Oh noes! Fishy modeling study says 'Fish and Chips' to disappear in the UK

Galleon_Fish_and_Chip_shop,_Conwy._-_geograph.org.uk_-_962443[1]
The Galleon Fish and Chips Shop in Conwy, UK – soon to be doomed by climate change. Source: Wikimedia
I get this daily newsletter from a paid political pot stirrer called “Climate Nexus”, which is actually a Madison Avenue PR firm. They write today of a new paper, Rutterford et al.:

fishy-studyThe punch line from Climate NEXUS:

From Fish and Chips to Just Chips: Some of the most traditional and cherished staples of the English diet may become scarce as a result of climate change, a new study finds. As North Sea waters continue to warm, haddock, the eponymous fish in “fish and chips,” is expected to decline, as well as plaice and lemon sole. Already, the North Sea has warmed four times faster than the global average over the past 40 years.

They claim (using a modeled fish abundance of course) that Atlantic Cod and other species will be significantly affected by “warming seas”.

fishy-study-fig2cThe laughable thing about this study is that they don’t seem to be aware of real-world variables, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and its effects on fish stocks, either anecdotally from the fishermen, or from the recent peer reviewed literature, “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) modulates dynamics of small pelagic fishes and ecosystem regime shifts in the eastern North and Central Atlantic”, Alheit et al. where it is stated:

  • Abundance fluctuations of fish populations correspond to alternating AMO phases.
  • Regime shifts in eastern North Atlantic ecosystems are associated with AMO dynamics.
  • AMO affects Mediterranean fish populations.
  • European clupeoid populations exhibit synchronous multi-decadal changes in abundance.
  • Contraction of sub-polar gyre assumed to trigger synchronicity in fish populations.

And the correlation from that paper:

Fig. 7.  First principal component (PC1) based on the main long-term data sets of small pelagics available in the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean between 1945 and 2010. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is superimposed.
Fig. 7. First principal component (PC1) based on the main long-term data sets of small pelagics available in the Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean between 1945 and 2010. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is superimposed.

They make no mention of the real-world effect of AMO at all in the paper that I can find. It’s models all the way down:

fishy-study-conclusions

At least there’s a small caveat that won’t make into any alarming news story:fishy-study-conclusions2This narrow focus on models over reality might be due to the fact that the lead author, Louise A. Rutterford, is a biologist, and I don’t think the word ‘meteorology’ is in her vocabulary.

Fish and chips are far more likely to disappear due to the actions of nanny-state food police like Bloomberg who think none of us should be allowed to eat fried foods, than to disappear because of human-caused climate change.

0 0 vote
Article Rating
147 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Joe Chang
April 14, 2015 8:30 am

On a business trip to London 15+ years ago, at dinner, all the English people ordered Indian, steak or something. When I ordered fish & chips, they all laughed at me. I gathered that they fish and chips so frequently in their schools years that they were never going to eat it again.
In any case, Atlantic cod on our side was severely depleted years ago, and has not recovered since.

Reply to  Joe Chang
April 14, 2015 8:39 am

Cod are a primary food source for those cute, fuzzy, furry, seals. The ones that 30-40yrs ago were quite a rarity, worthy of an hour drive to the islands on the coast of Maine to see the seals. Now?…they’re everywhere.
Might that have had an impact on cod?, as has been covered here on WUWT before?
Also, there are (at least WERE in the 90s) more than a few boats in the Portsmouth/Kittery area of the NH/Maine coast that were commercially fishing for dogfish (sand sharks to the rest of us) which were then processed and shipped over to our friends in the U.K. to be used for…..wait for it…
Fish and Chips 🙂
I’ve had it…and it’s pretty good 😉

Bubba Cow
Reply to  jimmaine
April 14, 2015 9:59 am

perhaps they can ship the sand sharks in with the wood pellets . . .

Charlie
Reply to  jimmaine
April 14, 2015 10:04 am

Dogfish and brown shark. That is correct. The seals are everywhere. The are even by the Verrazano bridge most of the year now

Peter Charles
Reply to  jimmaine
April 14, 2015 10:56 am

Indeed I remember it well. It used to be called rock salmon and was always my choice from the fish and chip shop when I was a kid in the 50s and 60s. It was particularly delicately flavoured, at least compared to Cod. You did not have to worry about bones either.

David Chappell
Reply to  jimmaine
April 14, 2015 4:08 pm

Having dissected lots of dogfish preserved in formalin in my school and college years, I have difficulty in persuading my lips to get around them as food.

Reply to  jimmaine
April 14, 2015 8:39 pm

I doubt it tastes much like Cod though.

artwest
Reply to  Joe Chang
April 14, 2015 10:29 am

It gets harder to find a traditional fish and chip shop by the year whereas 40 years ago virtually every tiny village or high street would have more than one. They were the ubiquitous fast food outlet but now it’s mostly fried chicken, burgers, sandwiches, and food from assorted corners of the world.
Fish and chips still taste best on a trip to the seaside though.

meltemian
Reply to  artwest
April 14, 2015 1:53 pm

Particularly with mushy peas.

Reply to  artwest
April 14, 2015 5:10 pm

There is, or was recently, a very good fish and chip shop in Catterick Village, near Richmond in Yorkshire. They had the best chips, properly cooked in dripping!
The other really good fish and chips we ever had we ate on the sea front at Oban in Scotland.
Down Under, in Melbourne, we’ve had great fish and chips from somewhere in Huntingdale Road. I love ‘Flake’….that’s shark, and delicious, otherwise known as ‘Swimmers’ Revenge’!

