Arches National Park Utah 2019 copyright Charles Rotter

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #476

The Week That Was: 2021-10-23 (October 23, 2021)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool. …” – Richard Feynman

Number of the Week: Twenty Years

THIS WEEK:

By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: The drumbeat for war on reliable energy continues to build from the UN and its supporters. Numerous studies are pouring out of the UN, Washington, and Britain emphasizing the need to abandon reliable electricity generation because burning fossil fuels produces carbon dioxide which adds to the greenhouse effect. Yet, without the greenhouse effect, we would not exist.

The earth would be as lifeless as Mars which rotates about the same rate as the Earth (24.66 hours). Near the equator in the shade (Gale Crater) the average summer daily temperature range of Mars is about minus 100 F (minus 70 C) to 36 F (2 C), even though it has a thin atmosphere of about 95% carbon dioxide (CO2). The atmosphere of the earth is about 150 times (standard sea level pressure of 1,013 millibars) the density of Mars (average pressure at surface at 6 to 7 millibars). The nighttime cold on Mars would kill unprotected humans. So would the nighttime cold on Earth without the greenhouse effect.

Without CO2, plant life would not exist, and we would not exist. Thus, without the greenhouse effect and CO2 it is unlikely humanity would exist. The issue is: are we getting too much of a good thing? There simply is no compelling physical evidence that we are.

Unfortunately, some authors belittled CO2 saying it is only 0.04% of the atmosphere, or 400 ppm (parts per million volume), not realizing it has an important greenhouse effect, and failing to note that without that CO2, there would be no plant or animal life. Although second to water vapor, CO2 is an effective greenhouse gas at low concentrations, but the effect of additional CO2 diminishes greatly as concentrations increase. The works by William Happer and William van Wijngaarden, followed by Howard Hayden show that at concentrations above 100 ppm CO2 is no longer effective as a greenhouse gas but highly effective for flourishing of plant life. As Hayden shows in Energy Advocate, at 50 ppm, it absorbs about one-half of what it can absorb at 800 ppm (discussed next week).

This TWTW will focus on the work of Ross McKitrick because his work goes to a failure of the IPCC process in attributing climate change to humans. McKitrick discusses it simply in a paper he prepared for the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) that clearly discusses the important emphasis the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) places on calculation of probabilities using a faulty method for calculation of probabilities. McKitrick’s work was criticized by one of the founders of the new method for assigning probability of human influence on natural events. McKitrick’s critic, Myles Allen claimed that many more studies have been made, all with the same technique. Richard Tol demolished that argument.

Next week, TWTW will focus on the presentations by William Happer and Tom Sheahen at the Heartland Conference. Happer’s talk was philosophical, but his work is critical for understanding the Greenhouse Effect (better called the Atmosphere Effect) and SEPP Chairman Tom Sheehan discusses why he is confident it is sound physics. Also, it will take up other presentations by directors of SEPP, including Pat Michaels, David Legates, Willie Soon, and Howard Hayden.

Please note that the Global Warming Policy Foundation’s web site, the Global Warming Policy Forum, has changed to Net Zero Watch.com., emphasizing the extremely high cost of the UK moving to net zero CO2 emissions. Fortunately for the US, the UK is considerably ahead of it in the brave new world no CO2 emissions. This gives the American public the opportunity to learn from the folly, though it appears the Biden Administration and those who follow it are incapable of learning anything that questions their ideology.

TWTW established a new category Energy Issues – UK to highlight the lessons the UK may learn. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Mars and https://marsed.asu.edu/mep/atmosphere

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Failure to Test: Ross McKittrick, a Professor of Economics at the University of Guelph, Canada. He has expertise in statistical inference, a subject that is important in economics, psychology, climate, and others that involve analysis of data. He introduces his new paper on a statistical technique relied on by the IPCC by stating (footnotes omitted):

“In 1999, Myles Allen and Simon Tett published an article in the journal Climate Dynamics (henceforth denoted ‘AT99’), which formalised a procedure – optimal fingerprinting – for attributing observed climate changes to underlying causes, with a specific focus on forcing due to greenhouse gases. They also proposed a method called the Residual Consistency (RC) test, for ascertaining if the statistical model was valid.

“Optimal fingerprinting, which is sometimes called optimal detection, was instantly embraced and promoted by the IPCC in its 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR),   and has been referenced in every IPCC Assessment Report since. TAR Appendix 12.1 was headlined ‘Optimal detection is regression’, and began:

“’The detection technique that has been used in most ‘optimal detection’ studies performed to date has several equivalent representations…It has recently been recognised that it can be cast as a multiple regression problem with respect to generalised least squares (Allen and Tett, 1999; see also Hasselmann, 1993, 1997)’

“In 2014 a group of authors led by Jara Imbers, which included Myles Allen as coauthor, pointed to the impact the statistical method had had over the intervening years:

“’The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) ‘very likely’ statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability…as simulated by [climate models].’

“The IPCC’s promotion of and reliance on optimal fingerprinting continues today.4   It has been used in dozens and possibly hundreds of studies over the years. Wherever you begin in the literature in the field, all paths lead back to Allen and Tett (often via the follow-up paper Allen and Stott  2003). Furthermore, the literature has relied almost exclusively on the RC test for checking the validity of results. So, the errors and deficiencies in the paper matter acutely, even two decades later.

The introduction demonstrates the lack of rigor in applying the scientific method by the IPCC. If it finds something it believes works, it will apply it repeatedly without exhaustive testing. The method relies on the Generalized Least Squares Theorem (GLS) by Gauss-Markov (GM) which entails advanced mathematics including matrix algebra. The goal is to develop estimates (samples) of a population using the best linear unbiased estimates (BLUE). The key word is unbiased. In studying regression analysis to eliminate errors, students of econometrics are taught these conditions, which McKitrick teaches, but, apparently, no one with the IPCC understands them, or at least did not speak out.

Among the conditions are that the values (parameters) are linear (or can be made roughly linear), the sampling is random, the independent values are not correlated (closely related to, or dependent upon each other), the independent values are not dependent on the term that is being explored (called exogeneity), and that the scattering of the variables is similar (roughly constant, called homoscedasticity).

Using the example of the slope of a regression analysis, on page 4 and 5 of his new paper McKitrick states:

“Statistical theory tells us that as long as the regression model satisfies a certain set of conditions, there is a 95% probability that the true value of the slope (the one you’d get if you were able to sample the whole population) is within approximately plus or minus two standard deviations of the estimate of the slope. This is called the 95% confidence interval.

“So, we can use regression methods to fit a line through a sample of data – say hurricane frequency and temperature – and if the slope estimate is more than two standard deviations above zero, we can say we are ‘confident’ that an increase in temperature leads to an increase in hurricanes. If it isn’t, we say that the relationship is positive but statistically insignificant.”

In discussing the error of the Allen and Tett paper which the IPCC accepted unquestionably, McKitrick states in pages 7 and 8 of his new paper:

“Allen and Tett’s argument was something like this. They noted that applying a weighting scheme makes the fingerprinting model similar to a GLS regression. And since a properly specified GLS model satisfies the GM conditions, their method (they said) yields unbiased and efficient results. That slightly oversimplifies their argument, but not by much. And the main error is obvious. You can’t know if a model satisfies the GM conditions unless you test for specific violations. AT99 stated the GM conditions incorrectly, leaving an important one out altogether, and failed to propose any tests for violations.

“In fact, they derailed the whole idea of specification testing by arguing that they only needed to test that the climate model noise covariance estimates were ‘reliable’ (their term—which they did not define), and they proposed something called the Residual Consistency (RC) test for that purpose. They didn’t offer any proof that the RC test does what they claimed it does. In fact, they didn’t even provide a mathematical statement of what.it tests; they only said that if the formula they proposed pops out a small number, the fingerprinting regression is valid. In my paper, I explained that there can easily be cases where the RC test would yield a small number, even in models that are known.to be misspecified and unreliable.

“So, in summary, Allen and Tett’s method failed to ensure the GM conditions were met, and so failed to assess whether their estimates were reliable. In fact, as I argued in my paper, the Allen and Tett method, as set out in their paper, automatically fails at least one GM condition, and probably more. So, the results must be assumed to be unreliable.

“In the years since its publication, however, no-one noticed the errors in the AT99 discussion of the GM conditions, no-one minded the absence of a derivation of the RC test, and none of the subsequent applications of the AT99 method were subject to conventional specification testing. That means we have no basis for accepting any claims that rely on the optimal fingerprinting method.”

