Author Archives: Bob Tisdale

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.

March 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update

INITIAL QUESTION Once upon a time, the NCDC published its monthly global land+ocean surface temperature anomaly data around the 15th of the month. They have recently relaxed the dates of their monthly global state of the climate updates. The NCDC … Continue reading

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Posted in Hiatus in Global Warming, NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 41 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 5 – The Relationship Between the PDO and ENSO

UPDATE: I’ve added NOAA’s description of the PDO index toward the end of the post, before the closing. # # # During the earlier discussions of the upcoming El Niño event, the topic of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, PDO | 74 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 4 – Early Evolution – Comparison with Other Satellite-Era El Niños

In the preceding post, we looked at the evolution of the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies in two regions of the equatorial Pacific (NINO3.4 and NINO1+2), comparing the data so far in 2014 to those of the strong 1982/83 and … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 43 Comments

2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events

Comparisons are still being made of the 1997/98 El Niño with the El Niño forming this year. So I thought we should compare the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for this year, in two NINO regions, with those during 1997 … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 61 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 2 – The Alarmist Misinformation (BS) Begins

I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has yet to form and there’s already a well-commented blog post about it that spreads more speculative nonsense than one would think possible. Even the title Monster El Nino Emerging … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 76 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 1 – The Initial Processes of the El Niño

The title of the post, of course, assumes that an El Niño event will form this year and carry over into the next. This post is intended for persons new to the topic of El Niño events—and for those who … Continue reading

Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 34 Comments

El Niño Residuals Cause the C-Shaped Warming Pattern in the Pacific

In the recent model-data comparison of satellite-era sea surface temperature anomalies—appropriately titled Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans—we compared trend maps of modeled and observed sea surface temperature anomalies from 1982 to 2013. See Figure 1. … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Oceans, Sea Surface Temperature | 88 Comments

Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans

UPDATE (April 6, 2014): I’ve added a link to a follow-up post about the cause of the observed C-shaped warming pattern in the Pacific. # # # The climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive are supposed to be simulations … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate FAIL, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 36 Comments

March ENSO Update – outlook suggests a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season

Just about all indicators are pointing to a moderately strong El Niño for the 2014/15 ENSO season. See the NOAA weekly ENSO update dated March 24, 2014. The subsurface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific associated with the downwelling (warm) … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 63 Comments

GISS LOTI & NCDC Global Temperature Data Drop in February 2014

This post will serve as February 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update First GISS: Global surface temperatures, as represented by the GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) data, dropped about 0.25 deg C from January to February 2014. See Figure … Continue reading

Posted in NASA GISS, NCDC, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 43 Comments

On Chylek et al (2014) – The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a Dominant Factor of Oceanic Influence on Climate

I was advised of a recent paper that studies the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on global surface temperatures since 1900. (Thanks, Anthony.) The paper is Chylek et al. (2014) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate News, ENSO | 58 Comments

It Isn’t How Climate Scientists Communicated their Message; It’s the Message

Over the past few months, there have been a number of articles about how the climate science community could have presented their message differently, or responded differently, so that they could have avoided the problem they’re now facing with the … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate Communications, Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC, Modeling | 142 Comments

An Odd Mix of Reality and Misinformation from the Climate Science Community on England et al. (2014)

In this post, we’ll discuss a recent article and blog post about the recently published England et al. (2014). This post includes portions of past posts and a number of new discussions and illustrations. We’ve already discussed (post here) the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Sea Surface Temperature | 48 Comments

El Niño and La Niña Basics: Introduction to the Pacific Trade Winds

[UPDATE: I corrected the dates in the title blocks of Figures 10 and 11. My thanks to blogger Bob.moe for finding the typos.] England et al. (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 55 Comments

Cowtan and Way (2013) Adjustments Exaggerate Climate Model Failings at the Poles and Do Little to Explain the Hiatus

We’ve already discussed Cowtan and Way’s infilling of HADCRUT4 data in the post On Cowtan and Way (2013) “Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends”. The paper is available here. In that earlier … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, Cowtan & Way, Modeling, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 82 Comments

January 2014 Global Surface (Land+Ocean) Temperature Anomaly Update

Initial Notes: This post contains graphs of running trends in global surface temperature anomalies for periods of 13+ and 16+ years using GISS global (land+ocean) surface temperature data. They indicate that we have not seen a warming halt and slowdown … Continue reading

Posted in NASA GISS, NCDC, Temperature, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 57 Comments

El Niño or La Nada for the 2014/15 ENSO Season

El Niño and La Niña events are the dominant modes of natural climate variability on Earth, which is why the state of the tropical Pacific is continuously monitored. El Niños and La Niñas impact weather patterns globally. As a number … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 241 Comments

On Don Easterbrook’s Updated Projection

Don Easterbrook has updated his projection graph. Unfortunately, he did not update the graph that I complained about a few weeks ago, shown on the left in Figure 1. In that graph his projections started around 2010. He appears to … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO, Temperature | 149 Comments

If 99 Doctors Said…

We’ve seen the “If 99 doctors said…” argument, or facsimiles, used often by global warming enthusiasts in recent months. George Clooney used it when interviewed at the Britannia Awards. (See the Open Letter to Lewis Black and George Clooney.) James … Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus, Alarmism, Consensus | 224 Comments

Open Letter to Kevin Trenberth – NCAR

Date: January 31, 2014 Subject: Your Blog Post at SkepticalScience and an Invitation from WattsUpWithThat From: Bob Tisdale To: Kevin Trenberth – NCAR Dear Kevin: I note that you were co-author of the SkepticalScience blog post Warming oceans consistent with … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, Trenberth's missing heats | 152 Comments