Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
While working on finishing the story of my sea voyage last week down from Canada to Oregon, I was surprised to see that there is a new market in the world of marine “eco-tourism”. This one involves burning thousands and thousands of gallons of eeevil fossil fuels so that rich folks can make a futile attempt to traverse the Northwest Passage, over the top of the US from Anchorage to New York. In a giant cruise ship. Not this year, not next year, but in the year 2016. Polar cruises of all kinds seem to be hot right now. As a seaman, I think that there are places where no cruise ship should go. Here’s a picture of an Antarctic cruise that went wrong … Continue reading
NOAA’s State of the Climate Report for June 2014 included the bullet point under global highlights (my boldface):
For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.
Yikes, it sounds as though it’s a manmade global warming problem. But we know that’s not true because climate models doubled the warming rate of global sea surface temperatures for the past 3+ decades. So even record highs are much better than the temperatures anticipated by the latest and greatest climate models. As an advanced warning, NOAA will be making a similar statement for July 2014. See the graphs to the right. (Click for full size.) The red horizontal lines are the July 2014 values. NOAA bases their discussions on the ERSST.v3b-based data (bottom graph). The satellite-enhanced Reynolds OI.v2 dataset (top graph) serves as a reference. Yup, it’s true. July 2014 global sea surface temperatures are the warmest on record, too.
In this post, we’ll present which ocean basin is showing the elevated sea surface temperature anomalies, and where they’re showing it, and provide what will likely be eventually reported as the reasons for those warm temperatures: strong trade winds and persistent high sea level pressures over eastern Siberia and Alaska.
The “King of Cool” writes in our recent Open Thread
Weather is never just weather
Says Sophie Cunningham in her new book which she is promoting all over Australia at the moment warning us to be afraid, extremely afraid.
Why? Well, guess what – this year marks the fortieth anniversary of Cyclone Tracy which hit the city of Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974, killing 71 people, destroying 80% of the houses and leaving 41,000 of the 47,000 inhabitants homeless.
(Expect lots and lots more cyclone hysteria leading up to Dec 24)
Listen here to Sophie’s grave warning on the ABC (17.44 on the download audio):
Traveling today, as I have been all week, but this seemed like a good time for an open thread. Continue reading
Opinion; Dr. Tim Ball
The scientific theory I like best is that the rings of Saturn are composed entirely of lost airline luggage. Mike Russell
Lack of Data Is The Fundamental Problem
My first involvement with the Acid Rain scare was indirect, but added to awareness of the limitations of data and understanding of atmospheric and ocean mechanisms. It also heightened awareness of the political nature of environmental science. I knew the extents because of membership in the Canadian Committee on Climate Fluctuation and Man (CCCFM). It was part of the National Museum of Natural Sciences Project on Climate Change in Canada During the Past 20,000 years. The committee was funded jointly by the National Museum of Natural Sciences and Environment Canada. It met yearly for several years, bringing together a wide range of specialists to focus on a region, time period, or area of study. Papers were published in Syllogeus, edited by Dr C.R.Harington of the Paleobiology Division. A review of them underlines how much the IPCC sidelined progress in climatology.
From the University of Innsbruck, another modeling study.
This news release is available in German.
The ongoing global glacier retreat causes rising sea-levels, changing seasonal water availability and increasing geo-hazards. While melting glaciers have become emblematic of anthropogenic climate change, glacier extent responds very slowly to climate changes. “Typically, it takes glaciers decades or centuries to adjust to climate changes,” says climate researcher Ben Marzeion from the Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics of the University of Innsbruck. Continue reading
Psychological Problems faced by disappointed alarmists
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
The Sydney Morning Herald has published an article describing the psychological problems alarmists are experiencing, in the wake of their Copenhagen 2009 disappointment.
Ask most alarmists and they will insist they are winning the debate – that the world is about to embrace green orthodoxy, that carbon trading schemes are rising, that “deniers” are more marginalised than ever before. Continue reading
Walney Wind Farm under construction in 2011
Hazard to navigation?
