Category Archives: IPCC

More reax to Lewis and Crok: What the IPCC Knew But Didn’t Tell Us

Climate Insensitivity: What the IPCC Knew But Didn’t Tell Us By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger In a remarkable example of scientific malfeasance, it has become apparent that the IPCC knew a lot more than it revealed … Continue reading

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Posted in Climate sensitivity, IPCC, Lewis and Crok | 117 Comments

The Lewis and Crok exposition – Climate less sensitive to Carbon Dioxide than most models suggest

Full papers plus additional comments from co-author Nic Lewis follow. I have added some relevant diagrams and tables from the report, plus reproduced the foreword by Dr. Judith Curry as well as updated the summary Equilibrium Climate Response Graph originally … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Climate sensitivity, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 106 Comments

The Overselling of Climate Modeling Predictability on Multi-Decadal time Scales in the 2013 IPCC WG1 Report – Annex 1 Is Not Scientifically Robust

Guest essay by Roger A. Pielke Sr. Introduction I have posted in the past how the development of multi-decadal regional climate projections (predictions) to give to policymakers and the impact communities is a huge waste of time and resources; e.g. … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | 106 Comments

NASA revises Earth’s Radiation Budget, diminishing some of Trenberth’s claims in the process

From the “settled science” department comes this new revision of Earth’s entire radiation budget. Many WUWT readers can recall seeing this radiation budget graphic from Kenneth Trenberth in 2009: Source: Trenberth et al. 2009 http://echorock.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Staff/Fasullo/my_pubs/Trenberth2009etalBAMS.pdf That figure in a slightly … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Climate News, Climate sensitivity, Earth, IPCC | 211 Comments

The IPCC discards its models

Who will believe the CMIP5 models, after the IPCC plenary had to discount their temperature projections? Guest essay by Barry Brill Table SPM.2 Projected change in global mean surface temperature (°C) for the mid- and late 21st century relative to … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | 84 Comments

Severe Limitations of IPCC Understanding And Explanation Of Monsoons As Mechanisms Of Massive Energy Transfer.

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball In order to make their hypothesis that human CO2 is causing global warming work, a small group at or associated with the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, monsoons, Weather | 64 Comments

IPCC silently slashes its global warming predictions in the AR5 final draft

Guest essay by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Unnoticed, the IPCC has slashed its global-warming predictions, implicitly rejecting the models on which it once so heavily and imprudently relied. In the second draft of the Fifth Assessment Report it had broadly … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , , , , , | 173 Comments

Many Climate Reconstructions Incorrectly Attributed to Temperature Change.

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) set climate research back thirty years, mostly by focusing world attention on CO2 and higher temperature. It was a classic misdirection that required planning. The IPCC was … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Paleoclimatology | Tagged , , , , , , , | 151 Comments

Oh say can you see modern sea level rise from a geological perspective?

Guest post by David Middleton Experts say the IPCC underestimated future sea level rise A new study surveys 90 sea level rise experts, who say sea level rise this century will exceed IPCC projections Wednesday 4 December 2013 John Abraham … Continue reading

Posted in Adjustments/Corrections, Al Gore, Alarmism, Antarctic, Arctic, Gravity, Greenland ice sheet, Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Paleoclimatology, Sea level | Tagged , , , , | 101 Comments

IPCC’s Report on Climate Change: Myths & Realities

A World Meteorological Organization insider’s view of the IPCC report. Guest essay by Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy Formerly Chief Technical Advisor – WMO/UN [A note to readers: English is not Dr. Reddy’s primary language. I have made some edits to … Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 51 Comments

WG1 co-chair Thomas Stocker abandons IPCC principles

Thomas Stocker, the co-chair of IPCC WG1, has been discussed previously on this blog. On 26th November he gave a talk at Imperial College on the messages from the AR5 WG1 report. The headline of the write-up is “Act now … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 36 Comments

From 90% to 95% confidence level: How IPCC claims can be at the same time consistent and absurd.

We have been expecting too much from the IPCC about its confidence level increase: the explanation may actually be simple… and surprising. Guest essay by Stephane Rogeau Image: From IPCC FAQs Many people are wondering what actually made the IPCC … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , , , , , | 95 Comments

Why and How the IPCC Demonized CO2 with Manufactured Information

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball Elaine Dewar spent several days with Maurice Strong at the UN and concluded in her book The Cloak of Green that, “Strong was using the U.N. as a platform to sell a global environment … Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, IPCC | Tagged , , , , , , , | 291 Comments

Who are the true denialists?

Guest essay by Professor Philip Lloyd People have the nasty habit of giving their opponents names.  Those who are convinced that humans are wrecking the world by burning fossil fuels call those who don’t believe them “denialists.” It implies that … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , | 92 Comments

Water Is Replacing Climate As The Next UN Environmental Resource Scare

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed and hence clamorous to be led to safety by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. – … Continue reading

Posted in hydroclimatology, IPCC, United Nations | Tagged , , , , | 154 Comments

An ‘Uh Oh’ moment in Nature – IPCC Climate panel is ripe for examination

It is fitting this is published near Halloween time in Nature, because the IPCC is full of scare stories. IPCC: Climate panel is ripe for examination Mike Hulme & Martin Mahony Nature 502, 624  (31 October 2013) doi:10.1038/502624c Published online  … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC | Tagged , | 70 Comments

Commonsense Climate Science and Forecasting after AR5

Guest Essay by Dr. Norman Page 1.The Demise of the IPCC and the CAGW Delusion. a) Overview. In the AR5 Summary for Policymakers the IPCC glossed over  the developing cooling trend in global temperatures and so lost the last vestige of … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , , , | 88 Comments