Reply to  Joe Chang
April 14, 2015 4:35 pm

Joe- My husband is British, when on trips to the visit the family- theyall think it’s funny I enjoy Fish & Chips- it’s regarded as the “fast” food over there- the “cheaper” food to eat.. So basically you went out for a nice meal, and insisted on ordering the equivalent of a MacDonald’s burger. Probably why everyone laughed! Fish & Chips here is too expensive for fast food 🙂

Alan the Brit
April 14, 2015 8:31 am

We’re British by jingo, & we’re not going to let Global Warming, Global Warmists, nor Johnny Foreigner, take our fish & chips away (still thee number one take away food in the UK btw)!!!! Oh & have you colonial chaps & chappesses set a timetable for when we can have our colonies back? 😉
I wonder how they can seriously justify the squillions of taxpayers’ dosh they get given on a plate, at times?

H.R.
Reply to  Alan the Brit
April 14, 2015 8:50 am

Alan the Brit,
“[…] Oh & have you colonial chaps & chappesses set a timetable for when we can have our colonies back? […]”
With the US being 18+ trillion dollars in debt, are you sure ya’ll really want the colonies back?

Alan Robertson
Reply to  H.R.
April 14, 2015 3:55 pm

Currently $18.187+Trillions. But we an just print more.

ferdberple
Reply to  H.R.
April 15, 2015 6:20 am

we an just print more
==============
sort of. what you print you must first borrow from the Federal Reserve. A privately held bank that most Americans believe (wrongly) is a government institution.

TonyL
Reply to  Alan the Brit
April 14, 2015 8:59 am

Oh & have you colonial chaps & chappesses set a timetable for when we can have our colonies back?
During the war of 1812, you people burnt Washington DC down to the ground. Consider all is forgiven, over a misunderstanding. Would you come over and do it again, please?

D.J. Hawkins
Reply to  TonyL
April 14, 2015 9:49 am

Oh yes, double-plus good!!

Don K
Reply to  TonyL
April 14, 2015 12:57 pm

Actually they just burnt couple of government buildings. And the were responding in kind the the burning a year previous of the parliament buildings in York (Toronto) by American troops. (I know, I know, MY history books in school neglected to mention that minor detail as well).

Jon Lonergan
Reply to  TonyL
April 14, 2015 3:20 pm

Maybe you should wait till Congress is in session in Washington DC and burn it down again.

johnmarshall
Reply to  TonyL
April 15, 2015 3:33 am

We have an SAS team ready and willing.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Alan the Brit
April 14, 2015 9:43 am

“Oh & have you colonial chaps & chappesses set a timetable for when we can have our colonies back? 😉 ”
How about a trade? We will give you New York and New Jersey, we’ll even throw in Detroit, for 4 season tickets to Man U in 2016.
[Heck, the Brit’s already conquered all of those cities. Twice. .mod]

Bubba Cow
Reply to  Tom in Florida
April 14, 2015 10:01 am

add a dozen passes to the Paris festival, please

Non Nomen
Reply to  Alan the Brit
April 14, 2015 11:20 am

If you really want things to stay that way then get out of the so called EU asap. These unelected bureaucrats are excellent in ruining the british fishing industry. Give UKIP a chance.

auto
Reply to  Non Nomen
April 14, 2015 2:20 pm

Hmmm.
CAGW is Political – the watermelons want power and (our) money.
UK = –
Vote UKIP – get Millipede [and his Scottish puppet-mistress].
Vote Tory and, mostly, get folk who are pro-wealth-creation; some may be too in love with complex taxation memes [cf. Brown, Gordon] – and certainly a few (‘Tories’ !!!?) struggle to understand wealth creation . . . .
Vote Labour (& Millipede) – get a massive vendetta on people doing even moderately well; their incomes, pensions, savings, and houses will be taxed to fund – well, a bit unclear, but certainly more bureaucracy.
Vote Green – and stump up – some tax rates up by a third. “We do SO know m u c h better than you how to spend your hard-earned money” . . . .
PS We have an Election coming . . . .
Auto

Janice the Elder
Reply to  Alan the Brit
April 15, 2015 6:20 pm

Alan, perhaps we could interest you in New York, and then throw in California? Moonbeam Brown would fit in with some of your elite politicians.

Toby Nixon
April 14, 2015 8:32 am

Fish and chips are far more likely to disappear due to the actions of nanny-state food police like Bloomberg who think none of us should be allowed to eat fried foods, than to disappear because of human-caused climate change.

Matt
April 14, 2015 8:42 am

Ah . More girlie science.

Dudley Horscroft
April 14, 2015 8:46 am

Cod is rather rare ouwing to the depletion of the Grand Banks fisheries, and herring have been virtually fished out. The fish they don’t mention is the ‘Shark’ also known s the
•Flake
•Huss
•Dogfish
•Catfish
•Grayfish
•Steakfish
•Whitefish
•Lemon Fish
•Moki
•Cape Steak
•Rock Salmon
•Smoked Rock Salmon
•Smoked Dogfish
•Rigg
•Gummy
•Sea Ham
•Sokomoro
•Tofu Shark
•Ocean Fillet
IIRC Flake and Rock Salmon used to be the preferred alias for shark, and probably 50% of the fish in fish and chips was shark. Not catfish nor dogfish – sounded too much like eating your pets!

george e. smith
Reply to  Dudley Horscroft
April 14, 2015 12:32 pm

Well there are some F&C places around silicon valley that claim to actually have Atlantic cod for their F, and idahopotatoes for their C aka french fries.
But more often than not, we get Alaskan hake in our F&C, and to me that is virtually as good as Atlantic cod.
The Russian fishing boats, in US waters seem to catch a lot of pink hake, that goes by the colloqial names of silver, and chinook salmon in local markets. Hard to tell the difference and often these days, the pink is red dye #2 or some facsimile. Dunno why you would dye perfectly good fish red.
Not a salmon fan but I do like the regular white hake from Alaska, and also the polock.
Fish swim up and down and round and around and they go where the water is where they can find food, that hasn’t been turned into omega 3 oils for yuppies.
So nyet on fish disappearing for a while; they have no idea the oceans are warming, and couldn’t or could care less about it.

