What do you mean by “mean”: an essay on black boxes, emulators, and uncertainty

Guest post by Richard Booth, Ph.D References: [1] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/07/propagation-of-error-and-the-reliability-of-global-air-temperature-projections-mark-ii/ [2] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/15/why-roy-spencers-criticism-is-wrong   Introduction I suspect that we can all remember childish arguments of the form “person A: what do you mean by x, B: oh I really mean y, A: but what does y really mean, B: oh put in other words it means z,…

Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong

12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections in light of error propagation and uncertainty analysis, freely available here. Four days later, Roy Spencer posted a critique of my analysis at WUWT, here…

Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on August 22, 2019 by curryja | by Judith Curry My new manuscript is now available. A link to my new paper ‘Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?’ is provided here [worst case paper final (1)] A few words on the intended audience and motivation for writing…