Catastrophic and Frightening Solar Storms: Miyake Events

Miyake events are believed to be several orders of magnitude greater than the Carrington Event. It is not clear what causes the event.

An X (formerly Twitter) thread by Erika @ExploreCosmos_

About 1300 years ago, an unexplained cosmic storm hit our planet. It left its imprints in the tree rings across the globe and the ice cores of Antarctica. Then, after 200 years, the event repeated, but this time it was 60% as strong. 1/ #Thread #SpaceWeather

When scientists analyzed them in detail, they found that six such cosmic storms have struck our planet over the past few thousand years. Today, these are known as the Miyake events. 2/ 

Miyake events are not linked to regular solar storms that hit our planet. They are much more powerful, and their origin remains a mystery. Studies show that such an event happens, on average about once every thousand years. 3/ 

If a Miyake event occurs today, it would be catastrophic. It would have a devastating impact on modern technology, including satellites, Internet cables, and even long distance power lines and transformers. 4/ 

But the most critical question is how do we know such an event happened in the past? What imprints had the Miyake events left on our planet?. Finally, and most importantly, what is the origin of the mysterious cosmic storm that seems to hit the Earth periodically? 5/ 

The answer to the mystery lies in tree rings. That may sound weird at first, but let’s look at what happens during cosmic radiation bombardment. When a large flux of high energy radiation slams into the Earth’s

atmosphere, it changes its chemical composition. 6/

Specifically, when charged cosmic particles interact with abundant nitrogen atoms in the atmosphere, they can convert them into an isotope of carbon. Radiocarbon 14 filters through the air, oceans, plants, and animals. 7/ 

This way it can produce an annual record of radiation in tree rings. Compared to naturally occurring carbon isotopes on Earth, radiocarbon is scarce. It forms only in the upper atmosphere when cosmic rays collide with nitrogen atoms, triggering a nuclear reaction. 8/ 

Trees are known to add a new growth ring annually. This means if we can connect the spikes in the quantity of radiocarbon with the growth rings in trees, it can pave the way to obtain a reliable record of radiation storms that might have impacted Earth thousands of years ago. 9/ 

In 2012, Japanese physicist F Miyake found something strange. She discovered a sudden single year jump in radiocarbon concentration around 774 CE in Japanese cedar rings. Then in 2013, another spike was noted in rings from 993 CE. 10/ 

Over the years, a sharp increase in radiocarbon levels has been found, accounting for six well studied and well accepted radiocarbon spikes. These events of a surge in carbon 14 production are known as the Miyake events. 11/ 

Many cosmic events can lead to these spikes. Since the Sun is the most dynamic celestial body in our neighborhood, solar flares may seem to be an obvious reason. Solar flares are the most explosive events occurring in the SS. They can be seen as bright spots on the sun. 12/ 

The flares represent an intense burst of radiation from the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. When the team used computer models to analyze tree ring data on the 6 known Miyake events, the results challenge the idea that solar flares are linked to these spikes. 

The team modeled the global carbon cycle to reconstruct the process over 10,000 years. In their paper, they produced detailed curves that could shed light on the relationship between the long … 14/

👉

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2022.0497

… suspected astrophysical influence of the solar activity cycle on modulating radiocarbon production in Earth’s atm. For example, in this graph, the area under each curve shows the density of radiocarbon for all the six known Miyake events, … 15/

.. and this curve shows the duration of each event.
It provided them with sufficient data to check if the carbon spike timing is linked with solar flares among the six known events. 16/

More data is available for the events of 774 and 993 CE. They seem globally coherent with evidence. In many trees in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The event of the year 774 is even more prominent, with the most available ring data. 17/ 

It appears to be more than 10 times as powerful as the Carrington Event of 1859. The Carrington Event was a powerful geomagnetic storm that caused Telegraph lines to burst into flames. It even led to planet wide auroras. 18/ 

The Carrington Event remains the most intense geomagnetic storm to date in recorded history. It occurred just a few months before the maxima of solar cycle 10. So as the sun approaches the peak activity of its current solar cycle in July of 2025, geomagnetic storms can … 19/ 

… become more frequent.
After analyzing the data for the event of 774, the team noted some inconsistencies. Although a fraction of trees in some parts of the world showed a sharp spike in radiocarbon for 1 year, the others displayed a delayed spike across two to three years. 