Paul Westhaver
April 14, 2015 8:47 am

I don’t accept the assertion that the seas are warming nor do I accept that warming seas would impact cod population. Why? Because of Michael Mann the liar. He lied so by extension these guys are also lying.

Paul Westhaver
Reply to  Anthony Watts
April 14, 2015 9:28 am

I don’t accept the assertion that the seas are warming nor do I accept that warming seas would impact cod population. Why? Because of Michael Mann is stupid. He is stupid so by extension these guys are also stupid. 🙂

Walt D.
Reply to  Anthony Watts
April 14, 2015 9:37 am

Anthony – I think we have gone past the point where simply stupidity is sufficient to explain what is going on. “Follow the money” are “the purpose of power is power” may be closer to the point.

Just an engineer
Reply to  Anthony Watts
April 15, 2015 1:15 pm

Serial Stupidity?

Ben of Houston
April 14, 2015 8:58 am

Well, it might, but not due to global warming. Overfishing is a major environmental issue that has not been reliably addressed. It’s frustrating how many real environmental problems are getting left in the dust in subservience to CO2.

JimS
April 14, 2015 9:00 am

Curry replaced fish & chips as the national dish of the UK a long time ago. How about an climate alarmist article on the demise of curry due to climate change. Those alarmists should keep up with the times, you know.

urederra
Reply to  JimS
April 14, 2015 9:25 am

Curry is a spice (or a blend of spices), not a food. Do you mean chicken curry, rice curry or something like that?

JimS
Reply to  urederra
April 14, 2015 9:39 am

Curried anything is the national dish of the UK. Curry is a powder made from a variety of spices. And my reply was made in pure jest. Why would anyone what to go nit-picky on it?

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Reply to  urederra
April 14, 2015 11:34 am

urederra, you’re evidently not British! ‘Having a curry’ is eating a curried meal: http://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/british/curry
If one is to be a grammer nazi, then one should at least get it right.

ralfellis
Reply to  JimS
April 14, 2015 9:40 am

Not any more – have you seen the state of their kitchens and the imported slave-labour workers who sleep in the kitchens? You will not catch me in those places again….

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Reply to  ralfellis
April 14, 2015 11:31 am

You are spot on. In my job, I sometimes have to work in curry house kitchens, and now I would NEVER have a ‘curry’ from a restaurant. Do your own at home!

knr
April 14, 2015 9:00 am

Makes you wonder how these fish managed to evolve at all given there have been much bigger temperature changes in the past , I wonder could it be they ‘SWAM’ to where conditions where better for them ?
Meanwhile model BS all the way through and of course the authors can look forward to further grants having show their ‘faith in the cause’ and never mind reality . CAGW has been a real kick in the groin for the future science and sadly those doing the kicking are often scientists like these authors who do know better but do not given a dam.

M Courtney
April 14, 2015 9:00 am

If a hill warms the wildlife may need to move further up until it reaches it’s optimum climate niche again.
I recognise the theory that hills have tops and so the niche may disappear.
If the sea warms the wildlife may need to move further polewards until it reaches it’s optimum climate niche again.
I do not recognise the theory that the poles will get warmer than the mid-Atlantic is now.
Come on, this is just a bit silly, isn’t it?

April 14, 2015 9:07 am

There are far more curry restaurants now than chippies in the whole of the UK.
If there is a shortage of fish it is almost certainly a result of over fishing, not some silly, nebulous claim of climate change.
I do love a good grease soaked paper full of deep fried cod and some chips sprinkled with malt vinegar, but only once a month or so. The grease is just so over the top, even when the fish is correctly fried in really hot oil.

RCS
April 14, 2015 9:09 am

The decline in British fish stocks is due to the EU “Common Fisheries Policy”, which is widely held to be an ecological and economic disaster.

LarryFine
April 14, 2015 9:13 am

They predicted the end of chocolate and coffee and now fish & chips shops. What’s next? Beer?

Tim
Reply to  LarryFine
April 15, 2015 1:00 am

Next may well be Soylent Green.

Just an engineer
Reply to  Tim
April 15, 2015 1:18 pm

Soylent Greenies? Polar bear treats?

Rick K
April 14, 2015 9:15 am

So… fish, like snow… will be a thing of the past.
Global warming does it all… Embarassingly pathetic.

Charlie
April 14, 2015 9:18 am

I used to fish commercially. It’s amazing what I hear from the know it alls on pelagic fish stocks. Most of these people couldn’t spend more than a few hours out at rough seas without having some sort of emotional break down or puking their brains out. Fish migrations and behavior rely on a few things that nothing to do with this issue even if the oceans warm a micro bit locally. Sun angle for one plays more of a role for some species that the majority of recreational anglers to this day believe move solely on water temps.

Kurt in Switzerland
Reply to  Charlie
April 14, 2015 9:23 am

Wasn’t it a British Columbia fisheries scientist who “discovered” the PDO?

Charlie
Reply to  Charlie
April 14, 2015 9:53 am

I wasn’t referring to the British there. I was referring to the know it all amateur environmentalists. You know, the ones who have a hard time catching fish when they are practically jumping into their Boston whalers

Steve from Rockwood
April 14, 2015 9:29 am

What can you expect from a country that serves its national dish rolled up in a newspaper?

Reply to  Steve from Rockwood
April 14, 2015 9:39 am

But aren’t newspapers disappearing, too?

TomL
Reply to  Steve from Rockwood
April 14, 2015 9:51 am

As a colonist I wish they were still served that way. I had my introduction to real British fish and chips served tike that on the docks in Singapore some mumble mumble years ago and fell in love with them. On a much more recent trip to England I was always told that was now banned by law – no more rolled up newspaper allowed.
Personally I wish we could serve them that way here so the N.Y. Slime wouldn’t be a total waste of trees.

