Tag Archives: Climate sensitivity

The Shindell climate sensitivity paper: another ‘GISS miss’

There was lots of breathless anticipation last week over the Drew Shindell paper on climate sensitivity, which was embargoed until 1800GMT on Sunday (see the embargoed PR from Nature here), but some people like Climate Nexus couldn’t help themselves and … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate sensitivity, NASA GISS | Tagged , , | 87 Comments

The Lewis and Crok exposition – Climate less sensitive to Carbon Dioxide than most models suggest

Full papers plus additional comments from co-author Nic Lewis follow. I have added some relevant diagrams and tables from the report, plus reproduced the foreword by Dr. Judith Curry as well as updated the summary Equilibrium Climate Response Graph originally … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 106 Comments

Chicken al la still not a king

The royal prince in waiting of Britain labels climate skeptics as “headless chickens”. From The Telegraph: Prince Charles has criticised climate change deniers, describing them as the “headless chicken brigade” during an awards ceremony recognising a leading young green entrepreneur. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity, Climate ugliness | Tagged , , | 317 Comments

CO2 and CERES

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the bureaucratic agency which appropriated the role of arbiter of things climatic, has advanced a theory for the lack of warming since the turn of the century, viz: The … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 199 Comments

Climate Craziness of the Week: only the ‘cooler’ models are wrong – the rest say 4ºC of warming by 2100

From the University of New South Wales and Dr. Steven Sherwood: “Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect,” said Sherwood. “But what we are finding … Continue reading

Posted in Climate Craziness of the Week, Climate sensitivity, clouds | Tagged , , , , , , | 168 Comments

The Fatal Lure of Assumed Linearity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [note new Update at the end, and new Figs. 4-6] In climate science, linearity is the order of the day. The global climate models are all based around the idea that in the long run, … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 111 Comments

Mechanical Models

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [NOTE the update at the end of the post.] I’ve continued my peregrinations following the spoor of the global climate model data cited in my last post. This was data from 19 global climate models. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , , | 90 Comments

A Sea Change for Climate Science?

By David Stockwell writing in Quadrant Online As CO2 climate models falter and even the IPCC backs off its estimates, it just may be that a radical shift in thinking is looming. Wouldn’t it be funny if it was the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 127 Comments

Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5

Guest Essay by Dr. Norman Page 1.The Demise of the IPCC and the CAGW Delusion. a) Overview. In the AR5 Summary for Policymakers the IPCC glossed over  the developing cooling trend in global temperatures and so lost the last vestige of … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , , , | 88 Comments

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach David Rose has posted this , from the unreleased IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): ‘ECS is likely in the range 1.5C to 4.5C… The lower limit of the assessed likely range is thus less than … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 317 Comments

BREAKING: IPCC AR5 report to dial back climate sensitivity

Update: the IPCC edifice is crumbling, see The state of climate science: ‘fluxed up’ See also Willis’ article One Step Forward, Two Steps Back, and Lomborg: climate models are running way too hot This post will be a sticky for awhile, new posts … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , | 230 Comments

Friday Funny – Katharine Hayhoe: only YOU can control the climate!

@bkparallax @IamDonCheadle the power to change climate lies in hands of every individual on the planet, not a single gov't–or technology!— Katharine Hayhoe (@KHayhoe) August 29, 2013 With the way Hayhoe described that, I couldn’t help think of, and embellish, … Continue reading

Posted in Humor, Satire | Tagged , , , , | 49 Comments

More low climate sensitivity

This paper A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series from Skeie et al is now in open peer review at Earth System Dynamics. They say an ECS of 1.84 … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 54 Comments

The IPCC has a real pack of trouble on its hands

By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is in the midst of finishing its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) on the topic. Based on a series of content leaks, it … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , | 125 Comments

Quote of the week – on the usefulness of climate models

From Dr. Judith Curry:

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 98 Comments

A low-sensitivity climate model that outperforms the Met Office’s HADGEM2

Climate sensitivity is IMHO, the most important unresolved issue in climate science. A number of recent papers, including the IPCC AR5 leak, plus the recent Economist leak of a later AR5 draft are pointing to lower climate sensitivities than what … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , | 29 Comments

Climate Sensitivity Deconstructed

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I haven’t commented much on my most recents posts, because of the usual reasons: a day job, and the unending lure of doing more research, my true passion. To be precise, recently I’ve been frying … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Modeling | Tagged , , | 291 Comments

Australian scientists take 6 degrees of global warming off the table, say it is closer to 2 degrees

From the University of Melbourne Scientists narrow global warming range Australian scientists have narrowed the predicted range of global warming through groundbreaking new research. Scientists from the University of Melbourne and Victoria University have generated what they say are more reliable projections … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 85 Comments

Updated climate sensitivity estimates using aerosol-adjusted forcings and various ocean heat uptake estimates

Guest essay by Nic Lewis The Otto et al. paper has received a great deal of attention in recent days. While the paper’s estimate of transient climate response was low, the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity figure was actually slightly higher than … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 113 Comments

