People send me stuff. Yesterday I got a note suggesting I have a look at what NOAA/NCDC’s “climate at a glance” was showing for trends in the 21st century so far.
I decided to take a look. Continue reading
There may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly ENSO Update to the right. (Please click on illustration for full-sized image.) In their update, NOAA also makes note of that anomaly during their discussion of the Hovmoller on their page 15. That subsurface temperature anomaly appears to have been caused by the recirculation of warm water from the earlier downwelling (warm) Kevin wave, not by another westerly wind burst. Come along, I’ll show you. Continue reading
What Slow Fourier Transforms can tell us.
Guest essay by Stan Robertson, Ph.D., P.E.
On May 3, 2014, an article on WUWT by Willis Eschenbach entitled, The Slow Fourier Transform (SFT) was posted. As he noted, the amplitude of the Slow Fourier Transform components are in the same units as the fitted data, intervals of arbitrary length and irregular data can be used and periodicities rather than frequencies are automatically extracted. In addition to rediscovering a very useful mathematical tool, Willis went on to show that there were apparently no variations of temperature associated with solar cycle variations for several long term temperature records. Now my normal inclination would be to say that if Willis didn’t find any there probably aren’t many to be found. But, on the other hand, as I showed in an October 10, 2013 WUWT article entitled The Sun Does It: Now Go Figure Out How!, it does not take much of a temperature variation to represent a very significant solar contribution to ocean surface temperatures and heat content.
Contradictory contest criteria have been rectified via Keating “clarification”
Guest post by Alec Rawls
At first glance retired physics teacher Christopher Keating’s challenge appears to be an obvious bait and switch. It opens as an invitation to “global warming skeptics” who charge that “the science doesn’t support claims of man-made climate change.” The central “claim of man-made climate change” is the IPCC’s assertion in AR5 that: “It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century” (AR5 WGI SPM p. 17, upped from “very likely” in AR4 and “likely” in the Third Area Report). So wait a minute. All we have to do is demonstrate that this assertion of great certainty that human activity caused most late 20th century warming is clearly unsupported by the available reason and evidence and Keating will give us $30,000? That is easily done. But then the first stated rule of his contest asserts a very different criterion: Continue reading
(Via the HockeySchtick)
A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that clean air laws which greatly reduced sulfur dioxide emissions explain 81% of the “brightening” of sunshine and 23% of the surface warming in Europe since 1980. However, the authors note “this phenomenon is however hardly reproduced by global and regional climate models.”
This short video (4:30) was shot and edited by videographer Paul Budline from New Jersey, and it encapsulates short clips from many of the speakers at the conference. It is a good summary and worth your time. There’s a bit of a “Friday Funny” on “big oil” that follows too.
For the purpose of full disclosure, Budline in an email to me noted that: Continue reading
Sorry this update is late. I got sidetracked with the post about Risbey et al. (2014), and the post about the new climate model, now with knobs.
This post provides an update of the data for the three primary suppliers of global land+ocean surface temperature data—GISS and NCDC through June 2014 and HADCRUT4 through May 2014—and of the two suppliers of satellite-based lower troposphere temperature data (RSS and UAH) through June 2014.
But, we already knew that from experience. However, a lot of models still treat climate as a mostly or near linear process, and that’s why they aren’t performing particularly well at even predicting the present.
(via the Hockeyschtick) A paper published July in Science says “the climate system can be highly nonlinear, meaning that small changes in one part can lead to much larger changes elsewhere.” Continue reading
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I’ve been remiss in my duties as travel correspondent. When last heard from, the gorgeous ex-fiancee and I were rolling out of Butte, Montana in a rented car. At the end of the day, we arrived in Missoula, Montana, one of the two goals of the trip. It’s the home of a most interesting friend. He’s a mad keen environmentalist of the best kind, a bird expert, PhD scientist, conservation biologist of the highest order … and the kind that loves to hunt and fish. A couple years ago he and I and another friend were out hunting grouse in the snow, and he’d lent me a pair of his hunting gloves before we started out.
