Can we deduce climate sensitivity from temperature?

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Central to Professor Lovejoy’s paper attempting to determine climate sensitivity from recent temperature trends is the notion that in any 125-year period uninfluenced by anthropogenic forcings there is only a 10% probability of a global temperature trend greater than +0.25 K or less than –0.25 K.

Like most of the hypotheses that underpin climate panic, this one is calculatedly untestable. The oldest of the global temperature datasets – HadCRUt4 – starts only in 1850, so that the end of the earliest 125-year period possible in that dataset is 1974, well into the post-1950 period of potential anthropogenic influence.

However, the oldest regional instrumental dataset, the Central England Temperature Record, dates back to 1659. It may give us some pointers.  Continue reading

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Posted in Climate sensitivity | 96 Comments

26 multi-kiloton nuclear sized explosions detected in Earth’s atmosphere since 2001

The biggest threat to humanity, far bigger than global warming/climate change, is about to get bigger, much bigger

chelyabinsk-asteroid-fireball

The chelyabinsk asteroid fireball, a “near-Earth object” (NEO), an asteroid (likely made of rock) between 15 and 20 meters across (about the length of a school bus), which just happened to arrive in the same place as planet Earth that morning. The mass of the object was about 10 thousand tons. It struck the atmosphere moving at about 40,000 MPH (more than double the speed of the Space Shuttle).

A press release from some former NASA astronauts on the current asteroid impact threat to earth, based on data on in-atmosphere detonations since 2001, gleaned from a nuclear weapon detonation detection system has yielded some startling numbers.

The threat is 3 to 10 times higher than previously predicted. The data will be presented at the Seattle Flight Museum, Tuesday April 22, at 6:00pm PDT.

Just last night, another fireball was seen over Russia, caught on a dashcamera. See video.

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Posted in Climate News | 143 Comments

Open thread – with an important question

open_thread

I have some important work to do today, and so I’m going to put my interaction with WUWT on hold for a bit. However, I see here an opportunity to ask a question I have been pondering for quite some time. Please help me out by answering the question and discussing it. Of course other things within site policy are fair game too.

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Posted in Climate News | 441 Comments

My Friend Billy

(Note – I saved this for the weekend, when people who might read this would likely be more relaxed. This is not the usual fare for WUWT, but it is something that is revealing, enlightening, entertaining, and educational, while at the same time sad and sunny all at once. If you want science, skip this article. If you want a perspective on life, read on  – Anthony)

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Warning: Viewer discretion advised. This post discusses adult themes and content. Oh, not the usual adult themes we get on TV, like D: Suggestive Dialogue or V: Violence. Instead, it is a discussion of the following well-known wanted criminal:
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Posted in Willis Autobiography | Tagged | 492 Comments

Telling ‘Noble Cause Lies’ About Climate Change Will Backfire

truth-and-lies[1]Essay by Tom Harris, originally published in PJMedia

Over the past twenty years, we’ve been subjected to a barrage of catastrophic climate change forecasts and prophecies that would put Moses to shame. Coastal communities will be submerged due to rapid sea-level rise caused by soaring temperatures and glacier melt. Record heat waves, droughts, floods, insect infestations, and wildfires will result in millions of climate change refugees fleeing their ruined homelands. Competition over increasingly scarce water resources will lead to armed conflict. About all that has been missing from these doom and gloom predictions is alien invasion.

Like Moses’ warnings to Pharaoh in the Bible, we are told there is a high price to pay if we are to avoid climate change-driven “death, injury, and disrupted livelihoods,” to quote from the March 31 report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We must reduce our carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 70% by 2050 to keep so-called global temperature from exceeding 2° C above pre-industrial levels, the IPCC claims.  This will require massive cuts in our use of coal, oil, and natural gas, the sources of 87% of world primary energy consumption. What’s also needed, according to yet another IPCC report, Climate Change 2014 – Mitigation of Climate Change, released on April 12, is nothing less than:

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Posted in Climate_change, Noble Cause Corruption | 134 Comments

Holdren Is Wrong – Cold Winters Are Not Getting More Common

By Paul Homewood

As WUWT points out, John Holdren is one of many who have tried to link the cold winter in the USA this year to global warming.

In his White House video in January, he had this to say:

“A growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues….

We also know that this week’s cold spell is of a type there’s reason to believe may become more frequent in a world that’s getting warmer, on average, because of greenhouse-gas pollution.”

But is there any evidence that extreme cold winters are becoming more common, or, for that matter, more extreme?

First, let’s check the temperature trends for the CONUS in winter.

