I get this daily newsletter from a paid political pot stirrer called “Climate Nexus”, which is actually a Madison Avenue PR firm. They write today of a new paper, Rutterford et al.:
From Fish and Chips to Just Chips: Some of the most traditional and cherished staples of the English diet may become scarce as a result of climate change, a new study finds. As North Sea waters continue to warm, haddock, the eponymous fish in “fish and chips,” is expected to decline, as well as plaice and lemon sole. Already, the North Sea has warmed four times faster than the global average over the past 40 years.
They claim (using a modeled fish abundance of course) that Atlantic Cod and other species will be significantly affected by “warming seas”.
The laughable thing about this study is that they don’t seem to be aware of real-world variables, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and its effects on fish stocks, either anecdotally from the fishermen, or from the recent peer reviewed literature, “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates dynamics of small pelagic fishes and ecosystem regime shifts in the eastern North and Central Atlantic”, Alheit et al. where it is stated:
- Abundance fluctuations of fish populations correspond to alternating AMO phases.
- Regime shifts in eastern North Atlantic ecosystems are associated with AMO dynamics.
- AMO affects Mediterranean fish populations.
- European clupeoid populations exhibit synchronous multi-decadal changes in abundance.
- Contraction of sub-polar gyre assumed to trigger synchronicity in fish populations.
And the correlation from that paper:
They make no mention of the real-world effect of AMO at all in the paper that I can find. It’s models all the way down:
At least there’s a small caveat that won’t make into any alarming news story:This narrow focus on models over reality might be due to the fact that the lead author, Louise A. Rutterford, is a biologist, and I don’t think the word ‘meteorology’ is in her vocabulary.