Charlie
Reply to  TomL
April 14, 2015 9:57 am

A Salt and Battery in Brooklyn serves it that way right in the New York Slimes no less. You can ask for the Science section special.

artwest
Reply to  Steve from Rockwood
April 14, 2015 10:35 am

Fish and chips haven’t been routinely served in a rolled up newspaper since about the 1960s.

taxed
Reply to  artwest
April 14, 2015 11:36 am

lt did manage to last a bit longer then that. As a child a remember them still been wrapped up in newspaper into the 70’s. lt seemed to go out of use during the 80’s.

Steve from Rockwood
Reply to  artwest
April 14, 2015 11:44 am

I had some on my first trip to the old country in the late 1980s. In the town of Wigan. Washed it down with some Newcastle Brown. Perfect combo for a cold and wet English winter night. No doubt it’s been replaced by chicken masala and washed down with a warm glass of lassi.

Charlie
Reply to  artwest
April 14, 2015 11:51 am

if anything else this article is making me very hungry

AlexB
Reply to  artwest
April 14, 2015 4:31 pm

Was still happening in the 90s in places.

SandyInLimousin
Reply to  Steve from Rockwood
April 14, 2015 12:03 pm

Now banned due to carcinogenic printers ink.
But typical British adaptive engineering mentality, re-use newspaper for another purpose long before greens thought of re-cycling. In the days of open fires newspapers were used for fire-lighting purposes.
Newspaper and vinegar also used for cleaning windows.
http://www.goodhousekeeping.com/home/a12515/cleaning-windows-with-vinegar/

John MR
Reply to  SandyInLimousin
April 14, 2015 12:41 pm

In the U.S., I’ve been using newspaper and paper grocery bags to drain fried food since the ’70s. They work great for absorbing and holding the oil.
Though with the newspaper, we used to worry about the ink getting on the food. We eventually assumed the beer we drank with our fish would probably hurt us more than the ink, and stopped worrying.

Reply to  Steve from Rockwood
April 15, 2015 2:42 am

Steve, the great Health & Safety movement have banned that pleasure that a few people loved. If I wanted to eat fish & chips from my Daily Telegraph, I would have to eat them off my iPad, which would destroy both my appetite and iPad!

Kurt in Switzerland
April 14, 2015 9:32 am

Maybe with all the Ocean Acidification by then, the pH of the fish will be so high we can all cut back on the malt vinegar with our battered plaice.

Dudley Horscroft
Reply to  Kurt in Switzerland
April 15, 2015 8:54 pm

Kurt, if the pH goes high, you will need MORE vinegar to compensate. Acid is when the pH is below 7.0. If the pH goes higher it gets more and more alkaline, so you need the vinegar.

ralfellis
April 14, 2015 9:36 am

Hmm… Except that the UK Seafish and the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) has just been announced that cod stocks have bounced back, and we may be able to fish them again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3031725/Soon-ll-able-eat-guilt-free-cod-North-Sea-stocks-bounce-sustainable-five-years.html
Ah, well, the models always trump real data. I mean, what sort of idiot would trust real people counting real fish, rather than guestimated computer calculations…… /sarc
Ralph

SandyInLimousin
Reply to  ralfellis
April 14, 2015 11:51 am

The models are wrong, at least for the North Sea, are wrong. It is a fact The Guardian says so
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/08/north-sea-cod-stocks-bounce-back-analysis-shows
The fish, once one of the most disastrous examples of overfishing, is now closer to being certified as being sustainable as gurnard, a species which consumers have previously been encouraged to eat instead of cod.

John MR
Reply to  ralfellis
April 14, 2015 12:18 pm

The thing is, we can now grow tilapia by the billions around the subtropical and tropical world if we really need or want to. Easy as pie to grow.
Not my favorite fish, but not bad for fish and chips

george e. smith
Reply to  John MR
April 14, 2015 12:42 pm

Thank you but Tilapia is not a fish; at least it doesn’t taste like a fish, and it certainly doesn’t taste like chicken either so it is generally not considered a food where I live.
Catfish, on the other hand is quite a tasty delicacy, so if you want to farm raise something try catfish.
If they can do it in Texas, they can do it anywhere.

John MR
Reply to  John MR
April 14, 2015 1:04 pm

George, we have and do raise catfish. And I agree on taste.
But I was only speaking relative to growing ease and worldwide protein needs. It’s a ridiculously prolific fish, grows like a weed, and doesn’t need much care, or even quality water.
Very frustrating to me that enviros act as if we’re act peak food capacity. We aren’t even close to it especially considering all the new tech being developed.

Hot under the collar
April 14, 2015 9:41 am

Instead of ‘Friday Funny’ I think this story should be categorised ‘Tuesday Fishy’.
I hope the researchers have declared their ‘Big Cod’ funding?
Global warming is one thing but you Yanks have gone too far now with your ‘Fish n Chip’ Denial. : (

April 14, 2015 9:41 am

From the BBC report on it:
“The flat fish are really in trouble,” Dr Simpson, a researcher on the study, told BBC News.
“Unless they can change their habitat and diet in the next 20 or 30 years, or adapt to 2 degrees more warming – which is a big ask – then they will decline.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32286800

mikewaite
Reply to  philincalifornia
April 14, 2015 11:41 am

Where does the 2C in 20 or 30 years come from? Is this the latest model from IPCC ?
WUWT, my source on all things climatic, has not prepared me for the possibility of 6-10C per century.
I cannot find it in the textbooks.

Reply to  mikewaite
April 15, 2015 9:36 pm

… and that’s the sea, not the atmosphere over it.
It’s according to an unpublished model provided by J Tinker. There are too many potential puns in there for me to handle, although it is peer-reviewed, so it must be true.

Gary
April 14, 2015 9:50 am

What about bangers and mash, bubble and squeak, and toad-in-the-hole? Will Climate Change eliminate them too?