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Posted in Climate News, extreme weather, Polar Vortex, Weather | Tagged , , , | 140 Comments

Friday Funny – climate ‘cliff notes’

Josh writes:

As many know I have a bit of a ‘glass half full’ opinion on the state of climate science and with the recent IPCC offerings along with activist mutterings of ‘we are all heading for a cliff type’ alarmism and calls for Climate Scientist strike action, I imagined this view of where we/they are at.  Continue reading

Posted in Humor, Satire | 37 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 4 – Early Evolution – Comparison with Other Satellite-Era El Niños

In the preceding post, we looked at the evolution of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in two regions of the equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 and NINO1+2), comparing the data so far in 2014 to those of the strong 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events. (See 2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events.) We presented them because there are a lot of comparisons of this El Niño to those strong El Niños.

In this post, using the same two regions, we’ll compare the evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies this year to the rest of the satellite-era El Niño events. And we’ll also compare this year to the average, because someone was bound to ask.

This post serves solely as a reference. What it illustrates very well is that there is a tremendous amount of diversity in the evolutions of sea surface temperatures during El Niño events. A tremendous amount of diversity.

Are you ready for some spaghetti?

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 43 Comments

Al Gore dupes 9000 people in Hawaii, insults the rest

Climate change is real and getting worse, Al Gore told the packed audience. Image: PF Bentley/Civil Beat

The story below is from from Honolulu Civil Beat, who covered a political rally on April 15th by Gore to 9000 people in Honolulu’s Stan Sheriff Center. It is a 12,500 seat sports auditorium where his voice was amplified by, his slideshow enabled with, and his persona illuminated by and made comfortable with air-conditioning, all made possible by the “dirty energy” electricity generated by fossil fuels that he railed against.

HECO power plant at Kahe Point, powered by oil.

The electricity that enabled Mr. Gore’s rally was courtesy of the oil burning power plants of the Hawaiian Electric Company, such as the HECO power plant at Kahe Point in West Oahu seen at right.

Gore himself once said in a crackpot statement: “there is no such thing as ethical oil.” 

Yes, fossil fuels in the form of “dirty oil” enabled Gore to tell these people all about why they shouldn’t be using it.

But, that’s just the start of Mr. Gore’s hypocrisy. Read on. Continue reading

Posted in Al Gore, Alarmism | 124 Comments

When Greenland was green in warmer times

From the University of Vermont

Science: There’s something ancient in the icebox

Researchers find 3-million-year-old landscape beneath Greenland Ice Sheet

In this one-minute video, University of Vemont scientists demonstrate how they discovered 3 million-year-old soil under the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Glaciers are commonly thought to work like a belt sander. As they move over the land they scrape off everything—vegetation, soil, and even the top layer of bedrock. So scientists were greatly surprised to discover an ancient tundra landscape preserved under the Greenland Ice Sheet, below two miles of ice.

“We found organic soil that has been frozen to the bottom of the ice sheet for 2.7 million years,” said University of Vermont geologist Paul Bierman—providing strong evidence that the Greenland Ice Sheet has persisted much longer than previously known, enduring through many past periods of global warming.

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Posted in Paleoclimatology | 85 Comments

The Holdren ‘cherry blossom vortex’, Information Quality Act, and U.S. weather history

CEI is taking John Holdren to task over his “polar vortex” video.

In a post today at globalwarming.org we have this:Post image for Will Cherry Blossoms Get Sucked into the Polar Vortex?

DC’s cherry trees hit their official peak blossom date last Thursday, April 10th.  That’s the latest in the year that the Capital has experienced peak blossoming in over two decades.  (For you botanical historians, the last time that peak blossoming occurred this late or later was in 1993, when the event fell on April 11.)

In 2013 the blossoms were almost as late, hitting their peak on April 9.  That was a pretty dramatic change from 2012, when the date fell on March 20. This change was most disconcerting to two groups: tourists trying to plan their trips to DC in advance, and global warming alarmists who trumpeted every earlier-than-expected cherry blossom as yet further proof of global warming.  In fact, in a sizzling multi-part blog post series last year, followed by dozens of readers, we charted peak blossom dates against global warming data.  We even had graphs.  (See Adam Sandberg, Peak Bloom Is Here – DC’s Global Warming Canary Lands with Frost on its Feet, April 15, 2013.)

White House Science adviser John Holdren made some ridiculous and baseless claims about the “polar vortex” being tied to climate change in a hastily produced “never let a good crisis go to waste” style video on YouTube. Readers may recall our January 8th WUWT story:

 

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Posted in Climate News, Polar Vortex, Weather | 68 Comments

Using Intellectual Property agreements to defeat public disclosure

Phil Jones’ plan to hide from FOIA

Eric Worrall writes:

Anyone shocked by Mann’s broad claims of academic exemption from freedom of information, due to the “proprietary nature” of his work, should consider the following Climategate email.

Climategate Email 1106338806.txt says:

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Posted in Climategate, FOI, Michael E. Mann | 63 Comments

Decision in the Mann/UVa case, a blow to open science

Supreme Court of VA sides with University, secrecy, and Mann.  The previously claimed destruction of Mann emails now to begin.

