Author Archives: Bob Tisdale

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 14 – Warm Water Recirculated?

There may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly … Continue reading

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 71 Comments

June 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

Sorry this update is late. I got sidetracked with the post about Risbey et al. (2014), and the post about the new climate model, now with knobs. This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers … Continue reading

Posted in GISS, Lower Troposphere Temperature, NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 56 Comments

New Climate Model Introduced, now with knobs!

Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…

Posted in Humor, Modeling, Satire | 73 Comments

Lewandowsky and Oreskes Are Co-Authors of a Paper about ENSO, Climate Models and Sea Surface Temperature Trends (Go Figure!)

UPDATE 2: Animation 1 from this post is happily displaying the differences between the “Best” models and observations in the first comment at a well-known alarmist blog. Please see update 2 at the end of this post. # # # … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Stephan Lewandowsky | 381 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 13 – More Mixed Signals

A few interesting things have happened since the July Update last week. On the ocean side, weekly sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region have dropped (just) below the threshold of El Niño conditions (using the standard NOAA base years … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 33 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 12 – July 2014 Update – The Feedbacks Need to Kick in Soon

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the beginning of July 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May and June updates.  The post includes … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 55 Comments

Tropical Storm Arthur – There Is Nothing Unusual About the Sea Surface Temperatures Off the East Coast of the U.S.

UPDATE (July 2, 2014): See the correction at the end of the post. # # # This post was prepared in anticipation of the usual nonsense we hear whenever a tropical storm or hurricane forms and is expected to strike … Continue reading

Posted in hurricanes, Sea Surface Temperature | 23 Comments

From IRI – Eight Misconceptions About El Niño (and La Niña)

Yesterday, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) published a post about a number of mistaken beliefs about El Niño and La Niña events. Misconceptions discussed:

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 19 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 11 – Is the El Niño Dying?

There’s still a possibility the 2014/15 El Niño could die even though it had so much promise just a few months ago.  In this post, we’ll compare a few indicators now to where they were 2 months ago at the … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 76 Comments

The Unisys Daily Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Maps May Be Gone

Near the first of this month, the NOAA National Weather Service discontinued the sea surface temperature dataset used by Unisys to create their daily sea surface temperature and sea surface temperature anomaly maps. As a result, Unisys has been unable … Continue reading

Posted in Sea Surface Temperature | 38 Comments

May 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

This post updates the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS through May 2014 and HADCRUT4 and NCDC through April 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based global lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) … Continue reading

Posted in Lower Troposphere Temperature, NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 244 Comments

NOAA reaches out to the blogosphere

UPDATE: NOAA has corrected the typos in the illustrations at the new reanalysis intercomparison website. # # # # # NOAA opened two new blogs recently…and a new reanalysis intercomparison website, with a plethora of ENSO-related illustrations.

Posted in ENSO, hurricanes, NOAA | 22 Comments

Is One of the Objectives of All Alarmists to Be a Source of Misinformation?

Near the end of the June 3rd post The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 10 – June 2014 Update – Still Waiting for the Feedbacks, I discussed that misinformation about the developing El Niño would the topic of an upcoming … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism | 89 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 10 – June 2014 Update – Still Waiting for the Feedbacks

This post provides an update on the progress of the early evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño with data through the end of May 2014. The post is similar in layout to the May update. The post includes 5 gif … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, feedbacks | 65 Comments

SkepticalScience Needs to Update their Escalator

The SkepticalScience animation The Escalator has been around for a couple of years, and it has appeared in dozens of their posts and in blog posts by other carbon dioxide-obsessed alarmists. Their intent with The Escalator animation was to show … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 94 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 9 – Kevin Trenberth is Looking Forward to Another “Big Jump”

In a recent interview, Kevin Trenberth, Distinguished Senior Scientist, from NCAR said the upcoming 2014/15 El Niño might shift global surface temperatures upwards by 0.2 to 0.3 deg C to further the series of upward steps. Curiously, Trenberth is continuing … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 121 Comments

April 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Update

Initial Notes: This is the first monthly update to include lower troposphere temperature (TLT) anomaly data. To make this post as timely as possible, only GISS LOTI and the two lower troposphere temperature datasets are for the most current month. … Continue reading

Posted in Lower Troposphere Temperature, NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 29 Comments

Hurricane Development Region Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies as We Start the 2014 Season

IMPORTANT OPENING NOTE Even if the sea surface temperature anomalies were to remain depressed throughout the 2014 hurricane season (highly unlikely), the actual sea surface temperatures (absolute) from June to November will rise to values capable of spawning hurricanes…a result … Continue reading

Posted in hurricanes, Sea Surface Temperature, Weather | 19 Comments

Answer to the Question Posed at Climate Etc.: By What Mechanism Does an El Niño Contribute to Global Warming?