As published by the GWPF, Myles Allen and Simon Tett responded to the criticism by McKitrick. Richard Tol of the University of Sussex and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam wrote:

The debate between Ross McKitrick on the one hand and Myles Allen and Simon Tett on the other is a difficult one. It is about a detail in statistical theory. Most people try to steer clear of statistics, let alone the inner workings of estimators that are robust to heteroskedasticity.

Allen and Tett worked on a method developed earlier by Klaus Hasselmann, now a Nobel laureate. Regression analysis consists of a model and an error term. It maximized the similarity between model and data, minimizing the error. Ordinary least squares, the standard regression method, assumes that all errors are the same. If this assumption is violated, the standard errors of the estimated parameters are biased even if there are infinitely many observations. The test whether there is a climate signal in the data relies on those standard errors. That test is therefore wrong.

Allen and Tett were aware of this problem and proposed a solution in their 1999 paper. Unfortunately, their list of references shows that they did not consult much statistical literature. They did not visit Oxford’s excellent departments of statistics or econometrics either – where they would have learned that Halbert White had published a solution in 1980, a solution that was in every textbook by 1990.

The solution proposed by Allen and Tett does not solve the problem. On the contrary. Ordinary least squares would have done better. The estimated standard error is still inconsistent. Worse, McKitrick shows that the estimated parameter is now biased. Allen and Tett also proposed a test of their method. McKitrick shows this test is wrong as well: It finds too many false positives.  That is, Allen and Tett published a non-solution that made matters worse plus a way to cover it all up.

In his reply, here and elsewhere, Myles Allen makes light of his mistake. It was so long ago. He also reveals that he does not understand the issue. Allen argues that there are now much more data. This would overcome all statistical problems. Nothing could be further from the truth. The Allen and Tett estimator is biased. More data just means that you have greater confidence in the wrong result. [Boldface added]

From a statistical standpoint, one can say that the confidence the IPCC expresses in its work that humans are responsible for climate change is unreliable. Others have estimated that about 10,000 studies use IPCC estimates of CO2 emissions that are far too high and unreliable. The same can be said for studies that follow IPCC’s assertions that humans are responsible for climate change. For years, TWTW and others have been stating that the claims of certainty in IPCC work are false, now we can clearly show why. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.

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How Much? At the Beginning? The government of UK Prime Minister “Build Back Better” Boris Johnson broke a cardinal rule of climate activism, by releasing its realistic preliminary estimates of how much it will cost to replace the current system of reliable electrical generation with unreliable renewables. Reporter Joseph Sternberg writes in the Wall Street Journal:

If Prime Minister Boris Johnson didn’t appear to believe so sincerely in the virtues of tackling climate change, you’d assume he was trying to sabotage the crusade against carbon-dioxide emissions. The bold plan he released this week for the U.K. to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 breaks the cardinal rule of climate activism: Never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, tell the public in one go how much they’ll have to pay and how much of their ordinary lives they’ll have to change to rein in emissions.

It’s not so much that this program is quantitatively different from climate-action agendas that other governments have implemented over the years. The British government admits it doesn’t know how much it will spend on the wide range of greenhouse-gas mitigations it proposes. But then neither does anyone else. No one has managed to total Germany’s spending on its long-running energy transition, although one credible guess pegged it at €120 billion for merely the five years leading up to 2018. U.S. Democrats resisted putting a price tag on their climate fever dream, the Green New Deal.

Rather, Mr. Johnson’s plan is qualitatively distinctive in foisting substantial changes on the section of the energy market voters notice most: the proverbial last mile between the national energy system and households.

The centerpiece of his plan is a program to replace home heating systems en masse, pushing homeowners to abandon gas-fired boilers in favor of green heat pumps with some subsidy but at considerable personal expense. There’s also a vague plan to tie preferential mortgage rates to green home improvements, and dozens of other promises (or threats) such as to increase the average occupancy per vehicle on British roads, presumably by encouraging more carpooling or use of buses and the like.

A companion fiscal report from the British Treasury, meanwhile, explains in greater detail than anyone has before exactly how taxation will change in a green economy. Around £37 billion a year will have to be found to replace the fuel taxes that electric-car drivers no longer will pay. That amounts to roughly 1.5% of U.K. gross domestic product a year in lost revenue by the 2040s. This means either cuts on other spending items or alternative taxes such as road-usage charges.

Talk about an experiment. The great unknown in climate debates has always been exactly how much voters are willing to bear in pursuit of reduced greenhouse-gas emissions. Mr. Johnson seems determined to force an answer.

The reporter then discusses possible reactions among voters and concludes.

They [voters] wildly overestimate the carbon benefits of abandoning plastics and underestimate the relative impact of Britons’ penchant for jetting off on vacations abroad. They also underestimate the carbon gains to be had from reducing the number of children per family—quite possibly because the idea of sacrificing one’s family, literally, for the climate is so preposterous it rarely features in these debates.

These perceptions have persisted because up to now politicians have been highly effective at creating the impression among voters that environmentalism is something someone somewhere else in the economy does. Mr. Johnson is starting to disabuse Britons of that notion with this week’s plan, and he may well discover there’s a reason few others have been willing to try.

See Article # 1 and links under Energy Issues – UK

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More Non-Science: Agencies of the US Federal Government are releasing reports on addressing dangerous global warming. These reports blindly follow the unreliable findings of the UN IPCC. The lack of critical thinking is similar to when the US committed hundreds of thousands of ground troops into Vietnam. A political fad is not a well-thought-out plan. See links under Change in US Administrations.

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Number of the Week: Twenty Years. For twenty years, from the time the IPCC published AR3 in 2001 to its publication of AR6 in 2021, it has uncritically accepted faulty science, as demonstrated by Ross McKitrick’s publication of the faulty statistical methods to attribute climate change to humans.

NEWS YOU CAN USE:

Science: Is the Sun Rising?

New study confirms Sun/Cosmic-Ray climate connection

By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Oct 12, 2021

Link to paper: Atmospheric ionization and cloud radiative forcing

By Henrik Svensmark, Jacob Svensmark, Martin Bødker Enghoff & Nir J. Shaviv, Nature, Scientific Reports, Oct 11, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-99033-1

“A new study published in Nature Scientific Reports by researchers at the Danish National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and The Hebrew University of Jerusalem suggests that the Sun’s activity in screening cosmic rays affects clouds and, ultimately, the Earth’s energy budget with concomitant climatic effects.”

Climategate Continued

4 More New Reconstructions Affirm The Medieval Warm Period Was ‘Warmer Than Today’

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 14, 2021

Steve Koonin & The Factcheckers

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2021

“These factcheckers have no interest in facts. Their only concern is that views are not expressed which run counter to their extremist outlook, which is not based on fact and hard data, but on theories, models and prejudice.”

Google demonetizes climate skeptics and bans “denier” ads because skeptics win over too many people

The only people worth silencing are those who are right

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 9, 2021

Injunction Ruling Against YouTube/Google Censorship! Removal Of Lockdown-Critical Videos “Illegal”

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 13, 2021

[SEPP Comment: According to the Cologne Regional Court.]

Big Tech is censoring the climate change debate

Fossil fuels are a miracle, but don’t go trying to say that on YouTube

By Daniel Turner, Spectator, Oct 12, 2021 [H/t Jim Buell]

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/big-tech-censoring-climate-change-debate/

Google Bans Ads That Spread Climate Misinformation

The new rules could put pressure on Facebook to take similar steps

By Corbin Hiar, E&E News, Via Scientific American, October 8, 2021

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/google-bans-ads-that-spread-climate-misinformation/

[SEPP Comment: Such as exaggerating greenhouse gas warming as claimed by Scientific American?]

Waiting for YouTube

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2021/10/20/waiting-for-youtube/

Suppressing Scientific Inquiry

Plain English Lost on the High Court of Australia

By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Oct 13, 2021

“There needs to be major punishment against universities for infringement of academic freedom of speech, such as fines or losing their accreditation. There needs to be active policing and investigations of the universities to make sure they comply and do not threaten academics with expensive legal action to stop the university’s behaviour becoming public.”