So the team concluded that instead of a single instantaneous explosion or flare, there might have been several small outbursts that caused a single Miyake event. The cause could be a supernova explosion. 21/ 

Astronomers have long speculated that a supernova may have been seen in 774 CE. This motivated them to look for more links between the radiocarbon spike and supernova explosions. However, it’s not straightforward. 22/

We have found supernovas with no radiation spikes and spikes with no length supernova. Further, some events might be related to super flares from M dwarf stars, but unfortunately there still doesn’t exist a simple explanation that can neatly explain the Miyake events. 23/ 

Based on previous records, a Miyake event may reoccur sooner or later. The problem is that a lot has changed since the last event. If a Miyake event equivalent to the one in the year 774 occurs now, it will lead to an internet apocalypse. 24/ 

In addition, infrastucture might get damaged and air travelers will be exposed to lethal radiation levels.
That’s why it’s essential to understand the nature of Miyake events and the exact physical phenomenon that causes them. 25/25 

*Note*

1/ This post has NOTHING to do with the recent activity of the Sun. It is just one of many posts I write.

2/ They are likely related to super-flares discovered on solar-like stars, but the exact cause remains unclear.

26/26 

Original thread here.

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Tom Halla
December 16, 2023 6:06 am

The Green Blob is still trying to tie Miyake Events to SUVs.

Bryan A
Reply to  Tom Halla
December 16, 2023 7:04 am

Easy solution…(easier than retooling society for ruinable energy) put everything in Faraday Cages
😉

John Hultquist
Reply to  Bryan A
December 16, 2023 8:24 am

I may need a Faraday Cage for a cheap radio. Newly installed LED ceiling light (apparently also cheap) wipes out the radio. I have light or music, not both.

Reply to  John Hultquist
December 16, 2023 8:52 am

re: “I may need a Faraday Cage”

Maybe some actual shielding would be called for, as a simple Faraday Cage judged to be inadequate.

Ron Long
Reply to  John Hultquist
December 16, 2023 9:08 am

What’s a “radio”?

Reply to  Ron Long
December 16, 2023 9:55 am

A wireless.

Reply to  Oldseadog
December 16, 2023 12:35 pm

Wireless? You mean a remote?
Kidding, of course, a wyliss’ remote consisted of a kick up the arse and “go tune to the news, boy!” Squeekgwrwrrgwrrandtheministerfortransport said today…

Mr.
Reply to  Oldseadog
December 16, 2023 2:22 pm

Back in the early 1950s when I was kid, our family of 5 used to sit in our little lounge room and watch the wireless.

We listened to to the radio plays of that era of course, but why did we all need to watch the wireless at the same time?

That, for me, is one of the great mysteries of human evolution.

Bryan A
Reply to  Mr.
December 16, 2023 2:35 pm

Family togetherness… Something lacking today with everyone glued to anti-social media on their (not very) smart phones and pads

Reply to  Mr.
December 16, 2023 3:57 pm

Anticipating the widespread introduction of the mass-produced television set? Some psychic bond between tv and radio enthusiasts producing similar behaviour? Or did you have one of those radio’s where the front panel lit up?

Reply to  Mr.
December 16, 2023 4:11 pm

I used to listen to classical music concerts broadcast by BBC over a shortwave radio station. The radio itself was never an article of focus. Perhaps this behavioral difference can be tied to different genealogical evolutions. The concept of a single event creation of life seems to me to be a somewhat flawed hypothesis. After all, quite a few multiple lines of evolution have been shown to produce extremely similar results.

Reply to  Mr.
December 18, 2023 5:11 pm

Oldseadog,
Was it to optimise the geometry of ears to source of sound for best hearing?
Geoff S

Erik Magnuson
Reply to  John Hultquist
December 16, 2023 10:14 am

The problem is with the ceiling light as even an expensive radio would pick up the interference, i.e. the Faraday cage would go on the ceiling light. Sounds like that light doesn’t meet FCC regulations on conducted emissions – in a perfect world the importer of the light would be fined out of business.

N.B. The worst case scenario is that if your ceiling causes interference to your neighbors radio, they could legally ask you to either fix the emission problem (there are tricks for doing so) or replace it with a ceiling light that does not cause interference.

Reply to  Erik Magnuson
December 16, 2023 4:12 pm

or maybe there is some bad wiring interacting with a good light bulb in an interesting way.

