Our resident cartoonist, Josh, points out an article in the Sunday Times of London that is horrible in more ways than one. First, it’s yet another IPCC report, second, “it’s worse than we thought.”
Like all things horrible about climate, its behing a paywall. So there is a PDF at the end of this post.
Seems that not everyone in climate world thinks its horrible, excerpt”
Talks last night overran, with international officials
and scientists working to finalise the wording as they
went line by line through the 40-page report, which
will be presented to governments around the world.
Extracts from a draft version said it was too late to
reverse some of the effects. “Some options for climate
resilient development have already been forfeited due
to past societal choices,” it said, describing a “rapidly
closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and
sustainable future for all”.
Russia, Saudi Arabia and India repeatedly objected to
the negative tone of the report. “They are delaying
everything whenever they can,” a source close to the
discussions said. “Russia in particular is trying to
emphasise any benefit from global warming and trying
to remove mention of climate impacts caused by
human activities.”
Josh sums it up with a cartoon:
Read the whole article here.
We’ll have more on the IPCC report later. Like the work of Josh? Buy him a pint.
There is a market for disaster porn.
Imagine the loss to the print and broadcast media if they were suddenly deprived of giving their daily dose of climate alarmism to the anxious weather hypochondriacs.
Actually the chance of the globe going through a period of cold climate is coming and since there has to be headlines and pending disasters, ten years from now we might have swung to Advancing Ice Age headlines.. caused, of course, by CO2.
Hadn’t you heard? That’s already started. CO2 causes warming in the higher latitudes where it’s normally too cold to snow most of the time. Once they warm enough you get more snow and thus greater snow coverage for longer winters. Thus, the increasing reflectance and lower daytime temperatures for longer periods of time eventually reach a tipping point where you soon enter another ice age :<)
@Joe Crawford… We are in an ice age… we are just in a warm inter-glacial period.. Enjoy it while we can for at least the next 5000 years( give or take)
Good luck with the 5k years.
Everybody from gates through to Schmigt has plans to make radical ‘solutions’ real to mitigate the ‘warming’ and if you add that to the Grand Solar Minimum we are entering they may just trigger the next glacial period NOW!
Feedbacks can be caused by messing with attractors in a chaotic system.
Wish I could edit… 🙁Aha! I can! 😀Oh no I can’t – not once there’s a comment that I can’t delete. le sigh…
As said already, for the last couple of million years or so, we have been dipping in & out of regular Ice-Ages, lasting between 90,000 & 130,000 years, with the Inter-Glacials lasting between10,000 & 15,000 years. Current Holocene Inter-Glacial started around 12,000 years ago, suggesting that we don’t have that long to go, so the big question is, are there enough Sheep on the planet to produce enough wool for us all to keep warm??? 😉
The idea that feedback can be applied to the climate is a red herring that seems plausible to those that don’t understand the analysis, but in fact is the furthest thing from applicable. The reason is that the climate system fails to conform to the only 2 preconditions for applying feedback analysis. These are strict linearity between the input (w/m2) and the output (degrees) and the existence of an implicit source of Joules powering the gain.
They try to confuse you by ignorantly applying feedback analysis incrementally. Approximate linearity around the mean for a T^4 relationship is not even close to sufficient as nearly all non linear relationships are approximately linear at a single point.
Furthermore, the average forcing not accounted for by the incremental analysis can not be the power supply providing all the extra Joules of amplification as they are already completely consumed maintaining the average temperature which is also not accounted for by the incremental analysis.
Article on how to avoid cold spell at TCW Defending Freedom. Search for Cold Comfort.
JF
What goes around, comes around!!! So they have been saying, for eons probably!!!
Got a link?
(asking for a friend . . . )
The Guardian UK?
Lol.
Hey Janice — nice to see you here. 🙂
There will always be a certain number of people for whom negativity is their life.
Akin to the concept that the poor will always be with us.
It’s “worse than we thought” really means “give us more money!!”
I just love those “We’re all going to die” scienticky papers that always conclude with the words, “However, further study is required to be able to place a more accurate timeline for this predicted disaster!”. “give us more money!!” is always in the code somewhere!!!
I’d love to explain to climate alarmists how with so much money and so many people in their pockets that they lost … but they wouldn’t understand. They key is to use their own strength against them.