Peter Ridd case: James Cook University wins, proving we can’t trust their research as staff can’t speak freely

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 13, 2021

Top Berkeley Scientist Resigns, Says School Excludes Scientists Based on Political Views

By Laurel Duggan, The Daily Signal, Oct 19, 2021

https://www.dailysignal.com/2021/10/19/top-berkeley-scientist-resigns-says-school-excludes-scientists-based-on-political-views/?utm_source=TDS_Email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CapitolBell&mkt_tok=ODI0LU1IVC0zMDQAAAGAOSHi8DQtBSXQAEH0zc94gQZ8xwbhRoeAVMWfstt4fWukpg-CPVeaRjbKjXQ26DYCAEXumd1uUtsAkFHiN5BDL6oHS6cz_T–OW04fk2rsM2mOg

COVID, lockdown and the retreat of scientific debate

Error-strewn attacks in the British Medical Journal show what awaits academics who challenge prevailing views

By Martin Kulldorff, Spectator, Oct 15, 2021

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/covid-lockdown-retreat-scientific-debate-bmj-great-barrington-declaration/

It’s Official: Dissident Academics Are Fair Game

By Augusto Zimmermann, Quadrant, Oct 15, 2021

Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science

Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts

Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/

Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf

Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels

By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019

http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/

Download with no charge:

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Climate-Change-Reconsidered-II-Fossil-Fuels-FULL-Volume-with-covers.pdf

Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming

The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus

By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015

http://climatechangereconsidered.org/

Download with no charge:

https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate

S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008

http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf

Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data

By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019

Challenging the Orthodoxy

Heartland’s 2021 Climate Conference, Oct 15-17

Video, Multiple Speakers, Accessed Oct 21, 2021

Suboptimal Fingerprinting? A debate about climate statistics

By Staff, GWPF, Oct 18, 2021

Link to simplified paper: Suboptimal Fingerprinting?

By Ross McKitrick, GWPF, 2021

Welcome to Net Zero Watch

By Benny Peiser, Net Zero Watch, Oct 11, 2021

Thunderous New “Atmosphere” Publication: “Warming Of Last 20 Years Mainly Caused By Cloud Changes”

Warming of the last 20 years mainly caused by cloud cover changes

By Fritz Vahrenholt and Hans-Rolf Dübal (Translated, edited and subheadings by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Oct 9, 2021

Link to paper: Radiative Energy Flux Variation from 2001–2020

By Hans-Rolf Dübal, and Fritz Vahrenholt, Atmosphere, Oct 4, 2021

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/10/1297

Radiative energy flux variations from 2000 – 2020

By Fritz Vahrenholt and Rolf Dubal, Climate Etc. Oct 10, 2021

2001-2019 Warming Driven By Increases In Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not Human Emissions

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 18, 2021

Link to first paper: Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate

By Norman G. Loeb, et al. Geophysical Research Letters, June 15, 2021

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL093047

Irish Climate Scientist Speaks Out

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 12, 2021

The 2000 National Climate Misassessment

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 10, 2021

Video How many dire predictions made twenty years ago came true?

Energy in the 21st Century: Resources, Conversions, Costs, Uses, and Consequences

By Vaclav Smil For University of Manitoba, Real Clear Public Affairs, May 1, 2020

https://www.realclearpublicaffairs.com/public_affairs/2020/05/01/energy_in_the_21st_century_resources_conversions_costs_uses_and_consequences_490552.html

Link to study: ENERGY IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY: Resources, Conversions, Costs, Uses, and Consequences

By Vaclav Smil, Annual Review, Energy and Environment, 2000

“Bottom Line: Humankind’s economic advances in the 20th-century are correlated with an unprecedented rise in energy consumption, especially oil. Improved technology, extraction, and transportation significantly reduced energy prices over this period. Hydrocarbons are at the heart of that evolution.”

Green energy is five to ten times more expensive than fossil fuels yet gov’ts falsify the data

The goal of reducing CO2 emissions can be better met by building nuclear plants, but nuclear is blacklisted by the environmental lobby.

By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Via Life Site USA, Oct 22, 2021 [H/t Richard Courtney]

Defending the Orthodoxy

Climate change threatens more than 100 mn people in Africa: UN

By Agnes Pedreo, Geneva (AFP) Oct 19, 2021

https://www.africadaily.net/reports/Climate_change_threatens_more_than_100_mn_people_in_Africa_UN_999.html

Link to UN report: Climate change triggers mounting food insecurity, poverty and displacement in Africa

By Staff, WMO, Oct 19, 2021

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/climate-change-triggers-mounting-food-insecurity-poverty-and-displacement-africa

EM-DAT Disaster Database Creating Data Disasters

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Oct 21, 2021

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above!]

Fossil fuel production must be cut in half to control global warming: study

By, Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 20, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/577592-fossil-fuel-production-must-be-cut-in-half-to-control-global

Link to press release: Governments’ fossil fuel production plans dangerously out of sync with Paris limits

By Staff, UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Oct 20, 2021

https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/governments-fossil-fuel-production-plans-dangerously-out-sync-paris

UN climate report: Africa’s rare glaciers to disappear within two decades

By Jordan Williams, The Hill, Oct 19, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/577340-un-climate-report-africas-rare-glaciers-to-disappear-within

Link to report: State of the Climate in Africa 2020

By UN World Meteorological Organization, 2021

https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10833

[SEPP Comment: Everything is worse in Africa! The UN no longer talks about extreme poverty in Asia, because the problem has been solved by the use of fossil fuels?]

WHO Calls Climate Change ‘Single Biggest Health Threat Facing Humanity’

By Carlie Porterfield, Forbes, Oct 11, 2021

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2021/10/11/who-calls-climate-change-single-biggest-health-threat-facing-humanity/?sh=3ecb1e76375d

Obama joins YouTube special on climate change action

By Judy Kurtz, The Hill, Oct 18, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/577214-obama-joins-youtube-special-on-climate-change

[SEPP Comment: If he believed in the need, why did he buy a home on the waterfront in Nantucket?]

Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science

More than 99.9% of studies agree: Humans caused climate change

Press Release, Cornell University, Oct 19, 2021

https://phys.org/news/2021-10-humans-climate.html

Link to paper: Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature

By Mark Lynas, Benjamin Z Houlton, and Simon Perry, Environmental Research Letters, Oct 19, 2021

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966

The abstract begins: “While controls over the Earth’s climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings.”

[SEPP Comment: Typical survey nonscience. What controls? What testing? Why did climate change before humans? Why not ask if human emissions of CO2 cause 1 to 2 % of climate change, should we stop using fossil fuels?]

Climate purity alarm goes ding! 99% of scientists “believe” because the others got sacked

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 21, 2021

[SEPP Comment: See links immediately above.]

The Irrelevant Climate Change ‘Consensus’

By Anthony Watts, American Thinker, Oct 20, 2021

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/10/the_irrelevant_climate_change_consensus.html

[SEPP Comment: See press release from Cornell above.]

Claim: Climate change caused the devastating floods in part of Brazilian´s Southeast region, study says

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 19, 2021

The Need for All Hydrogen

By Kristine Wiley, Real Clear Energy, October 19, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/10/19/the_need_for_all_hydrogen_799622.html

Questioning the Orthodoxy

Much Pain for Net Zero Gain

By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Oct 13, 2021

Marc Morano Takes on Climate Alarmist Reporter at ICCC-14

By Dan Becka, WUWT, Oct 20, 2021

Video

Column: Do you rip off your shingles before finding out if new ones are available? It’s painful to watch those that do

By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Oct 19, 2021 [H/t WUWT]

Too poor to cut coal use but rich enough to launch hypersonic weapons?

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 20, 2021

Gradually and then suddenly

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2021/10/20/gradually-and-then-suddenly/

Link to: Federal Climate Adaptation Plans

Office of the Federal Chief Sustainability Officer, Council on Environmental Quality, Oct 7, 2021

https://www.sustainability.gov/adaptation/

“Damage and Destroy” Climate Zealots’ Final Solution?

By Richard W. Fulmer, Master Resource, Oct 21, 2021

La la la we can’t hear you

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

“Perhaps they have come to think that genuine climate action means doing without, not solving the problem. Because greens have developed a weird preference for strategies known to fail.”

The Wreck Of The Global Warming Narrative

By I & I Editorial Board, Oct 22, 2021

Would the Real Climate Change Hypocrite Please Stand Up!

By Kevin Mooney, Real Clear Energy, Oct 12, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/10/12/would_the_real_climate_change_hypocrite_please_stand_up_798438.html

“‘ExxonMobil, along with the American Petroleum Institute (API), is deluding itself if it thinks that by supporting a price on carbon it will escape further regulation of its emissions and other so-called climate impacts,’ Cohen [of the National Center for Public Policy Research] said in an email. ‘If the Biden administration, congressional Democrats, and green energy providers get their way, the oil and gas industry will get more taxes and more regulations.’”

After Paris!

U.N. Climate Summit: A Meaningless Meeting Of Useless People

By I & I Editorial Board, Oct 19, 2021

Little Progress On New Climate Targets For COP26

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021

Russian President Putin Another COP26 No Show

By Eric Worrall, WSJ, Oct 22, 2021

“In 2014, during the G20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, the Russian embassy was asked why they had parked a fleet of warships just outside Australian territorial waters. The Russian embassy explained the warships were performing global warming research, though they had a secondary role providing security for the Russian President.”

