Boat Delivery

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Last night I turned to the gorgeous ex-fiancee and said “Man, I can’t believe I’m shipping out to sea again! I thought I would have learned my lesson by now”. She just laughed. So, up at 4:15 AM and rolling at 5 through the foggy vineyards of Sonoma to the coast range 1local airport. Of course, the cheap flight to Vancouver, Canada can’t just go north, nooo … first I fly 600 miles south to LA, and from there one long jump north to Vancouver.

The mountains of the coastal ring of fire are amazing, particularly now in July when the plains have no snow. I’m going north to be first mate delivering a fishing boat from northern Vancouver Island to southern Oregon. Oh, and did I mention we’re towing another boat as well? Continue reading

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Posted in Willis Autobiography | 8 Comments

Remember the threat of flooded atolls and climate refugees due to sea level rise? Never mind.

From the AAAS Science Magazine and the department of “we told you so” again, and again, and again, comes this “revelation”.

Warming may not swamp islands

by Christopher Pala  Science 1 August 2014:  Vol. 345 no. 6196 pp. 496-497 DOI: 10.1126/science.345.6196.496

In an interview with CNN last month, Anote Tong, the president of Kiribati, insisted that rising sea levels due to global warming will mean “total annihilation” for this nation of 33 coral islands in the Central Pacific and for other atoll island nations like Tuvalu and the Maldives. Continue reading

Posted in Sea level | 30 Comments

Tropical Storm Bertha forms

Latest bulletin, tracking map at right, click to enlarge.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER  1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014

…TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES… …TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED…
Continue reading

Posted in hurricanes, Weather | 11 Comments

So far in 2014, record low temperatures outpace record highs nearly 2-1 in the USA

Numbers released today by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center show that not only has July been abnormally cool in the USA, but so has 2014 in general. For the last 30 days, there have been 574 record highest temperatures in the USA, and 1,726 record lowest. A ratio of 3 to 1, indicating that July was very cool. But, the year so far has also been cool.

So far for the USA year to date, the numbers of record lows outpace the highs two to one.

Continue reading

Posted in records, Weather | 61 Comments

Extremes Of Temperature Decreasing In The US

imageGuest essay by Paul Homewood

WUWT carried the story yesterday of the paper by Kodra & Ganguly, forecasting a wider range of temperature extremes in the future.

According to the Northeastern University press release, using climate models and reanalysis datasets, the authors found that

While global tem­per­a­ture is indeed increasing, so too is the vari­ability in tem­per­a­ture extremes. For instance, while each year’s average hottest and coldest tem­per­a­tures will likely rise, those aver­ages will also tend to fall within a wider range of poten­tial high and low tem­perate extremes than are cur­rently being observed.

But is there any evidence that this has been happening? We can check what’s been happening in the US, by using the US Climate Extremes Index, produced by NOAA.

Continue reading

Posted in extreme weather | 46 Comments

Australian Tropical Cyclone activity said to be at the lowest level in modern history

satellite_thumb[1]Jonathan Nott, James Cook University gave this presentation at the: Distinguished Lecture, 31 July, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 11th Annual Meeting 2014, Sapporo, Japan.

Applying the Palaeo-tropical Cyclone Record

Palaeo-tropical cyclone records have to date been predominantly used to depict long-term trends as well as attempting to understand the causes of these trends. These records can also be useful for more immediate timescales such a reliably deriving the frequency and magnitude of events for present day planning purposes and also for assessing whether tropical cyclones are responding to global climate change. Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, hurricanes, Paleoclimatology, Weather | 25 Comments

The ‘Gore effect’ turns ugly – CNN climate bias revealed

You know of the “Gore effect“, Wikiepedia describes it as  “…an informal and satirical term which alleges a causal relationship between unseasonable cold weather phenomena and global warming activism”, so it was appropriate to apply to the situation where the Gore’s Climate Reality Project group tried a political ploys that looked stupid: “I’m Too Hot” trucks and offers of free ice cream to this week’s Environmental Protection Agency hearings on power-plant emissions…when it was 58 degrees and raining. Obviously, CNN’s Bill Weir doesn’t understand satire, much less how to be a professional journalist.

From Mediaite:

It’s safe to say CNN anchor Bill Weir is not a fan of climate change deniers.

On Thursday, the Twitter account for Fox Nation, a blog run by Fox News, tweeted a link to a post headlined, “Climate Doesn’t Cooperate With Al Gore’s Group’s Visit to Denver EPA Hearings.” Continue reading

Posted in Al Gore, Climate ugliness, media | 145 Comments

Capture the Sun & Power America With Solar – Is There a Business Case?

black_solar_cellGuest essay by Philip Dowd

Whenever the subject of renewable energy comes up, the conversation usually turns to solar. You hear statements like: “The world receives more energy from the sun in one hour than the global economy uses in one year.”[a] You then ask yourself; “Why can’t we just capture the energy from the sun and solve our energy problem that way?” Why not, indeed? Continue reading

Posted in Energy, solar power | 229 Comments

The Unqualified Judging the Self-Interested

Scientists largely removed from the consideration of science

Story submitted by Tom Barr

The U.K.’s Energy and Climate Change Committee [yesterday] endorsed the IPCC’s 2014 opinion that humans are the dominant cause of global warming.

In a 9 to 2 vote in a parallel universe the “Science was Settled”, yet again. But not by scientists, of course. Let’s look at the MPs who voted: Of the 9 in favour at least one had fiddled his expenses, just six held degrees and only one of them in what could be considered a scientific field, Human Biology. Continue reading

Posted in Government idiocy, IPCC | 73 Comments

CO2, destroyer of entire continents at the touch of a knob

CO2_knobFrom the University of New Hampshire  and the department of “CO2 controls everything with a single big red knob” (as stated in the article) comes this modeling inanity. Never mind that after the continental breakup the continent of Antarctica is now on the bottom of the world and gets dark for months and super cold, nooooo, it’s CO2 wot dun it. Climate models can’t even get the present right,  so I have serious doubts they’ll get 34 million years ago, where we have far less data, right either.

Antarctic ice sheet is result of CO2 decrease, not continental breakup

DURHAM, N.H. – Climate modelers from the University of New Hampshire have shown that the most likely explanation for the initiation of Antarctic glaciation during a major climate shift 34 million years ago was decreased carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. The finding counters a 40-year-old theory suggesting massive rearrangements of Earth’s continents caused global cooling and the abrupt formation of the Antarctic ice sheet. It will provide scientists insight into the climate change implications of current rising global CO2 levels.

Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Carbon dioxide, Modeling | 80 Comments

BREAKING: Senate report exposes the climate-environmental movement as being a cash machine controlling the EPA

How a Club of Billionaires and Their Foundations Control the Environmental Movement and Obama’s EPA

A new report was released today by the Senate Environment and Public Works committee, and it is damning. All this time that climate skeptics are accused of being in the employ of “big oil” is nothing more than a projection of their own greed.

Some excerpts:

Over 7.9 BILLION in funding between these groups.  Continue reading

Posted in Climate cash, EPA, Green Mafia, NGOs | 125 Comments

New paper from Nic Lewis on climate sensitivity corrects ‘prior’ errors in an IPCC AR4 reference

Climate sensitivity distributions retained (and in some cases recast) by the IPCC from their assessment of the literature. Source: IPCC AR4

Nic Lewis has a new post at Climate Audit that deals with some assumptions that went into IPCC AR4’s use of a uniform prior for estimating climate sensitivity.

He has shown it to be faulty, to the point that would normally be cause for a retraction, but this is Climate Science, where being wrong is simply a shade of grey, not black, nor white.

He writes: Continue reading

Posted in Bad science, Climate sensitivity, IPCC | 37 Comments

Heap big data science at Northeastern University

From Northeastern University via Eurekalert, and the department of modeling for 10 million dollars, this seems to be all they could come up with. Nature has a way however, of taking the the best laid plans and rendering them moot. I don’t think they’ve noted ‘the pause’ yet. There’s no paper listed, nor data references, nothing, making it one of the worst press releases I’ve seen in awhile. The press release upstream at the University is hardly any better, citing the 97% consensus as if it has anything to do with extremes modeling, but at least they gave a link to the paper where Eurekalert didn’t.

Big data confirms climate extremes are here to stay

In a paper published online today in the journal Scientific Reports, published by Nature, Northeastern researchers Evan Kodra and Auroop Ganguly found that while global temperature is indeed increasing, so too is the variability in temperature extremes. For instance, while each year’s average hottest and coldest temperatures will likely rise, those averages will also tend to fall within a wider range of potential high and low temperate extremes than are currently being observed. This means that even as overall temperatures rise, we may still continue to experience extreme cold snaps, said Kodra.

Continue reading

Posted in extreme weather | 110 Comments

List of excuses for ‘the pause’ now up to 29

The last time I wrote about this, it was ten:

top10_pause_explanations

Updated list of 29 excuses for the 18 year ‘pause’ in global warming (thanks to The Hockey Schtick).   Continue reading

Posted in Hiatus in Global Warming | 118 Comments

100 year old cold record broken in Huntsville, AL

Actually, two new records; one for high one for low. This from earlier:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
132 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT HUNTSVILLE...

A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS TIED AT
HUNTSVILLE ON TUESDAY (7-29-14). THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 81 SET
IN 2006.

Actually, they have the wording backwards, it is supposed to be record low maximum. Obviously 81 degrees is not that warm for July in Alabama. They’ll probably issue a correction later. The NWS predicted the new record low earlier with this graphic: Continue reading

Posted in records, Weather | 83 Comments

These are the sort of people we are up against

While Steve McIntyre writes in detail about the sorts of gyrations that went on behind the scenes with Ove Hugh-Goldberg and John Cook, trying to prevent having to reveal Cooks’ rating data on his “97% consensus” paper by requests from Dr. Richard Tol, I stumbled across something so hateful, so juvenile, so bereft of moral character, that I couldn’t just let it be, and believe me I thought long and hard about whether to bring this up. I decided that certain forms of abuse just can’t go unchallenged.

It’s one thing to say things about me because I hold contrary ideas about global warming, that’s fair game. But I have to say that combining that criticism of my views on global warming with taunts over my hearing problem, is just so over-the-top and beyond decency, that it deserves a notice here. Continue reading

Posted in Climate ugliness

Temperature analysis of 5 datasets shows the ‘Great Pause’ has endured for 13 years, 4 months

Time to sweep away the flawed, failed IPCC

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

HadCRUT4, always the tardiest of the five global-temperature datasets, has at last coughed up its monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly value for June. So here is a six-monthly update on changes in global temperature since 1950, the year when the IPCC says we might first have begun to affect the climate by increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

The three established terrestrial temperature dataset that publish global monthly anomalies are GISS, HadCRUT4, and NCDC. Graphs for each are below.

Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Climate News, Hiatus in Global Warming | 174 Comments

Quote of the Week – The ‘Lie Big’ Law (Or why can’t John Cook tell the truth?)

qotw_croppedTwo words of the headline are a pun on Liebig’s law, something we covered in the context of another big lie: the “hockey stick”.

Steve McIntyre in a post last Saturday writes of Cook’s Fake Ethics Approval and has this hilarious exchange: Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus, Climate Communications, Climate ugliness, FOI, Opinion | 70 Comments

A brief history of climate panic and crisis… both warming and cooling

GWBurningFrozenEarth[1]

Earth: A Climate Janus

From But Now You Know. There is most certainly a pattern to climate change…but it’s not what you may think:

For at least 114 120 years, climate “scientists” have been claiming that the climate was going to kill us…but they have kept switching whether it was a coming ice age, or global warming.

(A timeline of claims follows, updated to 2014)

Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | 65 Comments

Climate Change ‘stock trading’

From Motif Investing (h/t to John Coleman)

Climate change has become more than a hot topic. With carbon dioxide levels at all-time highs and temperatures on the rise, concerns over global warming1 are increasingly leading to government action and policy changes. President Obama announced a ‘Climate Action Plan’ to cut 3 billion tons of carbon pollution by 2025, with an increased emphasis towards clean and efficient energy.2
Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | 31 Comments

EPA document supports ~3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources

NOTE: this post has an error, see update below. – Anthony

From a Wry Heat reprinted with permission of Jonathan DuHamel

A new post on The Hockey Schtick reviews a new paper “that finds only about 3.75% [15 ppm] of the CO2 in the lower atmosphere is man-made from the burning of fossil fuels, and thus, the vast remainder of the 400 ppm atmospheric CO2 is from land-use changes and natural sources such as ocean outgassing and plant respiration.”

This new work supports an old table from the Energy Information Administration which shows the same thing: only about 3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources.  The numbers are from IPCC data.  Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus, Carbon dioxide | 248 Comments

Climate spin – more than just a game, it’s ‘Wheel of Gore’

Over at Ben Garrison’s website, he writes about climate change and produces a grrraphic.

One thing I don’t like about true believers is they like to set up extreme negatives for those who disbelieve. Continue reading

Posted in Al Gore, Humor, Satire | 45 Comments

New study claims to confirm water vapor as global warming amplifier – but other data says no

Just because something is said to be an amplifier doesn’t mean it actually is doing so, plus other datasets don’t show an increase in water vapor.  See below. Also, you gotta love the big burning ball of hot they included with the press release.

From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science

Scientists suggest that water vapor will intensify future climate change projections

This is a color enhanced satellite image of upper tropospheric water vapor.

MIAMI – A new study from scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and colleagues confirms rising levels of water vapor in the upper troposphere – a key amplifier of global warming – will intensify climate change impacts over the next decades. The new study is the first to show that increased water vapor concentrations in the atmosphere are a direct result of human activities.

“The study is the first to confirm that human activities have increased water vapor in the upper troposphere,” said Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric sciences at the UM Rosenstiel School and co-author of the study.

Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, feedbacks | 119 Comments

Remember that claim from NSIDC and Walt Meier that the Antarctic ice expansion was due to a ‘processing error’? …never mind

NASA scientist says that error has long since been corrected and the increase in sea ice in Antarctica is real.

As readers know, we announced this paper (which was under embargo): Claim: Antartica record high sea ice partially an artifact of an algorithm

Cato’s Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger said the whole thing was not an ice mountain, but a molehill: Of mountains, molehills, and noisy bumps  in the sea-ice record writing:

“If the reason that the shift was undetected is because the data is so noisy, how important can it be?”

Continue reading

Posted in Antarctic, Sea ice | 46 Comments

Who’s really waging the ‘war on science’?

When it comes to attacking climate scientists, the alarmist Left has the market cornered

Guest opinion by Paul Driessen

Global warming alarmists constantly claim they are being “harassed” by climate chaos skeptics. The Climate Armageddon-istas proclaim they are victims, and the American Geophysical Union has even created a “Climate Science Legal Defense Fund,” to pay mounting legal bills that alarmist scientists like Michael Mann have incurred. But the real war on honest science and scientists is being waged by those who have garnered billions of taxpayer, foundation and corporate dollars for alarmist research, and thus have the most to lose when the public finally figures out what’s been going on. No wonder they are in a tizzy.

My article this week explores these issues – primarily by reviewing two cases where scientists really have been singled out, vilified and persecuted: Dr. Patrick Michaels from the University of Virginia, and Dr. David Legates at the University of Delaware.

Continue reading

Posted in Climate cash, FOI | 67 Comments

Germany’s green tech forces 400x increase in power rates

cost development for consumers from the EEG feed-in tariff, from 2003 to 2014, (eeg-kwk.net)

Cost development for consumers from the EEG feed-in tariff (eeg-kwk.net)

The price of a stabilized green power grid is very steep, one could say it is like a “hockey stick”

Story submitted by Eric Worrall  (h/t John Droz)

Coal and gas electricity companies are being paid up to 400x times the wholesale price of power, in return for helping to stabilize the German electricity grid.

According to Bloomberg, “Germany’s push toward renewable energy is causing so many drops and surges from wind and solar power that the government is paying more utilities than ever to help stabilize the country’s electricity grid.”

Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Coal, Energy, Green tech | 97 Comments

Analysis of Temperature Change using World Class Stations

Guest essay by Ron Clutz

This is a study to see what the world’s best stations (a subset of all stations I selected as “world class” by criteria) are telling us about climate change over the long term. There are three principle findings.

To be included, a station needed at least 200 years of continuous records up to the present. Geographical location was not a criterion for selection, only the quality and length of the histories. 247 years is the average length of service in this dataset extracted from CRUTEM4.  Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, Weather_stations | 124 Comments

Should you trust NOAA claims about May and June records?

Guest essay by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Last month was the hottest June since record keeping began in 1880, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Monday. It marked the third month in a row that global temperature reached a record high. According to the NOAA data, April and May were also global record-breakers. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was record high for the month at 16.22 degrees Celsius, or 0.72 degree Celsius above the 20th century average of 15.5 degrees Celsius,’ the NOAA said in its monthly climate report. “This surpasses the previous record, set in 2010, by 0.03 degrees Celsius.”.

Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, NCDC, NOAA, records, Weather | 187 Comments

The DDP Conference

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

I had the great pleasure of being invited to give a presentation at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) conference this weekend in Knoxville, Tennessee. It was a very interesting and professionally run conference, and I offer my thanks to Dr. Jane Orient knox co2 meterfor her invitation, and to her team for the doing endless logistic work that such a conference entails in a most efficient and nearly invisible manner.

The conference featured a host of fascinating speakers, and the city itself was most pleasant and interesting. I came with a stack of Powerpoint slides and a presentation on climate science. But then I thought “Wait a minute, these are doctors, not climate scientists”, and I ended up putting them aside and speaking for an hour with the main theme being the ancient medical admonition, “First do no harm”. Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Willis Autobiography | Tagged , | 144 Comments

Rate Of Climate Change and Rate of Adaptation Deliberately Distorted

Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball

There is nothing permanent except change. – Heraclitus

If you want things to stay as they are, things will have to change. – Giuseppe di Lamedusa

Moving the Goalposts Again.

Climate changes significantly all the time. Those who point this out are considered more dangerous than global warming skeptics. Perversely and incorrectly, they are called climate change deniers, with its holocaust connotations. However, even a brief examination of the historic record shows how much climate changes naturally. This information is reaching the public and reducing people’s fear and is encouraging questions. Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Politics | 80 Comments

There must be a Paul Ehrlich week in climate science

indicator3_2013_ProductionGrain[1]Yesterday, in Climactic headline shifts the hype factor between two headlines on crop production and climate was pointed out, noting that there was just a small increase in risk. Today we have another similar press release, claiming that climate change (plus ozone air pollution) will cause crop production to slow down. So far, there is no indication of such a thing happening, even though Paul Ehrlich claimed for years that massive famines would happen as food production slowed.

From the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Study: Climate change and air pollution will combine to curb food supplies

Ozone and higher temperatures can combine to reduce crop yields, but effects will vary by region Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, Alarmism, Ozone | 48 Comments

‘Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.’

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1[1]

An example of predictions gone wrong

That headline is attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, but a later more popular version is attributed to Yogi Berra.

But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky.

That said, whether you are making climate predictions, or predictions about what kind of car and highway you’ll be driving in 20 years, predictions about the future are indeed difficult. I stumbled on this film from 1956 today by accident, and I just had to laugh at how far off the mark it was. It made me think of climate science and it’s failed predictions we see in the graph in the upper right. Continue reading

Posted in Forecasting, Fun_stuff, Modeling | 115 Comments

Climactic headline shifts

Bruce Hall alerts me to this headline from Eurkekalert which reads:

 Eurekalert_headline

But the real headline behind the headline is this one, at the actual source:  Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, media | 140 Comments

Taking Keating seriously part 2: the IPCC’s human-attribution claim is prima facie unscientific

ar5_ipcc_home_for-finalGuest post by Alec Rawls (see part 1)

Ex-physics teacher Christopher Keating, who strongly believes that human activity is causing dangerous global warming, is offering $30,000 to anyone who can prove that “claims of man-made climate change” are not supported by the science. What claims? He gives as an example the IPCC’s central assertion that: “It is extremely likely (95-100%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Easy money (if he would actually give it, but that is secondary). There are several grounds, already laid out by a variety of skeptics, why this claim of extreme scientific certainty is prima facie unscientific. Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | 110 Comments

Quote of the week – the last word on ‘97% consensus’, now in a bumper sticker

qotw_croppedOver at Scientific American, a place that isn’t hardly Scientific, nor American anymore (its owned by Germans IIRC) there’s a big row over Cook’s shoddy “97% consensus” paper in comments, mainly due to some pertinent ones asking some tough questions being deleted wholesale. SciAm is now citing policy as the reason.

What’s funny, contrary to SciAm policy (for vulgarities) is that the F-word is allowed in the article itself, used by Dan Kahan to describe a bumper sticker about that imagined “97% consensus”.

Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus, Quote of the Week | 103 Comments