Reply to  Gary
April 15, 2015 9:40 pm

Climate Change regulations surely will – way too much methane generation, particularly with bubble and squeak, and you’ll probably get jail time for mushy peas in the future.

urederra
April 14, 2015 9:55 am

There was an old castillian (inland Spain) saying that used to say that “Shrimps do not grow among the stubble” a common landscape in the spanish mesa. It was used to explain the high prices that kind of food used to have in the old days. It turns out that now they do. A branch of a U.S. company called Natural Shrimp opened a little fish farm in the middle of the castillian mesa where they produce 50 tons of shrimps per year.
The headquarters are in San Antonio, inland Texas, where they also produce fish farm grown shrimps, something that the members of the Club of Rome had never expected.
http://naturalshrimp.com/our-story/

DirkH
Reply to  urederra
April 14, 2015 11:15 am

Club Of ROme knew very well that their Limits To Growth model was nothing but agitprop. It was a means to an end, as declaring humanity itself as the enemy and creating the enviro movement was the basis for the new strategy of the UN to become a world power by global regulation.
The previous strategy, amassing all nuclear arsenals in the hands of the UN, perished when the UN killed 100,000 people in Katanga in 1961, and the appalled European nations withdrew their support. JFK was still advertising that strategy in a speech ca. 1961.

Bubba Cow
April 14, 2015 9:56 am

don’t read this unless you need a headache (or then the cure) –
from the fine print just above Anthony’s yellow highlight

Capacity to tolerate warming will thus depend on scope for thermal acclimation and adaptation with the degree of connectivity between thermally adapted sub-populations across the geographic range of species influencing the rate of adaptation to future warming.

tortured AI English – I’ve had similar computer generated suspicions for other ramblings – have to do something with the supercomputer modeling downtime so why couldn’t it plug itself?

DirkH
Reply to  Bubba Cow
April 14, 2015 11:18 am

Might be an over-reviewed and over-edited sentence, after each reviewer said, THIS is still missing. I produce similar drivel when reviewers go on my nerves. It’s fun.

Reply to  Bubba Cow
April 14, 2015 11:23 am

I wonder if the peer reviewers could explain what that single sentence means?

Reply to  Bubba Cow
April 14, 2015 5:36 pm

I assumed it was the sort of gobbledygook you get from poorly educated people trying to sound clever.

Resourceguy
April 14, 2015 10:31 am

Take Charles and keep the fish.

April 14, 2015 10:37 am

Forget about your fish & chips, get out your solar eclipse glasses. There are some large sunspots that will be visible by using protective glasses with ‘naked’ eye during next few days.
DO NOT LOOK DIRECTLY!! Not even with the darkest of sunglasses!!
http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_1024_HMIIC.jpg

DirkH
Reply to  vukcevic
April 14, 2015 11:19 am

I looked at it and it’s a normal yellowish JPG. What’s the problem?

Reply to  DirkH
April 14, 2015 11:51 am

Not sure if that is a joke, I am talking about real sun, not JPG images. If sun indeed turns down its activity as predicted by most of the solar professionals, next week or so may be one of the rare occasions in the next 15 or more years, to see sunspots by naked eye.

DirkH
Reply to  DirkH
April 14, 2015 1:48 pm

Just kidding, vuk.

Bruce Cobb
April 14, 2015 10:40 am

Is there any food (or drink) on the planet that people like that isn’t “threatened” by “global warming”? It’s just one more way the climate tricksters use people’s emotions to get them to believe their lies.

Dudley Horscroft
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
April 15, 2015 9:01 pm

Coffee, tea, perhaps, but if the global warming exterminates the bushes, then there is always hot water. Don’t think global warming will affect that.

David, UK
April 14, 2015 10:41 am

Good job I can no longer eat such greasy food (the old stomach won’t tolerate it) or else I would be writing an angry letter to my local MP demanding that immediate action is taken. But as things are I couldn’t give a flying fish.

Reply to  David, UK
April 14, 2015 11:25 am

Had some in Barbados…deep fried flying fish is pretty good.

joelobryan
April 14, 2015 10:42 am

Method summary: They tuned their GAM model for a 10 year window 2000-2009, then used a GCM output of sea temperatures (Hadley Centre QUMP_ens_00 model output) from 2050 -2059 to simulate what and how fish population parameters would change.
http://i58.tinypic.com/33k9clw.png
In other words, they simply fed a failed Climate model garbage output as the input into their fish model (GAM), which of course just produces more non-sense garbage.
At that point, I stopped trying to understand what they found out about their results and conclusions on fish population distribution and size changes.
Models-all-the-way-down pseudoscience.

Alba
April 14, 2015 10:43 am

I have it on reliable authority that climate change is affecting the breeding habits of haggis and that they will soon be extinct.

Rhee
Reply to  Alba
April 14, 2015 10:52 am

@Alba, would that be a bad thing?

Mac the Knife
Reply to  Rhee
April 14, 2015 11:20 am

Rhee,
Don’t have the stomach for it, eh?

Alan Robertson
Reply to  Rhee
April 14, 2015 4:02 pm

Oh, Mac…

michael hart
April 14, 2015 10:49 am

Several years ago the national dish was declared by an MP to now be curry, not fish n chips.
I have not heard the change attributed to global warming yet, but it is only a matter of time.

richard
April 14, 2015 10:51 am

north sea has warmed, spare a thought for Spitzbergen in the 1950s
“In Spitzbergen, one of the places where accurate records have been kept, the local temperature average has risen 18 degrees Fahrenheit since 1910 and the port is now open 200 days a year — nearly 50 days longer than it was back in the early 1900’s”
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/161614751?searchTerm=iceland%20getting%20warmer&searchLimits=

April 14, 2015 11:08 am

Nice reply but I’m not sure I’d put much stock in this research.
Maybe we need to invest in models.
They seem to make many people lots of money.