Danish ‘Safety Ship’ OMS Pollux, leaking oil after colliding with Morecambe Bay wind turbine
A SHIP is leaking diesel after crashing into a wind turbine off the coast of Morecambe Bay.
Liverpool Coastguard has been in attendance since just after 9am this morning co-ordinating the recovery of the stricken vessel which collided with part of a turbine at Walney Wind Farm. Continue reading
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
How do we prove climate alarmists are wrong? Let us count the ways
If the temperature goes up, this is just what the models predicted – watch out because …
From the University of Wisconsin-Madison , where they apparently have not heard of Liebig’s Law of the Minimum since they say resources and hydraulic limitation “might” play a role.
MADISON, Wis. — What limits the height of trees? Is it the fraction of their photosynthetic energy they devote to productive new leaves? Or is it their ability to hoist water hundreds of feet into the air, supplying the green, solar-powered sugar factories in those leaves? Continue reading
From the GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser
World Awash In Oil Shields Markets From 2008 Price Shock
The US shale boom is shaping a new kind of Democrat in national politics, lawmakers who are giving greater support to the oil and gas industry even at the risk of alienating environmental groups, a core of the party’s base. The trend comes as oil-and-gas production moves beyond America’s traditionally energy-rich states, a development that also is increasing U.S. geopolitical influence abroad. It is a theme playing out ahead of November’s midterm elections, with some Democrats trying to balance environmental groups’ concerns about climate change and an industry they see as carrying economic benefits. –Amy Harder, The Wall Street Journal, 12 August 2014
From NCAR, some wind pie in the sky.
A mother lode of wind power
Mapping the potential to harvest high-altitude wind
May 28, 2014 | What if all the energy needed by society existed just a mile or two above our heads? That’s the question raised by researchers in an emerging field known as airborne wind energy, which envisions using devices that might look like parachutes or gliders to capture electricity from the strong, steady winds that blow well above the surface in certain regions. Continue reading
From NASA: (satellite image follows) one wonders what this will do to the albedo of sea ice.
Numerous wildfires have dotted the Russian landscape this past summer fire season. Although not quite as the adage says, although still true, where there’s fire there’s smoke. The smoke in this image has drifted from the Eastern Russian wildfires to the Arctic Sea. Other images that have been collected over the summer show both the fires that have broken out and the accompanying smoke, and can be viewed by clicking the links below:
From the American Chemical Society
Dust — and the microbes hitching rides on it — influences rain, climate
SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 13, 2014 — Dusty air blowing across the Pacific from Asia and Africa plays a critical role in precipitation patterns throughout the drought-stricken western U.S. Today, a scientist will present new research suggesting that the exact chemical make-up of that dust, including microbes found in it, is the key to how much rain and snow falls from clouds throughout the region. This information could help better predict rain events, as well as explain how air pollution from a variety of sources influences regional climate in general. Continue reading
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
“WHAT if David Archibald’s book The Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short turns out to be right? What if the past 50 years of peace, cheap energy, abundant food, global economic growth and population explosion have been due to a temporary climate phenomenon?”
This is the first paragraph of Maurice Newman’s latest attack on the world’s infatuation with global warming.
From the GWPF and Dr. Benny Peiser
Despite the scientific consensus that global warming is occurring and caused by human activity, a new survey conducted for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette demonstrates that many Americans remain uncertain about the impact of climate change and the need for government action to address it. Only 41 percent of Americans believe that ‘most scientists agree that climate change is happening now caused mainly by human activities.’ –James P. O’Toole, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 10 August 2014
It never fails. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones always bring out the manmade global warming alarmists, with their claims of unusually warm sea surface temperatures along the storm tracks. Of course those fictionally warmed sea surface temperatures were caused by rising CO2 emissions. We expected and saw that nonsense when Sandy struck the east coast of the U.S. mainland back in 2012. Not unexpectedly, data contradicted the claims. See the posts here and here.