Change in US Administrations

Here is The Hidden $150 Trillion Agenda Behind The “Crusade” Against Climate Change

By Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge, Oct 14, 2021

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-hidden-150-trillion-agenda-behind-crusade-against-climate-change

Department of Defense Climate Adaptation Plan

By Staff, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Acquisition and Sustainment). Sep 1, 2021.

Climate Change and International Responses Increasing Challenges to US National Security Through 2040

By Staff, National Intelligence Council, 2021

Exclusive: Kerry says legislation not essential to climate goals

By Sara Schonhardt and Jean Chemnick, Climate Wire, Oct 15, 2021

[SEPP Comment: The administration has other ways and doesn’t care if they are Constitutional.]

Biden’s Environmental Plans Aren’t Serious Solutions

By Kat Dwyer, National Review, Oct 5, 2021

https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/10/bidens-environmental-plans-arent-serious-solutions/

“The Biden administration’s climate plans seem to be more about pleasing interest groups than helping the environment.”

Climate-fueled disasters are increasing, FEMA chief warns

By Benjamin J. Hulac, Phys.org, Oct 6, 2021 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]

https://phys.org/news/2021-10-climate-fueled-disasters-fema-chief.html

“With climate change fueling ever more weather-related disasters, the country needs to move away from basing its emergency preparedness plans on historical precedent and seek new models for future threats, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell told lawmakers Tuesday.”

Even If Global Warming Reverses, Climate Alarmists Won’t Let Reality Sway A Useful Narrative

By Chuck DeVore, The Federalist, Via Texas Public Policy Foundation, Oct 7, 2021

It’s the 1970s all over again, and Joe Biden is the new Jimmy Carter

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2021

[SEPP Comment: An opinion in the Washington Post!]

Problems in the Orthodoxy

Developing Countries Say No To Net Zero

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021

“Twenty countries, Algeria, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bhutan, China, Cuba, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe, make up the LMDC group, which has just published this statement:”

China Backtracking?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 16, 2021

Climate summit chief sets up fight over Paris Agreement’s goal

COP26 President Alok Sharma wants to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, but others are aiming for 2 degrees.

By Karl Mathiesen, Politico, Oct 12, 2021

https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-summit-chief-sets-up-fight-over-paris-agreements-goal/

Seeking a Common Ground

How to rev up the UK’s innovation engine

By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Oct 14, 2021

https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/rev-up-our-innovation-engine/

“One of the key elements that is required for innovation to flourish is freedom. By that I mean the freedom for trial and error, particularly the freedom to experiment, to be wrong, to fail, to start again. This freedom for entrepreneurs was a feature of 17th to 19th century Britain, not just the North East where I live, but across the UK, making it quite distinct from continental Europe (except Holland).”

Science, Policy, and Evidence

Figueres: First time the world economy is transformed intentionally

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Towards poverty for all but the privileged!]

NIH Admits to Funding Gain-of-Function Research in Wuhan, Says EcoHealth Violated Reporting Requirements

By Caroline Downey, National Review, Oct 21, 2021

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/nih-admits-to-funding-gain-of-function-research-in-wuhan-says-ecohealth-violated-reporting-requirements/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=breaking&utm_campaign=newstrack&utm_term=25414563

Why Bad Climate Legislation Is Worse Than No Climate Legislation

Moderate Democratic Senators Joe Manchin & Krysten Sinema Are Right to Oppose the Clean Energy Performance Program

By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Oct 17, 2021

https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/why-bad-climate-legislation-is-worse?s=03

Measurement Issues — Surface

Transport Of Tropical Ocean Heat Causes An Over Estimation Of The Global Average Temperature

By Jim Steele, Video, WUWT, Oct 19, 2021

Transcript: How Transport Of Tropical Ocean Heat Causes An Over Estimation Of The Global Average Temperature

By Jim Steele, A walk On The Natural Side, Oct 17, 2021

The U.S. Could Have Wildfire Smoke Radar

Imagine the ability to determine the three-dimensional distribution of wildfire smoke across the United States in real-time.

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 10, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/the-us-could-have-wildfire-smoke-radar.html

Inconvenient Tornado Data Disappears

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 13, 2021

[SEPP Comment: NOAA at it again!]

Study warns of extreme heat in growing cities

By Jordan Williams, The Hill, Oct 21, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/577772-study-warns-of-extreme-heat-in-growing-cities

Global urban population exposure to extreme heat

By Cascade Tuholske, et al. PNAS, Oct 12, 2021

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/41/e2024792118.short?rss%3D1

[SEPP Comment: But no need to adjust urban thermometers for this urban extreme heat when calculating global surface temperatures!]

Changing Weather

Weatherbell winter outlook

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2021/10/20/weatherbell-winter-outlook/

Analysis: Hurricanes Have Not Gotten More Intense, Frequent Over Past 170 Years

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 10, 2021

No increase in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1860

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Also discusses how NOAA is manipulating tornado data.]

Update on the Strongest Coastal Cyclone in Northwest History and an Introduction to Pacific Cyclones. All in my New Podcast

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 22, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/update-on-strongest-coastal-cyclone-in.html

Podcast, Major mid-latitude cyclone coming to US Pacific Northwest driven by significant north-south pressure gradient. Stronger storms occur in the Gulf of Alaska, but not offshore of the US Pacific Northwest. Two days out, the weather models do not converge, making prediction of worst impact impossible.

Very Powerful Storm To Impact The West Coast From Sunday Into Monday…Same System Can Result In A Mid-Week Severe Weather Outbreak And An East Coast Storm By Late Next Week

By Paul Dorian, WUWT, Oct 22, 2021

Saving California

By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 19, 2021

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/10/saving-california.html

[SEPP Comment: Most reservoirs are far below historic norms.]

Weather vs. Alarmism

By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Oct 20, 2021

Changing Climate

Figuring out the lack of connection between CO2 and ice ages

By Ralph Ellis, American Thinker, Oct 12, 2021 [H/t Jim Karlock]

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/10/figuring_out_the_lack_of_connection_between_co2_and_ice_ages.html

[SEPP Comment: Another issue is the ending of warm periods, when cooling occurs first followed by decline in CO2.]

Changing Seas

Bogus De-Oxygenation Crisis

By Jim Steele, WUWT, Oct 10, 2021

Video: Discussing Dead Zones, (Eutrophic areas) ICUN, Upwellings increased off Peru

Low oxygen levels along Pacific Northwest coast a ‘silent’ climate change crisis

By Michala Garrison, Seattle Times, Sep 28, 2021 [H/t Mark Albright]

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/low-oxygen-levels-along-pacific-northwest-coast-a-silent-climate-change-crisis/

[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above debunking the claim.]

GBR, Indian Ocean, South China Sea Corals Have Experienced No Obvious Modern Warming

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 21, 2021

Link to one paper: Assessing multiproxy approaches (Sr/Ca, U/Ca, Li/Mg, and B/Mg) to reconstruct sea surface temperature from coral skeletons throughout the Great Barrier Reef

By Yang Wu, et al. Science of the Total Environment

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969721024645

Link to second paper: El Niño–Southern Oscillation and internal sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Indian Ocean since 1675

By Maike Leupold, et al. Climate of the Past, Jan 15, 2021

https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/17/151/2021/

[SEPP Comment: Slight rise in Max and Min temps with data going back to 1871 contradicting PAGES2k nonscience in UN IPCC AR6 SPM.]

Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice

Antarctic Temperatures Were ‘Up To 5°C Above Modern’ From 12,000–2,000 Years BP

By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 7, 2021

Link to new study: The Dependence of Internal Multidecadal Variability in the Southern Ocean on the Ocean Background Mean State

By Liping Zhang, et al. Journal of Climate, Feb 1, 2021

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/jcliD200049/jcliD200049.xml

How Antarctica Caused Global Cooling or Why Earth Remains in Ice Age Mode for Next 200 Million Years

By Jim Steele, WUWT, Oct 10, 2021

[SEPP Comment: An unusual presentation of the importance of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current influencing the general cooling over the past 50 million years,]

Churchill problem polar bear reports finally completed and posted online

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 8, 2021

Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine

Increase Meat and Dairy Prices to Tackle Climate Change, Cambridge Report Demands

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 11, 2021

Lowering Standards

But but the models…

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

https://climatediscussionnexus.com/2021/10/20/but-but-the-models/

“The chair of the Nobel Committee for Physics, Thors Hans Hansson, waved away the uncertainty by insisting that ‘We can predict what is happening with the climate in the future if we know how to encode the chaotic weather’. But we reply as the Spartans did to Philip of Macedon, ‘If’. (In fact we will add that the IPCC’s admission was not just that weather is chaotic but so is climate, which makes the challenge infinitely harder.) And we’ll believe it when the predictions are more accurate than random guesses rather than worse, as they typically are now.”