climatereason
Editor
Reply to  mikerestin
April 14, 2015 11:59 am

Just got back home after having had some Fish and Chips (well my wife did, I am a vegetarian)
Cod is the most popular fish and pretty plentiful at the moment. The real problem in all this are the EU fishing rules which makes Fishermen dump ‘non quota’ fish caught accidentally, back into the sea, dead.
Our local port has records of fish types going back 300 years. Nearby Plymouth has records going back nearly a thousand years. Fish come and go. Sometimes they have to be fished all the way in Iceland and at other times the waters are cold and they can be found nearer home. The waxing and waning of fish types over the centuries is well documented.
tonyb

Goldrider
Reply to  mikerestin
April 14, 2015 2:57 pm

Sounds like rising bilge-water to me.

urederra
April 14, 2015 11:12 am

You guys should read the book entitled “Useless arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists can’t Predict the Future” by Orrin H. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis.
It this book, the authors tell the story of the deplection of the North Atlantic cod on the Grand Banks of Canada. They put the blame on the government planners in the Canadian Deparment of Fisheries. They used a flawed computer model to calculate a “sustainable” fishing rate. They commited two mistakes (as far as I can recall from reading the book some years ago) First mistake was an underestimation on the amount of fish the fishermen were able to capture. They went out and captured some fish themselves, good for them, they actually started with empirical data, but then they though fishermen were going to have the same results as they did. It turned out that fishermen were better at fishing. Who would have thought.
Second mistake was that they used the wrong growth equation in their computer model. They thought that by capturing more adult cod, it would be more room for young cod to grow, It turned out that the density of adult cod in the banks has to be over certain a threshold in order for the eggs laid by female cods to be fertilized. Too diluted and the eggs won’t be fertilized.
The portuguese and galician fishermen had been fishing on the Grand Banks for centuries, then a computer model projects a sustainable fishing rate and the banks were depleted in a few years. If only we had learnt something.

JCR
Reply to  urederra
April 15, 2015 8:39 pm

Another good book is Dan Gardner’s “Future Babble”. It’s a lay explanation of Phillip Tetlock’s work or expert predictions. A good economist can tell you about what’s going on in the economy NOW. A good political scientist can tell you a lot about politics NOW. A good ecologist can tell you a lot about what’s happening in the environment NOW. But once they start making predictions about the future (Paul Erlich, James Hansen, Tim Flannery etc), you’d do better with a dart throwing chimp. Unfortunately, there aren’t that many good climate scientists. They don’t seem to be able to draw the connection between the models and the assumptions they programmed into them.

Walt D.
April 14, 2015 11:13 am

The Global Warming Elite are not going to care, as long as they have their lobster and prawns and someone else is paying for it.

Kasuha
April 14, 2015 11:13 am

I think the real caveat is in “if populations fail to adapt”.
Because it so much looks like everybody forgot evolution exists and among others all of our domesticated animals are result of it, many of them changing right before our eyes.

Peta in Cumbria
April 14, 2015 11:22 am

Please tell me I’m not completely nuts here.
My wonderation is why these people and everyone here (so far) are attributing human like characteristics to fish?
Especially that for some reason everyone thinks that some species of fish just happen to like swimming around in frozen cold water and cannot exist in warmer water.
Surely, the fish go and thrive where the food is and any and all of the food items further down the chain ultimately rely on the fertility of the water.
Cold water, having been trudging along the bottom of the ocean (at what? 4 or 5 deg C) for centuries, picks up a load of all the important trace elements and vital nutrients that make food grow. When it arrives at the surface and some sunlight is available, the ‘ocean blooms’ and a load of critters, fish included move in to harvest it – long before it has had much chance to warm up (hence=cold)
The fish are responding to the food supply, they don’t give a toss how cold it is – a lot like us humans, we live in the cold and nasty north because that is where the only decent fertile soil is left on this planet and hence we can grow sufficient food.

Mac the Knife
April 14, 2015 11:24 am

Big Ben will disappear from Westminster Palace before ‘global warming’ will eliminate fish ‘n chips in Great Britain!

DirkH
April 14, 2015 11:27 am

“I get this daily newsletter from a paid political pot stirrer called “Climate Nexus”, which is actually a Madison Avenue PR firm.”
…and PR was the term Eddie Bernays invented for his craft after the previous term he used, Propaganda, fell in disfavour…

Tom J
April 14, 2015 11:27 am

Aren’t they building a whole bunch of windmills in the seas off the coast of England? I suspect the fish are being electrocuted by the submerged power lines from these wind generators. I also suspect that the flying fish (which provide needed air cover and air superiority for the cods, and haddocks, and whatnots) are being sliced and diced to smithereens by the blades of those windmills. Furthermore, I suspect the windmills are blowing the fish and the fish fleets off course, but of course, on different courses that are off course, of course.

Charlie
Reply to  Tom J
April 14, 2015 11:40 am

The wind farms act like a massive reef and attract all sort of sea life from barnacles to tuna. Then come all the gannets, sea gulls, pelicans and every other sea bird you could imagine. they then get mowed down by the thousands.

Bubba Cow
Reply to  Charlie
April 14, 2015 12:08 pm

Least they could have done was to go solar.
Then the baked birds (rather than bird bits) could be collected by out of work fishers,
simmered in curry and served with chips.
That’s environmental and entrepreneurial adaptation.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Charlie
April 14, 2015 12:27 pm

Charlie

The wind farms act like a massive reef and attract all sort of sea life from barnacles to tuna. Then come all the gannets, sea gulls, pelicans and every other sea bird you could imagine. they then get mowed down by the thousands.

Do not the thousands of freshly chopped birds fall into the sea to feed the newly hatches fishes waiting voraciously below the windmills?

Tom J
Reply to  Charlie
April 14, 2015 4:23 pm

Bubba Cow
With solar we could set up fish & chip operations out in the ocean and then claim it was locally grown. Getting customers to paddle out to the eateries might be a bit tough.