The same unwarranted alarmist claims magically appeared when the two tropical cyclones (Iselle and Julio) threatened Hawaii last week. Iselle’s storm track is shown on the map to the right. (Please click on it to enlarge.) I’ve highlighted the coordinates I’ve used for Iselle’s storm track…before it reached Hawaii. Julio’s track was similar but ran a little north of Iselle’s. So, were the sea surface temperatures along Iselle and Julio’s storm tracks unusually warm, and have the sea surface temperatures there warmed during the satellite era?
From the University of Washington
From research stations drifting on ice floes to high-tech aircraft radar, scientists have been tracking the depth of snow that accumulates on Arctic sea ice for almost a century. Now that people are more concerned than ever about what is happening at the poles, research led by the University of Washington and NASA confirms that snow has thinned significantly in the Arctic, particularly on sea ice in western waters near Alaska.
A new study, accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, a publication of the American Geophysical Union, combines data collected by ice buoys and NASA aircraft with historic data from ice floes staffed by Soviet scientists from the late 1950s through the early 1990s to track changes over decades.
If you believe warmist claims, then this abandoned house in Delray, Detroit, was likely overwhelmed by global warming, just like the sewer, causing occupants to flee as “climate refugees”.
Detroit blaming global warming instead of poor infrastructure maintenance.
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
The US City of Detroit is currently in the midst of a crisis – a massive rainstorm has overwhelmed the city’s sewer system, causing extensive flooding.
However, Craig Covey, spokesman for Oakland County Water Resources Commissioner Jim Nash, has blamed global warming for the floods.
According to Covey; Continue reading
From AGU blogs:
By Alexandra Branscombe
WASHINGTON, DC – Unforeseen, short-term increases in sea level caused by strong winds, pressure changes and fluctuating ocean currents can cause more damage to beaches on the East Coast over the course of a year than a powerful hurricane making landfall, according to a new study. The new research suggests that these sea-level anomalies could be more of a threat to coastal homes and businesses than previously thought, and could become higher and more frequent as a result of climate change.
Yes, I’m using the term Mulligan as in a replayed golf shot. Ocean-atmosphere processes have consumed most of the warm water in the eastern equatorial Pacific from the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave that had crossed the Pacific earlier this year. But we recently discussed and illustrated how a pool of subsurface warm water had broken off that Kelvin wave, returned west, and has now fed back into the western equatorial Pacific—priming the equatorial Pacific once again. (See Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?) With that recent “restocking” of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific, it looks like Mother Nature might be giving El Niño a second chance to develop this year.
Here are the numbers from the poll started yesterday. 657 votes were cast on the question “What will the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent be? “and the breakdown is shown below. Continue reading
Mark Steyn has submitted an amicus curiae brief in the CEI/National Review -vs- Mann and it has some interesting language. Unfortunately, since it is a scan of printed document, rather than a PDF conversion, I can’t excerpt as easily, so I have to use screencaps.
Mann’s goal is to drag things out.
Steyn lays out what it is all about – punishment by legal delay and the expenses it brings: Continue reading
Air travel will destroy the world
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
Southampton University in England has published a hilarious study, which calls for the implementation of a global strongman authority with “teeth” to stop us from travelling by air. According to the study;
Story submitted by Barry Brill
The Washington Post’s recent story that New Zealand might admit climate refugees from Tuvalu has no basis in fact.
“Tuvalu has become the epicenter of a landmark refugee ruling that could mark the beginning of a wave of similar cases: On June 4, a family was granted residency by the Immigration and Protection Tribunal in New Zealand after claiming to be threatened by climate change in its home country, Tuvalu.”: [Washington Post (Rick Noack) Aug 7 2014 ]
There are two major problems with this report: Continue reading
Dr. Roy Spencer sends sorrowful news. From The Huntsville Times Obituary Page.
A global temperature conundrum: Cooling or warming climate?
From the University of Wisconsin-Madison
MADISON, Wis. — When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently requested a figure for its annual report, to show global temperature trends over the last 10,000 years, the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Zhengyu Liu knew that was going to be a problem.