[SEPP Comment: To Philip’s statement: “If I invade Lankonia you will be destroyed, never to rise again.” Sparta’s reply was simple: “If”!]

NSF Statement on 2021 Nobel Laureates in Science

Press Release, NSF, Oct 12, 2021

https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?WT.mc_ev=click&WT.mc_id=USNSF_51&cntn_id=303657&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

The Nobel Prize In Climate

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 21, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/10/the-nobel-prize-in-climate/

Video, from 2007 to 2021, it makes no difference if predictions are true

Adapt or Die, Warns [UK] Environment Agency

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 13, 2021

Net-zero Carbon is Harming the Poor in Africa

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 15, 2021

“Natural gas is in short supply in Europe, while huge reserves are ready for development in Africa.

“Why aren’t European companies, which represent 4 of the 5 largest holders of reserves, actively engaged in developing these badly needed natural gas reserves?”

AEP Falls For The New IEA Outlook

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 18, 2021

Link to: Report extract: Executive Summary: A new global energy economy is emerging, but the transformation still has a long way to go

By Staff, World Energy Outlook, 2021

https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2021/executive-summary

[SEPP Comment: Sample of the IEA gibberish: “At the moment, however, every data point showing the speed of change in energy can be countered by another showing the stubbornness of the status quo.”]

Met Office Forecast Wetter/Drier & Colder/Warmer Winters

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 8, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?

Rich should pay for greater carbon footprint: study

By AFP Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Oct 21, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Rich_should_pay_for_greater_carbon_footprint_study_999.html

[SEPP Comment: A search of the web site of the World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics failed to reveal a recent study on the topic. However, it revealed the following]

Climate Change & The Global Inequality of Carbon Emissions: 1990-2020

By Lucas Chancel, World Inequality Lab, Oct 18, 2021

https://wid.world/document/climate-change-the-global-inequality-of-carbon-emissions-1990-2020-world-inequality-lab-working-paper-2021-21/

[SEPP Comment: Punish industrialized countries for making plant life flourish.]

Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.

New European Rainfall Record?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2021

No, CNN, Wildfires Will Not Be Destroying Times Square, New York City

By James Taylor, Climate Realism, October 15, 2021

AEP Loses The Plot (Again)!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Headline of story by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is “Technology saves us: Oxford sees a $26 trillion gain for net zero; Decarbonisation is no global burden, but a bonanza for those quick to seize it.”]

The Scotsman Lies About Sea Level Rise

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 12, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?

Half of America doesn’t even want to spend $1 a month extra on green electricity or fuel

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 15, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.

Who are the Deniers?

By Staff, Governor’s Office of Planning and Research, California, Accessed Oct 11, 2021

https://opr.ca.gov/facts/the-deniers.html

Opening sentence: “If the experts agree on the existence and causes of climate change, why do some public opinion polls find that only about half or less than half of the American public is convinced that emissions from human activities bear responsibility?”

Second and third sentences: “A small but vocal group has aggressively spread misinformation about the science, aiming to cast doubt on well-established findings and conclusions. Their goal is to create confusion and uncertainty, thereby preventing meaningful action to remedy the problem.”

Joe Manchin accused of lining his pockets instead of listening to West Virginians on coal

By Barnini Chakraborty, Washington Examiner, Oct 14, 2021

https://news.yahoo.com/joe-manchin-accused-lining-pockets-110000513.html

New York Times Threatens Senator Manchin With Witchcraft If He Obstructs Democrat “Climate” Agenda

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 19, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-10-18-new-york-times-threatens-senator-manchin-with-witchcraft-if-he-obstructs-democrat-climate-agenda

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda

Protecting the ozone layer is delivering vast health benefits

Americans will be spared 443 million skin cancer cases, 63 million cataract cases

Press Release, NSF, Oct 21,2021

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_1&cntn_id=303738&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

Link to report: Protecting the ozone layer is delivering vast health benefits

Montreal Protocol will spare Americans from 443 million skin cancer cases

By David Hosansky, NCAR/UCAR, Oct 6, 2021

https://news.ucar.edu/132812/protecting-ozone-layer-delivering-vast-health-benefits

Link to study: Estimation of Skin and Ocular Damage Avoided in the United States through Implementation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer

By Sasha Madronich, et al. ACS Earth Space Chemistry, Aug 10, 2021

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.1c00183

[SEPP Comment: The Montreal Protocol as adjusted prevented exponential growth in US melanoma starting in 2020! But the claimed “ozone hole” is increasing. More NSF funded statistical drivel used to show a false need for international agreements!]

Rex Murphy: This energy crisis has been 30 years in the making. Why is anyone surprised?

None of the elite bound for the grand climate shindig in Glasgow have to worry about unmeetable energy bills

By Rex Murphy, National Post, Canada, Oct 13, 2021

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-this-energy-crisis-has-been-30-years-in-the-making-why-is-anyone-surprised

“Winter is coming and the grim iceberg is heading towards the great ship.”

Despite Media Hype, This Year’s Wildfires Don’t Top One You’ve Never Heard Of

By William D.  Balgord, Townhall, Oct 8, 2021

https://townhall.com/columnists/williamdbalgord/2021/10/08/despite-media-hype-this-years-wildfires-dont-top-one-youve-never-heard-of-n2596950

Parasitic Ingrate Journalist? Well-Paid German Public Television Director Ecstatic Over Painful Energy Prices

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 19, 2021

The “director at ARD German public television, which is funded in most part by legally mandatory license fees levied on every German household” said:

“It’s there, the price shock. Good! Only when oil and gas are markedly more expensive, will we be able to get global warming under control. More wind and solar energy? We can’t wait that long, and so we should be happy that we are being forced to alter our consumer production, heat more sparingly. use less energy for the household, no short flights…”

Fifty Years Since The Demise Of The Great Barrier Reef

By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 21, 2021

https://realclimatescience.com/2021/10/fifty-years-since-the-demise-of-the-great-barrier-reef/

Ironbridge–The Birthplace Of Climate Change!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 17, 2021

“Now the Ironbridge Museum has gone woke!”

Most Chukchi Sea ice in 20 years means no walrus feasts for polar bears at famous Russian cliffs

By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Oct 20, 2021

Prince Charles Adds to His List of Climate Last Chances

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 13, 2021

Sky News Doomsday Climate Report Flooded with Misleading Sea Rise Claims–Guido

By Gaia Fawkes, His Blog, Oct 12, 2021 [H/t Paul Homewood]

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children

The weeping voice of misled youth

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda

Greta Blames Britain For Climate Change

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 19, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Britain started the Industrial Revolution, and according to the UN IPCC, climate change did not start until the Industrial Revolution!]

Expanding the Orthodoxy

Millions of lives could be saved by aggressive efforts to cut emissions: doctors

By Jordan Williams, The Hill, Oct 21, 2021

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/577765-millions-of-lives-could-be-saved-by-aggressive-efforts-to-cut

Link to Lancet Countdown: The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and

climate change: code red for a healthy future

By Marina Romanello, et al. Lancet, Oct 20, 2021

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2821%2901787-6

Questioning European Green

Where the policy of decarbonising the economy is taking us

Commentary by Alexander Tomský, The Reference Frame, Oct 11, 2021

https://motls.blogspot.com/2021/10/where-policy-of-decarbonising-economy.html

“The ideology of total decarbonisation of the world is totally unrealistic, it is the science fiction of a sick mind, even the Western advanced economy is not capable of completely replacing fossil fuels at today’s technical level, unless – and this is an incomprehensible question – we return to building nuclear power stations, which ideological unreason forbids.”

Opinion: Europe made its energy bed and now must sleep in it — shivering

Price spikes have consequences

By: Mark Milke and Lennie Kaplan, Financial Post (Canada), Oct 13, 2021

https://financialpost.com/opinion/opinion-europe-made-its-energy-bed-and-now-must-sleep-in-it-shivering

What Green Job Revolution?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021

Questioning Green Elsewhere

Why NY’s proposed ‘Green Amendment’ could devastate the state’s economy

By James B. Meigs, New York Post, Oct 20, 2021

https://nypost.com/2021/10/20/why-nys-proposed-green-amendment-could-devastate-states-economy/

Green Jobs

UK’s Johnson outlines 30,000 green jobs boost

by AFP Staff Writers

London (AFP) Oct 18, 2021

https://www.energy-daily.com/reports/UKs_Johnson_outlines_30000_green_jobs_boost_999.html

Johnson said the project off the east coast of England, involving Iberdrola subsidiary Scottish Power, would supply enough energy to power 2.7 million homes, and create 7,000 jobs.