As the climate fails to cooperate with what the IPCC needs to justify its existence and agenda, the alarmist rhetoric has jumped the shark in a feeble attempt to compensate.
Chief Climate Clucker/Caterwauler Katherine Hayhoe dubbed the report as “Our Pants Are On Fire”. Yes, we know.
Seriously??
She used the second clause of
“Liar, liar, pants on fire” ?
Can’t make this stuff up.
******
Climate Clucker! 🙂
Lawyer, lawyer…
My bad, she actually named it the “Your House is On Fire” report. Details, details.
Why bother to try – we’re doomed – DOOMED!
Some of us like doom .. we thrive in it 🙂
I’m seasonal climate refugee, when London weather gets too dull I migrate south for a bit of warmth and sunshine.
Isn’t it all water south of London? 😀
No, there’s Gatwick.
Not to mention Timbuktu too.
See, if today’s barbarians (leftists) hadn’t eschewed the basic wisdoms offered by traditional judeo-christian religious teachings, they could abide this advice about Serenity –
“God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;
Courage to change the things I can;
And wisdom to know the difference.”
“ it was too late”
Then stop worrying and learn to enjoy life
Don’t tell them that there is only so many seats on the life boat and they accepted their fate.
I’m confused by the use of “recovery.” Up until now it was “mitigation” or in modern terms; “two weeks to slow the spread.” I saw the propaganda value to presume there is already “damage” at first. Then I saw the plan. All the “easy” stuff is no longer viable. Now we MUST take EXTREME measures to merely stay in place. Clever from an agitprop perspective but a massive fail in the face of data.
Sound rational, that UN squeaky wheels harping about dooms and disasters should be the first to return to a peasant lifestyle.
After that, NOAA and all of their alarmist brethren should be next to give up their CO₂ enriched lifestyles and CO₂ causing goods.
Dear Al Gore: I’m dating Tipper and your chance of Spousal Recovery has vanished…
Are you at the tipping point yet ?
Even if I was, I wouldn’t go the full 20%.
1.5 Deg C!!?? And that is meant to denote the end of the world?? Ten years (or so) ago, it was 2.0 Deg C but TPTB thought that would not be scary enough so arbitrarily changed it to 1.5 Deg.
You couldn’t make it up!! And who will determine that 1.5 has or has not been achieved? The IPCC lickspittles supporting their financiers in the UN. It’s all dirty politics.
They worked out 2 degree was difficult to fabricate so they had to lower the bar.
The big bright star in the midday sky says, as far as it is concerned, we are going back to where we were just over hundred years ago.
February sunspot number is about 5 points on the January’s count, whereby the start of SC25 is still closely tracking start of SC15.
Considering that the IPCC openly states that it doesn’t conduct any research itself, one would assume the peer reviewed and “grey” literature analysed by the IPCC would have been out there on full show for a reasonable period of time.
So why, suddenly, the cries of shock and horror?
Do climate scientists not read papers by other climate scientists?
Wouldn’t it become big news if a theme of doom and despair was plainly apparent throughout the literature?
It seems the IPCC is making heavy weather of it all.
The IPCC is bureaucrats – they don’t HAVE Science degrees and so can’t understand the papers. So they rely on their tame Funding Fudgers to tell them what it all means.
Those funding fudgers don’t actually Science themselves, they take OTHER people’s works and rewrite them into more alarming propaganda to extort money from the public purse or their preferred ‘conflict-of-interest’ group who makes money from the fake news alarms.
Not many Climate scientists have a science degree either.
Most of the modelers have degrees in Applied Mathematics. The few physicist among them seem to have abandoned everything they learned.
Well, what is a “climate science” degree? The climate is stupendously complicated at the level of first principles. One would have to be “a doctor of sciences” – a very rare achievement. i speak not of a doctor of science, but that which is awarded upon exceptional achievement. Bill Mollison, a former shark fisherman, achieved that distinction for establishing the whole permaculture movement, now a global phenomenon.
I have not seen anyone involved in climate modeling come close to deserving something like that.
Doctor of Science – Wikipedia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctor_of_Science
FYI a “Climate Science degree” is very rare as the field has only been recently added by some universities. Many universities still have it under a degree in Environmental Science.
The IPCC makes up the political summaries to fit their wealth redistribution plans, doesn’t matter what the scientific reports actually say. The political report could say that Greenland warming is unprecedented and accelerating, 10 meters of sea level rise immanent – actual science says it could take 700 years IF nothing changes.
I saw it mentioned at the BBC – maybe yesterday sometime.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-60525591
On the off-chance you were thinking of ‘ending it all‘ in the not too distant, just scanning through some of the comments there will make it sooner than later.
Those people really do need help – Prohibition and a Ketogenic Diet would be a good start.
Are there enough psychiatrists to treat all these victims of (self induced) climate anxiety?
Does anyone care?
People who have to wash bed sheets maybe?
Struggling with not being the top headline. How dare the newspapers report war ahead of climate change!
yeah john kerrys most miffed that the ukie debacle might take our minds off of the climate cons
Has anyone seen the scientific work done by IPCC or the scientific work used by the IPCC? I’m not convinced there is any. I’ve heard that work was done. I’ve heard people say that the IPCC conclusions don’t make sense, but where is their work?
The IPCC does not conduct its own research.
It would be found out if it did.
Did anyone notice that there was no mention of China as being a bad climate citizen ?. Only Russia, India and Saudi get called out.
Lot of EU electricity is generated by using Russian gas, but now when Russians are engendering Ukraine’s power generators, EU is urgently working on linking Ukraine’s grid into the EU’s. Would Putin now cut gas supply to the EU?
They paid there retainer this year.
Here is part of my recent Blog-post:
The Solar Activity – Global Cooling Trackers – Feb. 2022
Earth passed the peak of a natural Millennial temperature cycle in the first decade of the 21st century and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700.
This Blog-post forecasts short term future cooling to 2037and a general cooling until 2700 +/-. A Basic Science Summary and an Appendix on CO2 are included.. Forecasts will be updated here as appropriate. To review the detailed data and the references on which this cooling paradigm is based see the links below:
A : http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html Net Zero Threatens Sustainable development Goals. see References in parentheses ( )
B : http://www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12 The Impact of CO2,H2O and other Greenhouse Gases on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures
C : https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases.
The Solar Activity – Global Cooling Trackers – Feb.1 2022
1. Global Temperature.
A Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and Activity Peak was reached in 1991. Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans the correlative UAH 6.0 satellite Temperature Lower Troposphere anomaly was seen at 2003/12 (one Schwab cycle delay) and was + 0.26C.(34) The temperature anomaly at 2022/01 was +0.03 C (34).
There has now been no net global warming for the last 18 years.
2. Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
January 2022 finished as the sixteenth lowest extent in the satellite record.
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgoC2g9p2MpcOuf5ST1R81ZprSCh9JpkMAdy7HzIEEawjkTtty46KxP6p33gyr6AnFOZmvlOEyXQhw2S09WxLzDbp0E-CHQWV6-dDKsNgNYlYPN44RBxebcX9CudwfsYeLHfxI8ejVYwT2dBJmxEGcBJgQwldGPhrs8bOiuC5Q_eTJGBgyFmyCT8ySS_A=w377-h478
Figure 1.Arctic Sea Ice Extent
The four decadal average ice extent curves from 1979 – 2020 clearly reflect the late 20th century global warming temperature curves as modified by Major El Nino events. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
The lowest curve correlates well with the 2016 El Nino. See ( Fig.5) By end Jan 2022 ice extent was 14,326 million square kms. It has recovered close to the 2001 -2010 average .This curve shows the increase in sea ice on the temperature down slope past the peak of the natural Millennial temperature cycle in the first decade of the 21st century. The record minimum extent was 3,387square km in 2012 . This is one Hale cycle +/- delay following the solar activity peak in 1991.
3.Arctic Sea ice volume.
Average Arctic sea ice volume in January 2022 was 17,000 km3. This value is the 9th lowest on record for January, about 2,400 km^3 above the record set in 2017. see data at: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/#:~:text=Average%20Arctic%20sea%20ice%20volume,mean%20value%20for%201979%2D2021.
4.Sea Level
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjLbHpuCkPXDP8GRMU5n7uLTmSLOVxaR8TspmX2YnIRdI6rTOG5_IYc5a_O5I3vOrWF77WpT9ntpbmbxD3oU9WhRshkd6yUOamqq6ZK9AYDhUg0Li8zcwoPpCyvvJtmSy3xcdF5yHSafudJBpgCfvJQEz2vUhdB3UxlXKe3Oh52GXkUG2K6keKh5WmgsQ=w541-h276
Fig. 2 Sea Level https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/It can now be plausibly conjectured that a Millennial sea level peak will follow the Millennial solar activity peak at 1991/92 . This may occur at a delay if one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle i.e at 2021/22. Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (18).The rate of increase in sea level from 1990 – present was 3.4 millimeters/year. The net rate of increase from Sept 13th 2019 to Sept 25th 2021 in Figure 2 was 2mm/year. If sea level falls further by end 2022 the conjecture will be strengthened.
5. Solar Activity Driver and Near term Temperatures
Predicted solar activity and predicted correlative hadsst3gl temperatures to 2037 are shown in the Basic Science Summary Fig 6 below. . The had sst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05.
An indicator of temperatures for 5 – 6 months ahead is also provided by the SOI graph
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgAwpPhzbg85eEaslbEXe6iYwNB7Y3TxXd4x7PPRrSq2cVyMqvSDlNGLj7kxwDD91F9h5wijQsUXDcd0ol3EUD3ySwvPIPklfSdEy2qXCx_9SLA4dT-r7-Du6DDwFsQhs8LUnMTWPxDrQSwXAdqaLBjsMhgXOPWd5Io-Nkt5QOj5lqnpcMmqOY4NQSS7Q=w387-h271
Fig.3 30 Day moving SOISustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña (cooling) while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño.(warming) Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. Values at Feb.13 2022 indicates possible global cooling until June/July 2022. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=SOI
Basic Science Summary
The IPCC -UNFCCC “establishment” scientists deluded first themselves, then politicians, governments, the politically correct chattering classes and almost the entire UK and US media into believing that anthropogenic CO2 and not the natural Millennial solar activity cycle was the main climate driver. This led governments to introduce policies which have wasted trillions of dollars in an unnecessary and inherently futile attempt to control earth’s temperature by reducing CO2 emissions……..
See whole post at: https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
Redirect all IPCC and Paris Agreement funding to a Ukraine arms fund offering purchase credits for Ukraine to buy the arms they need from US and European companies.
Prof Ed’s stripes indicate that Alaska is warming most but the GISS long-term graph (raw) for Anchorage (1920 -2020) for instance shows a similar pattern to HadCRUT4 Arctic viz. the 1930s – 1940s were as warm as now, Tanana (1920 – 2020) Talkeetna (1920 – 2020) are similar.
As mentioned by co2isnotevil, the IPCC has jumped the shark – again. This time while standing on their head and holding on with one toe. The applause is starting to wane.
The question now is – what will they do next time?
Surely it’s becoming obvious to all but the most glued-on climate zombie that this is just another feeble attempt to justify their existence. Kind of like the UN taking another meaningless vote.
“the most glued-on climate zombie “
griff, Simon, Loydo (where did she go)? Must be pretty time-consuming stabilizing the climate.
If it’s worse than they thought – just think a bit more optimistically!
Come back when you know for sure (never).
IPCC must all get their long faces from John Kerry.
Can someone PLEASE go tell these fools the story of the boy who cried “Wolf!”
Poll after poll shows nobody except the congregation of the Church of AGW is listening nor do they want to actually spend ANY m,oney on the ‘wolf.’
If it’s worse than they thought, perhaps they should stop thinking?
Oh…
Wait…
NVM, as you were. 😀
“Extracts from a draft version said it was too late to reverse some of the effects.”
Nice, it’s often been said that New England winters used to be worse- and that’s true. But I don’t know anyone who wants to go back to such winters- though of course it’ll happen sooner or later as the weather here constantly changes. Yet, this winter so far is fairly “normal” if such an adjective could be used for the weather here. It’s suppossed to be 7 F tonight as we go into March 1. Yet, the media across the region still cries that we’re all gonna burn up real soon now. They’re about as insane as Putin. I have a Peterson Field Guide to wildflowers- with a note in it from March 8, 1973 which says it was 78 F that day and I saw several species of wildflowers that day. Right now I have a foot of snow in my yard and its going to be frigid all this coming week. I’m really beginning to hate the climatistas as much as Ukrainians are hating Russians. And one of the main solutions for the climatistas to “save the planet” is end all tree cutting- after all, they already own wood homes with wood furniture and tons of paper products. The next generation can live in straw huts and sit on rocks. Of course that doesn’t include the next generation of the very rich elites from Harvard and Yale.
“international officials and scientists working to finalise the wording as they went line by line” unmentioned, green NGO activists.
Also unmentioned, line by line = phrasing adjusted to political consensus.
Also unmentioned, the AR is ex post facto changed to agree with the politicized SPM.
The only solution is to pull the money. Defund the UN.
When I was a kid, some cars had the bumper sticker, “US out of the UN. UN out of the US.” I didn’t understand it then. I understand it in spades today and fully agree.
Perhaps. But the source doesn’t make them wrong.
How can things possibly get any worse than predicted for 50 years now?
We are obviously frying and we are obviously drowning. We are obviously poverty stricken and we are obviously starving.
The poles have obviously melted and the deserts are growing.
It’s so bad that humanity is distracted by a war in Ukraine that is more important the the most important thing to humanity.
John Kerry was obviously right, think of climate change instead of war.
Obviously a war in Ukraine is obviously more important to humanity than the obviously destructive effects of covid.
Obviously covid doesn’t affect soldiers huddled together in barracks, or tanks, or foxholes, vaccinated or otherwise. At least, obviously, in Russia, and Ukraine. Although, obviously, every Russian soldier is vaccinated with a vaccine that actually works.
In which case, couldn’t a collective Russian sneeze have the same effect as boots on the ground?
Am I skeptical of everything?
Let me put it this way. As an agnostic (and therefore a religious coward) I now have considerably more faith in the existence of god than I do of the commandments he expected us all to live by.
As for climate change, I figure the dizzy old git dropped the ball when he realised atmo CO2 was going to fall to 180ppm during the last ice age and invented mankind to reverse the trend by discovering fire.
Some believe God is intervening in our lives in a mysterious way. Were I to fully believe in him I would accept my 1970’s Geography teachers definition of God:
“He dropped us onto a planet he relinquished control over and is waiting to see what will happen”.
In which case, God is a scientist. Well, one Christian ideology of God at least.
Trust is something earned. The past computer Climate Models have all been wrong. Why trust the present ones?
The past PR Hollywood Models have also been wrong. “2012”, “The Day After Tomorrow”, etc. Why let them form your opinion of CAGW … er … Man caused “Climate Change”?
PS In regards to “The Day After Tomorrow”, some might say “tomorrow never comes”. EXACTLY!
Times science editor Ben Spencer’s education (from LinkedIn):
University of Oxford BA (Hons), Modern History 2003 – 2006
The University of Sheffield Masters, Journalism 2008 – 2009
Hills Road Sixth Form College 2000 – 2002
Comberton Village College 1995 – 2000
Guaranteed able to critically appraise and accurately present scientific claims.
Typical of so many of today’s “scientists”.
Although I had no intention of becoming a scientist, I ended up with a B.S. in Physics, graduating in the top quarter of my class overall and competing with a high percentage of engineering students. I started studying this “Global Warming” business back in 2006, quickly realized what a bunch of fear-mongering garbage it was, and further learning hasn’t changed my opinion one little bit. Further study told me we are heading for the next big ice age, and our only option is to adapt.
A Ph.D. phsycist of my acquaintance has derived a more complete model of orbital mechanics and predicts the Holocene/glacial transition in about 500 years.
Utterly agree with your garbage diagnosis.
When did the UN become “official”? They can’t even condemn Russia for invading sovereign nations.
Since everything the UN says about climate is “worse than we thought”, all that proves is they were incapable of doing any serious thinking or analysis.
I defy anyone to maintain that they can feel the difference of 1 deg C in 100 years, most of which happens at night in the winter.
The UN is like the drunk in the corner at the pub, full of advice and wisdom but a bit short on cash (can you buy me a beer son).
When the sun comes up in the morning and blasts it’s rays into my kitchen, it’s not unusual for my ace thermometer to register an increase of one degree per half-hour. I haven’t died yet. At least I don’t think so.