Unfortunately or fortunately, when I went home I’d forgotten his gloves were in the pocket of my jacket. When I came across them, I thought about mailing them, but then I realized that they were the perfect excuse for a return trip to Montana. It’s a perfect Montana plan, drive 1,500 miles to return a pair of hunting gloves. And now we were in Montana, in Missoula, his town. We took a room in a hotel and as always, went out for a walk. It’s a lovely town, on the banks of the Clark Fork river. Continue reading
Erie, CO image from the Govt Facebook Page – click for more.
Simon Lomax writes at Energy Indepth:
Local officials in Erie, Colo., are pushing back hard against a national environmental group for misrepresenting the outcome of a failed “ban fracking” campaign in their town. The officials say the Massachusetts-based group has “ignored or misstated” the facts, including a number of scientific analyses posted on the town’s website, and they are demanding to know: “Why did you ignore this information?” Continue reading
I wonder how they’ll manage to put 25,000 offshore wind turbines in place after seeing the long battle (back to 2001 for the first permit) to get Cape Wind in Massachusetts approved with enviros switching sides to protect viewsheds, and it still isn’t built. I can’t see California’s sensitive coastline to go any easier, and never mind the other projects they propose, which will have their own challenges. The biggest failure of the plan seems to be lack of backup power for when the wind doesn’t blow, the sun doesn’t shine, and the tides are lower than usual. – Anthony
Stanford study shows how to power California with wind, water and sun (press release via Eurekalert)
New Stanford research outlines the path to a possible future for California in which renewable energy creates a healthier environment, generates jobs and stabilizes energy prices. Continue reading
Essay by Dr. Tim Ball (Elaboration of my Heartland Climate Conference Presentation)
We’re drowning in information and starving for knowledge. Rutherford Rogers
So-called climate skeptics, practicing proper science by disproving the hypothesis that human CO2 is causing global warming, achieved a great deal. This, despite harassment by formal science agencies, like the Royal Society, and deliberate neglect by the mainstream media. It combined with an active and deliberate Public Relations campaign, designed to mislead and confuse. Most people and politicians understand little of what is going on so the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strategy of using created science for a political agenda moves ahead. Continue reading
New Paper by McKitrick and Vogelsang comparing models and observations in the tropical troposphere
This is a guest post by Ross McKitrick (at Climate Audit). Tim Vogelsang and I have a new paper comparing climate models and observations over a 55-year span (1958-2012) in the tropical troposphere. Among other things we show that climate models are inconsistent with the HadAT, RICH and RAOBCORE weather balloon series. In a nutshell, the models not only predict far too much warming, but they potentially get the nature of the change wrong. The models portray a relatively smooth upward trend over the whole span, while the data exhibit a single jump in the late 1970s, with no statistically significant trend either side. Continue reading
From the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
An increase in temperature by 2050 may be advantageous to the growth of forage plants
With a 2°C increase in temperature, the plant Stylosanthes capitata Vogel was able to increase its leaf area and biomass in a study carried out by researchers at the University of São Paulo
A response to A conversation with Dr. Roger Pielke Jr.
Guest essay by Scott Bennett
Willis Eschenbach described the Kaya Identity as being “trivially true”, his opinion is uncontested by Dr Pielke Jr., whose only retort in its defence was, ‘the math is simple’.
The Kaya is a simple Identity, used as a tautological instrument. To deny this, would be to deny the very heart of its utility. The algebraic cancellation and isolation of its terms is de rigueur for its use. Continue reading
From the Carnegie Institution Climate change and the soil
Climate warming may not drive net losses of soil carbon from tropical forests
Washington, DC — The planet’s soil releases about 60 billion tons of carbon into the atmosphere each year, which is far more than that released by burning fossil fuels. This happens through a process called soil respiration. This enormous release of carbon is balanced by carbon coming into the soil system from falling leaves and other plant matter, as well as by the underground activities of plant roots.
In my travels surveying weather stations around the United States, I met many dedicated observers like this one. It is sad indeed that their painstakingly recorded data by observers like this one gets adjusted by NCDC to give results that aren’t the same as what they observed. I have some comments, data, and photos about the station that follow, but let me say to Mr. Hendrickson first; thank you sincerely for your service and dedication.
