Tamsin Edwards has a new essay on uncertainty, here is an excerpt:
About a month ago I was invited to represent the Cabot Institute at the All Parliamentary Party Climate Change Group (APPCCG) meeting on “Communicating Risk and Uncertainty around Climate Change”. All Party Groups are groups of MPs and Lords with a common interest they wish to discuss, who meet regularly but fairly informally. Here are the
APPGCC APPCCG register, blog, Twitter and list of events.
The speakers were James Painter (University of Oxford), Chris Rapley (UCL) and Fiona Harvey (The Guardian), and the chair was (Lord) Julian Hunt (UCL). Rather than write up my meeting notes, I’ll focus on the key points.
1. People have a finite pool of worry
2. People interpret uncertainty as ignorance
3. People are uncomfortable with uncertainty
4. People do accept the existence of risk
5. Scientists have little training
6. Journalists have little (statistical) training
7. “Newspaper editors are extremely shallow, generally”
8. There are many types of climate sceptic
9. Trust is important
Read all of the details behind the list here: http://blogs.plos.org/models/nine-lessons-and-carols-in-communicating-climate-uncertainty/