Scafetta prediction widget update

By Dr. Nicola Scafetta It is time to update my widget comparing the global surface temperature, HadCRUT3 (red and blue), the IPC 2007 projection (green) and my empirical model (black thick curve and cyan area) based on a set of detected natural harmonics (period of approximately: 9.1, 10-11, 20 and 60 years) which are based…

Scafetta on his latest paper: Harmonic climate model versus the IPCC general circulation climate models

Guest Post by Dr. Nicola Scafetta Herein, I would like to briefly present my latest publication that continues my research about the meaning of natural climatic cycles and their implication for climate changes: Nicola Scafetta, “Testing an astronomically based decadal-scale empirical harmonic climate model versus the IPCC (2007) general circulation climate models” Journal of Atmospheric…

Loehle and Scafetta calculate 0.66°C/century for AGW

Guest post by Craig Loehle and Nicolas Scafetta Human Effect on Climate Clearly Detected (but is 0.66 deg C/100yr since ~1950!) Loehle, C. and N. Scafetta. 2011. Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Historical Time Series. Open Atmospheric Science Journal 5:74-86. The study is available via free open access at http://benthamscience.com/open/toascj/articles/V005/74TOASCJ.htm (links to full…

Scafetta on 60 year climate oscillations

    People send me stuff, my email is like a firehose, with several hundred messages a day, and thus this message was delayed until sent to me a second time today.  I’m breaking my own rule on Barycentrism discussions, because this paper has been peer reviewed and published in Elsevier. George Taylor, former Oregon…

New Scafetta paper – his celestial model outperforms GISS

Dr. Nicola Scafetta writes: Anthony,   I believe that you may be interested in my last published work. This paper suggests that climate is characterized by oscillations that are predictable. These oscillations appear to be linked to planetary motion. A climate model capable of reproducing these oscillation would outperform traditional climate models to reconstruct climate oscillations.…

Dr. Nicola Scafetta summarizes “why the anthropogenic theory proposed by the IPCC should be questioned”

Dr. Nicola Scafetta has written an extensive summary of the state of climate science today. He’s done some very extensive analysis of the solar contribution that bears examination. Pay particular attention to this graph from page 49: WUWT readers may remember him from some previous papers and comments he’s written that have been covered here:…

Scafetta-Wilson Paper: Increasing TSI between 1980 and 2000 could have contributed significantly to global warming during the last three decades

Via Roger Pielke Sr. climatescience blog: A New Paper On Solar Climate Forcing “ACRIM-Gap And TSI Trend Issue Resolved Using A Surface Magnetic Flux TSI Proxy Model By Scafetta Et Al 2009 At the December 2008 NRC meeting “Detection and Attribution of Solar Forcing on Climate” [see] there was extensive criticism by Gavin Schmidt and…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #259

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President Sea Level Rise: One disturbing activity by some government entities is using the highly speculative projections of future sea level rise to frighten the public The purpose appears to be to promote the false belief that humans…

The Bray (Hallstatt) Cycle

Guest essay by Andy May and Javier The evidence for a persistent irregular climate cycle with a period of 2400 ±200 years is strong. There is compelling evidence of a solar cycle of about the same length and phase; suggesting that the solar cycle might be causing the climate cycle. We will present a summary…

Solar variability and the Earth’s climate

Guest essay by Andy May According to Javier and the IPCC, total solar radiation output varies little, less than 0.1%. This is only 0.7 to 1.4 Watts/m2 compared to an IPCC anthropogenic effect estimate of 2.3 Watts/m2. They believe it has a small effect on the Earth’s climate. Others, like Abdussamatov, think solar output is…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #241

The Week That Was: 2016-09-17 (September 17, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Vale Roger Cohen PhD RIP: We have lost a friend. Among his many accomplishments, Roger Cohen was a leader of the Exxon research team who…

Chinese Sunspots

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See also the new Update at the end of the post.] I see that there is a new paper from China causing a great disturbance in the solar force … as discussed here on WUWT, the claim is that the El Nino Modoki Index, which is an index of sea…

Cosmic Disconnections

I read yesterday that someone had supposedly provided evidence in support of Svensmark’s hypothesis that cosmic rays affect the weather. So I went to look it up. The study is called Cloud cover anomalies at middle latitudes: links to troposphere dynamics and solar variability, by S. Veretenenkoa and M. Ogurtsova, paywalled here. Let’s look at this…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #211

The Week That Was: 2015-12-26 (December 26, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) COP-21 – Smoke and Mirrors: The Conference of Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations’ Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) ended with significant…

A Short Summary of Soon, Connolly and Connolly, 2015; “Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th Century”

Guest essay by Andy May Soon, Connolly and Connolly (2015) is an excellent paper (pay walled, for the authors preprint, go here) that casts some doubt about two critical IPCC AR5 statements, quoted below: The IPCC, 2013 report page 16: “Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely…

23! New! Papers!

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Pierre Gosselin’s site, NoTricksZone, he’s trumpeting the fact that there are a bunch of new papers showing a solar effect on the climate. The headline is Already 23 Papers Supporting Sun As Major Climate Factor In 2015 …Burgeoning Evidence No Longer Dismissible!, complete with exclamation mark … sigh.…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #188

The Week That Was: 2015-07-18 (July 18, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)   The Sun? Last week’s TWTW discussed a new paper published by the Royal Astronomical Society announcing a “new model of the Sun’s…

22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths

Here are 22 good reasons not to believe the statements made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guest essay by Jean-Pierre Bardinet. According to the official statements of the IPCC “Science is clear” and non-believers cannot be trusted. Quick action is needed! For more than 30 years we have been told that we…

Climate Dialogue about the sun

Guest blog by Marcel Crok Over at Climate Dialogue we have started a new discussion about the influence of the sun on the climate. People familiar with climate discussions know that the sun has been and still is a popular argument to explain at least part of the warming since 1750. This has to do…

The Empire of the Viscount Strikes Back!

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Professor Shaun Lovejoy, as he continues the active marketing of his latest paper purporting to prove that “the world desperately needs to drop the skepticism and change course – humanity’s future depends on it”, writes in a hilarious op-ed at livescience.com: “The majordomo of this deniers’ hub [Watts Up With…

New paper: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate

Just two explanatory variables (GHG and AMO) still account for 93% of the temperature variance. Dr. Leif Svalgaard sends word of this article in Geophysical Research letters by Petr Chylek, James D. Klett, Glen Lesins, Manvendra K. Dubey and Nicolas Hengartner Article first published online: 5 MAR 2014 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059274 Abstract A multiple linear regression analysis…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

The Week That Was: 2013-12-14 (December 14, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project ################################################### Quote of the Week: • “It is hard to overstate the damage done in the recent past by people who thought they knew more about the world than they really did.” – British Economist…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

The Week That Was: 2013-10-12 (October 12, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President. ################################################### Quote of the Week: Political language “is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” — George…

Chylek et al 2013 shows a linkage between US Southwest climate and AMO/PDO cycles

This paper suggests that the CMIP5 models’ (which IPCC relies upon) predicted US SW temperature sensitivity to the GHG has been significantly overestimated by about a factor of two. Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past, present, and future Petr Chylek •    Manvendra K. Dubey • Glen…

If climate data were a stock, now would be the time to SELL

Using a financial markets’ trend-analyses tool to assess temporal trend-changes in global surface temperature anomalies (GSTA). Guest essay by David Dohbro Heated debates (pun intended) are currently on going regarding if the Earth’s surface temperatures continue to rise, have remained steady, or are decreasing over the past decade or so. To argue for or against…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

The Week That Was: 2013-08-31 (August 31, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project ################################################### Quote of the Week: Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.—Voltaire [H/t J.A. Curry & P.J. Webster] ################################################### Number of the Week: 22 ################################################### THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice…

Congenital Cyclomania Redux

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, I wasn’t going to mention this paper, but it seems to be getting some play in the blogosphere. Our friend Nicola Scafetta is back again, this time with a paper called “Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs”. He’s…

Cook’s 97% consensus study falsely classifies scientists’ papers according to the scientists that published them

UPDATE: More inconsistency: Cook survey included 10 of my 122 eligible papers. 5/10 were rated incorrectly. 4/5 were rated as endorse rather than neutral. — Richard Tol (@RichardTol) May 22, 2013 =========================================== When asked about the categorizations of Cook et al, – “It would be incorrect to claim that our paper was an endorsement of…

Updates to and ENSO Observations from the WUWT Ocean Reference Page

Image Credit: Monterey Marine Meteorology Division – HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” In making several updates to the WUWT Ocean Reference Page I observed something in the Sea Surface Temperature animation above, that I’ve seen a few times before. More about that below, but first the reason for the…

Introducing The New WUWT “Extreme Weather” Reference Page

(Photo credits: NOAA) By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” We are pleased to introduce WUWT’s newest addition, the WUWT “Extreme Weather” Reference Page. Realizing the difficulty in selling “Global Warming” when the globe hasn’t warmed in the last 16 years, the Warmists are now attempting to convince the public that CO2 has somehow caused “Extreme…

Research

Potential Climatic Variables Page Scafetta’s Solar-Lunar Cycle Forecast -vs- Global Temperature Spencer and Braswell Papers

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project ################################################### Quote of the Week: “The number of those who reason well in difficult matters is much smaller than the number of those who reason badly. If reasoning were like carrying burdens, where several horses will carry more sacks of grain than one…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

Quote of the Week: “I am always happy to be in the minority.  Concerning the climate models, I know enough of the details to be sure that they are unreliable. They are full of fudge factors that are fitted to the existing climate, so the models more or less agree with the observed data. But…

Crowdsourced Climate Complexity – Compiling the WUWT Potential Climatic Variables Reference Page

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments, which began on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and grew on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 and January 21st, 2012, I have been compiling a summary of all potential climatic variables…

Potential Climatic Variables Page

Compiled by WUWT regular “Just The Facts” This list of Potential Climatic Variables was built with the help of a multitude of WUWT reader comments, beginning on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and growing on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 and January 21st, 2012. Your help in…