[SEPP Comment: How many non-green jobs will unreliable part-time electricity destroy?]

Funding Issues

Investors Are Steering Away From Oil & Gas

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 14, 2021

“It goes to the heart of the energy crisis:”

Litigation Issues

Norwegian wind farms violate rights of Sámi reindeer herders, says court Access to the

By Euronews with AFP, Oct 11, 2021

https://www.euronews.com/2021/10/11/norwegian-wind-farms-violate-rights-of-sami-reindeer-herders-says-court

“The Roan and Storheia wind farms in western Norway are part of Europe’s largest onshore wind energy project and were first unveiled in 2010.”

Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes

World leaders [OECD] reach landmark deal on a global corporate tax rate

By Silvia Amaro, CNBC, Oct 8, 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/oecd-reaches-deal-on-corporate-tax-after-ireland-agrees.html

“Yellen applauded the many nations who ‘decided to end the race to the bottom on corporate taxation,’ and expressed hope that Congress will use the reconciliation process to quickly put the deal into practice in the U.S.”

[SEPP Comment: The OECD is the world? Did US Secretary of Treasury Yellen ever see an expansion of tax and spend she opposed?]

World Faces Fiscal Problems Much Worse Than Those From Covid, OECD Warns

By William Horobin, Bloomberg, Oct 19, 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-19/world-faces-fiscal-problems-dwarfing-those-from-covid-oecd-says

Australians voted for “No Carbon Tax” but may get Net Zero deal anyhow. Thank China, and US Voters (who probably didn’t vote for it either)

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2021

Green taxes on home heating could cause a public health crisis and trigger social disaster, Boris Johnson is warned

By Staff, GWPF, via Net Zero Watch, Oct 9, 2021

It’s Time for America to Embrace Carbon Border Adjustments

By Bob Inglis & John Sweeney, Real Clear Energy, Oct 21, 2021

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2021/10/21/its_time_for_america_to_embrace_carbon_border_adjustments_799993.html

[SEPP Comment: Inglis, a former Congressman from South Carolina, frequently used eggs pickled in vinegar to falsely warn against CO2 causing acidic waters. Apparently, he had no idea that many “black water” streams and bogs in South Carolina had true acidic waters, yet non-specialized amphibians, fish, and other wildlife thrive there.]

Energy Issues – Non-US

Useless Green Energy Hitting The Wall

By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 13, 2021

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2021-10-13-useless-green-energy-hitting-the-wall

Link to report: The International Energy Outlook 2021

By Staff, US EIA, Oct 6, 2021

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/

“If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth.”

Global Warming Alarmism Threatens Era of Energy Poverty

By Vijay Jayaraj, Real Clear Markets, Oct 1, 2021

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2021/10/01/global_warming_alarmism_threatens_era_of_energy_poverty_796925.html

‘Tis The Silly Season With A Looming Winter Of (Energy) Discontent

By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, Oct 11, 2021

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tilakdoshi/2021/10/11/tis-the-silly-season-with-a-looming-winter-of-energy-discontent/?sh=975b329399c3

Energy Issues – UK

Treasury Net Zero Review

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021

Link to: Net Zero Review Final Report

Analysis exploring the key issues as the UK decarbonises.

From: HM Treasury, Oct 19, 2021

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero-review-final-report

“They rightly agree that we cannot possibly forecast what the economy will be like in thirty years time, but then proceed anyway to discuss possible economic growth and green jobs that might result from the Net Zero agenda.

Telegraph Calls For Referendum On Net Zero

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021

Net Zero Damp Squib

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 22, 2021

Link to: UK’s path to net zero set out in landmark strategy

The Net Zero Strategy sets out how the UK will deliver on its commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

By Staffs, Multiple Agencies, Oct 19, 2021

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-path-to-net-zero-set-out-in-landmark-strategy

“reducing Britain’s reliance on imported fossil fuels will protect consumers from global price spikes by boosting clean energy”

[SEPP Comment: And when “clean energy” does not deliver on a still night?]

Energy rationing is on the horizon, warns GWPF

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021

Link to: Survival of the Richest: Smart Meters and Energy Rationing

By Andrew Montford, GWPF, 2021

Review Of Heat Pump Running Costs

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 21, 2021

“Time then to review the costs, given the rise in energy costs this year.”

[SEPP Comment: A tutorial on efficiency of heat pumps in Britain.]

Government’s years of irresponsible neglect has left Britain “at mercy of Putin”

By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Oct 18, 2021

Government refusal of North Sea natural gas field is irrational

By Staff, GWPF, Via Net Zero, Oct 8, 2021

The Heat Pump Con

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 20, 2021

Can the UK decarbonise power by 2035?

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 11, 2021

Briefing: The Heat and Buildings Strategy

By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Oct 19, 2021

Britain faces bleak winter of soaring energy costs: Gas prices rise by 37% TODAY pushing more firms to brink of collapse, National Grid boss warns of electricity shortages and experts predict bills will soar to £1,700 a year

By Martin Robinson, Daily Mail, Oct 6, 2021

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10063781/Britains-energy-crisis-deepens-gas-prices-soar-FIFTH-time-high.html?mc_cid=0f39532e31&mc_eid=2206e9995b

Business Secretary misleads on Net Zero costs

By Staff, Net Zero Watch, Oct 21, 2021

Energy Issues – Australia

Coal power will exit early say experts as two largest countries on Earth battle over coal supplies

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 12, 2021

What Coal Price Surge? Climate Council Predicts 20,000 Jobs to Go

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 13, 2021

Queensland Government Backs Coal and Green Hydrogen

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 11, 2021

Energy Issues — US

Challenges of the clean energy transition

By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Oct 22, 2021

More Unreported Hidden Costs

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 19, 2021

[SEPP Comment: New NGCC plants could operate at a capacity factor (CF) of about 80% yet forced to back-up solar and wind they are far less efficient with an average CF of 57%. A clear waste of energy.]

Will The U.S. Be Spared From The Global Energy Crisis?

By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Oct 12, 2021

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Will-The-US-Be-Spared-From-The-Global-Energy-Crisis.html

“The United States simply has not had to rely on the rest of the world to provide its energy supply, and that’s really what Europe’s problem has been.”

Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?

U.S. Likely to Ask OPEC for More Oil Supplies, Yergin Says

By Gerson Freitas Jr. and David Westin, Bloomberg, Oct 11, 2021

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-likely-ask-opec-more-174410816.html

[SEPP Comment: If it happens, it is a demonstration of an incompetent administration.]

Return of King Coal?

Vijay Jayaraj: Coal Shortages Threaten Blackouts for 2.7 Billion Chinese and Indians

By Vijay Jayaraj, Reactionary Times News, Oct 11, 2021

https://www.reactionarytimes.com/vijay-jayaraj-coal-shortages-threaten-blackouts-for-2-7-billion-chinese-and-indians/

“Analysts say that major contributors to this shortage are China’s restrictions on coal use, the higher coal price, and the post-pandemic increase in electricity demand.”

“Nevertheless, rising coal prices will cause headaches that likely will worsen with the approaching winter, when China burns the highest amount of the fuel. So far in 2021, global coal prices have registered a 249% increase over last year.”

BBC Climate Expert Explains How Australia Could Live Without Coal Exports

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 22, 2021

Massive Floods add to China’s Climate Policy Coal Crisis

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 12, 2021

Nuclear Energy and Fears

Suddenly Nuclear Energy is popular

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 13, 2021

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind

Transition to Nowhere

California’s switch to a primarily solar and wind-powered grid is a dead end.

By Mark P. Mills, City Journal, Oct 20, 2021

https://www.city-journal.org/california-switch-to-primarily-solar-and-wind-powered-grid-is-dead-end

Wind Speeds Drop As They Speed Up!

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2021

Climate Change Causes EXTREME CALM!

By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 12, 2021

Crabs are just another victim of Wind turbines thanks to EMF pollution from undersea cables

By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 16, 2021

The promise and perils of the solar energy boom

India’s solar power capacity is growing, and quick. And its struggle to meet ambitious targets is a global problem

Lou Del Bello, Wired, Oct 15, 2021

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/india-solar-power

“This is Bhadla Solar Park in India’s Rajasthan state, currently the biggest such facility in the world. It has a capacity of 2.25 gigawatts (GW) spread across over 56 square kilometres – at full capacity it can power four and a half million homes. Bhadla has ushered in a golden age of cheap, abundant solar energy in India. It’s a beacon of success – but also a warning.”

