## HARRIS and KHANDEKAR: Blaming the developed world for the forces of nature

By Tom Harris and Madhav Khandekar

Originally published in The Washington Times Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Bad science puts rich nations on the hook for trillions in climate liabilities

Delegates at the recent U.N. climate conference in Warsaw decided that \$1 billion a day, the amount currently being spent across the world on “climate finance”, is not enough. Far greater funding is needed to save the world from what U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon calls the “greatest threat facing humanity.” That climate science is highly immature and global warming actually stopped 17 years ago was never mentioned.

Here’s what our representatives just agreed to:

## Cowtan & Way and signs of cooling

Guest essay by Jan Zeman

To err is human, for messing up consistently one needs a computer. -New proverbs

Because there was a lot of publicity around the Cowtan and Way 2013 paper I decided to look into the issue.

I was not much interested in their methods (since I’m not much interested in methods of data torture, besides they have already been scrutinized by much more knowledgeable people), but rather in the following questions:

1. Where did they obtain data such data that would support a “two and a half times greater” rise of global temperature anomaly “trends starting in 1997 or 1998” in their “hybrid global reconstruction” when compared to HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly data-set?
2. What such data really show and whether such data agree with other data or not?

Because the main rationale of their analysis seems to me being that there is some missing coverage for the HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly dataset “with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa” and that it is the alleged reason why the HadCRUT4 data-set is purportedly biased, first what I have looked for was whether there actually are other data covering the regions and what trends one can find there.

Tropics

For starter let’s see a comparison of HadCRUT4 and satellite lower troposphere data for tropics: Continue reading

Posted in Cowtan & Way, Global cooling | 89 Comments

## Private launch of geostationary satellite a ‘game-changer’

NASA no longer has a monopoly on US geosynchronous orbit launches

A SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 rocket launches the SES-8 commercial communications satellite into orbit from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida on Dec. 3, 2013. The mission is SpaceX’s first commercial satellite launch into a geostationary transfer orbit

More pictures follow. From Space.com:

The private spaceflight company SpaceX launched a critical commercial satellite mission from Florida Tuesday after two delays due to technical glitches.

Posted in Space, Technology | | 38 Comments

## UAH Global temperature, down slightly, “the pause” continues

UAH v5.6 Global Temperature Update for Nov. 2013: +0.19 deg. C

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2013 is +0.19 deg. C, down from +0.29 deg. C in October (click for full size version):

Posted in Climate data | | 98 Comments

## 18 Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest – Hansen’s alarmism on parade

According to the paid propagandist Joe Romm at Climate Progress: Humanity is choosing to destroy a livable climate, warn 18 of the world’s leading climate experts in a new study.

Tom Nelson asks on Twitter: Since when are these 18 some of the world’s leading climate experts?

Of course, there’s a call for a carbon tax to go along with that warning.

Economic efficiency would be improved by a rising carbon fee.

A rising carbon fee is the sine qua non for fossil fuel phase out, but
not enough by itself.

Absolute madness. What alternate reality do these 18 people live in? Or maybe it is simply that none of them have ever held a job that didn’t depend on tax revenue?

They are clamoring not only for a carbon tax, but also for green technology. But, real world data they cite suggests they are living in a dream world:  Continue reading

Posted in carbon tax, Climate News, James Hansen | | 56 Comments

## Who are you going to believe, my B-44 or your lyin eyes?

NCDC needs to incorporate information into their metadata database from four sources that they currently ignore and/or keep from the public.

Guest essay by John Slayton

Southern California’s San Gabriel Mountains have long been a natural habitat for scientists.  Some of their activities are well known–the observatory on Mt. Wilson and Michelson’s measurement of the speed of light come readily to mind.  But there are others. One was the touristy Thaddeus Lowe, who built an electric railway into the mountains to an observatory at Echo Peak, near another peak which now bears his name, Mt. Lowe.  Mr. Lowe’s enterprise soon changed hands, but years later, from 1926 to 1936, there was a COOP weather station on Mt. Lowe.

I hike around there from time to time, and I got curious a while back about the exact location of that station.  So I consulted NOAA’S MMS site to get a satellite view of the terrain.  But the terrain that came up was very strange.  Turned out that the coordinates given were, as I remember, about a hundred miles to the east, in the direction of Twenty-Nine Palms.  I e-mailed NOAA, and they promptly corrected the error.  We residents of Los Angeles County are happy to have our mountain back.  And NOAA thereby demonstrated a willingness to listen to laymen and correct mistakes.

## WG1 co-chair Thomas Stocker abandons IPCC principles

Thomas Stocker, the co-chair of IPCC WG1, has been discussed previously on this blog.

