Guest essay by David Archibald
A few years ago, Professor Humlum, Professor Solheim and myself mounted a meteorological expedition to Svalbard on the island of Spitzbergen, with the attendance of some others. The expedition was armed and sustainable, as reported in WUWT here. In that report, it was noted that “the fall in temperature of the Atlantic Ocean to the west of Norway from the peak in 2006 has been just as fast as the rise from 1990. When will the cooling stop and at what level?” Well, the cooling hasn’t stopped and the rate of temperature fall has steepened up. Meteorologist Paul Dorian has described the implications of this on his site Vencore Weather.
This is the current state of the heat content of the North Atlantic water column from Professor Humlum’s site climate4you. Firstly the location of the area measured:
The heat content updated to December 2015:
From its peak a decade ago, the temperature of this water column has fallen 1.0°C despite the fluctuations in the temperature of the air column above it. The rate of temperature decline has steepened up such that the levels of the 1970s cooling period will be reached by 2018.
Europe has just experienced snowfalls in late April. That is not so unusual. Three years ago there was snow in Europe in late May as far south as northern Spain and Italy. Snow in May will just become more usual to the point of being unremarkable. The North Atlantic’s heat content is no longer getting any help from the Sun with the F10.7 flux spending more time below 100, the breakover between heating and cooling, than above it:
As to the mechanism of the cooling of the North Atlantic water column when the atmosphere above it has yet to follow, perhaps a solar explanation is too simplistic. The scientific premise of the movie The Day After Tomorrow is that global warming will cause a slowing of the Gulf Stream and in turn that will cause severe cooling. Unless we can get up-to-date data on the Gulf Stream that disproves that theory, can it be dismissed out of hand? Counter-intuitive though it might seem, it may be that the cooling of the North Atlantic water column is the only evidence that provides proof of the AGW theory. Perhaps it is time to question some long-held beliefs.
David Archibald is the author of Twilight of Abundance.