Reply to  John Hultquist
December 16, 2023 12:38 pm

Jim and Erik are right. Have you tried changing the bulb? If every light does it, you might want to look at the electrical grounding of your house. It sounds like you have none…

Bob Rogers
Reply to  cilo
December 16, 2023 3:46 pm

In the USA the ground wire is simply a redundant neutral. No properly functioning device uses the ground wire at all.

Reply to  Bob Rogers
December 16, 2023 4:19 pm

Not my area of expertise so I didn’t ask for a detailed explanation: when I ask the local grid power office if my experience since moving into my current house (built 80+ years ago), that quite a few LED and CF bulbs have expired after a short usage period, could be due to the local power system, I was told ‘no, but it could be due to the lack of adequate third wire grounding in your old house”.

Bob Rogers
Reply to  AndyHce
December 16, 2023 7:44 pm

I think there are a lot of widely held urban legends about what the ground wire does. In the USA, the ground and the neutral are tied together in the breaker box. Electrically, it doesn’t do anything unless the device shorts to a grounded component. In that case it keeps you from being electrocuted and quickly trips the breaker, potentially preventing a fire. If it’s a GFI breaker it will trip instantly.

Lightbulbs only have two contacts, so the third wire is irrelevant to their longevity.

Where I used to work we had a bizarre number of hard drive failures. The electrician was able to get the power company to install some sort of monitor on the meter. They determined that the transformer on the power pole was defective and installed a new one. No more HD failures.

Reply to  Bob Rogers
December 17, 2023 9:22 am

Here’s a few more things of strangeness:

  1. At a large insurance company, all the PC’s on one floor of a 30 story building would reboot at some time on Tuesdays. After a few weeks of fruitless investigations it was found that one of the workers was a pattern dresser and always wore nylon pantyhose on Tuesdays. When she got up for coffee break and touched the pot, every PC rebooted.
  2. At a large industrial site with over 50 outdoor IP cameras mounted on Pan-Tilt heads all the cameras would suddenly tilt downwards. The culprit turned out to be a misconfigured Ethernet switch which once a week tried to locate a backup server by broadcasting a query over the entire network. The PTZ firmware reacted to the broadcast by moving the head downwards.

Nowadays life can get very complicated…

Reply to  Bob Rogers
December 16, 2023 4:44 pm

G’Day Bob,

“No properly functioning device uses the ground wire at all.”

It’s that “properly functioning” bit that’s the kicker. When the GFI (Ground Fault Interrupter) detects a current in the ground wire it kills power to that device immediately.

Jim Masterson
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
December 17, 2023 11:20 am

“When the GFI (Ground Fault Interrupter) detects a current in the ground wire it kills power to that device immediately.”

No, that’s not how a GFCI works. A GFCI recepacle or circuit breaker compares the current on the hot wire to the current on the neutral. If it detects a difference greater than a few milliamps, it will trip. The assumption is that if there is a difference, then current must be going elsewhere–like through a person to ground.

And AFCIs are required in bedrooms, although the code changed to include them in more rooms, I believe.

Reply to  Jim Masterson
December 17, 2023 4:07 pm

G’Day Jim,

If it detects a difference greater than a few milliamps…”

I just did a DuckDuckGo search – you’re right.

Got my information in 1982 from a County building inspector. He was wrong and so was I. (I was building a house – “Miles Homes”. I’d previously wired three one-room cabins in the 70’s, ‘Green Tagged and SoCal Edison made the connections. None of those had water – till 1989.)

Jim Masterson
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
December 17, 2023 7:48 pm

Realize that a GFCI only detects leakage current. If you place yourself between the hot and the neutral, you’ll be electrocuted.

Reply to  Jim Masterson
December 17, 2023 8:50 pm

G’Day Jim,

I was introduced to 240V/50cps house wiring in 1949. Dad’s comment, “Pull the fuse, put it in your pocket, and hold it there.”

(When the U of Queensland Engineering Department moved from ‘downtown’ Brisbane to St Lucia dad designed their high-voltage lab for them.)

(Working with digital equipment – Boolean Algebra is strictly for the birds. Had to learn that in ’67, TI, Houston.)

Jim Masterson
Reply to  Tombstone Gabby
December 17, 2023 10:11 pm

I love Boolean Algebra!!!!