Late last week, Judith Curry published a post written by Donald Rapp titled El Ninos and La Ninas and Global Warming. Donald referred to my work a number of times in that post. That, of course, created the expected responses … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics | 53 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 8 – The Southern Oscillation Indices

The Southern Oscillation Index has been mentioned often in comments at WattsUpWithThat, in this series of blog posts about the upcoming El Niño. Curiously, Australia’s BOM Southern Oscillation Index for April 2014 is at a positive value that’s near to … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics | 69 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 7 – May 2014 Update and What Should Happen Next

This post provides an update on the progress of the evolution of the 2014/15 El Niño. Included are updates of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for the four most-often-used NINO regions. Also included are updates of the GODAS map-based … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics | 73 Comments

A Different Perspective of Global Warming

I was preparing a few graphs for a chapter of my upcoming book (current working title An Illustrated Guide to Global Warming and Skepticism), and I thought readers here would find them interesting because they display global warming in a … Continue reading

Posted in Global warming | 59 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 6 – What’s All The Hubbub About?…

…or Introductions to the Impacts of El Niños on Global Weather Patterns and to the Long-Term Effects of Strong El Niño Events on Global Surface Temperatures Since the first of the year, there have been hundreds, possibly thousands, of news … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics | 103 Comments

On the Differences and Similarities between Global Surface Temperature and Lower Troposphere Temperature Anomaly Datasets

UPDATE: See the correction at the end of the post, which pertained to the discussion of the trend maps in Figures 13 and 14. I’ve crossed out the paragraph between those illustrations that was incorrect. And I’ve corrected a good … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Lower Troposphere Temperature, NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 61 Comments

March 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update

INITIAL QUESTION Once upon a time, the NCDC published its monthly global land+ocean surface temperature anomaly data around the 15th of the month. They have recently relaxed the dates of their monthly global state of the climate updates. The NCDC … Continue reading

Posted in Hiatus in Global Warming, NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 43 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 5 – The Relationship Between the PDO and ENSO

UPDATE: I’ve added NOAA’s description of the PDO index toward the end of the post, before the closing. # # # During the earlier discussions of the upcoming El Niño event, the topic of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, PDO | 78 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 4 – Early Evolution – Comparison with Other Satellite-Era El Niños

In the preceding post, we looked at the evolution of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in two regions of the equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 and NINO1+2), comparing the data so far in 2014 to those of the strong 1982/83 and … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 43 Comments

2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events

Comparisons are still being made of the 1997/98 El Niño with the El Niño forming this year. So I thought we should compare the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for this year, in two NINO regions, with those during 1997 … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 61 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 2 – The Alarmist Misinformation (BS) Begins

I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible. Even the title Monster El Nino Emerging … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 76 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 1 – The Initial Processes of the El Niño

The title of the post, of course, assumes that an El Niño event will form this year and carry over into the next. This post is intended for persons new to the topic of El Niño events—and for those who … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 34 Comments

El Niño Residuals Cause the C-Shaped Warming Pattern in the Pacific

In the recent model-data comparison of satellite-era sea surface temperature anomalies—appropriately titled Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans—we compared trend maps of modeled and observed sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2013. See Figure 1. … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Oceans, Sea Surface Temperature | 88 Comments

Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans

UPDATE (April 6, 2014): I’ve added a link to a follow-up post about the cause of the observed C-shaped warming pattern in the Pacific. # # # The climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive are supposed to be simulations … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate FAIL, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 36 Comments

March ENSO Update – outlook suggests a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season

Just about all indicators are pointing to a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season. See the NOAA weekly ENSO update dated March 24, 2014. The subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific associated with the downwelling (warm) … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 63 Comments

GISS LOTI & NCDC Global Temperature Data Drop in February 2014

This post will serve as February 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update First GISS: Global surface temperatures, as represented by the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) data, dropped about 0.25 deg C from January to February 2014. See Figure … Continue reading

Posted in NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 43 Comments

On Chylek et al (2014) – The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a Dominant Factor of Oceanic Influence on Climate

I was advised of a recent paper that studies the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on global surface temperatures since 1900. (Thanks, Anthony.) The paper is Chylek et al. (2014) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate News, ENSO | 58 Comments