NOAA honors New York farmer for 84 years of service as volunteer weather observer (press release)
When Richard G. Hendrickson (seen at right) logged his first weather observation for the U.S. Weather Bureau, the precursor to NOAA’s National Weather Service, Herbert Hoover occupied the White House. Since then the Bridgehampton, New York, farmer has filed twice daily reports, tallying more than 150,000 individual weather observations – playing a critical role in building our nation’s climate history. Continue reading
Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…
People send me stuff.
An entertaining row has emerged over the behavior of the director of Greenpeace International Program, Pascal Husting, and the Greenpeace International Executive Director, Kumi Naidoo. It seems they are both are in hot water over airplanes and the troops are sending angry letters, like the one I have below. Continue reading
A new paper published in Ecological Modelling finds climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 concentrations is significantly lower than estimates from the IPCC and climate models which “utilize uncertain historical data and make various assumptions about forcings.” The author instead uses a ‘minimal model’ with the fewest possible assumptions and least data uncertainty to derive a transient climate sensitivity of only 1.093C:
From NASA JPL and the department of future CO2 emissions ticketing:
OCO-2 Data to Lead Scientists Forward into the Past
NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2, which launched on July 2, will soon be providing about 100,000 high-quality measurements each day of carbon dioxide concentrations from around the globe. Atmospheric scientists are excited about that. But to understand the processes that control the amount of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, they need to know more than just where carbon dioxide is now. They need to know where it has been. It takes more than great data to figure that out. Continue reading
Note: This is a follow up post to this one: Claim: Antartica record high sea ice partially an artifact of an algorithm I’d actually planned to write a rebuttal like this, but a wonky T-1 data line took all my time today, so the honor goes to Pat and Chip – Anthony
Molehill of Antarctic Ice Becomes a Mountain
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger
In science,…novelty emerges only with difficulty, manifested by resistance, against a background provided by expectation. Initially, only the anticipated and usual are experienced even under circumstances where the anomaly is later to be observed. –Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (1962)
One of global warming’s “novelties” is that satellite measurements show the extent of ice surrounding Antarctica is growing significantly, something not anticipated by our vaunted climate models. Continue reading
Embarrassed by the stubborn refusal of polar bears to die out, or even to appear convincingly rare, climate scientists are touting a new poster child species for our collective climate guilt – the white lemuroid ringtail possum.
From the European Geosciences Union
Tabular iceberg surrounded by sea ice in the Antarctic (Credit: Eva Nowatzki, distributed via imaggeo.egu.eu)
New research suggests that Antarctic sea ice may not be expanding as fast as previously thought. A team of scientists say much of the increase measured for Southern Hemisphere sea ice could be due to a processing error in the satellite data. The findings are published today in The Cryosphere, a journal of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). Continue reading
Nuclear war simulation forgets the Medieval Climate Optimum
Story submitted by P. Wayne Townsend
Yesterday’s Daily Mail carried an article about a simulation of the climate consequences of nuclear war. The paper Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict is not paywalled gives the usual horror stories (nuclear winter, crop failures, etc.).
What caught my eye was this idea intellectual relic found in both the Daily Mail article and here quoted from the abstract of itself. Continue reading
UEA: Oceans moderate the climate
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
h/t The Register – University of East Anglia researchers have challenged the view that any planet in the Goldilocks zone (the right distance from a star so water is likely to be liquid) is likely to be habitable.
New research shows that without an ocean, and the right rate of rotation, a planet is likely to experience extremes of temperature which make it unlikely to harbour life.
Statistical analysis shows pattern consistent with pre-industrial temperature swings, study concludes
From McGill University’s Shaun Lovejoy
Statistical analysis of average global temperatures between 1998 and 2013 shows that the slowdown in global warming during this period is consistent with natural variations in temperature, according to research by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.