Reply to  Bob Rogers
December 17, 2023 2:11 am

Bob, I don’t know your field of expertise, but your answer indicates one of two things; either you are not well versed on the subject of electricity, or you just provided an excellent example of the decay of American Standards. The Ground wire specifically serves to drain transient noise, but I am sure America needs no technical assistance from an African, riiight?
…which tells me John should get someone in to look for a loose connection on the mains supply, distribution board or even the light fixture wiring, something seems to be sparking, his house probably got wired by a previously disadvantaged but currently policy-coddled pseudocitizen. Or someone with an Ivy League degree…in The Humanities, of course. (But then, your ‘engineers’ tie Earth to Neutral in the DB, so…)

Reply to  cilo
December 17, 2023 3:31 am

“but I am sure America needs no technical assistance from an African, riiight?”

Speaking as an American, I am happy to receive good advice from anyone, no matter where they may live.

MG
Reply to  cilo
December 17, 2023 5:58 am

Wow.
I don’t think I have ever seen such a combination of condescension and ignorance in one post. The grounding conductor does not “drain transient noise.” It would be interesting to see your technical explanation for how that works, including a circuit model. There are some handy free electronic circuit and electromagnetic simulation software tools available today so get to it and show us. The electronic conversion circuitry in cheap LED lighting is notorious for producing harmonics well into the RF spectrum. A loose connection has nothing to do with the problem. And yes we actual degreed electrical engineers do follow the electrical code and design our building wiring with the grounding and grounded circuit conductors bonded at the service panel. There are solid technical reasons for the practice. Spend some time looking at NFPA 70 (NEC). You might learn something. Retired power system engineer here, over 4 decades working in power substations and transmission lines at voltages up to 765kV. Walked the walk, not a BS’er like you. Back to the original post: tremendous progress has been made in the power industry in understanding and designing mitigation for both EMP and GIC issues. An internet search using appropriate search terms will yield literally hundreds of technical papers and articles detailing the progress. Also, I’m not sure how a solar event leads to an Internet “apocalypse” which means “revealing” as in the Biblical text “Revelation.” The Internet is pretty well revealed by now. Very little copper is used today for data transport over any significant distance. Fiber is immune to EMI and data centers are provided with mitigation and backup power. Satellite based systems likely have some vulnerabilities, but I am not knowledgeable in that area. As I look at the world today I see a lot of people who make a lot of money by spouting nonsense in the technical fields as well as in the climate arena, depending on the technically illiterate who swallow it whole without any discernment and/or critical thinking or even any effort to try to learn the facts. But I doubt this guy “cilo” makes any money spouting nonsense though, he’s not good enough at it to present even a veneer of knowledge. Regarding electrical phenomena, he isn’t even wrong.

Reply to  MG
December 17, 2023 9:41 am

Thanks for the beat-down. The guy with the original question, is a regular and seemingly intelligent cointributor, one assumes a priori that he has changed the light in question, instead of just complaining.As for the rest of your tirade, I spent my life working in various (electronic) fields, and in every single one of them, I ran into grounding problems…which I solved, as a professional, often by going directly against supercilious theories and know-better spinchterism like yours.!

Jim Masterson
Reply to  cilo
December 17, 2023 10:38 am

I’m an electrical engineer, but my specialty is digital electronics. We don’t automatically get training in the NEC which is the code usually followed in most jurisdictions. That is, the local authority usually passes laws that match what the NEC says, but that is not always true. I knew enough NEC to notice that my sub-panel was mis-wired. The ground and neutral are connected together in the main panel only. In a sub-panel, they are electrically separate for safety reasons. I had a licensed electrician fix the problem and had it inspected. The electrician did in a few minutes what would have taken me hours to do.

An electrician also found a problem with a ceiling box in the garage. I had problems with things burning out when plugged into the receptacle. It turned out to be a bad connection under a wire nut. Connection fixed–no more burnouts.

Reply to  John Hultquist
December 18, 2023 5:09 pm

Happens to me, also in Australia, 220 to 240 volt 50 Hz.
Geoff S

Ian_e
Reply to  Tom Halla
December 17, 2023 1:52 am

Nah, it’s Brexit!

December 16, 2023 6:12 am

re: “If a Miyake event equivalent to the one in the year 774 occurs now, it will lead to an internet apocalypse.

Promise?

abolition man
Reply to  _Jim
December 16, 2023 7:15 am

“an Internet apocalypse.”
Not just the Internet, a Miyake event would take out large portions of the electrical grid and high tech equipment! On the plus side, here in the US we could finally get the modern infrastructure we so desperately need; however many years, or decades, it takes to construct!

