in Papua New Guinea. They use this as the “control” for the experiment, according to the caption, when they should be using a normal reef and doing the experiments in situ. Instead, they transport these fish back to the the mobile lab (on a boat), perform experiments, and assume there is no difference in the environment that may contribute to behavioral differences. They apparently don’t stop to consider that BOTH groups of fish in the mobile lab might be stressed the same way. Worse, there’s no mention of transporting fish caught at a non-bubbling reef back to the mobile lab so that they can perform the same test on them and compare differences if any. Instead they say:  “The results do show that what Dixson and colleagues found in the lab matches with what is seen in the field.”

They simply ignored the most obvious control group test and did no actual in situ experiment.

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Posted in Bad science, Ocean acidification | 66 Comments

Seattle’s climate instantly cools 1.5 degrees

This is interesting, and of course it goes hand-in-hand with what I have been saying for years.

Scott Sistek, of KOMO News/Weather reports:

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For several years the thermometer at SeaTac airport has been reporting temperatures 1-3 degrees above surrounding areas.

Instead, it seems the thermometer at Sea-Tac is finally back on track, reporting temperatures more realistic with respect to other nearby thermometers. It’s been a long suspicion among some local meteorologists that the thermometer at the airport been running a bit warm over the past few years, frequently reporting temperatures 1-3 degrees warmer than surrounding sites. (Both UW professor Cliff Mass and I have done blogs on this apparent warming in the past.)

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Posted in Climate data, GHCN, records, Weather, Weather_stations | 113 Comments

2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events

Comparisons are still being made of the 1997/98 El Niño with the El Niño forming this year. So I thought we should compare the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for this year, in two NINO regions, with those during 1997 for the 1997/98 El Niño and 1982 for the 1982/83 El Niño. The 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events were the two strongest single-season events of the late 20th Century. (The 1986/87/88 El Niño wasn’t as strong as the 1982/83 El Niño in terms of peak sea surface temperature anomalies, but the 1986/87/88 event remained an El Niño for more than one year, so it was likely comparable to the 1982/83 El Niño if duration is taken into account.)

First, the NINO3.4 region, see Figure 1. The NINO3.4 region is bordered by the coordinates of 5S-5N, 170W-120W. See the illustration here for the location. It captures the sea surface temperature anomalies of the east-central equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region are a commonly used index for the strength, timing and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. And as you can see, the weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies still have not reached the +0.5 deg C threshold of El Niño conditions. It’s still a little early. They are presently at +0.31 Deg C compared to the reference years of 1971-2000.

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 61 Comments

Exploiting Human Misery and Distorting the Science: An environmentalist’s critique of “Years of Living Dangerously”

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University

In “Years of Living Dangerously” Hollywood’s Don Cheadle partners with Christian climate scientist Katharine Heyhoe to convince fellow Christians that they should trust the climate scientists who blame the misery brought by a Texas drought on rising CO2. Indeed in times of natural climate calamities, people suffer and become insecure as they confront nature’s awesome power.

Unfortunately that is when charlatans exploit their misery, making it truly a time of living dangerously. Quick interviews with ranchers who still believe the drought was caused naturally or by God was a feeble attempt to suggest it is religion that has blinded ranchers to the purported “science” of catastrophic climate change. Instead the documentary evoked memories of the 1956 movie “The Rainmaker.” Rancher Noah Curry tells Burt Lancaster (who is playing the Bill Starbuck the rainmaker), “We don’t believe in rainmakers!” Lancaster snaps back, “What do you believe in mistah? Dyin’ cattle?” Cheadle and Heyhoe were employing the age old rainmaker’s trick of exploiting natural catastrophes and human misery. I have documented similar ploys here, here, here, here and here.   Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism | 81 Comments

Weekly Climate and Energy news Roundup

SEPP_header5
The Week That Was: 2014-04-12 (April 12, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived. Niccolo Machiavelli [H/t Tim Ball] Number of the Week: $97,000 annual salary, entry level with undergraduate degree

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THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)   Continue reading

Posted in Climate News Roundup | 23 Comments

Cosmic Rays, Sunspots, and Beryllium

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

In investigations of the past history of cosmic rays, the deposition rates (flux rates) of the beryllium isotope 10Be are often used as a proxy for the amount of cosmic rays. This is because 10Be is produced, inter alia, by cosmic rays in the atmosphere. Being a congenitally inquisitive type of fellow, I thought I’d look to see just how good a proxy 10Be might be for solar activity. Now most folks would likely do a search of the literature first, to find out what is currently known about the subject.