April 14, 2015 11:50 am

Interestingly, prior to the starvation brought on by the Little Ice Age in Europe, potatoes were considered food below even the lowly station of the lowest peasant. Royalty and leaders had to BEG people to eat potatoes, because they were hardy and easy to grow, unlike wheat. Especially in France. Where people apparently preferred to starve to death rather than be caught eating a potato.

george e. smith
April 14, 2015 12:13 pm

Well fish and chips were destined to become a thing of the past, once the NONEWS on dead tree industry died out.
You’ve got to have paper with ink on it to wrap fish and chips in, so once the nonews is all digital, there will be nothing to wrap fish and chips in.

PiperPaul
Reply to  george e. smith
April 14, 2015 12:30 pm

Couldn’t we print out IPCC climate model results and use that?

auto
Reply to  george e. smith
April 14, 2015 1:57 pm

+ Several.
Auto

Chip Javert
Reply to  george e. smith
April 14, 2015 4:02 pm

We could wrap them in IP packets.
I’m cruising to England in 10 days; sure hope the have some (fish & chips) left.

george e. smith
Reply to  george e. smith
April 15, 2015 12:12 pm

Don’t think so PP. It’s got to be news on there and the output from climate models isn’t either new or news.
Your product is perhaps better suited for lining the bird cage; it already has S*** on it.
G

April 14, 2015 12:22 pm

The decline in fish and chip shops in England is mainly due to pub chains – notably Wetherspoon’s – taking away their custom. If you can be served – and drink beer or wine, too – for a similar price, why go to the fish and chippy?
Wetherspoon’s already claim to be “the biggest fish and chip shop in the nation” every Friday night. And they don’t seem to have any shortage of cod.
Where’s the beef?

DataTurk
April 14, 2015 12:30 pm

I think the writer means “anonymous”, rather than “eponymous”, in the original piece. Nobody mangles English like the English.

Reply to  DataTurk
April 14, 2015 5:43 pm

Oh, they do! Just come to Australia!

Bob Mount
April 14, 2015 12:47 pm

I have just enjoyed a supper of the great English delicacy, “Fish and Chips”, so feel well placed to comment. Firstly, the eponymous fish in “fish and chips” is not haddock, but cod, although both are usually on offer. Tonight I had haddock. Secondly, and most importantly, North Sea fish stocks have been depleted because of:
1. over-fishing by Continental European fishing fleets, especially from Spain, since the UK signed a EU convention that opened all of the North Sea to all EU fishing fleets about 30 years ago. Until then, the UK had managed the fish stocks successfully; and:
2. EU rules about fish types and sizes that may be brought ashore, introduced in the 90’s to help fish stocks recover, exacerbated the problem! Fishermen have no option but to throw much of their catches back into the sea, not only wasting a valuable food resource, but also polluting the sea bed.
As a consequence of our EU membership, our once mighty fishing fleets have all but disappeared.

John MR
Reply to  Bob Mount
April 14, 2015 1:27 pm

It certainly won’t pollute the sea bed, as the wasted fish and bycatch will provide sustenance for all sorts of sea creatures and birds.
But the rest of your points are taken.

April 14, 2015 1:12 pm

They (as supporter of the political agenda) don’t care about the truth or informing of the complete story/science. It is about the media influencing the weak-minded. Whomever gets the lie out first, wins.

Gunga Din
April 14, 2015 2:28 pm

Here in the US, we lost “Arther Treacher’s Fish & Chips” years ago. Economic pressures were the cause.
Now, in the future, the UK is going to loose all the rest of the “Fish & Chips” places because the Wizards of COZ’s models have decreed it so.
(Hope all you Brits like Big Macs! 😎

Alx
April 14, 2015 3:29 pm

I imagine this paper was also impeccably peer reviewed. Perhaps by a council made up of Gypsy fortune tellers and tabloid psychics. I have no idea how science branched from predicting rain a few days out into predicting how much fish you get with your chips in London by the year 2070.
Maybe it’s the computers. Computer entertainment is an opiate for the masses and computer models an opiate for scientists. Opiates dull your mind and make it difficult to make progress in any field, but they sure make you feel good about it.
Which calls for another entry into the list of psychiatric disorders: Obsessed-Model-Deluisionism.

lee
Reply to  Peter
April 14, 2015 9:24 pm

There are no Grants in others’ research.

April 14, 2015 5:33 pm

Fish and Chips will disappear the same year that Hell freezes over.

April 14, 2015 6:15 pm

Like whatever causes a problem studied by climatologists MUST, to get funding, be caused by climatology, anything that causes fish to die/disappear MUST be caused by the specialty of whoever is studying the fish problem…fisheries, biology, etc….to get funding, the most important thing any of them do. So, the crap coming out of the end of these nuclear power plant pipes, each element near the most toxic on Earth, couldn’t POSSIBLY be the problem killing the seafood in the Pacific or the Channel, right?
http://enenews.com/tv-plutonium-being-pumped-ocean-miles-underwater-pipes-nuclear-waste-left-lying-beach-kids-playing-sand-machines-scoop-plutonium-day-video-photos

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Larry Butler
April 14, 2015 7:21 pm

No.

April 14, 2015 9:13 pm

If you folks want to see some real control freakery, come here where the Columbia River meets the Pacific Ocean.
The control freaks here fantasize that they manage the various salmon populations, and wield ever-more arbitrary power as they micro-manage fishing, from commercial to recreation, at such excruciatingly absurd levels that your jaw would drop to the ground if you could get your mind around the mindlessness.
The control freaks also pretend to manage the California sea lion population, whose numbers have exploded here.
See: Boom times on the Columbia for California sea lions
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/boom-times-on-the-columbia-for-california-sea-lions/
But now the vast army of sea lions is devouring all of the precious salmon, so the control freaks are “forced” to “euthanize” (read: murder) sea lions.
Now, sea lions are protected marine mammals, so if you or I so much as get too close to one, we get fined and/or go to prison. But it’s okay for the Chosenites to decide who lives and who dies (when they are not busy torturing the poor creatures by trapping and branding them).
I adore sea lions. They are such an integral part of my surfing experience, as I usually surf completely alone, and have these 500 to 1000 lb creatures hanging out with me, sometimes little more than an arm’s length away. They are absolutely magnificent beings.
I wonder how the control freaks would like it if I put together a posse using other peoples’ money to round them up, trap them, brand them, glue radio transponders to their heads, clip their ears, pull some teeth, and perhaps ‘euthanize’ a few, depending on how I felt about, say, the color blue that day?

tty
Reply to  Max Photon
April 15, 2015 12:19 am

You are lucky to have California Sea Lions to surf with. For some reason they (and the closely related Galapagos sea lions) are much nicer and friendlier than other fur seals, that can be downright dangerous to deal with.