Reply to  abolition man
December 16, 2023 8:50 am

re: “Not just the Internet, a Miyake event would take out large portions of the electrical grid and high tech equipment!”

Are you aware of the methods and actions system operators would take in preparation for such an incoming event, or no?

Do you know what the term “islanding” would mean in such a context?

Gary Pearse
Reply to  _Jim
December 16, 2023 11:10 am

Can’t you be more informative, Jim. It’s a tradition on the World’s Most Popular science site.

Reply to  abolition man
December 17, 2023 3:37 am

Would Elon’s internet satellite network stand up to a Miyake event?

Reply to  _Jim
December 16, 2023 9:32 am

Would it also take out all AI?

Or is that too much to ask for?

Reply to  ToldYouSo
December 16, 2023 11:45 am

I’d settle for just one Al – the one called Gore.

Yooper
Reply to  Joe Gordon
December 17, 2023 5:30 am

Add one more: Kerry.

Reply to  _Jim
December 16, 2023 4:20 pm

If you don’t like it, you can change the channel (i.e. not use the internet).

rbabcock
December 16, 2023 6:13 am

It appears we aren’t on as stable of a planet as once thought. All the underground cities built way back when might have been for a very good reason.

Reply to  rbabcock
December 16, 2023 6:17 am

Like, Atlantis? (Bottom of the ocean anyone?) (/mild sarc)

Reply to  rbabcock
December 16, 2023 9:36 am

Well, the ETs certainly know better . . . you know, the ones currently living in the hollow Earth and basing their UFOs there.

As an aside, I find it amazing that the Greys and the Reptilians were able to form a truce so as to co-exist down there.

Plebney
Reply to  ToldYouSo
December 16, 2023 10:58 am

Wait. I thought the earth was flat. It’s hollow?

December 16, 2023 6:25 am

Betelgeuse blows, internet goes.

Reply to  PariahDog
December 16, 2023 7:16 am

see me above – did BeetleJuice have a twin?

1saveenergy
Reply to  Peta of Newark
December 16, 2023 10:21 am

BeetleJuice

Yes Cochineal (:-))

red juice, extracted from the insect Dactylopius coccus ( a scale insect rather than a beetle )

Curious George
Reply to  PariahDog
December 16, 2023 7:24 am

A nearby supernova can surely flood the Earth with radiation. Apparently, we don’t have enough of a climate change scare, so let’s call Miyake to help.

December 16, 2023 6:40 am

“Trees are known to add a new growth ring annually.”

Not all trees- many in the rain forests don’t have annual rings.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 16, 2023 6:42 am

Meaning, tropical rain forests- not the PNW rain forests and similar areas.

Plebney
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 16, 2023 10:59 am

Yes, not all Negros are black. There are albinos who appear white.

Bryan A
Reply to  Plebney
December 16, 2023 2:51 pm

I believe, in the south, if you have more than 1/16 black in your DNA you’re supposed to claim Afro-American Race as your ancestry no matter how close to 15/16 White you may be

Reply to  Bryan A
December 16, 2023 4:04 pm

Presumably, given that you’re using 16th’s, that’s an artificial construct based on you or I being descended from a Black family member rather than any identifiable genetic traits which would include every human being on the entire planet?

Reply to  Bryan A
December 16, 2023 4:24 pm

It is a disease of political philosophy that anyone would care to investigate theirself in such a case.

Reply to  Bryan A
December 17, 2023 3:42 am

Never heard of that before. I’m sure there is no actual law requiring a person to claim one ancestry over another.

December 16, 2023 6:44 am

If another Miyake event occurs, it will of course be blamed on fossil fuels.

abolition man
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
December 16, 2023 7:25 am

JZ,
The climate activists would be far too busy trying to resuscitate their smart phones! A Miyake event or a powerful CME would end the Climate Apocalypse Hoax forever, as most of humanity would be far too busy trying to survive without the luxuries that have led us to the moronic demonization of CO2!

December 16, 2023 7:14 am

Not a nearby Supernova then…..

Reply to  Peta of Newark
December 16, 2023 9:39 am

Please define “nearby”.

Reply to  Peta of Newark
December 17, 2023 3:51 am

Maybe a black hole merger with another black hole, or with a neutron star, or just a black hole feeding off other stars and the Earth just happens to be in the crosshairs of one of the black hole’s jets. Some of these events can have wideranging effects across galactic distances.