I don’t like doing that. Oh, the literature search is important, don’t get me wrong … but I postpone it as long as I possibly can. You see, I don’t want to be mesmerized by what is claimed to be already known. I want to look whatever it is with a fresh eye, what the Buddhists call “Beginner’s Mind”, unencumbered by decades of claims and counter-claims. In short, what I do when faced with a new field is to go find some data and analyze it. After I’ve found out what I can from the dataset, and only then, do I search the literature to find out what other folks might believe. Yes, it costs me sometimes … but usually it allows me to find things that other folks have overlooked.

In this case, I found a gem of a dataset. Here is the author’s summary:

Annually-resolved polar ice core 10Be records spanning the Neutron Monitor era

Abstract: Annually-resolved 10Be concentrations, stable water isotope ratios and accumulation rate data from the DSS site on Law Dome, East Antarctica (spanning 1936-2009) and the Das2 site, south-east Greenland (1936-2002).

The only thing better than data is recent data, because it is more likely to be accurate, and here we have seven decades of recent 10Be deposition rates (fluxes). So, without fanfare, here’s the data in question

10be flux rates greenland antarcticaFigure 1. 10Be flux rates from Law Dome in Antarctica and from Southeast Greenland. Bottom panel shows the annual average sunspot count.

So … what’s not to like about these records? Well … lots of things.

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Posted in Climate News, Cosmic rays | Tagged , , , , | 241 Comments

Climate Schlock: Joe Romm goes for the Herb Tarleck pitch

herb-tarlek[1]Being a broadcaster, one of my favorite TV shows ever was WKRP in Cincinnati. Readers may recall some of the highest forms of stereotypical comedy that came from the sales manager, Herb Tarleck, seen at right, who had the schtick of a used car salesman down pat.

So, when I saw this latest headline sales pitch from Joe Romm over at Climate Progress, with the key words “act now” and “super cheap”  I couldn’t help but think of Joe Romm channeling Herb Tarleck.

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Posted in Alarmism, Satire | 72 Comments

Earth to Lovejoy: 0.9 C° in a century is not ‘huge’

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Pseudo-science by press release has become the norm among the Forces of Darkness. With as much fanfare as McGill University could muster, the recent paper by Professor Lovejoy was promoted via a typically head-banging instance of the genre.

The gushingly flatulent halation of the university PR-wallahs is typical of the verbal diarrhea habitual among practitioners of the Dark Arts. The ipsissima verba of Lovejoy himself in the press release are of particular interest.

Here is what he is quoted as saying: Continue reading

Posted in 99% certainty, Alarmism, Bad science, Climate data | 82 Comments

DIY Climate Psychology Lewpaper Generator

Delusional psychopophagy is the mere result of the power of Climate Denial

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

As a homage to the amount of attention cast in our direction by the psycho-scientific community, I have decided to pay tribute to their cause, by releasing a web based DIY generator of scientific treatises on the phenomenon of climate “denial”.

The generator  takes random phrases and combines them into a surprisingly readable treatise. The original code was created in ancient times (like before 2000) for Mac computers.

The following is an example of this random artificial intelligence at work:

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Posted in Curious things, Fun_stuff | 121 Comments

Your chance to predict future El Niño headlines

Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying:

I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible.

So, I thought it might be time to do some forecasting of our own. First, some basics,

From Tisdales recent article, we have this graph showing another model vs. reality divergence.

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Posted in ENSO, Forecasting, Fun_stuff | 209 Comments

A Modtran Mystery

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I’ve been messing about with the “Modtran” online calculator for atmospheric absorption. It’s called “Modtran” because it is a MODerate resolution program to calculate atmospheric infrared absorption written in ForTRAN, which calculates the result for each 1 cm-1 wide band of the wavenumber across the spectrum. Not quite a “line-by-line” calculation, but close. Here’s a sample of the input page:

modtran ir in the atmosphereFigure 1. User input page for the Modtran online calculation for infrared absorption. Left side is user input. Upper right graph shows absorption as a function of frequency. The lower right graph shows the GHG concentrations, pressure, and temperature, as a function of altitude. See here for an overview of the model. Click to enlarge

This shows the situation during the subarctic summer, with no clouds or rain.

Along the way, I ran into a curious mystery, one for which I have no answer.

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Posted in Carbon dioxide, James Hansen, Radiation | Tagged , , , | 154 Comments