In this appeal, we consider whether the Circuit Court of Prince William County (“trial court”) erred by denying a request for disclosure of certain documents under the Virginia Freedom of Information Act (“VFOIA”), Code § 2.2-3700 et seq., and whether a public body may impose charges for the cost of reviewing documents under the statutory exclusions.1

130934 American Tradition Inst. v. Rector and Visitors 04/17/2014

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Posted in FOI, Michael E. Mann | 106 Comments

Not quite Friday Funny: The new Ty-D-Bol Man – a rising tide floats all, er, boats

Some WUWT readers may remember this classic TV commercial:

Josh writes:

It looks like Lew & crew want to continue to debate the merits of his paper.

H/t and many thanks to Jo Nova for the ‘flushes itself’ idea.

I present, with help from Josh, the Lew-D-Bol Man:   Continue reading

Posted in Humor, Satire, Stephan Lewandowsky | Tagged , , | 20 Comments

Lewandowsky on ‘leakage’

No smear psychological categorization mission is too offbeat for Lew. Now he’s on about “leakage”. Try to stifle the images that conjures up while thinking about your choice of preventative antiemetics.

s mac says: in WUWT Tips and Notes:

Anthony, there is a YouTube video (link below) of Lewandowsky giving a talk at the AGU Chapman conference, and its very revealing and your readers would enjoy, he’s equal parts clown, bully, and circus performer.

He’s desperately trying to find a footprint for what he does – categorize the pigeonhole people and surmise their intentions, motivations — and find a place for it (and himself) in the “save the world” ethos of climate change activists. Video follows:

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Posted in Post-normal science, Stephan Lewandowsky, Uncertainty | 105 Comments

Tilted planets may actually have more life favorable climate

Odd Tilts Could Make More Worlds Habitable

Pivoting planets that lean one way and then change orientation within a short geological time period might be surprisingly habitable, according to new modeling by NASA and university scientists affiliated with the NASA Astrobiology Institute.

The climate effects generated on these wobbling worlds could prevent them from turning into glacier-covered ice lockers, even if those planets are somewhat far from their stars. And with some water remaining liquid on the surface long-term, such planets could maintain favorable conditions for life.

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Posted in Climate News, Space | 51 Comments

A Clear Example of IPCC Ideology Trumping Fact

By Paul C. Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels
Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute

Within the U.S. federal government (and governments around the world), the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is given authority when it comes to climate change opinion.

This isn’t a good idea.

Here perhaps is the clearest example yet. By the time you get to the end of this post, we think you may be convinced that the IPCC does not seek to tell the truth—the truth being that it has overstated the case for climate worry in in its previous reports. The “consensus of scientists” instead prefers to obfuscate.

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Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | 125 Comments

UN IPCC AR5 report infected with fatal technical and procedural flaws

UN report’s fatal flaws destroy credibility of WGII and WGIII findings

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

The UN IPCC AR5 latest climate assessment process comprising WGI, WGII and WGIII reports is complete. This process includes many hundreds of authors and reviewers, consideration of thousands of papers and ten of thousands of pages of reports, associated technical summaries and appendices. Yet amazingly with all this extraordinary expenditure time, effort and expense the report itself documents a monumental failure which has infected the process with fatal technical and procedural flaws which destroy the credibility of the WGII and WGIII findings.

The genesis of the fatal technical and procedural flaws are contained in the WGI report which documents the failure of the climate model global temperature projections to agree with observed global temperature measurements.

 

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Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | 28 Comments

Satellite captures five volcanoes erupting at once on the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula

Remote. Cold. Rugged. Those three adjectives capture the essence of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. Another word—perhaps more applicable than anywhere else on Earth—is “fiery.”

Of the roughly 1,550 volcanoes that have erupted in the recent geologic past, 113 are found on Kamchatka. Forty Kamchatkan volcanoes are “active,” either erupting now or capable of erupting on short notice. The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured activity at five of them during a single satellite pass on April 14, 2014.

Imagery follows.

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Posted in Volcanoes | 60 Comments

Decision expected tomorrow in Mann UVa FOIA case

At the blog “Open Virginia Law” they are discussing the Mann case and potential impacts, as a new session results will be published from the Supreme Court of Virginia, and it’s likely the Mann/UVa case is one of them.

Insiders tell me that even if Mann/UVa loses, they’ll likely take a on a new position and file a claim of First Amendment right to academic freedom prohibiting release of the ClimateGate and HockeyStick emails, and surely will again encourage Mann to join, each claiming the right rests with them. With Mann, it’s all about delaying the inevitable, unless of course somebody like the hero of Climategate “FOIA” decides to take matters into their own hands and stop this abuse of the legal system and FOIA law by making an email dump. I don’t underestimate that possibility.

Here’s the situation:

Climate change’s looming impact on Virginia’s FOIA

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Posted in Climategate, FOI, Michael E. Mann | 43 Comments