On 26th November he gave a talk at Imperial College on the messages from the AR5 WG1 report. The headline of the write-up is
“Act now to limit climate change says climate expert at Grantham Annual Lecture”
and it ends with:

“Professor Stocker finished his talk with the message that the international community has to act now and that any further delay in reducing emissions could close the door on limiting global mean warming, and consequent impacts, permanently”

Perhaps he needs to be reminded of the principles of the IPCC: Continue reading

## Yes, but weren’t climate pledge goals always out of reach?

Continuing with pledge pathways to 2030 could push climate goals out of reach

Current pledges for greenhouse gas emission reductions are inadequate and will further increase the challenge to reach internationally agreed climate targets, according to new research from a global consortium of 13 international research teams coordinated by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research (PIK).

## A new look at Greenland’s ice sheet and the bedrock below

From NASA: Airborne Radar Looking Through Thick Ice During NASA Polar Campaigns

The bedrock hidden beneath the thick ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica has intrigued researchers for years. Scientists are interested in how the shape of this hidden terrain affects how ice moves — a key factor in making predictions about the future of these massive ice reservoirs and their contribution to sea level rise in a changing climate.

NASA has been monitoring Antarctic and Arctic ice since 2009 with the Operation IceBridge airborne mission. Although the primary objective is to continue the data record of ice sheet surface elevation changes from NASA’s Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite, or ICESat, which stopped functioning in 2009, IceBridge is also gathering data on other aspects of polar ice from snow on top to the bedrock below.  One radar instrument on these flights that is currently headed to Antarctica for another year of observations is revealing insights about the bedrock hidden beneath the ice sheet.

## Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises.

Public Briefing: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change

Tuesday, December 3
11:00-12:00 EST
Koshland Science Museum (6th & E Streets, NW)
525 E St NW, Washington, DC 20001
or live Webcast

Posted in Climate News | | 49 Comments

## Study predicts the sun is headed for a Dalton-like solar minimum around 2050

Method uses the Ap geomagnetic index, which has been in a slump since October 2005:

The Hockey Schtick tips us to a paper published today in Advances in Space Research predicts that if the current lull in solar activity “endures in the 21st century the Sun shall enter a Dalton-like grand minimum. It was a period of global cooling.”

The graph they produced with the paper: Continue reading

Posted in Solar | | 265 Comments

## Mail wars: Heartland -vs- the AMS

There is a bit of a row that has developed over the recent American Meteorological Society survey of its membership on cause of climate change that gave a surprising result of only 52% of survey respondents answering Yes: Mostly human.   The Heartland Institute sent out an email advising its friends, members, and associates of the survey results, as show below, and the AMS is quite unhappy about that email.   Continue reading

## History falsifies climate alarmist sea level claims

Seas have been rising and falling for thousands of years – without help from the EPA or IPCC

Guest essay by Robert W. Endlich

Sea levels are rising rapidly! Coastal communities are becoming more vulnerable to storms and storm surges! Small island nations are going to disappear beneath the waves!

Climate alarmists have been making these claims for years, trying to tie them to events like “Superstorm” Sandy, which was below Category 1 hurricane strength when it struck New York City in October 2012, and Typhoon Haiyan, which plowed into the low-lying central Philippines in November 2013.

For alarmists, it does not seem to matter that the strength and frequency of tropical storms have been decreasing in recent years, while the rate of sea level rise has fallen to about seven inches per century. Nor does it seem to matter that the lost lives and property have little to do with the storms’ sheer power. Their destructive impact was caused by their hitting heavily populated areas, where governments had not adequately informed citizens of the size and ferocity of imminent storm surges, too few people had evacuated – and people, buildings and emergency equipment were insufficiently prepared to withstand the furious storm onslaughts.

The alarmist cries are not meant to be honest or factual. They are intended to generate hysterical headlines, public anxiety about climate change, and demands for changes in energy policies and use.   Continue reading

Posted in Sea level | | 81 Comments

## Is the Bern Model Non-Physical?

Guest essay by Joe Born

Is the Bern Model non-physical? Maybe, but not because it requires the atmosphere to partition its carbon content non-physically.

A Bern Model for the response of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration $\rho_{CO_2}$ to anthropogenic emissions $E_{CO_2}$ is arrived at by adopting the values of $f_{CO_2}$, $\tau_{CO_2}$ (and maybe $C_{CO_2}$) that make the best fit of the following equation to the historical record:

Posted in Carbon dioxide | | 129 Comments

## Mechanical Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

[NOTE the update at the end of the post.] I’ve continued my peregrinations following the spoor of the global climate model data cited in my last post. This was data from 19 global climate models. There are two parts to the data, the inputs and the outputs. The inputs to the models are the annual forcings (the change in downwelling radiation at the top of the atmosphere) for the period 1860 to 2100. The outputs of the models are the temperature hindcasts/forecasts for the same period, 1860 to 2100. Figure 1 shows an overview of the two datasets (model forcings and modeled temperatures) the nineteen models, for the historical period 1860-2000.