Walter Sobchak
December 16, 2023 8:05 am

“If a Miyake event equivalent to the one in the year 774 occurs now, it will lead to an internet apocalypse.”

A consummation devoutly to be wished.

Reply to  Walter Sobchak
December 16, 2023 4:06 pm

For. Please finish that sentence with a ‘for’. I find incomples sentences so frustrating. It’s like having a Christmas present and

Reply to  Richard Page
December 16, 2023 4:08 pm

Well that was totally ruined wasn’t it? Obviously that should be incomplete not incomples and I messed up the whole thing.

Reply to  Richard Page
December 17, 2023 3:57 am

Don’t worry about it, most of us can read between the lines, and most of us have made the same typing mistakes.

Reply to  Walter Sobchak
December 16, 2023 4:25 pm

so why are you here?

strativarius
December 16, 2023 8:16 am

It is not clear what causes the event. One reason for Parker Solar Probe ?

https://parkersolarprobe.jhuapl.edu/News-Center/Show-Article.php?articleID=193

Mann free science

antigtiff
December 16, 2023 8:33 am

A kilonova happened 3 to 4 million years ago according to sea floor deposits…it’s dangerous out there if you have a very long life time.

Rud Istvan
December 16, 2023 8:37 am

I am a cautious person. Had not heard of Miyake events. So researched before commenting.
Occur when a very high flux of high energy galactic or solar cosmic rays (traveling near the speed of light) interact with stratospheric nitrogen to produce free thermal neutrons who then attach to C12 or C13 to produce C14.
A good technical source is Nature’s Science Reports 11/19/2019, “Radiocarbon Production Events.”
But the X commenters claim that Miyake events are much stronger Carrington events is almost certainly wrong. Carrrington in 1859 was a solar CME (NOT comprising mostly cosmic rays) that created a geomagnetic storm. It produced NO uptick in C14, per the above cited paper that specifically investigated 1859 tree rings looking for elevated C14.

So we can relax. If a Carrington like CME occurs, the solar observatory satellites will give Earth about 24 hour notice, and we just unplug stuff.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 16, 2023 8:43 am

I wonder how wind turbines would fair. My guess is that they get fried.

Ian_e
Reply to  Nelson
December 17, 2023 1:56 am

And the solar panels?

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 16, 2023 9:46 am

An EMP-like pulse created by a massive CME hitting Earth’s atmosphere would incite stray voltages/currents in electrical and electronic devices, whether or not they were plugged into a wall socket (i.e., connected to the grid).

Whether or not such induced voltages/currents would damage any given electrical/electronic device depends on too many factors to list here.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  ToldYouSo
December 16, 2023 10:14 am

Basically induction depends on length of ‘wire’. Most semiconductor based stuff too short/small to generate much. My Bose surround sound system might have a problem. The grid would most definitely have problems, but the protecting high voltage SF6 circuit breakers operate VERY fast. Distribution systems don’t have that protection and would likely fry. Old telecom will have problems, but not the newer fiberoptic based stuff.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 16, 2023 2:15 pm

“Most semiconductor based stuff too short/small to generate much.”

Perhaps . . . but most semiconductor “stuff” is connected to power supplies that have many feet of wire wrapped into transformers and RF filters. And, again, voltages/currents (potentially at destructive levels) can be induced independent of a device being connected to a “fast” circuit breaker leading to/from the grid.

Yes, fiberoptic should generally be immune . . . except for the fact that it is eventually converted to electrical pulses traveling over copper wire. That is, neither your TV set nor your home computer is totally fiber optic.

Reply to  ToldYouSo
December 17, 2023 3:57 am

many feet of wire wrapped into transformers and RF filters

Devices with heavily coiled wires generate significant reverse emf which oppose the generated currents and make them immune to the effects of these solar events. Actually, it generally takes many kilometers of open wire (think “telegraph wires”) to see the destructive effect of these events. The critical reference field strength is 8Volt/km.

You’re confusing this phenomenon with electromagnetic pulses (EMP), which can operate in smaller spaces and destroy smaller devices, in the radio spectrum. More energetic gamma waves, beyond x-rays, have been detected from the Sun. But they’re easily absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere.

Reply to  Johanus
December 17, 2023 7:09 am

“You’re confusing this phenomenon with electromagnetic pulses (EMP), which . . .”