Radiative Forcing, Radiative Feedbacks and Radiative Imbalance – The 2013 WG1 IPCC Report Failed to Properly Report on this Issue

Guest essay by Roger A. Pielke Sr. Main Points 1. The difference in ocean heat content at two different time periods provides the global average radiative imbalance over that time [within the uncertainty of the ocean heat measurements] 2. This … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 151 Comments

Antarctic Sea Ice Didn’t Get The Memo That It Was Supposed To Melt

Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group By WUWT Regular Just The Facts Per the graph above, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent has remained above the 1981 – 2010 “normal” range for much of the last … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, measurement, Sea ice | Tagged , , , , , , | 162 Comments

FROM SCIENCE…TO ART…TO HYPOTHETICALS

The new RCPs are not projections, probabilities, prophecies or pathways – they might possibly be potentialities. Guest essay by Barry Brill The IPCC begins with science: “In sum, a strategy must recognise what is possible. In climate research and modelling, … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 54 Comments

There is only one published peer-reviewed paper that claims to provide scientific forecasts of long-range global mean temperatures

by Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon The human race has prospered by relying on forecasts that the seasons will follow their usual course, while knowing they will sometimes be better or worse. Are things different now? … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, IPCC | Tagged , , , | 118 Comments

Another Reason Why IPCC Predictions (Projections) Fail. AR5 Continues to Let The End Justify the Unscrupulous Means

Noble cause corruption in the process. Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball Someone said economists try to predict the tide by measuring one wave. The IPCC essentially try to predict (project) the global temperature by measuring one variable. The IPCC … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling, Noble Cause Corruption | Tagged , , , | 34 Comments

Will their Failure to Properly Simulate Multidecadal Variations In Surface Temperatures Be the Downfall of the IPCC?

OVERVIEW This post illustrates what many people envision after reading scientific papers about the predicted multidecadal persistence of the hiatus period—papers like Li et al. (2013) and Wyatt and Curry (2013). See my blog post Another Peer-Reviewed Paper Predicting the … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate FAIL, Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC | 139 Comments

Thom Hartmann’s ‘Last Hours’ video negated by IPCC AR5

From The End is Near department comes this video documentary from lefty talk radio guy Thom Hartmann that claims we are on the verge of a “mass extinction” due to climate change. Only one problem; the IPCC says “no” to … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Methane | Tagged , , , | 74 Comments

Tail wagging the dog – IPCC to rework AR5 to be ‘consistent with the SPM’

Dave Burton writes: Anthony, The IPCC replied promptly to my inquiry (below), and they surprised me, twice: 1. They say that the just released “final” draft of the AR5 WG1 Report isn’t really final after all, but the Summary for … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , , | 68 Comments

Climate change is dominated by the water cycle, not carbon dioxide

Guest essay by Steve Goreham Originally published in The Washington Times Climate scientists are obsessed with carbon dioxide. The newly released Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that “radiative forcing” from human-emitted CO2 is … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, Oceans, PDO | Tagged , , , , | 138 Comments

No Matter How the CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Models Are Presented They Still Look Bad

UPDATE: I’ve added a comment to the end of the post about the use of 1990 as the start year. # # # After an initial look at how the IPCC elected to show their model-data comparison of global surface … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Modeling | Tagged , , , , | 103 Comments

IPCC’s High-impact, low-probability risk media talking points

 ‘Abrupt Climate Change’ may turn out to be an IPCC own goal Guest essay by Barry Brill It’s one thing to terrify the populace with apocalyptic rhetoric and images of collapsing ice sheets or tsunamis. It’s quite another to gain … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , | 93 Comments

IPCC Climate: A Product of Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Built On Inadequate Data

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball “If you torture the data enough, nature will always confess” – Ronald Coase. Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable. – Anonymous. Climatology is the study of average weather over time or … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC | Tagged , , | 81 Comments

The IPCC flip flop on year 2100 temperature projections

Andrew Montford at Bishop Hill recently posted links to the AR5 second order draft materials and comments dated March 28th, 2013. With those available it allows us to begin constructing a timeline of how the finalized documents were hammered out. … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , | 53 Comments

To the IPCC: Forget about “30 years”

IPCC has never waited for 30-year trends, and they were right. Guest essay by Barry Brill Under pressure at a media conference following release of its Summary for Policymakers, AR5 WG1 Co-Chair Thomas Stocker is reported to have said that … Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , | 119 Comments

Sorry IPCC – How You Portrayed the Global Temperature Plateau is Comical at Best

NOTE: Please see the 2 updates at the end of the post. # # # The IPCC released their “approved” Summary for Policymakers for their 5th Assessment Report early this morning (eastern U.S. time), still in draft form. As far … Continue reading

Posted in Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | 53 Comments

IPCC on acid – if they are virtually certain about ocean acidification, why does X-prize offer a reward for designing a proper ocean pH meter?

The IPCC writes in the “leaked” SPM It is very likely that oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 results in acidification of the ocean. The pH 44 (see 7) of seawater has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak, IPCC AR5 Report, Ocean acidification, Oceans | Tagged , , , , , | 197 Comments

Access: The “leaked” IPCC AR5 draft Summary for Policymakers

For weeks, this document has been put in the hands of most every journalist that writes about climate issues, and many articles have been written about its contents. Given that much of the work done in it was publicly funded … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 leak, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , | 123 Comments

Real climate science the IPCC doesn’t want you to see

Guest essay by Paul Driessen Once again, it’s the NIPCC versus the IPCC – facts versus gloom-and-doom assertions. Earth’s average atmospheric temperatures haven’t increased in almost 17 years. It’s been eight years since a Category 3 hurricane hit the United … Continue reading

Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report | Tagged , , | 158 Comments