Category Archives: AMO

And this excuse makes 30. Dueling press releases on ‘the pause’, blaming Pacific Trade Winds on ‘Atlantic warming’

Previously, we had 29 excuses for “the pause” now we have 30. When a paper is published by multiple authors, the universities of those authors often produce separate press releases to highlight the paper. Today, two separate press releases about … Continue reading

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Posted in AMO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Sea Surface Temperature | 101 Comments

New paper: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate

Just two explanatory variables (GHG and AMO) still account for 93% of the temperature variance. Dr. Leif Svalgaard sends word of this article in Geophysical Research letters by Petr Chylek, James D. Klett, Glen Lesins, Manvendra K. Dubey and Nicolas … Continue reading

Posted in AMO | 54 Comments

AMO, NAO, and Correlation

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new paper over at IOP called “Forcing of the wintertime atmospheric circulation by the multidecadal fluctuations of the North Atlantic ocean”, by Y Peings and G Magnusdottir, hereinafter Peings2014. I was particularly interested in … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Bad science | Tagged , , , , | 63 Comments

Maybe the IPCC’s Modelers Should Try to Simulate Earth’s Oceans

UPDATE (April 6, 2014): I’ve added a link to a follow-up post about the cause of the observed C-shaped warming pattern in the Pacific. # # # The climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive are supposed to be simulations … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate FAIL, ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 36 Comments

On Chylek et al (2014) – The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a Dominant Factor of Oceanic Influence on Climate

I was advised of a recent paper that studies the impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on global surface temperatures since 1900. (Thanks, Anthony.) The paper is Chylek et al. (2014) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate News, ENSO | 58 Comments

It Isn’t How Climate Scientists Communicated their Message; It’s the Message

Over the past few months, there have been a number of articles about how the climate science community could have presented their message differently, or responded differently, so that they could have avoided the problem they’re now facing with the … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate Communications, Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC, Modeling | 142 Comments

Claim: Analysis indicates that North and tropical Atlantic warming affects Antarctic climate

It seems the ocean cycles get a bigger role than GHG’s in this study. Plus Antarctic models are still FUBAR: The gradual warming of the North and tropical Atlantic Ocean is contributing to climate change in Antarctica, a team of … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Antarctic, Oceans | 50 Comments

Cause of ‘the pause’ in global warming

Guest essay by Don J. Easterbrook, Dept of Geology, Western Washington University The absence of global warming for the past 17 years has been well documented. It has become known as “the pause.” and has been characterized as the “biggest … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO | 213 Comments

Author of its Own Demise – musings on the AMO

Guest essay by Caleb Shaw I once had a very good science teacher who I fear I made wild, not so much by causing small explosions in the back of his classroom, (which I think he secretly approved of,) as … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Oceans | Tagged | 107 Comments

Will their Failure to Properly Simulate Multidecadal Variations In Surface Temperatures Be the Downfall of the IPCC?

OVERVIEW This post illustrates what many people envision after reading scientific papers about the predicted multidecadal persistence of the hiatus period—papers like Li et al. (2013) and Wyatt and Curry (2013). See my blog post Another Peer-Reviewed Paper Predicting the … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate FAIL, Hiatus in Global Warming, IPCC | 139 Comments

Chylek et al 2013 shows a linkage between US Southwest climate and AMO/PDO cycles

This paper suggests that the CMIP5 models’ (which IPCC relies upon) predicted US SW temperature sensitivity to the GHG has been significantly overestimated by about a factor of two. Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate sensitivity, PDO | Tagged , , | 28 Comments

Another Peer-Reviewed Paper Predicting the Cessation of Global Warming Will Last At Least Another Decade

A few days ago, the Georgia Tech press release for Wyatt and Curry (2013) included a quote from Marcia Wyatt, who said the stoppage in global warming “could extend into the 2030s”. (See the WattsUpWithThat post here and Judith Curry’s … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Hiatus in Global Warming | 127 Comments

Models Fail: Land versus Sea Surface Warming Rates

In Climate Models Fail, using a number of different datasets, I illustrated how the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report could not simulate climate variables such as surface temperatures (land surface air, sea surface and … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, Modeling | 69 Comments

On Muller et al (2013) “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”

I received an email yesterday morning advising me that Muller et al (2013) had been published. (Thanks, Marc.) The title of the paper is “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”. The abstract is here and a preprint version … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, ENSO, PDO | 85 Comments

How Long Will the Naturally Caused Drought Persist in the U.S.?

AND DOES THE UPCOMING NCADAC REPORT ADDRESS THE AMO’S INFLUENCE ON THE DROUGHT? Anthony Watts recently published a post about the current drought in the U.S. titled To NCDC: We Haven’t Seen an El Nino since 2009/10, What Do You … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Drought, NCADAC | 28 Comments

The AMO, Codfish, Seals and Fishermen

Only remotely related to climate change, but perhaps related to politics polluting universities, this essay floats ideas concerning our nations fisheries, and fishes for feedback from WUWT readers. Guest essay by Caleb Shaw When I was just a small child … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Oceans | Tagged | 186 Comments

Multidecadal Variations and Sea Surface Temperature Reconstructions

UPDATE: I’ve added a link at the end of the post for those interested in a copy of it in .pdf format. ########### OVERVIEW This is a somewhat lengthy blog post. There’s lots of information for newcomers, and there are … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, PDO, Sea Surface Temperature | 29 Comments

Trend To Colder Winters Continues in UK

Guest post by Paul Homewood Figures released by the  Met Office show the UK mean temperature for the 2012/13 winter finishing at 3.31C. This is below the long term 1981-2010 average of 3.83C.

Posted in AMO | Tagged , , | 206 Comments

Why El Niño and not the AMO?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach On another thread, a poster got me thinking about the common practice of using the El Nino 3.4 Index to remove some of the variability from the historical global average surface temperature record. The theory, … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 154 Comments

Tisdale: How Much of an Impact Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Have on Arctic Sea Ice Extent?

Last week I asked Bob Tisdale to take a hard look at potential correlations between the AMO and Arctic sea ice extent, and he rose to the challenge – Anthony Guest post by Bob Tisdale This post presents reference graphs … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Arctic, Sea ice | Tagged , , , , | 79 Comments

Pat Michaels – on the death of credibility in the journal Nature

Atmospheric Aerosols and the Death of Nature Guest post by Dr. Patrick Michaels Big news last week was that new findings published in Nature magazine showed that human emissions of aerosols (primarily from fossil fuel use) have been largely responsible … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, AMO, Peer review | Tagged , , , , , , , | 171 Comments

Mann and coining the AMO and claims of credit writes: Did Michael Mann falsely claim to coin a famous climate term actually coined by someone else? In Mann’s new book “The Hockey Stick and Climate Wars”, Mann writes: The multidecadal oscillation I’d helped discover would nonethless become a … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Michael E. Mann | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 64 Comments

Crowdsourced Climate Complexity – Compiling the WUWT Potential Climatic Variables Reference Page

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments, which began on this thread on January, 15th 2011, and grew on January 22nd, 2011, February 10th, 2011, February 28th, 2011, June 30th, 2011 … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Announcements, Antarctic, Arctic, Carbon dioxide, Carbon sequestration, Citizen science, Climate data, clouds, Cosmic rays, dust storms, Earth, Education, Energy, ENSO, Environment, feedbacks, flooding, Forecasting, geothermal energy, Global warming, hurricanes, Land use land cover change, lightning, measurement, Methane, Modeling, Oceans, PDO, Science, Sea ice, snowfall, Temperature, tornadoes, UHI, Weather | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 132 Comments

The Ridiculousness Continues – Climate Complexity Compiled

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” With the help of an array of WUWT reader comments on this thread and several others documented within, I’ve been compiling a summary of all potential climatic variables in order to build a conceptual … Continue reading

Posted in Aerosols, AMO, Antarctic, Arctic, Climate data, clouds, Cosmic rays, dust storms, Earth, Earthquakes, Energy, ENSO, feedbacks, geothermal energy, Gravity, hurricanes, Methane, Oceans, PDO, petroleum, Science, Sea ice, Snow, Solar, solar power, thorium power, tornadoes, wind power | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 266 Comments

The November AMO index goes negative, first time since 1996

Joe D’Aleo reports via email that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index has gone negative for this past month, see the graph below: Source: This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears … Continue reading

Posted in AMO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 157 Comments

Hurricanes and Global Warming – Opinion by Chris Landsea

While I was looking into Chris Landsea’s recent activities, I came across a new essay that is a pleasant change of pace from the Climategate Emails. While it is definitely an opinion piece, and a wonderful example of how to … Continue reading

Posted in Al Gore, AMO, Carbon dioxide, hurricanes, Methane, Michael E. Mann, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , | 65 Comments

Earth’s Climate System Is Ridiculously Complex – With Draft Link Tutorial

By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” I am often amused by claims that we understand Earth’s climate system, are able to accurately measure its behavior, eliminate all potential variables except CO2 as the primary driver of Earth’s temperature and make … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Antarctic, Arctic, Cosmic rays, Earth, Education, ENSO, Modeling, Oceans, Radiation, Rainfall, Sea ice | Tagged , , , , | 332 Comments

New WUWT Oceanic Oscillation Page – With Link Tutorial

Introducing WUWT’s newest addition, the Oceanic Oscillation Page, which includes graphs and graphics,on Oceanic Oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño/La Niña and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO). It was a struggle to find content for this page, … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Climate data, ENSO, measurement, Oceans, PDO, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 17 Comments

Arctic Cycles – AMO+PDO corresponds to Arctic station group

The following figure shows the AMO+PDO (black line above changed to red below) superimposed on the Arctic average annual temperature shown at the beginning of this document.

Posted in AMO, Arctic, PDO | Tagged | 68 Comments

Tisdale tasks Tamino

Comments On Tamino’s AMO Post by Bob Tisdale Tamino’s AMO post is a response to my post Removing The Effects of Natural Variables – Multiple Linear Regression-Based or “Eyeballed” Scaling Factors (hereinafter referred to as the “Removing” post). Tamino took … Continue reading

Posted in AMO | Tagged , , , | 73 Comments

Atlantic reversal

From Eurekalert: Earth’s climate change 20,000 years ago reversed the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean Global warming today could have similar effects on ocean currents and could accelerate climate change The Atlantic Ocean circulation (termed meridional overturning circulation, MOC) is … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Oceans, Paleoclimatology | 80 Comments

The Atlantic Ocean via the AMO drives the apparent “Global Warming”

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM The North Atlantic undergoes a multidecadal oscillation appropriately called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO. It is officially the mean sea surface temperature anomaly from the equator to 70 degrees North. It went above the longer … Continue reading

Posted in AMO | 121 Comments

Arctic Temperatures and Ice – Why it is Natural Variability

By Joe D’Aleo, CCM On October 21st the Associated Press hit the wires with a story entitled ”Sea Ice Melting as Arctic Temperatures Rise.” The temperatures in the arctic have indeed risen in recent years and ice has declined, bottoming … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Arctic, PDO | 66 Comments

Update And Changes To NODC Ocean Heat Content Data

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale, As noted in the post October 2010 Update to NODC Ocean Heat Content Data, the National Oceanographic Data Center has updated itsOCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) data. This is the dataset based on the Levitus et al (2009) … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, Oceans, PDO | 105 Comments

AMO+PDO= temperature variation – one graph says it all

Joe D’Aleo and Don Easterbrook have produced a new paper for SPPI. This graph of US Mean temperature versus the AMO and PDO ocean cycles is prominently featured: I particularly liked the regression forecast fit:

Posted in AMO, Climate data, Oceans, PDO | 143 Comments