In a paper published this month in Geophysical Research Letters, Lovejoy concludes that a natural cooling fluctuation during this period largely masked the warming effects of a continued increase in man-made emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
What do vegetarian zombies eat? Source: geekicorn.com
From the meatheads at the Carnegie Institution
Climate: Meat turns up the heat
Stanford, CA—Eating meat contributes to climate change, due to greenhouse gasses emitted by livestock. New research finds that livestock emissions are on the rise and that beef cattle are responsible for far more greenhouse gas emissions than other types of animals. It is published by Climactic Change. Continue reading
Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist’s Journey to Climate Skepticism
Two of the world’s premiere ocean scientists from Harvard and MIT have addressed the data limitations that currently prevent the oceanographic community from resolving the differences among various estimates of changing ocean heat content (in print but available here).3 They point out where future data is most needed so these ambiguities do not persist into the next several decades of change. As a by-product of that analysis they 1) determined the deepest oceans are cooling, 2) estimated a much slower rate of ocean warming, 3) highlighted where the greatest uncertainties existed due to the ever changing locations of heating and cooling, and 4) specified concerns with previous methods used to construct changes in ocean heat content, such as Balmaseda and Trenberth’s re-analysis (see below).13 They concluded, “Direct determination of changes in oceanic heat content over the last 20 years are not in conflict with estimates of the radiative forcing, but the uncertainties remain too large to rationalize e.g., the apparent “pause” in warming.”
Sunshine hours writes:
I have been a bit worried about the deep deep dive in Antarctica Sea Ice Extent.
It appears to be a processing or sensor error. As of today the NSIDC data confirms it. (see image below)
In a deja vu all over again moment, I find that it isn’t just the Antarctic with wonky readings. Continue reading
The Week That Was: 2014-07-19 (July 19, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers.[or relies on TV news] Thomas Jefferson [H/t Tim Ball] Number of the Week: +0.69 ºC or +1.24 ºF
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
ICCC-9: The Ninth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC-9) sponsored by the Heartland Institute continues to garner attention. Roy Spencer, co-developer of the method of measuring atmospheric temperatures via satellites, the most comprehensive temperature record in existence, wrote that it was the most energetic of the Heartland conferences he has attended over the years. Continue reading
UPDATE 2: Animation 1 from this post is happily displaying the differences between the “Best” models and observations in the first comment at a well-known alarmist blog. Please see update 2 at the end of this post.
# # # #
UPDATE: Please see the update at the end of the post.
# # #
The new paper Risbey et al. (2014) will likely be very controversial based solely on the two co-authors identified in the title above (and shown in the photos to the right). As a result, I suspect it will garner a lot of attention…a lot of attention. This post is not about those two controversial authors, though their contributions to the paper are discussed. This post is about the numerous curiosities in the paper. For those new to discussions of global warming, I’ve tried to make this post as non-technical as possible, but these are comments on a scientific paper.
People send me stuff. In this case I have received an embargoed paper and press release from Nature from another member of the news media who wanted me to look at it.
The new paper is scheduled to be published in Nature and is embargoed until 10AM PDT Sunday morning, July 20th. That said, Bob Tisdale and I have been examining the paper, which oddly includes co-authors Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky and Dr. Naomi Oreskes and is on the topic of ENSO and “the pause” in global warming. I say oddly because neither Lewandowsky or Oreskes concentrates on physical science, but direct their work towards psychology and science history respectively.
Tisdale found a potentially fatal glaring oversight, which I verified, and as a professional courtesy I have notified two people who are listed as authors on the paper. It has been 24 hours, and I have no response from either. Since it is possible that they have not received these emails, I thought it would be useful to post my emails to them here. Continue reading
South Korea announces delay the day after Australia’s carbon tax repeal
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
In a sign that rejection of climate alarm is gathering momentum, South Korea has thrown doubt on its carbon plans. Significantly, the announcement was made the day after Australia abolished the carbon tax. According to the report; Continue reading
As many readers know, there was quite a hullaballo over the Kaya Identity last week, two posts by Willis Eschenbach here and here created sides seemingly equally split on whether the equation is useful or not.
One of the most strident critics was Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., and in the spirit of keeping an open mind on the issue, I offered him space on WUWT. Here is my email and his response, reprinted with his explicit permission. Continue reading