Figure 1. Forcing (red lines, W/m2) and modeled temperatures (blue lines, °C) from 19 global climate models for the period 1860-2000. Light vertical lines show the timing of the major volcanic eruptions. The value shown in upper part of each panel is the decadal trend in the temperatures.  For comparison, the trend in the HadCRUT observational dataset is 0.04°C/decade, while the models range from 0.01 to 0.1°C/decade, a tenfold variation. The value in the lower part of each panel is the decadal trend in forcing. Click any graphic to enlarge.

The most surprising thing to me about this is the wide disparity in the amount, trend, and overall shape of the different forcings. Even the effects of the volcanic eruptions (sharp downwards excursions in the forcings [red line]), which I expected to be similar between the models, have large variations between the models. Look at the rightmost eruption in each panel, Pinatubo in 1991. The GFDL-ESM2M model shows a very large volcanic effect from Pinatubo, over 3 W/m2. Compare that to the effect of Pinatubo in the ACCESS1-0 model, only about 1 W/m2.

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | | 90 Comments

## Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

##### The Week That Was: 2013-11-30 (November 30, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

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Quote of the Week: Even then [18th century] it was clear to socially minded people that the openness of the possibilities was an opportunity, and that doubt and discussion were essential to progress into the unknown. If we want to solve a problem that we have never solved before, we must leave the door to the unknown ajar. Richard Feynman, Value of Science

Number of the Week: 11% v. 80%

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### THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Federal Funding: The recent White House report on Federal Climate Changes Expenditures (budget authority) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013, which ended on September 30, gave an opportunity for SEPP to update its calculations of total government expenditures since 1993 and to examine how these expenditures have changed during the 21 year period covered.

Posted in Climate News Roundup | | 9 Comments

## New emotification of global warming: selling the sizzle of melting glaciers

“The sound of ice melting” Image by Paul Kos

From the American Institute of Physics, some research they lament doesn’t carry “the same emotional wallop as images” related to “climate trends”. Oh, darn.

Maybe they need to link up with artist Paul Kos whose performance art is seen at right. His emotive imagery and recordings of ice melting dates all the way back to 1970. Yes, regular man-made ice makes sounds while it melts too. According to the press release, this “research” was also done in a studio, rather than in situ. It’s all about the tiny bubbles escaping it seems, something I’ll bet Don Ho would appreciate.

Hmm, maybe they should team up with these guys and release an album: “City College of New York music professor Jonathan Perl teamed up with City University of New York climate professor Marco Tedesco to create musical soundscapes or “sonifications” that document the changes in the glacial ice in Greenland over the last 54 years.

Or maybe these guys: “Glaciers are dying, but they are not doing so quietly. The Glacier Music project of the Goethe Institutes in Tashkent and Almaty uses the sounds and powerful emotional image of melting glaciers as source of inspiration for festivals, open calls, concerts, sculpture, video and sound installations.“.

Emotifying ice melt has been a popular pastime with warmists, who have traditionally focused on the supposed plight of polar bears. However, the sound of melting ice is hardly anything new, explorers and the indigenous people of the Arctic have heard it for centuries. With 50 words for snow, I’m betting they even have a word for noisy melting ice since they’d hear it every spring.

Glaciers sizzle as they disappear into warmer water

The sounds of bubbles escaping from melting ice make underwater glacial fjords one of the loudest natural marine environments on earth

SAN FRANCISCO, Nov. 27, 2013 – Scientists have recorded and identified one of the most prominent sounds of a warming planet: the sizzle of glacier ice as it melts into the sea. The noise, caused by trapped air bubbles squirting out of the disappearing ice, could provide clues to the rate of glacier melt and help researchers better monitor the fast-changing polar environments.  Continue reading

## The Josh-WUWT 2014 Climate Skeptics Calendar is now available

Here is your chance again to join “Josh of the Month Club”. Samples follow.

Posted in Announcements | 39 Comments

## Zombie comet ISON dies again

We discussed the ISON ISOFF again nature of comet ISON in this WUWT thread, now it looks like ISOFF again.

From NASA’s Spaceweather.com (h/t Fernando): Comet ISON is fading fast as it recedes from the sun. Whatever piece of the comet survived the Thanksgiving flyby of the sun is now dissipating in a cloud of dust.  (animation follows)

Posted in Uncategorized | 197 Comments

## Schellnhuber hits the wall of reality: full stop

Pierre Gosselin writes:

Europe Climate Policy Blows Engine…”Giant Failure” … Scientists “Failed Tricking Their Way Past Democracy” …”Mood Of Resignation”

Good news!

This is about one of the most damning pieces on the European climate movement I’ve read all year. An atmosphere of resignation is truly sweeping through Germany’s climate movement. Flagship media are waking up.

We’re winning!

Posted in Climate News | | 105 Comments