Reply to  Max Photon
April 15, 2015 2:54 am

Max, we were in California last year and spent a few days in San Francisco, saw loads of sea lions on Pier 39. They are, as you say magnificent creatures, but you could smell and hear them before you saw them, Loved Death Valley too, the most quiet place I have ever visited.

george e. smith
Reply to  Max Photon
April 15, 2015 1:45 pm

Well I can see you haven’t been fishing out in The Monterey Bay waters. There we have loads of those charming fur bags that you like to surf with. Yes they are a protected nuisance, and you may not even defend yourself from them.
Whadya mean ‘protect’ pardner ?
Well gone are the days when a sea lion would just wait for you to hook a salmon behind your boat, and then it would simply take it off your line, and maybe some gear with it.
No more; they simply watch you bring the fish in to your boat, and then they jump in the boat with you and take your fish. And you can’t even use your mandatory oar or paddle to protect yourself or your catch. In many cases, you will be more concerned that the extra 500 pounds you just took on board doesn’t capsize and sink your boat.
When the local SF Bay and environs salmon sport fishing fleet, set out to the waters outside the Gate, towards the Farralones, the fur bags simply follow the boats out right from the docks to the fishing grounds, and whether it is salmon or striped bass or even rockfish, they will take your catch.
Albacore and tuna fishermen are not forgotten either. The salmon thieves are just as likely to take your albacore from you as well.
When you artificially interfere with the natural order of things, then you end up with mayhem.
Sea lion fur bags used to give humans a wide berth, or they often risked getting shot. Well at least a whack on the nose with a paddle or oar, if they got near a boat.
Now you are not even aloud to swear at them, or even yell at them.
But today’s salmon fishermen are all friends of the man in the gray suit. They love it out at the Farralones, when the man gets himself or herself a nice sea lion snack. Same goes for the Orcas.
Nowadays we could really do with a few Megaladons around to clean up the neighborhood.

Just an engineer
Reply to  Max Photon
April 15, 2015 2:44 pm

Max, could I interest you in a Chosenite Club?

April 14, 2015 11:24 pm

Did Climate NEXUS pull their promo story? I couldn’t find it when I searched.

tty
April 15, 2015 12:11 am

The lack of historical awareness in the clim-sci establishment never ceases to amaze me. Fish distribution has always shifted, often abruptly, due to oceangraphic changes.
In Scandinavian history “Herring Periods” when the herring suddenly became abundant in coastal waters, causing general prosperity, have been a well-known phenomenon since the Middle Ages. They are well documented since the 16th Century:
1556-1589
1660-1680
1747-1809
1877-1906

AB
April 15, 2015 1:13 am

Tropical fish & chips. There, problem solved. 🐠🐠&🍟

flea
April 15, 2015 3:08 am

strange this as a beach fisherman (hobby) the uk has had a very good yr for codling small but in good amounts .it was more to do with over fishing ..the rest of the eu catch and eat young cod and any other fish they get there hands on so stocks have no way of bouncing back ..but I can see it getting better with the new rules in place and being inforced

Dave Ward
April 15, 2015 3:56 am

@ george e. smith
April 14, 2015 at 12:13 pm
“You’ve got to have paper with ink on it to wrap fish and chips in, so once the nonews is all digital, there will be nothing to wrap fish and chips in.”
Fish and chip shops don’t use newspaper to wrap their products these days, and haven’t for years. The “Elf & Safety” brigade outlawed the practice – concerns about germs and chemicals in the ink, if I remember correctly. Some may still use newsprint for outer wrapping, but not before fresh (bleached?) white paper is used for the first layer…

george e. smith
Reply to  Dave Ward
April 15, 2015 1:51 pm

So just who was the last poor unlucky individual who died from eating fish and chips out of a newspaper ? I grew up on the newswrappings, and I don’t think I even tasted anything funny.
Some busybodies just have far too much time on their hands. We need much more grid lock in WDC, to frustrate the meddlers.

Cube
April 15, 2015 7:31 am

philincalifornia April 14, 2015 at 9:41 am
From the BBC report on it:
“The flat fish are really in trouble,” Dr Simpson, a researcher on the study, told BBC News.
“Unless they can change their habitat and diet in the next 20 or 30 years, or adapt to 2 degrees more warming – which is a big ask – then they will decline.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32286800
What a load of fertilizer! For the last several years we’ve been catching large winter flounder off the NJ coast- in July! We can’t keep them of course, you’re not allowed to keep anything anymore, but catching winter fish in the summer is no indication of warming! There is no shortage of cod down here either, though I can’t speak to the Grand Banks.

Evan Jones
Editor
April 18, 2015 2:39 pm

If fishes were wishes, we’d all go nuts.

Justthinkin
April 20, 2015 4:21 am

Hasn’t anybody learned that if you let the government meddle in anything, it is doomed? They are all just political wh@res, seeking a pension. At least the wh@res on the street give you something for your money! We have a 200 mile territorial limit on the Grand Banks, but we let every Tom,Dick,and Harry in to fish. Stupid, or just stupider? And the greatest and most efficient killers of cod are seals. But can’t kill them, thanks to Euro-weenies. Sometimes I think we should have just let Germany have them all. Sad.

%d bloggers like this: