The Week That Was: 2023-12-30 (December 30, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “The most savage controversies are those about matters as to which there is no good evidence either way.” – Bertrand Russell, “An Outline of Intellectual Rubbish”
Number of the Week:Zero for storage or backup
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Physical science advances in several ways. One major type of advance is by improvements in understanding nature, A second type is dispelling false concepts with physical evidence. This TWTW will focus on what may be the most significant improvements in understanding the role of greenhouse gases in influencing temperatures covered in TWTW in 2023. Advances in dispelling false concepts will come in January.
In addition, TWTW will discuss a recent paper by Ross McKitrick demonstrating what statistical experts and econometricians have long known – certain types of statistical techniques can produce biased results including one now fashionable in the climate community.
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Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere: The greenhouse gases were termed by John Tyndall who used early instruments to measure how different frequencies electromagnetic radiation (light) are affected by certain atmospheric gases in 1859. Since Newton showed that light split into colors by a prism could be recombined to white light, many scientists have explored spectroscopy. However, Tyndall identified that certain gases, particularly water vapor, interfere with the transmission of infrared radiation from the surface to space sufficiently to keep the land masses of Earth from entering a deep freeze at night, killing young life. This answered the question: “Given its distance from the sun, why is Earth warm enough to support diverse, complex life?”
Decades of laboratory experiments ensued and decades of speculation about what was happening in the atmosphere. Perhaps the most influential speculation prevalent today is the speculation that the small amount of warming caused by increasing a minor greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), will cause a significant increase in the major greenhouse gas, water vapor (H2O), leading to a significant warming. This speculation was embodied in the influential 1979 Charney Report, which was influenced by modern numerical weather modeling. Certain theorists speculated that the techniques of numerical weather modeling can be expanded into climate modeling. Later, Chaos Theory showed that long-term weather forecasting is unreliable, even only two weeks out, and forecasting must be updated frequently. This is a requirement that many climate modelers largely ignore in making forecasts lasting decades to centuries.
After World War II, the US Air Force was interested in discovering how greenhouse gases in the atmosphere influence infrared radiation and financed the development of databases combining both laboratory experiments and observations from instruments on weather balloons measuring temperature, barometric pressure, and humidity (which can be used to calculate water vapor). The most detailed of these databases is the high-resolution transmission molecular absorption database (HITRAN). “HITRAN is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters that a variety of computer codes use to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light in the atmosphere.”
On March 3, AMO physicists William van Wijngaarden and William Happer posted their “Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer” since renamed to “The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere” using the HITRAN database. Discussed in several TWTWs starting last April 1, this paper is likely the most significant new work in climate science discussed by TWTW in 2023.
Among the important issues discussed in this paper and largely ignored by the climate community are the role of water vapor in convection, the sharp reduction in water vapor with altitude (in the idealized atmosphere), and the importance of saturation and the extent to which water vapor interferes with the ability of other greenhouse gases to block infrared radiation.
Water vapor, H2O, has a molar mass of 18 grams/mole (g/mol), while the dominant gas in the atmosphere which is nitrogen, N2, has a molar mass of 28 g/mol and the second most dominant gas oxygen, O2, has a molar mass of 32 g/mol. Even argon which less prevalent than water vapor has a molar mass of 40 g/mol. Water vapor is buoyant, leading to convection in the atmosphere which transfers heat absorbed on the surface when water evaporates into water vapor (latent heat) to the upper troposphere where it condenses into clouds releasing sensible heat and eventually falls as rain. Even though radiation transfer occurs at all levels in the atmosphere, convection is the most important mechanism in the troposphere. At higher altitude, water vapor freezes out. In their paper van Wijngaarden and Happer have a simplified model showing this. The altitude at which water freezes out is called the tropopause which is about 60,000 feet (18km) above the equator, 20,000 feet (6 km) above the poles and averages about 36,000 feet (11 km).
In the standardized atmosphere, water vapor drops from about 7750 parts per million (ppm) at sea level to about 4 ppm above the tropopause. [TWTW thinks 7750 ppm is far too low and it may be closer to 17700 ppm.] Thus, water vapor’s importance as a greenhouse gas declines with altitude. Carbon dioxide concentration does not decline in the atmosphere. However, it is secondary to water vapor until above 36,000 feet (11 km), where the atmosphere is thin, and the warming effect of blocking infrared radiation is greatly reduced. This reduction in blocking also applies to minor greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Only ozone (O3), created by solar radiation, increases with altitude, with greatest concentration from 20 to 40 km (65,000 to 130,000 feet).
In their calculations Van Wijngaarden and Happer demonstrate the concept of saturation over the hundreds of thousands of frequencies. If a frequency is already saturated, adding more greenhouse gas does not influence the blocking in that frequency. Water vapor covers the broadest range of frequencies, greatly reducing the effectiveness of carbon dioxide, and largely eliminating the effectiveness of methane and nitrous oxide. Thus, efforts to eliminate livestock as producers or methane, and artificial fertilizers as a source of nitrous oxide, are destructive and have no value in preventing greenhouse gas warming. Carbon dioxide has a limited range of frequencies in which it is an effective greenhouse gas. Adding more CO2 to today’s atmosphere has a minor impact on temperatures. Ozone, which is formed by the sun high in the atmosphere, has a negligible impact in warming the atmosphere. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer and TWTWs from April 1 to April 15https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%204-1-23.pdf
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UAH Temperature Trends Confirmed: The bulk of the greenhouse effect occurs in the lower and mid-troposphere, where water vapor dominates. Researchers Roy Spencer and John Christy have compiled atmospheric temperature trends of the lower and mid-troposphere covering the last 45 years, since December 1978. The calculations are based on satellite measurements of the changing brightness of Earth’s atmosphere. Organizations such as NASA dismiss satellite measurements because the data has been compiled from more than 16 different satellites, subject to orbital drift, declining altitude. This complicates the calculations required to convert the measurements into temperature readings. (Spencer and Christy took note of these problems and have been correcting for the effects since the 1980s.) However, if the observations are consistent and the calculations have are verified, satellite observations provide the most comprehensive measurements of Earth’s temperature trends ever compiled. With changing instrumentation and changing instrument locations, with no calibration or standardization periods from one dataset to another, surface observations are neither consistent nor comprehensive.
On March 3, JGR Atmosphere published a paper from NOAA atmospheric scientists led by Cheng-Zhi Zou of the Center for Satellite Applications and Research “Mid-Tropospheric Layer Temperature Record Derived From Satellite Microwave Sounder Observations With Backward Merging Approach.” The abstract states:
“We present a new version (v5.0) of the NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) mid-tropospheric temperature (TMT) time series. This data set uses a backward-merging approach to intercalibrate 16 satellite-based microwave sounding records. The instrument observations included those from the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) during 1979–2004, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) during 1998–2017, and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) from 2011 to present. A TMT time series during 2002–present based on satellite microwave observations in stable sun-synchronous orbits was used as a reference in the backward merging process in which earlier satellites were adjusted and merged to the reference. Observations from earlier satellites were recalibrated to remove their calibration drifting errors relative to the reference using sequential overlapping observations. This included removal of spurious warming drifts in the MSU observations onboard NOAA-11, NOAA-12, and NOAA-14 and a spurious cooling drift in the NOAA-15 AMSU-A observations. Temperature changes resulting from diurnal sampling drifts were corrected using an observation-based semi-physical model developed in this study. Other adjustments included channel frequency differences between MSU and AMSU-A companion channels and instrument blackbody warm target effect on observed radiances. These adjustments resulted in inter-consistent TMT records spanning MSU, AMSU-A, and ATMS. The merged time series produced a global mean TMT trend of 0.092 ± 0.043 K/decade during 1979–2021 and a total tropospheric trend of 0.142 ± 0.045 K/decade after removal of a stratospheric cooling effect in TMT. Remarkably, the total tropospheric trends during the latest half period were nearly doubled the earlier half period over the global ocean.”
The paper verifies the calculations by Spencer and Christy that for the entire satellite record the temperature trend in 0.14°C (0.25°F) per decade from all sources including greenhouse gases and increasing water vapor from El Niños and submerged geothermal activity. Therefore, there is no climate crisis brought on by greenhouse gases; and models used to forecast future warming due to greenhouse gases fail miserably.
Interestingly this paper received little notice except for frivolous criticism which has been refuted by statistician Ross McKitrick. Except for Paul Homewood and McKitrick, few climate commentators mentioned it. As McKitrick titled an article in the Canadian Financial Post: “The important climate study you won’t hear about challenges trends in climate simulations.” See the April 15 TWTW https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%204-15-23.pdf and https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/49/which-measurement-is-more-accurate-taking-earths-surface-temperature-from-the-ground-or-from-space/#:~:text=Satellites%20don’t%20directly%20measure,brightness%20data%20into%20temperature%20information.
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Plate Tectonics: TWTW considers diverse video presentations particularly significant; one by Geoscientist Tom Gallagher and the second by Professor Wyss Yim of University of Hong Kong. Both dealt with physical evidence showing that plate tectonics changes climate.
On September 11, 2020, the journal, Science, by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) published an article written by Thomas Westerhold and over 20 European scientists titled, “An astronomically dated record of Earth’s climate and its predictability over the last 66 million years.” The data is based on using different isotopes of oxygen (O16 and O18) to estimate temperature and different isotopes of Carbon (C12 and C13) to estimate sources of change in carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. The abstract of the paper states:
“Much of our understanding of Earth’s past climate comes from the measurement of oxygen and carbon isotope variations in deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Yet, long intervals in existing records lack the temporal resolution and age control needed to thoroughly categorize climate states of the Cenozoic era and to study their dynamics. Here, we present a new, highly resolved, astronomically dated, continuous composite of benthic foraminifer isotope records developed in our laboratories. Four climate states—Hothouse, Warmhouse, Coolhouse, Icehouse—are identified on the basis of their distinctive response to astronomical forcing depending on greenhouse gas concentrations and polar ice sheet volume. Statistical analysis of the nonlinear behavior encoded in our record reveals the key role that polar ice volume plays in the predictability of Cenozoic climate dynamics.”
The Cenozoic Period goes from today to 66 million years ago. Isotopes of oxygen are commonly used to estimate surface temperature of oceans and ice sheets, such as Greenland and Antarctica. Having fewer neutrons, thus less dense, O16 evaporates more easily than O18 which has two more neutrons. Similarly, O18 condenses more rapidly than O16 and falls out earlier as rain or snow. Thus, temperature trends can be determined by ratios of O18 to O16.
Isotopes of Carbon are used to determine the likely source. Volcanoes have a higher ratio of C-13 to C-12 than plants (wood) or fossil fuels. Thus, one can determine if the source of carbon dioxide is volcanic or from fires. [Carbon 14 is ignored because, although it is regularly created in the atmosphere by protons ejected from the sun, it has a half-life that is noticeably short compared to geologic time.]
The data was taken from the multinational Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) running from 1985 to 2004. It was funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) and 22 international partners with the purpose of conducting basic research into the history of the ocean basins. The summary of one segment, called Leg 198, begins: [Boldface added]
“The mid-Cretaceous (~125-85 Ma) and early Paleogene (~65-34 Ma) were characterized by some of the most equable climates of the Phanerozoic and are among the best known ancient “greenhouse” climate intervals. In addition, these intervals contain some of the most abrupt and transient climatic changes in the geologic record, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the mid-Maastrichtian deepwater event (MME), and the early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE1a). These critical transitions involved dramatically modified oceanic circulation patterns, profound changes in geochemical cycling, and abrupt turnover in marine biotas. Recent ocean drilling efforts have led to profound advances in our understanding of the ocean and climate dynamics of a warm Earth; however, we have yet to gain a firm knowledge of how atmospheric or deep-ocean circulation operates in the apparent absence of substantial thermal gradients, how rapid removal of important elements such as nutrients in some of these events is maintained for a long period of time, and exactly how environmental changes cause extinction and speciation of marine biotas.”
The data has recently been criticized as not giving precise estimates of temperatures. However, that is not the issue. What is the issue is consistency of the data. If the data are consistent then generalizations can be developed from them. These are the most consistent data TWTW has seen covering the past 67 million years of Earth’s history. Gallagher unravels the data and develops a better explanation for changing climate than changing carbon dioxide. For periods of tens of millions of years, temperatures were roughly constant while CO2 concentrations changed dramatically.
Gallagher explains the four distinct periods in the Westerhold paper as Four Climate States:
• Hot house: 56 to 47 million years ago (Mya) more than 10 C above today
• Warm house: 66 to 56 Mya and 47 to 34 Mya
• Cool house 34 to 3.3 Mya Warmer than today
• Icehouse: 5 C below with beginning of the Pleistocene (closing of the Panama seaway 3.3 million years ago).
In short, the changing land masses caused the current Thermohaline Circulation. He points to the age of the ice masses as evidence of the Icehouse Earth. The oldest ice found in various locations is:
• Rockies, Alps, New Zealand, Patagonia, and Alaska, mostly Little Ice Age (1000 years old)
• Canadian Arctic and Greenland, 120,000 years
• Himalayas 600,000 years.
• Antarctica 800,000 to 1.2 million years
It was not until the Panamanian Seaway was blocked, that the Earth experienced dramatic changes in glaciation, coinciding with the Milankovitch Cycles. The ice record over the past 900,000 years shows that the dominant periods of the cycles have changed, with maximum duration of severe ice stretching from about 41,000 years long to 100,000 years long.
To Gallagher, the following cause Climate Change:
• Solar cycles – The sun controls the energy system; Solar cycles govern longer-term timing of climate change.
• Oceans control energy storage • Water in all phases drives the energy cycle of Climate.
• Continental Drift has shaped major steps in climate change over the past 67 million years.
• CO2 and Temperature proxies do not correlate in paleoclimate data.
• Until recently, CO2 was produced by volcanoes and oceans, with volcanoes heavy in C-13
• Catalysts such as Clouds (Albedo) and vegetation modify cycles.
What is important here is that the global climate models start about 1850 or 1870. Their construction includes no prolonged cold periods, which have been Earth’s dominant climate condition for the past 3 million years. See the July 15 TWTW, https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%207-15-23.pdf
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Current Plate Tectonics: In November Professor Wyss Yim, University of Hong Kong gave a talk to a group in Australia detailing recent submarine volcanic activity which, in the Pacific has all too frequently been confused with El Niños, due to the surface water warming. Submarine volcanic activity in the Atlantic off El Hierro in the Canary Islands dramatically warmed a small area of water there, prompting Al Gore to declare that carbon dioxide is causing the oceans to boil, which is absurd. A more complete discussion of Yim’s presentation is in the December 2 TWTW, https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%20Dec%202.pdf
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Statistical Games: A very influential paper in the climate community was one in 1999 by Allen and Tett that claimed it met the conditions of the Gauss Markov theorem for making reliable assessments of probability, namely, they are BLUE – Best, Linear, Unbiased, Efficient (close to true value), estimates. In 2021 Ross McKitrick published a paper in the same journal, Climate Dynamics, showing that the Allen and Tett paper does not meet the conditions of the Gauss Markov Theory. TWTW has not seen any publication refuting McKitrick’s assertion.
Now McKitrick has had a paper published in Environmetrics challenging the use of Total Least Squares which creates biased results in making assertions that weather events are caused by changes in carbon dioxide. It is amazing that given the hundreds of millions being spent on climate change studies, organizations fail to include statisticians and econometricians who have dealt with statistics and biased statistics for hundreds of years. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2023/TWTW%2012-31-22.pdf
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Number of the Week: Zero for storage. At no time on December 21 did Renewables, wind and solar (large hydro separate), exceed Natural Gas generation plus Imports. Renewables cannot even meet current demand; how can it replenish batteries? Is the government solution to close California to electricity in the winter? See http://www.caiso.com/todaysoutlook/pages/supply.aspx and go to December 21.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
A tree ring record you weren’t supposed to see
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
“But 20 years ago, Stephen McIntyre of hockey stick-busting fame heard about some Alaskan tree ring data being hidden by a scientist named Gordon Jacoby and tried unsuccessfully to get his hands on it. Jacoby died in 2015 and McIntyre just stumbled on an online archive where Jacoby had quietly posted the secret record instead of prudently deleting it. And it blows the IPCC version of climate history to smithereens.”
“The bottom line is that next time you see a hockey stick graph, remember they threw out most of the data because it didn’t confirm their preconceptions and if you ask to see it they won’t show it to you; though if you’re very lucky they’ll drop it somewhere and forget they did.”
Censorship
Measuring Censorship in Science Is Challenging. Stopping it Is Harder Still
By Musa al-Gharbi and Nicole Barbaro, Via WUWT, Dec 29, 2023
Link to paper: Prosocial motives underlie scientific censorship by scientists: A perspective and research agenda
By Cory J. Clark, et al, PNAS, Nov 20, 2023
From the abstract: “Popular narratives suggest that scientific censorship is driven by authoritarian officials with dark motives, such as dogmatism and intolerance. Our analysis suggests that scientific censorship is often driven by scientists, who are primarily motivated by self-protection, benevolence toward peer scholars, and prosocial concerns for the well-being of human social groups.”
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Mandatory Indoctrination: UC San Diego’s Climate Change Education Requirement
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 24, 2023
“UC San Diego’s JTCCER [Jane Teranes Climate Change Education Requirement] is another in a long line of troubling steps towards ideological uniformity and intellectual conformity.
[SEPP Comment: Promoting ideology over inquiry. According to a post by Scripps: “Jane Teranes, a teaching professor and paleoclimatologist who provided a bridge for UC San Diego undergraduates to engage with Scripps Institution of Oceanography science, died July 2, 2022, after a brief illness. She was 52.”] https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/jane-teranes-1969-2022
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
TLS (Total Least Squares) Overstates Climate Fingerprinting Coefficients When Forcing Signals Are Negatively Correlated
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Dec 18, 2023
From Climate Etc: Climate attribution method overstates “fingerprints” of external forcing
By Ross McKitrick, Climate Etc., Dec 18, 2023
Link to paper: Total least squares bias in climate fingerprinting regressions with heterogeneous noise variances and correlated explanatory variables
By Ross McKitrick, Environmetrics, Dec 12, 2023
Ross McKitrick: The only thing wrong with the globalist climate agenda — the people won’t have it
Phasing out fossil fuels is going to cost way more than ordinary people will accept. Delegates to COP28 clearly didn’t understand that
By Ross McKitrick, Special to Financial Post, Dec 20, 2023 [H/t Ron Clutz]
“In their own words, some 90,000 government functionaries aspire to oversee and micromanage agriculture, finance, energy, manufacturing, gender relations, health care, air conditioning, building design and countless other economic and social decisions. It’s all supposedly in the name of fighting climate change, but that’s just the pretext. Take climate away and they’d likely appeal to something else.”
Voices Of CO2 Doom Dishonestly Alarm Unthinking Worshippers with Correlations – While Downplaying Proven Causations
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Dec 26, 2023
“Click-bait media has hyped a few laboratory studies suggesting ocean acidification decreased coccolithophore calcification. But responses to elevated CO2 by different species of coccolithophores vary greatly. Some increase calcification, some show no effect, and some show negative effects, making any extrapolation of laboratory results to natural populations extremely challenging.”
U.S. Climate 2023 Year in Review – In one word: NORMAL
By Roger Pielke Jr., Via WUWT, Dec 20, 2023
#ECS in the real world: Lewis and Curry 2015
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 24, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy
Runaway greenhouse effect simulation shows risk to Earth climate: researchers
By AFP Staff Writers Geneva (AFP), Terra Daily, Dec 18, 2023
Link to press release: Exoplanets’climate – it takes nothing to switch from habitable to hell
A team from UNIGE, NCCR PlanetS and CNRS has managed to simulate the entire runaway greenhouse effect, which can make a planet completely unhabitable.
University of Geneva, 2023
Link to paper: First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D General Circulation Model
By Guillaume Chaverot, et al., Astronomy & Physics, Dec 18, 2023
From the abstract: “First, assuming initially a liquid surface ocean, there is an evaporation phase, which enriches the atmosphere with water vapor. Second, when the ocean is considered to be entirely evaporated, there is a dry transition phase for which the surface temperature increases dramatically. Finally, the evolution ends with a hot and stable post-runaway state.”
[SEPP Comment: Using global climate models that fail basic testing to further speculate about strong positive feedback from increasing water vapor that is not observed in 50 years of measurements of Earth’s atmosphere by instruments on weather balloons, to speculate that Venus and Earth are sister planets with similar atmospheres has no basis from physical evidence.]
State of Finance for Nature: The Big Nature Turnaround – Repurposing $7 trillion to combat nature loss, 2023
By Nathalie Olsen, et al., United Nations Environment Programme, Global Canopy, & The Economics of Land Degradation Initiative, 2023 [H/t Carbon Brief]
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/state_finance_nature_2023%20(1).pdf
[SEPP Comment: Send lots of money to the UN?]
US utilities on track to be 100% renewable by 2060, says study
By Stephanie Maltarich, University of Colorado at Boulder, TechXplore, Dec 18, 2023
Link to paper: Electric utility plans are consistent with Renewable Portfolio Standards and Clean Energy Standards in most US states
By Grace Kroeger & Matthew Burgess, Climate Change, Dec 18, 2023
The abstract begins: “Electricity is one of the easiest—and therefore most urgent—sectors to decarbonize.”
[SEPP Comment: If you don’t want reliable power or can build nuclear power plants overnight.]
Opinion: I’m a climate scientist. This is why I’m laughing
By Bill McGuire, CNN, Dec 15, 2023
“What we needed from the climate summit in Dubai was a binding commitment to cut emissions in half within six years, so as to have any chance of keeping the global average temperature rise (compared to pre-industrial times) this side of 1.5°C, and side-stepping dangerous, all pervasive, climate breakdown.”
[Sepp Comment: Laughable.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Biden administration takes step toward protecting old-growth trees
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 19, 2023
Link to study: Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size
By: N.L. Stephenson, et al., Nature, 2014
“Studies have shown that old-growth trees store significant amounts of carbon dioxide — making their protection important for fighting climate change.”
Climate Crisis: What is the Climate Crisis, Why is it happening, Hower does it affect us all, and What can you do?
By Staff, OXFAM, a public charity, 2023
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/Oxfam-Climate-Crisis-eBook.pdf
Questioning the Orthodoxy
International Energy Agency Promotes Oil Shortage Instead of Preventing It
By Mario Loyola, The Daily Signal, Dec 14, 2023
“The IEA’s original purpose included development of alternative energy sources. But that was in order to protect against future oil shocks, not to create a transition to alternative sources at the risk of an oil shock.
The U.S. has the lion’s share of voting rights on the IEA’s Governing Board. Those voting rights should be used to fire the current executive director and replace him with somebody who will stick to the IEA’s actual mission in the real world.”
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
“Anyone who knows the actual history of environmentalism is aware that back around 1950 there were mighty few pollution controls on industry generally and oil and gas in particular, and that the revolution in public consciousness in the 1960s and 1970s led to enormously effective rules about emissions of everything from sulfur dioxide to volatile organic compounds, and an astounding improvement in air and water quality throughout the industrialized democracies. He [Canada’s Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault] is of course confusing carbon dioxide with ‘pollution’.”
2023 Energy Literacy In Review – OpEd
By Ronald Stein, Eurasia Review, Dec 26, 2023
The Great Climate Fight… to be relevant
By Harry Wilkinson, Net Zero Watch, Dec 22, 2023
BBC Scottish Climate Lies Scandal Gets Interesting, As They Try To Cover Them Up!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 19, 2023
“It also appears that the original misinformation from the researchers has quietly been deleted. Unfortunately, this was never saved to Wayback, which leaves the BBC without any evidence that they were misled in the first place.”
INFOGRAPHIC: Climate Scientists’ Credibility Hurt
As climate experts warn of looming catastrophe, faulty past forecasts hurt their message.
By Petr Svab, Epoch Times, Dec 25, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Reason is Right, There is No ‘Climate Cliff’
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Dec 19, 2023
Energy and Environmental Review: December 18, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, Dec 18, 2023
After Paris!
After COP28: What Transition From Hydrocarbons?
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 22, 2023
“Mario Loyola wrote at The Wall Street Journal ‘The Impossible Energy ‘Transition’.’ Excerpts in italics with my bolds.”
Brendan O’Neill: COP28 and the scourge of eco-imperialism
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2023
Historically historic
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
Woot! What a show. What excitement. What a relief. COP28 went into overtime, of all things, exhausted delegates debated wording they no longer possessed the acuity to comprehend, and then miraculously they snatched rhetorical victory from the jaws of actual defeat and we got resounding with predictable declarations of a ‘historic deal’… Of course, after an almost identical theatrical performance a year ago in Egypt, journalactivists pronounced COP27 ‘historic’. Does anyone remember what for? Anyone?”
The £2.1bn mega-project to build world’s biggest airport in city loved by British tourists
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 28, 2023
“While the eco-loonies try to shut down UK air travel, Dubai is going to build the world’s biggest airport!”
10, give or take 10
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
“’On Sunday, a consortium of climate science groups released this year’s 10 New Insights in Climate Science, a synopsis of the most recent climate research. The report was written at the invitation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change…’ And you can guess just how new or insightful these deep thoughts from the IPCC were.”
COP28 Gets Coal In Its Stocking
Two weeks before Christmas, the Dubai climate confab ends with a thud as global coal demand continues to increase
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Dec 12, 2023
“Coal didn’t have many friends at COP28, but it continues to be an indispensable fuel for generating electricity. That means it’s going stick around.”
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Research Finds Higher Likelihood Of Extreme Snowfall. And: Greening Africa
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 26, 2023
Link to paper on Africa: Changes in vegetation greenness related to climatic and non-climatic factors in the Sudano-Sahelian region
By Yelong Zeng, et al. Regional Environmental Change, June 28, 2023
From abstract: “We quantified in more detail the relative contributions of rainfall variability (climatic factor), land use/land cover (LULC) change, and fire occurrence change (non-climatic factors) to vegetation greenness trends in selected sub-regions.”
Seeking a Common Ground
“Realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century
By Nicola Scafetta, Climate Etc. Dec 29, 2023
Link to paper: Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century
By Nicola Scafetta, Geoscience Frontiers, Mar 2, 2024
The optimistic vision
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
“The human capacity for error, rather than deceit, is one of our most developed faculties.”
“We wish all the governments going to COP28 to demand a phase-out were just faking it. But we don’t believe it. Justin Trudeau really thinks we can get rid of oil, gas and coal and be better off. So does Joe Biden.”
“As Thomas Sowell so masterfully discusses in A Conflict of Visions, the tension between those who rely on will and those who rely on method permeates public policy. And advocates of what we realists often scorn as unicorn power are just as sincere, and just as wrong, as those who think appeasement brings peace.”
A Thought Experiment; Simplifying the Climate Riddle.
By Bob Irvine, WUWT, Dec 20, 2023
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Wales To Spend £2.6 Billion Fighting Climate Change Next Year
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 29, 2023
“There are 1.3 million households in Wales, so over this two period climate spending by the Welsh Government will cost each and every one £4000. And that is on top of all of the other costs imposed by the UK Government.”
Measurement Issues — Surface
2023: Global temperature, statistics and hot air
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Dec 20, 2023
“The Met Office’s cunning plan is part of a trend we have mentioned before – making the ‘climate’ period shorter and the ‘weather’ longer. What was once defined as short-term weather is now called climate, ignoring the 30 year definition of climate that puts weather events into their statistical context. And of course each annual global temperature average, even those significantly influenced by a strong El Nino or La Nina, has turned into a climatic event because ocean cycles themselves have now become near-term climate events.”
A Wet “Drought”
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 27, 2023
“Unfortunately, there has been a lot of poor information about climate change, extreme weather, and drought being distributed by certain government agencies and some media.
One example is the nearly constant talk about drought here in the Northwest and the western U.S. in general, often with a suggestion of a climate change origin.
The most problematic source of the drought claims is the U.S. Drought Monitor graphic produced by a collection of governmental agencies. This is a subjective graphic, with no rigorous methodology based on objective information. And it exaggerates drought.”
Changing Weather
2023 US wildfire season sees total acreage burned under 3 million, far below 10-year avg. & lowest since 1998
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Dec 26, 2023
[SEPP Comment: From data by Meteorologist Paul Dorian. Wait until next year?]
Beijing records longest cold wave in modern history
Beijing records longest cold wave in modern history as heating systems in part of China struggles
By Xiaofei Xu, CNN, Dec 25, 2023
Record Heat In 1907
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 29, 2023
With Storms “Bombing” Over the Eastern Pacific, Big Waves Will Hit Our Coast
By Cliff Mass Weather Blog, Dec 24, 2023
Changing Climate
Paleoclimate Reconstructions Continue To Document A Much Warmer-Than-Today Holocene
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 28, 2023
Link to one paper: Pollen-based reconstructions of Holocene climate trends in the eastern Mediterranean region
By Esmeralda Cruz-Silva, et al, Climate of the Past, Nov 1, 2023
Winter Solstice Teaches Us About Climate Change
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Dec 18, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Data to 2013]
Changing Seas
2 More New Studies Undermine Alarmist Claims That Corals Are Harmed By Warming
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Dec 21, 2023
Link to one paper: Coral growth over the past 550 years in the central South China Sea linked to monsoon- and seabird-induced nutrient stress
By Yi Liu, et al., Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, May 1, 2023
Link to second paper: 9000 years of change in coral community structure and accretion in Belize reefs, western Atlantic
By Eberhard Gischler, et al., Nature, Scientific Reports, July 13, 2023
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Greater Than The Early 1980s
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 21, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Observations of ice thickness are sparce, and the estimates of volume are based on a model.]
Lowest Ice Extent In 7.5 Billion Years
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 29, 2023
Link to article: Antarctic sea ice levels dive in ‘five-sigma event’, as experts flag worsening consequences for planet
By Alexandra Alvaro, ABC, AU, News, July 26, 2023, Via WayBackMachine
“For those of you who are interested in statistics, this is a five-sigma event. So, it’s five standard deviations beyond the mean. Which means that if nothing had changed, we’d expect to see a winter like this about once every 7.5 billion years.
“It’s gobsmacking.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
In the land of make-believe
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
“The point being not that climate change is actually roiling supply chains. Rather, the same journalists who wrongly convinced people that they are starving as the world witnesses record harvests and much of it is in the grips of an obesity crisis now want you to think growing fennel will fix the issue.”
Lowering Standards
DAVID BLACKMON: This Agency Is Scrambling To Adjust Its Absurd ‘Peak Oil’ Predictions
By David Blackmon, Daily Caller, Dec 16, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
“The International Energy Agency, led by climate alarm advocate Fatih Birol, apparently feels it is safe to start the process of revising its forecasts for oil consumption growth now that the COP28 conference has ended. Right on cue, the agency seen by many as allowing an ideological bias to influence its reports upped its forecast for 2024 demand growth by 130,000 barrels per day less than 24 hours after the final COP28 agreement was made public.”
[SEPP Comment: IEA “accidently” delayed its announcement that the use of coal in 2022 exceeded its use in 2021 and it continues to grow in 2023?]
NERC ducks extreme cold grid threats
By David Wojick, CFACT, Dec 27, 2023
“In short, NERC’s ten-year projection of almost no growth in renewables is ridiculous. So is their deliberately ignoring the extremely cold weather that is certain to occur.
In reality, NERC’s long-term reliability assessment hides the risks it claims to elucidate. These risks are deadly and they must be faced.”
Gerrit’s 86 mph Winds Measured At Top Of 400 Foot Clifftop
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 29, 2023
“Once again the Met Office are guilty of using a totally unrepresentative site for the express purpose of stoking climate alarm.”
[SEPP Comment: Video of blades of a wind turbine in the wind!]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The BOM predicted a hot dry summer right before the flooding rains came
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 29, 2023
“The Australian editors gives the BOM an escape valve it doesn’t deserve:
‘To be fair to the BOM, a hysterical and ill-informed media has allowed climate alarmism to infect reporting of what should be routine weather events.’
For thirty years the Australian media has made hyperbolic scare stories about the weather while the BOM tacitly stood by and smiled. Where were they as the tenets of science were trashed, and critics were called ‘climate deniers’? If the BOM are victims of this hyperbole now, they reap what they sowed.”
Moderate Democrats fume over Biden hydrogen proposal
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 22, 2023
“The hydrogen energy issue divides Democrats, with more conservative Democrats pressing for the flexibility they say will help a nascent industry that could be important in the climate fight. Liberals argue loose rules could make hydrogen energy a climate change problem rather than a solution.”
[SEPP Comment: Yellow journalism, defining terms anyway to suit the article]
URGENT WARNING Scotland’s climate changing at alarming rate
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2023
Two More BBC Complaints
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 19, 2023
“In both cases, the BBC have merely cut and pasted press releases, as all the media seems to have done.
The BBC will no doubt blame the source and deny all responsibility, as they always do.
However, that does not excuse them from printing false information.”
BBC ‘Disinformation’ Reporter Plans Six-Month Sabbatical to go on Climate Course Funded by Green Billionaires
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 28, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Climate Crisis! Hottest Xmas Since 2016!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 27, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate Advocacy: Incompetence Versus Intentional Fraud — Lazard Edition
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 17, 2023
“The Lazard LCOE Reports are famous for their repeated conclusion that wind turbines and solar panels have become the cheapest sources for generation of electricity.”
“Could the people at Lazard who produce all these fancy and complex charts and graphs really not know that 4-hour duration batteries cycling once per day are not going to come close to solving the intermittency problems of wind and solar generation? Or do they really know that, and they are just hoping to sell a few hundreds of billions of dollars worth of wind turbines and solar panels before the stupid politicians and investors figure out the scam?”
New Year’s Resolution – Methane Response
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, Dec 29, 2023
“Climate Act [NY Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act] authors claimed it was necessary to use 20-year global warming potential (GWP) values because methane is estimated to be 28 to 36 greater than carbon dioxide for a 100-year time horizon but 84-87 greater GWP over a 20-year period.”
Climate Enron May Be Heading for a Crash
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Winer, Nov 15, 2023
“In Skilling’s [Enron’s CFO] ‘mark-to-market’ accounting, anticipated future profits from any deal were accounted for by estimating their present value rather than historical cost. Thus, argued Skilling, Enron did not really need ‘assets.’
Two Thousand Degrees Of Warming
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Refers to a foolish study in Astronomy & Astrophysics by Chaverot.]
Hottest In 125,000 Years?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 23, 2023
Unprecedented Amazon Drought?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 26, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Climate change is 100% bad: Now causing allergies, asthma in rich countries and not poor ones
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 28, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Plant life flourishing is harmful?]
Burning Arctic
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 22, 2023
“Experts say the Arctic is burning and the hot Arctic is making China freeze.”
Climate change: Seasonal shifts causing ‘chaos’ for UK nature
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 28, 2023
“The whole idea that Britain’s nature is in a state of chaos because of climate change is ludicrous.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Former Greens Leader Bob Brown says wind industry and renewables are profiteering off climate
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 23, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Save the planet, but not in my backyard?]
Questioning European Green
Archimedes’ Fulcrum: Time’s up for Net Zero
By Gwythian Prins, Net Zero Watch, Dec 19, 2023
Link to report: Archimedes’ Fulcrum: Time’s up for Net Zero
By Gwythian Prins, Net Zero Watch, 2023
“The harder Net Zero is pushed, the more it fails; and in its failing the more it brings the noble causes of environmental stewardship and human flourishing into disrepute.”
Net zero is about to get even more painful
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 29, 2023
“We are currently on the fourth (2023-27) carbon budget, which requires a 52pc fall in emissions compared with 1990. This might be achievable, but the fifth and sixth (involving a 77pc fall by 2037) surely won’t be, at least not without a walloping blow to our economy, freedoms and living standards.”
Government will hit target of 600,000 annual heat pump installations, insists minister
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2023
“They really do live in Cloud-Cuckoo Land, don’t they!”
Germany: “Renewable Energy Sector Facing The Abyss”…”On The Brink” …Economy Breaking Up
By P Gosselin, NO Tricks Zone, Dec 27, 2023
What could happen if we just stopped oil? Six billion might die
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 20, 2023
Investors Are Turning On A Key Pillar Of Biden’s Climate Agenda
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Dec 26, 2023
Low Winds, Winter Sun, and Lots of Clouds Mean Little Renewable Energy over the Pacific Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Dec 22, 2023
“For those interested in reducing global warming, preserving the Snake River dams should be an important priority, since there is no viable plan for replacing their power.”
New York City’s Climate Policies Could Make Life Even More ‘Unaffordable’ For The Middle Class
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Dec 27, 2023
Green Jobs
Scottish battery factory goes bust in fresh blow to UK’s net zero industry
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 20, 2023
“Eventually they might work out that you cannot create jobs by government diktat!”
Funding Issues
CCP-tied group is quietly fueling US-based climate initiatives: tax filings
‘Environmentalists fueled by China are promoting policies that would increase our dependence on China’: energy expert
By Thomas Catenacci and Joe Schoffstall, Fox News, Dec 18, 2023
“The Energy Foundation, which conducts its operations in Beijing, funneled nearly $4 million to U.S. climate initiatives last year, according to tax filings first obtained by Fox News Digital. Among the groups it funded is the Natural Resources Defense Council, which has opposed fossil fuel drilling and pipelines like the Keystone XL project.”
[SEPP Comment: TWTW reviewed the latest publicly available IRS 990 by the Natural Resources Defense Council, 2021. The organization with $180,000,000 in revenue, $128,000,000 in contributions did not specifically identify any of its three major contributors who contributed over $32,000,000.]
The Political Games Continue
Republicans Hold Hearing ‘to Prevent Energy Poverty’ in America
By Derrick Hollie, Real Clear Energy, Dec 20, 2023
“Energy poverty occurs when individuals and families are unable to afford basic heating, electricity, and gas needs.”
[SEPP Comment: Wil the response by the greens be to subsidize that which they create?]
Litigation Issues
EXCLUSIVE: Emails Show Biden Admin Coordinating With Enviro Group That’s Suing Them
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Dec 19, 2023
“’Still, if I didn’t know better I would suspect there are two standards in applying the law. Shrug it off for friends—that’s what phone calls are for — and, to the disfavored, indignantly declare the law to be a sacred shield,’ [Attorney Chris] Horner said.”
Major ‘climate deception’ lawsuit against Big Oil voluntarily dismissed
Lawsuit was among the first of many novel cases alleging Big Oil has deceived the public for decades about global warming
By Thomas Catenacci Fox News, Dec 19, 2023 [H/t Russell Cook]
“The California-based Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations (PCFFA), the largest trade association of commercial fishermen on the West Coast, requested the dismissal in a filing with the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. The request came after Judge Vince Chhabria ruled on Nov. 1 that the case could be heard in federal court despite PCFFA’s argument for it to be tried in state court.”
[SEPP Comment: In state court to be heard by a jury of PCFFA members?]
Oregon appeals court finds the rules for the state’s climate program are invalid
By AP, The Hill, Dec 20, 2023
“The Climate Protection Program targets a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation fuels and natural gas by 2050.”
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Germany’s Nationwide Discontent Will Be Fueled Further By Higher CO2 Tax – Planned For 2024!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 23, 2023
The £600 Gas Boiler “Tax” Coming Your Way
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2023
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Orsted Will Switch Part Of Hornsea 3 To Round 6
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 20, 2023
“In short, Orsted want to renege on part of their existing contract, in order to switch that capacity to double the prices in Allocation Round 6.
The government needs to grow a backbone, and tell them they are excluded from Allocation Round 6.”
Wind Curtailment Costs To Rise To £3 Billion By 2030
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 19, 2023
“As the BBC is suddenly concerned about energy bills, maybe it should remind its readers that they are already paying some £1.2 billion to subsidise Scotland’s onshore wind farms every year.”
The Electric Car Scheme
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 26, 2023
“To be able to save 30% on the cost of lease payments is naturally hugely attractive to potential buyers, and is a subsidy paid by government.”
EPA and other Regulators on the March
‘Tremendously Damaging’: Here’s The Most Aggressive Restrictions Biden’s EPA Pushed On Americans In 2023
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Dec 29, 2023
EPA to disperse $600M in anti-pollution grants through regional organizations
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 20, 2023
“The funding is part of a larger bucket of $3 billion provided by the Inflation Reduction Act aimed at improving environmental justice…”
[SEPP Comment: Washington’s way to fight inflation – spend money?]
Energy Issues – Non-US
The Cult of Darkness
By Edward Hudgins, Master Resource, Dec 22, 2023
Britain’s Net Zero Disaster and the Wind Power Scam
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Dec 20, 2023
“In 2009, 87.3 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity, comprising only 5.1 percent of wind and solar, generated 376.8 terrawatt hours (TWh) of electricity. In 2020, 100.9 GW of generating capacity, with wind and solar accounting for 37.6 percent of capacity, produced 312.3 TWh of electricity. Thanks to renewables, 13.6 GW (15.6 percent) more generating capacity produced 64.5 TWh (17.1 percent) less electricity.”
The Needs of the Grid Are Changing — Our Infrastructure Must Change With Them
By Christina Hayes, Real Clear Energy, Dec 20, 2023
[SEPP Comment: As observation of the UK, above, shows and contrary to what the author implies, increasing generating capacity does not equal increasing low-cost electricity reliability.]
The Impact Of Heat Pumps On Electricity Demand
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 22, 2023
“Along with demand from EVs, the UK would need well over 100 GW of capacity to meet peak demand.”
Heat pumps are a vote loser
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Dec 22, 2023
Energy Issues — US
Ten Improbable Energy Ideas for 2024
By Leonard Hyman & William Tilles, Oil Price.com, Dec 26, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshie]
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden administration auctions off 1.7M acres for Gulf drilling in last offshore oil lease sale until 2025
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 20, 2023
“The recent sale was mandated by the Inflation Reduction Act — Democrats’ climate, tax and health care bill.
However, it follows a contentious recent court battle in which environmental advocates sought to shrink the sale and add stipulations to protect the Rice’s Whale.”
Final Lower Snake River Juvenile Salmon Migration Feasibility Report: Environmental Impact Statement
US Army Corps of Engineers, Walla Walla District, February 2002
[SEPP Comment: Not considered well is the cost of electricity if dams are breached and the cost of replacing the dams if the breaching of the dams fails to increase populations of the fish including listed species. See link above under Questioning Green Elsewhere.]
Return of King Coal?
Old King Coal at COP28: Uninvited Guest or Star of the Show?
By Tilak Doshi & Peter A. Coclanis, Real Clear Energy, Dec 19, 2023
Link to report: Coal 2023: Analysis and forecast to 2026
By Staff IEA, 2023
From report: “Global coal consumption reached an all-time high in 2022…and the world is heading towards a new record in 2023… Global coal demand is set to decline to 2026 – but China will have the last word… Coal’s shift to Asia is accelerating… Major coal producers are increasing their output… Coal trade has expanded to an all-time high in 2023 but will decline afterwards.” [if China and India agree and EU expands production?}
From article: “No country ever has reached ‘developed country’ status without relying on fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas).”
A Coal Refuse Power Plant Is Pioneering an AI-Driven Overhaul
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Dec 19, 2023
“An iconic coal refuse power plant in West Virginia that burns gob—basically dirt—and pond fines as part of a complex environmental solution to address coal waste is stepping up efforts to improve its efficiency, reliability, and cost reductions by embracing cutting-edge artificial intelligence (AI).”
Nuclear Energy and Fears
California Regulators Vote to Keep Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant Open Another Five Years
By Derrell Proctor, Power Mag, Dec 15, 2023
Scientists repeat nuclear fusion breakthrough 3 times
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Dec 22, 2023
“Federal scientists have repeated their breakthrough toward nuclear fusion energy three times this year — and now say they can ‘consistently’ produce fusion energy.”
[SEPP Comment: Unable to locate press release or report that defines how long is “consistently.” The fusion energy produced is a tiny fraction of the energy poured into the lasers to produce the fusion energy.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Scientists find new way to desalinate seawater using solar power, study says
The more efficient desalination process could ease dwindling water supplies.
By Julia Jacobo, ABC News, Dec 21, 2023
Link to paper: Solar-powered simultaneous highly efficient seawater desalination and highly specific target extraction with smart DNA hydrogels
By Hanxue Liang, et al., Science Advances, Dec 22, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Is it less costly than the desalination plant in Carlsbad, CA?]
ICEBREAKER Wind Dead: Great Lakes Alive
By Sherri Lange, Master Resources, Dec 19, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Audi hits brakes on EV rollout as enthusiasm wanes
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 19, 2023
‘Zero Emission’ Truck Fraud: Candid Camera Meets Nikola (Trevon Milton to the Slammer?)
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Dec 27, 2023
No one wants used EVs, making new ones a tougher sell too
By Monica Raymunt, The Japan Times, Dec 25, 20-23
How expensive is EV charging
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 27, 2023
Diverted Flights & Battery Aircraft
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 29, 2023
Health, Energy, and Climate
Lancet Report Reveals Devastating Impact of Climate Policies on Public Health in Developing Countries
By Mikko Paunio, The Daily Sceptic, Dec 20, 2023
“Thus, the implication that coal is to blame is misleading, since electricity and heat are produced in power stations with effective scrubbers. In Helsinki we had two extremely efficient coal plants, which were producing simultaneously electricity and heat, until green ideologues managed to close them (one is still running until 2025). Helsinki has among the cleanest ambient air quality of any metropolitan area in the globe.”
UK Health Security Agency boss criticised for tropical disease claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 18, 2023
“A leading expert in mosquito-borne diseases is fiercely critical of Professor Dame Jenny Harries, head of the UK Health Security Agency, calling her recent pronouncements on mosquito-transmitted diseases ‘entirely fictional’ and ‘shameless’.”
Environmental Industry
Bill McKibben Lists Five Reason New LNG Terminals Won’t Be Approved. We Add One More
By Seve Hanley, Clean Technical, Dec 24, 2023
“First, he cites the convergence of many important voices who have expressed opposition to the planned LNG terminals. This week, 170 scientists wrote to the president to urge the plans be rejected. According to Food and Water Watch, the letter cited the enormous impact the proposal would have on global climate pollution — about 20 times that of the recently-approved Willow oil drilling project in Alaska.”
[SEPP Comment: If Earth warming is pollution, what would glaciation be called – freezing-out pollution?]
Other News that May Be of Interest
The Technocracy’s Masks Are All Off Now
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Dec 19, 2023
“Just last month, noted historian Victor Davis Hanson wrote that, ‘For the first time in a millennium, Europe no longer plays a critical role in promoting Western civilization nor in world history at large.’”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
This beloved New Year’s Eve ‘pop’ could soon disappear because of changing weather
By Rachel Ramirez, CNN, Dec 28, 2023
“The three grapes used in almost all champagne — chardonnay, pinot noir and pinot meunier — are among hundreds on the brink of extinction, according to Silicon Valley startup ClimateAi, which shared data insights with CNN.”
[SEPP Comment: What bunk! Champagne is only a French marketing name. Great sparkling wines come from elsewhere as well.]
Two Thousand Degrees Of Warming
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 22, 2023
Link to press release: Exoplanets’ climate – it takes nothing to switch from habitable to hell
Link to paper: First exploration of the runaway greenhouse transition with a 3D General Circulation Model
By Guillaume Chaverot, et al., Astronomy and Astrophysics, Dec 18, 2023
We don’t want to see this emission reduction plan
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 20, 2023
“’Dr. Nicholas Cowan, an atmospheric physicist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Edinburgh, said: ‘Exhaled human breath can contain small, elevated concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both of which contribute to global warming. We would urge caution in the assumption that emissions from humans are negligible.’’”
COP 28: Climate Hysteric Peter Kalmus Has the Sads
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 20, 2023
OSU scientists collect aardvark poop, connect it to climate change
By Editors, Corvallis Gazette-Times, Dec 28, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Influence of climate and landscape on genetic differentiation of aardvarks (Orycteropus afer)
By Clinton W. Epps, et al, Diversity and Distributions, Dec 13, 2023
[SEPP Comment: No reported measurements of “climate change” in areas of South Africa where the study was conducted only “climate-associated adaptive differences.”]
Southwest Permanent Drought Update
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Dec 22, 2023
Record Numbers Of Puffins
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 29, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Not disappearing as forecasted?]
ARTICLES
1. Treasury Drops a Hydrogen Bomb
Behold the brawl between green groups over a new tax credit for hydrogen power.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Dec. 27, 2023
TWTW Summary: The key paragraph is:
“He [Senator Joe Manchin] may be underestimating the Administration’s cynicism. The Environmental Protection Agency this year proposed a rule that would effectively require natural-gas power plants to use clean hydrogen to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. If clean hydrogen doesn’t exist in sufficient quantities by the time the rule takes effect, natural gas-fired plants may have no choice but to shut down. The only consistency in the Biden Administration’s climate agenda is its desire to harm fossil fuels.
“” Statistical Games””
Are an essential tool to the cause
“”Ulez averts more air pollution than that caused by capital’s airports, report shows””
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/28/london-ulez-averts-more-air-pollution-than-that-caused-by-capitals-airports-report-shows
What report? “”commissioned from Logika Group Air Quality Consultants””
https://www.logikagroup.com/
Imperial College didn’t get a look in this time.
“”Researchers from Imperial College London have found that air quality in London was not significantly affected by the policy””
https://news.sky.com/story/londons-ultra-low-emission-zone-resulting-in-only-marginal-air-quality-improvements-12469903
Khan out ‘24
In the next few days, the polar vortex will form two centers in accordance with the centers of the geomagnetic field in the north.
Isobars show how the circulation in the tropopause will proceed. Warmer air from over the Atlantic will reach Svalbard, and the Russian high will strengthen in eastern Europe.
The above is surely subject to experimental examination. While the concept of saturation is frequently mentioned in arguments, I’ve seen no mention of verification. What happens in a laboratory, even with this limited consideration, might not be what happens in total in the atmosphere with its many more dynamics, but at least it could be established, or debunked, within limited circumstances. The Wijngaarden and Happer position appears to be only model based.
It should be possible, possibly even trivial with today’s technology, to measure the heating from applying a measured amount of IR radiation to contained gas samples having differing concentrations of CO2 . Does heating efficiency increase from ~ zero CO2 concentration up to the “saturation” concentration, then fail to increase beyond that level?