Not really. As I posted above at December 16, 2023 9:46 am, “An EMP-like pulse created by a massive CME hitting Earth’s atmosphere would incite . . .”

Here’s backing for my statement:
“A coronal mass ejection (CME) is an explosive outburst of solar wind plasma from the sun. The blast of a CME typically carries roughly a billion tons of material at speeds on the order of hundreds of kilometers per second. A CME contains radiation and powerful magnetic fields. These blasts originate in magnetically disturbed regions of the corona, the sun’s upper atmosphere, and can have effects similar to a man-made EMP.”
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/february/emp-or-solar-incident-could-result-blackout-warfare

Erik Magnuson
Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 16, 2023 10:19 am

14C production is much more likely to occur from a 14N(n,p)14C reaction than a 13C(n,gamma)14C reaction. There’s a lot more 14N in the atmosphere than 13C or even 12C.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 16, 2023 4:10 pm

Unless, of course, a Carrington and Miyake event coincide. But what would be the odds on that, eh?

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 16, 2023 4:27 pm

assuming one is plugged into some warning system

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 17, 2023 4:03 am

“Carrrington in 1859 was a solar CME (NOT comprising mostly cosmic rays) that created a geomagnetic storm. It produced NO uptick in C14, per the above cited paper that specifically investigated 1859 tree rings looking for elevated C14.”

I wondered why that comparison with the 774 event was missing in this article. It seemed to be highly relevant. As you have demonstrated. Thanks for digging into the details for us.

Gary Pearse
December 16, 2023 8:42 am

It sounds like an awful lot of carbon being manufactured in the atmosphere! Good to have the data to make an estimate of how many GTs of carbon that came out of “nowhere’ (conversion of N2). The doctrinaires of science who do voodoo with tree rings would never have discovered this (suggests centrally planned research).

I wonder if those rings are statistically thicker from CO2 fertilization? Dated 774 AD – maybe lifted us out of the Dark Ages of the 600s AD.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Gary Pearse
December 16, 2023 11:44 am

Can we not calculate the relative increase in CO2 added to the atmosphere by this event (we seem to be happy with calculations made routinely in ice cores for C¹²)? It would appear from the sharp jump in the year 774, that the reaction with O2 to form CO2 is close to instantaneous rather than being dragged out for multi-decade as is the truck of Doctrinaire Climate. What is the relative percentage of the C¹⁴ atom in the woody material? Wouldn’t there still be a signature of C¹⁴ in tree rings as this isotope decays over 10s of thousands of years? Wouldn’t a correction to ordinary carbon dating of artifacts predating 774 AD be necessary (making such artifacts much older than thought to be). Taking all items that have been carbon dated, should show a shadow cast before 774 AD of values missing.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
December 16, 2023 11:48 pm

What is particularly interesting are the studies investigating the Dark Age Grand Solar Minimum which, they argue, ended in 775 AD with a sudden burst of C14 which they link to increased solar activity. Just interesting to see how this develops.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Richard Page
December 17, 2023 4:40 pm

Wow. I was just speculating on this. I had no idea of this particular event. Maybe we better reopen the argument that keeps getting closed down about the sun being a significant player in earth temperature changes.

Reply to  Gary Pearse
December 18, 2023 11:26 am

Esper 2014 is a useful measure. A grand solar minimum series begins from 350 AD with the ‘Early Antique Little Ice Age’. The next centennial solar minimum begins 460 AD, which is then followed by a very warm period around 500 AD.

The next centennial minimum begins 575 AD, colder again, while the next centennial minimum from 695 AD looks much milder. Cold episodes after 500 are known as the ‘Late Antique Little Ice Age’.

The following 700’s look like the warmest part of the MWP, a very high solar period with positive Northern Annular Mode regimes which also drove strong cooling in Greenland (GISP2).

The centennial minimum from 795 was short but very deep, much like the one from 1115. The Norse made many raids 794-795.In the 1120’s big rivers in Europe and the Euphrates froze several times ( re, Michael the Syrian, and James A. Marusek)

ESPERETAL2014.PNG
Gary Pearse
Reply to  Ulric Lyons
December 19, 2023 2:56 pm

Thanks Ulric. It seems there is a lot more granularity to data than what one sees in the boatload of consensus literature overlaying these early years.

Plebney
December 16, 2023 11:05 am

Since these discoveries happened in 2012 and 2013, all radiocarbon dating prior to the last ten years is incorrect. Time to go back to the constant “than previously thought” articles for years to come.