[SEPP Comment: It does not work at night?]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other

Can Biofuels Replace Jet Fuel?

By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Oct 12, 2021

Getting the Vapours Over ‘Green’ Hydrogen

By Peter O’Brien, Quadrant, Oct 16, 2021

Hydrogen boiler revolution ‘pretty much impossible’, says minister

By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2021

From oil to renewables, winds of change blow on Scottish islands

By Veronique Dupont, Lerwick, United Kingdom (AFP) Oct 18, 2021

https://www.winddaily.com/reports/From_oil_to_renewables_winds_of_change_blow_on_Scottish_islands_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Another attempt at tides generating electricity.]

Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage

On the storage of renewable electricity

By Professor Peter Edwards FRS & Professor Peter Dobson OBE, University of Oxford; Dr Gari Owen, Annwvyn Solutions, Net Zero Watch, Oct 12, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Building storage for “renewables” will cost more than the total UK annual budget.]

Carbon Schemes

Kemper Coal Gasification & Storage Plant Imploded (Obama’s climate ‘centerpiece’ bites the dust)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 13, 2021

Lone CC&S Coal Project Closed (NRG rate base boondoggle)

By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Oct 12, 2021

“News flash: The billion-dollar Petra Nova Coal Carbon Capture System (CCCS) outside of Houston, enabled by a $190 million U.S. Department of Energy grant, has announced closure.”

Climate: Removing CO2 from the air no longer optional

By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP) Oct 19, 2021

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Climate_Removing_CO2_from_the_air_no_longer_optional_999.html

“BECCS [bioenergy with carbon capture and storage] was penciled into IPCC climate models more than a decade ago as the theoretically cheapest form of negative emissions but has barely developed since.”

California Dreaming

Net Zero California Governor Just Banned Backup Generators and Fire Pumps

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 11, 2021

GE Gas Turbines Installed to Support California Power Supply

By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Oct 6, 2021

Health, Energy, and Climate

EPA U.S. Heat Wave, Heat & Cold Death Rate Data Exposes & Destroys Biden & Democrats “Extreme Heat” Propaganda

By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 12, 2021

A timely reminder that cold kills

By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 20, 2021

Other Scientific News

Researchers studying planets’ atmospheres reveal new information about Saturn-like exoplanet

Exoplanet’s atmospheric temperature and winds much higher than prior estimations

By Staff, NSF, Oct 19, 2021

https://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?WT.mc_id=USNSF_1&cntn_id=303706&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery

Link to paper: Detection of Ionized Calcium in the Atmosphere of the Ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b

By Emily K. Deibert, et al., The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Sep 28, 2021

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/2041-8213/ac2513

From the abstract: “Recent observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter WASP-76b have revealed a diversity of atmospheric species. Here we present new high-resolution transit spectroscopy of WASP-76b with GRACES at the Gemini North Observatory, serving as a baseline for the Large and Long Program “Exploring the Diversity of Exoplanet Atmospheres at High Spectral Resolution” (Exoplanets with Gemini Spectroscopy, or ExoGemS for short).”

[SEPP Comment: NSF funds NCAR, which ignores spectroscopy for study of the earth’s atmosphere, yet it funds studies using spectroscopy for studies of other planets?]

Helium: South Africa strikes new ‘gold’

By Linda Givetash, Virginia, South Africa (AFP) Oct 20, 2021

https://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/Helium_South_Africa_strikes_new_gold_999.html

[SEPP Comment: Rare natural gas with up to 12% helium. Commercial helium extraction plants require 0.3% and the rare helium rich fields in the US may have concentration up to 5 or 10% with little methane.]

Other News that May Be of Interest

Origins of domesticated horses traced to north Caucasus region, study finds

By Brian P. Dunleavy, Washington DC (UPI) Oct 20, 2021

https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Origins_of_domesticated_horses_traced_to_north_Caucasus_region_study_finds_999.html

Link to paper: The origins and spread of domestic horses from the Western Eurasian steppes

By Pablo Librado, et al., Nature, Oct 20, 2021

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04018-9

BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE

When 2 Parents Tried To Make Their Young Daughter Practice What Greta Preaches…All Hell Broke Loose!

By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 15, 2021

Laughing at climate hysteria

By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 22, 2021

https://www.cfact.org/2021/10/22/laughing-at-climate-hysteria/

Behold the walrus publicity stunt the WWF calls ‘science’

By Susan Crockford, Her Blog, Oct 18, 2021

Claim: Immigrants and Robots Can Ease the Climate Transition to a Reduced Population

By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 11, 2021

[SEPP Comment: Will the robots be cuddly?]

ARTICLES

1. Oops, Boris Johnson Told the Truth About Climate

Voters are still in the dark about what they have to do to cut emissions. Finally a politician is telling them.

By Joseph C. Sternberg, WSJ, Oct. 21, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oops-boris-johnson-truth-climate-energy-prices-costs-11634826979?mod=hp_opin_pos_3#cxrecs_s

TWTW Summary: The article is described in the main text.

2. Partisan Science in America

Scientists corrode public trust when they pretend to have authority on social and political matters.

By Gary Saul Morson, WSJ, Oct. 11, 2021

https://www.wsj.com/articles/partisan-science-antiscience-facts-misrepresentation-fauci-lancet-lab-leak-11633960740?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

TWTW Summary: The professor of Slavic languages and literature at Northwestern University writes:

“Medieval thinkers pretending to infallibility often claimed to have received a direct revelation from God. Since the 19th century, secular thinkers have invoked science. As Anthony Fauci said in June, ‘a lot of what you’re seeing as attacks on me, quite frankly are attacks on science.’

“One can often tell that an appeal to science is unwarranted without knowing anything about the science in question. If science is treated as a solid block, each part of which is as indubitable as all the others, then science has been misunderstood. Science always contains some propositions less firmly grounded than others: on the frontier, newly discovered, based on experiments not readily replicated.

“Some parts of climate science have been tested countless times—like the greenhouse effect—but specific predictions about rising temperatures and their effects have often proved mistaken. Early last year we were treated to the delightful spectacle of Montana’s Glacier National Park removing signs that said its glaciers would be gone by 2020. Some scientific statements prove false; that’s how science works. Those who claim that to doubt any part of the consensus is to be ‘antiscience’ or ‘a denier’ are themselves being unscientific.

“Science operates by a process of criticism. Scientists don’t experience divine revelations, they propose hypotheses that they and others test. This rigorous process of testing gives science the persuasiveness that mere journalism lacks. If a scientific periodical expels editors or peer reviewers because they don’t accept some prevailing theory, that process has been short-circuited. Those who call for such expulsions have missed the whole point of how science works. They are the true deniers, far more dangerous to science than a religious fundamentalist who believes the world is 6,000 years old.

“When researchers fear losing a grant or being subject to personal attack if they question a predominant belief, that belief no longer rests on scientific grounds. True or false, it is superstition in scientific clothing. Science has been replaced with what the Soviets called ‘partisan science.’

“To doubt a scientist is not to doubt science. Quite the contrary, personal authority is precisely what science dispenses with, as much as possible. Dr. Fauci’s assertion of authority creates skepticism about all his assertions—legitimately, because the distinction between science and a particular scientist is essential. To be sure, nonscientists often have to trust scientists to inform them what the science has discovered. But that is all the more reason that scientists bear the responsibility of not letting political or other nonscientific criteria affect their explication.”

The author discusses possible sources of COVID, which Dr. Fauci tried to suppress and writes:

“Solidarity is a social, not scientific, category, and a judgment as to whether scientists in an authoritarian regime have been pressured is also not a scientific one. Anyone who has studied Marxist-Leninist regimes knows that it is possible that the ‘solidarity’ is not with the scientists but with the authorities supervising them.

“To explain their earlier statement, the scientists remind us that ‘we have observed escalations of conflicts that pit many parties against one another, including central government versus local government, young versus old, rich versus poor, people of colour versus white people, and health priorities versus the economy.’ To justify a scientific claim with such socially charged considerations is, again, partisan science. To the extent that scientific claims are informed by political considerations, they are no more well-founded than purely political ones.

“If scientists expect their statements to be trusted, they must themselves be trustworthy in making them. One had better be scrupulously honest before asking people to surrender their own judgment and simply believe what they are told. Scientists should be especially careful not to misrepresent political or policy judgments as being scientific. And they must protest vigorously and loudly when other influential people claim to speak in the name of science while misrepresenting it.