Model Climate Sensitivity Calculated Directly From Model Results

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE: Steven Mosher pointed out that I have calculated the transient climate response (TCR) rather than the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). For the last half century, the ECS has been about 1.3 times the TCR … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 133 Comments

Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors

Yesterday, WUWT was honored to have a guest essay by co-author Nic Lewis on the new Otto et al paper that pegs Transient Climate Response (TCR) at 1.3°C along with Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity at 2.0°C. Lewis , who had previously published … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , | 44 Comments

New paper shows transient climate response less than 2°C

See also: Why the new Otto et al climate sensitivity paper is important – it’s a sea change for some IPCC authors New energy-budget-derived estimates of climate sensitivity and transient response in Nature Geoscience Guest post by Nic Lewis Readers … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , , , | 194 Comments

New paper from Otto et al and Nic lewis shows transient climate sensitivity less than 2C

UPDATE: this post has been superseded by the new guest essay from Nic Lewis which you can see here: New paper shows transient climate response less than 2°C

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged | 1 Comment

Claim: How the IPCC arrived at climate sensitivity of about 3 deg C instead of 1.2 deg C.

UPDATE from Girma: “My title should have been ‘How to arrive at IPCC’s climate sensitivity estimate’ instead of the original” Guest essay by Girma Orssengo, PhD 1) IPCC’s 0.2 deg C/decade warming rate gives a change in temperature of dT … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 172 Comments

The beginning of the end: warmists in retreat on sea level rise, climate sensitivity

The forecast: It seems there’s less chance of gloom and doom these days. For sea level rise, now a maximum of about two feet by 2100. As for climate sensitivity, now for the first time ever, we are seeing mentions … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, Sea level | Tagged , , , , , , | 88 Comments

A compilation of lower climate sensitivities, plus a new one

Still Another Low Climate Sensitivity Estimate Guest post By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger Global Science Report is a weekly feature from the Center for the Study of Science, where we highlight one or two important new … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 60 Comments

Some sense about sensitivity

Excerpts from The Register, coverage of the Nic Lewis paper. This graph below from Bishop Hill shows that it isn’t just one paper, but several now that show lower climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2. =============================================================== More and more … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 63 Comments

A Comparison Of The Earth’s Climate Sensitivity To Changes In The Nature Of The Initial Forcing

Guest post by Bob Irvine ABSTRACT The Earth’s feedback response to warming is independent of the nature of the forcing that caused that warming. The question I intend to examine is whether the nature of the forcing will have a … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , , | 114 Comments

How well did Hansen (1988) do?

Guest Post by Ira Glickstein. The graphic from RealClimate asks “How well did Hansen et al (1988) do?” They compare actual temperature measurements through 2012 (GISTEMP and HadCRUT4) with Hansen’s 1988 Scenarios “A”, “B”, and “C”. The answer (see my … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Forecasting, Modeling, NASA GISS | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 212 Comments

Emergent Climate Phenomena

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In a recent post, I described how the El Nino/La Nina alteration operates as a giant pump. Whenever the Pacific Ocean gets too warm across its surface, the Nino/Nina pump kicks in and removes the … Continue reading

Posted in Emergence | Tagged , , , , , , , | 151 Comments

The Revkin-Gavin debate on lower climate sensitivity

Lower climate sensitivity is getting some mainstream discussion. Last week at WUWT, we had this story: BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC which is now the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , , | 123 Comments

The yearly lukewarm report

UPDATE: Andrew Revkin has a similar story today, see below. Robert Bradley, who runs Master Resource, a blog about energy and climate, gave me unsolicited permission to reprint this article to increase its reach, and I’m happy to do so. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity | Tagged , , , | 36 Comments

Josh on lying for ‘the cause’

James Annan writes on his blog here: http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/a-sensitive-matter.html “Interestingly, one of them stated quite openly in a meeting I attended a few years ago that he deliberately lied in these sort of elicitation exercises (i.e. exaggerating the probability of high sensitivity) … Continue reading

Posted in Climate ugliness, IPCC | Tagged , , , | 41 Comments

Playing the global warming morality card in my local newspaper – a religious experience?

Even ad engines see the religious connection to global warming Lately there’s been an ongoing series of rants in my local newspaper, the Chico Enterprise Record, from global warming activists posing as moralists with holier-than-thou views about how noble their … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Climate ugliness, Letters To The Editor, Local_issues | Tagged , , , , , , , | 145 Comments

BREAKING: an encouraging admission of lower climate sensitivity by a ‘hockey team’ scientist, along with new problems for the IPCC

UPDATE: Annan now suggests the IPCC “is in a bit of a pickle”, see below. UPDATE2: Title has been changed to reflect Annan’s new essay, suggesting lying for political purposes inside the IPCC. Also added some updates about Aldrin et … Continue reading

Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak | Tagged , , , , , , | 452 Comments