Reply to  Plebney
December 16, 2023 11:50 pm

Nope, sorry – the fluctuations in carbon isotopes were well known prior to this and taken into account, even if the cause was attributed to something else.

Reply to  Richard Page
December 17, 2023 11:07 am

the fluctuations in carbon isotopes were well known prior to this and taken into account,…by adding error bars to indicate uncertainty, somewhat assisted by proxy records and arbitrary samples. The carbon-dating thing remains a craft, not science.

December 16, 2023 4:28 pm

Miyake events are believed to be several orders of magnitude greater than the Carrington Event.

Ilya Usoskin, Russian astronomer who currently runs the cosmic ray station at Oulu (and who has frequently locked horns with Leif Svalgaard here on WUWT) thinks Miyake has overestimated the strength of these events.

https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2013/04/aa21080-13/aa21080-13.html

Also, if these solar events are so powerful then they should trigger low-latitude aurorae, liked the ones observed as far south as Cuba by the Carrington event in 1859. But there doesn’t seem to be any historical reports of such aurorae at low latitudes, with the possible exception of the prophet Ezekiel’s vision in the Bible, whose observations are consistent with observed features (sights and sounds) of aurorae.

I used to think Ezekiel’s vision was triggered by the 663 BCE solar event. But Ezekiel’s prophecies were mostly written in the 1590’s BCE, about 60 years earlier than the 663 BCE Miyake event. So now, I think this paper offers a better explanation, citing a “Sterno-Etrussia” magnetic pole excursion as the cause, which is more consistent with 663 BCE date.

Reply to  Johanus
December 16, 2023 4:45 pm

1590’s BCE

Typo, I meant 590’s. But, more accurately, Ezekiel’s span of prophecies has been calculated to have occurred over the course of about 22 years, starting in 593 BCE to 571 BCE.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezekiel#Chronology

Yooper
Reply to  Johanus
December 17, 2023 6:00 am

I asked ChatGPT when EC started: OK, I didn’t know that CE was the same as AD. Now back to my original question, doesn’t 598 BCE equal 598 BC?

ChatGPT
Yes, you’re correct! BCE (Before Common Era) and BC (Before Christ) refer to the same time period. So, 598 BCE is indeed the same as 598 BC—they both represent the years before the start of the Common Era or before the birth of Christ.

Reply to  Yooper
December 17, 2023 10:17 am

Yes BCE=BC. But “BC” is somewhat a misnomer because most historians now believe Yeshua bin Josef was born between 6-4 BC.

Jim Masterson
Reply to  Johanus
December 17, 2023 12:24 pm

It’s the problem when dealing with different calendars. We aren’t exactly sure when George Washington was born, because the British Empire converted from the Julian Calendar to the Gregorian Calendar during his lifetime. Does his birthday refer to the Julian Calendar or did they update it (correctly) to the Gregorian Calendar?

December 18, 2023 7:21 am

The average period is 863 years, from the same cycle which governs grand solar minima series, and also governs the more active solar periods like the late 700’s.

993 AD + 863 = 1856, 3 years before the Carrington event.
774 AD + 863 = 1637, large aurora events were seen in China around 1638 and 1649.
663 BC + (3*863) = 1927, with major storms in 1921 and 1938:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_storms
5259 BC + (7*863) = 783 AD, 9 years after the 774 storm.

The great aurora of 1192 + 863 is 2055.

The 774 AD storm occurred on the same configuration of the three inner gas giant planets as with the heatwaves of 1934, 1949, 1976, 2003, and 2018, and very close to a sunspot cycle maximum. There would have also been critical inner planet alignments to trigger the event.

December 18, 2023 8:27 am

There are many kinds of celestial events that are eruptive in nature, including but not restricted to supernovae and energy bursts from black holes absorbing matter.

Some of these, e.g., black hole energy burst are capable of sterilizing Earth if Earth happens to be in the path when it reaches our solar system.

Now, only if there is a geological record they can identify for these events, then perhaps these events would also be recorded by the rocky bodies in our solar system.

December 18, 2023 11:45 am

“A Great solar storm (comparable in size to solar storm of September 1859) will cause an increase in the number of
cases of heart attacks, strokes, and cardiac arrest.”

https://projectcamelot.org/Solar_Storm_Threat_Analysis_James_Marusek_Impact_2007.pdf