“Dr. Fauci admitted that he first stated that masks were ineffective in part because there was a shortage of masks and he wanted to preserve them for medical workers, who needed them most. He doesn’t seem to have considered: Once he shades the truth for a reason of policy, why shouldn’t reasonable people assume his other statements are based on policy considerations rather than science?

“Perhaps the clearest sign that a scientist, or anyone else, is misrepresenting science is a confusion of a science with political or social claims that it is thought to imply. That is what social Darwinists and Soviet dialectical materialists did. Such claims are never scientific. They are a clear sign of pseudoscience. One must argue for or against the social or political implications of a scientific discovery in the same way as for any social or political ideas.

“When President Biden, or a politician from any part of the political spectrum, claims he is only ‘following the science,’ one can be sure that he isn’t. Should we lock down? Lockdowns, like any other policy, entail costs as well as benefits. How do we weigh them? Not by epidemiology, which has nothing to say about the costs to children, small businesses, performing artists and human enjoyment generally. Science can inform a policy decision, but whatever judgment one makes, it cannot be based wholly on the science.

“When reasonable people cease to trust science in one case, how will one persuade them in another? By the end of the Soviet Union, almost no one trusted government statements about natural disasters or man-made catastrophes like Chernobyl. How will we handle the next crisis about which scientific understanding has something to contribute when scientists are known to base statements on policy preferences? That is part of the cost of the Lancet scientists’ accusation and of Dr. Fauci’s lack of candor.

“The greater danger to the public’s trust in science comes not from the uneducated but from politicians and journalists who claim to speak in the name of science. Still more, it comes from scientists themselves, either because of what they say publicly in the name of science or their failure to correct others’ misrepresentations of it.”

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Ireneusz Palmowski
October 25, 2021 2:42 am

Another low from the north will reach the west coast. Authorities should prepare retention reservoirs.comment image

michel
October 25, 2021 3:01 am

Never, ever, under any circumstances whatsoever, tell the public in one go how much they’ll have to pay and how much of their ordinary lives they’ll have to change to rein in emissions.

Also, never, ever…. state how much effect your proposed measures will have on global emissions and on global warming.

The answer, as the UK is slowly coming to understand, is spend a fortune on measures which are impossible to implement, and which even were they possible will have no effect at all.

Both parties in the UK appear to have gone mad. There is no real political scrutiny of or opposition to this insanity.

Bill Everett
Reply to  michel
October 25, 2021 7:17 am

Am I incorrect in thinking that the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is .0004% not .04%?

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Bill Everett
October 25, 2021 9:25 am

No!

Rick C
Reply to  Bill Everett
October 25, 2021 10:31 am

Yes. 400 ppm / 1,000,000 = 0.0004 x100 = 0.04%

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Rick C
October 25, 2021 3:32 pm

Yes, you are right. I was thrown off by the double negative.

Bill Everett
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
October 28, 2021 7:01 pm

.04×1000000=40000

Bill Everett
Reply to  Rick C
October 28, 2021 6:50 pm

Why do you multiply .0004 by 100?

Bill Everett
Reply to  Bill Everett
October 28, 2021 9:11 pm

I see your point. .04% would be read as 4/100th of one percent.

Ebor
October 25, 2021 8:01 am

The Svenmark paper on cosmic rays is huge if it’s accurate – it suggests 2 orders magnitude greater forcing (1.7 W/m2) from cosmic rays versus IPCC’s “high confidence” that it’s only 0.1 W/m2. Oops, IPCC, you may need to tweek those models again.

Ebor
Reply to  Ebor
October 25, 2021 9:04 am

Oops myself – that should be *one* order of magnitude…

DMA
October 25, 2021 8:30 am

“Number of the Week: Twenty Years. For twenty years, from the time the IPCC published AR3 in 2001 to its publication of AR6 in 2021, it has uncritically accepted faulty science, as demonstrated by Ross McKitrick’s publication of the faulty statistical methods to attribute climate change to humans”
Ed Berry’s analysis of the effect of human emissions on atmospheric CO2 shows that the IPCC central physical assumption: 100%of the recent increase in atmospheric CO2 is human caused”, is also incorrect as it is about 25% not 100%

Clyde Spencer
October 25, 2021 9:22 am

Fossil fuel production must be cut in half to control global warming: study

I have previously made the point that there is no evidence that the 2020 reduction in anthropogenic emissions, at least 18% in April, did not result in any measurable change in either the total seasonal high, or the rate of increase during the Winter ramp-up.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/06/11/contribution-of-anthropogenic-co2-emissions-to-changes-in-atmospheric-concentrations/

Today, there was a BBC article posted on Yahoo News that the 2020 “… amounts of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide rose by more than the annual average in the past 10 years.”
https://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-greenhouse-gas-concentrations-094707831.html

This suggests to me that if the agent supposedly responsible for increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 decreased during a given year, but the concentration actually increased, something else is driving the change!

This is anathema to the claim that humans are responsible for the annual increases in what is considered by alarmists to be the ‘control knob’ on warming.

The alternative scenario is that if the rate of CO2 build-up in the atmosphere had decreased in 2020, and the year had been cooler, then the course of action to reduce warming would be obvious. However, that isn’t what happened! In short, we are expected to accept the claims of alarmists without any corroborating evidence that required sacrifices will be rewarded with the hoped for results.

Anthony Banton
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
October 25, 2021 9:46 am

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/carbon-dioxide-levels-continue-record-levels-despite-covid-19-lockdown

2020 Trends
The Global Carbon Project estimated that during the most intense period of the shutdown, daily CO2 emissions may have been reduced by up to 17% globally due to the confinement of the population. As the duration and severity of confinement measures remain unclear, the prediction of the total annual emission reduction over 2020 is very uncertain.
Preliminary estimates indicate a reduction in the annual global emission between 4.2% and 7.5%. At the global scale, an emissions reduction this scale will not cause atmospheric CO2 to go down. CO2 will continue to go up, though at a slightly reduced pace (0.08-0.23 ppm per year lower). This falls well within the 1 ppm natural inter-annual variability. This means that on the short-term the impact of the COVID-19 confinements cannot be distinguished from natural variability, according to the Bulletin.”

TonyL
Reply to  Anthony Banton
October 25, 2021 10:48 am

“This falls well within the 1 ppm natural inter-annual variability.”
Very true.
However, the one year 1 ppm cycle is quite regular, driven by the annual seasonal cycle and plant growth, primarily in the northern hemisphere.
Here we are in Oct., 2021. with the decrease some months behind us already. The decrease should be visible by now, and become even more apparent as more monthly data comes in, following the annual cycle.
But so far, nothing. Stay tuned.

Clyde Spencer
Reply to  Anthony Banton
October 25, 2021 12:05 pm

CO2 will continue to go up, though at a slightly reduced pace (0.08-0.23 ppm per year lower).

However, that didn’t happen. A more sensitive test than the annual net change is the rate of growth during the seasonal ramp-up phase when the impact of sinks is minimal. Some years do show a pause in growth. However, not 2020!

As to the issue of the natural inter-annual variability, the graph for 2019-2020 is almost identical to 2018-2019, with respect to range and slope for the ramp-up phase. Differences are much less than the average annual variability; see Fig. 3.

Did you read my linked article, or at least look at the graphs? If so, you did not respond to the substance of my remarks, which is that the first-derivative of the monthly concentrations is more sensitive CO2 flux than the net annual change, which conflates two processes, source-emissions and sink-absorptions.

Last edited 1 month ago by Clyde Spencer
Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
October 25, 2021 11:08 pm

You might want to check the increase in SO2 versus CO2? La Palma has been smoking for over a month now. I wonder how the other volcanoes are doing.

bigoilbob
Reply to  Clyde Spencer
October 26, 2021 5:37 am

You should have quit at “measurable change”. ALL of these short term, first derivative values are TSTM. Fussing over pandemic departures is a waste of time. My concern is over the multi decadal, man made increases.

Ireneusz Palmowski
October 26, 2021 3:44 am

Within two days, cold air over the Rocky Mountains will reach as far as Texas.comment imagecomment image

Chuck no longer in Houston
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
October 28, 2021 10:47 am

It certainly did, Ireneusz. Exactly spot on.

Ireneusz Palmowski
October 26, 2021 12:18 pm

The animation below shows the rate at which the surface temperature of the Northeast Pacific is dropping as a result of the blocked circulation over the Bering Strait. comment image
Due to the increase in solar activity (in the solar southern hemisphere), a further decline in the Niño 3.4 index can be expected.comment image

eyesonu
October 27, 2021 6:43 am

The leading photo by Charles offers a nice view of the dynamics of the clouds. How much hiking does Charles do to get his awesome photos? Is someone standing in the shadow of the rocks with a blue garment or something draped over their left shoulder?

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