“We have been building models and there are now robust contradictions,” says Liu, a professor in the UW-Madison Center for Climatic Research. “Data from observation says global cooling. The physical model says it has to be warming.”
Allan MacRae says: Thanks to Alberta Jacobs
In a recent paper “The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its Association with Extended Minima”, to be soon published in JGR/Space, Feynman and Ruzmaikin discuss how the recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the 19th and 20th centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910.
The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces the call for contributions for the Sea Ice Outlook August report.
The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in arctic sea ice to share ideas about the September minimum sea ice extent. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. A post-season report will provide an in-depth analysis of factors driving sea ice extent this summer as well as explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal ice extent.
Story submitted by Mike Jonas
writes Angus Taylor, MP for Hume, New South Wales, Australia.
How refreshing it is to read something written by a politician that shows that they “get it”!
Some of the article follows, but first an explanation: Canberra – also known as the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) – was specially created in the early 20th century to be the capital of Australia, and that is its only reason for existence. The federal government of Australia is housed in Canberra. But Canberra itself is run by the local ACT Legislative Assembly aka the ACT Government. When Angus Taylor refers to “Canberra” or “the ACT” in this article, he is referring to the left-wing-controlled ACT Legislative Assembly, not to Australia’s federal parliament.
From the department of “I told you so and I have an experiment that precedes this to prove it” comes a paper that proves Bill Nye’s faked ‘greenhouse effect’ experiment is also based on the wrong ‘basic physics’. Remember when I ripped Bill and Al a new one, exposing not only their video fakery, but the fact that experiment fails and could never work? Well, somebody wrote a paper on it and took these two clowns to task.
The Hockey Schtick writes:
Oh dear, the incompetent & faked attempt by Bill Nye to demonstrate the greenhouse effect for Al Gore’s Climate “Reality” Project has also been shown by a peer-reviewed paper to be based upon the wrong “basic physics” as well. According to the authors, Nye’s experiment and other similar classroom demonstrations allegedly of the greenhouse effect: Continue reading
The Week That Was: 2014-08-09 (August 9, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “He who knows only his own side of the case, knows little of that.” – John Stuart Mill [H/t Climate Etc.]
Number of the Week: 20%
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
New Low? Some reporters have attempted to link the outbreak of Ebola, a viral hemorrhagic fever, with global warming/climate change. Normally, these assertions are not worth discussing. But, the Richmond Times-Dispatch hit a new low. Its editorial writers proclaimed that scientists who challenge the claim that carbon dioxide emissions are the principal cause of global warming are similar to those native Africans who claim that Ebola cannot be caused by a virus they cannot see. Continue reading
Green Movie in the Red
Story submitted by Kevin D Knoebel
The movie is The Green Inferno. NYC student activists travel to Amazon to save the rainforest, meet natives. Hilarity ensues.
It was suddenly pulled from the release schedule, and was supposed to be out September 5th. It’s said the financing company doesn’t have the money for the release:
Guest essay by Ed Hoskins
Using data published by the IPCC on the diminishing effect of increasing CO2 concentrations and the latest proportional information on global Man-made CO2 emissions, these notes examine the potential for further warming by CO2 emissions up to 1000ppmv and the probable consequences of decarbonisation policies being pursued by Western governments.
The temperature increasing capacity of atmospheric CO2 is real enough, but its influence is known and widely accepted to diminish as its concentration increases. It has a logarithmic in its relationship to concentration. Global Warming advocates and Climate Change sceptics both agree on this.
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
There’s a recent study in AGU Atmospheres entitled “Proxy evidence for China’s monsoon precipitation response to volcanic aerosols over the past seven centuries”, by Zhou et al, paywalled here. The study was highlighted by Anthony here. It makes the claim that volcanic eruptions cause droughts in China. Is this possible? Sure. But have they made their case? … well, that is far from sure.
As is far too common, the authors have not archived either the data as used or the code as used. So, again as usual, I’ve gone to take a look at the data. Their main dataset is a reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for China since the year 1300 … and how do they know what the PDSI was in China in the year say 1492? Continue reading