Satellite captures five volcanoes erupting at once on the Russian Kamchatka Peninsula

Remote. Cold. Rugged. Those three adjectives capture the essence of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. Another word—perhaps more applicable than anywhere else on Earth—is “fiery.”

Of the roughly 1,550 volcanoes that have erupted in the recent geologic past, 113 are found on Kamchatka. Forty Kamchatkan volcanoes are “active,” either erupting now or capable of erupting on short notice. The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured activity at five of them during a single satellite pass on April 14, 2014.

Imagery follows.

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Posted in Volcanoes | 39 Comments

Decision expected tomorrow in Mann UVa FOIA case

At the blog “Open Virginia Law” they are discussing the Mann case and potential impacts, as a new session results will be published from the Supreme Court of Virginia, and it’s likely the Mann/UVa case is one of them.

Insiders tell me that even if Mann/UVa loses, they’ll likely take a on a new position and file a claim of First Amendment right to academic freedom prohibiting release of the ClimateGate and HockeyStick emails, and surely will again encourage Mann to join, each claiming the right rests with them. With Mann, it’s all about delaying the inevitable, unless of course somebody like the hero of Climategate “FOIA” decides to take matters into their own hands and stop this abuse of the legal system and FOIA law by making an email dump. I don’t underestimate that possibility.

Here’s the situation:

Climate change’s looming impact on Virginia’s FOIA

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Posted in Climategate, FOI, Michael E. Mann | 26 Comments

More tabloid climatology: gloom and doom about the jet stream, winters, and global warming

tabloid_climatology_onlyyouFrom the University of Utah, an argument that makes you wonder “what started it 4000 years ago”? Looking at another similar study, Joltin Joe Romm called that study Bombshell: Study Ties Epic California Drought, ‘Frigid East’ To Manmade Climate Change

While they focus on the recent winter as being an example of this errant jet stream pattern and persistent ridges,  they completely ignore an almost identical pattern in the winters of 1977/78 before global warming was even a funding twinkle in James Hansen’s eye.

In 1977, a nearly identical pattern set up with warmth in Alaska, drought in California, and cold in Florida. Arctic sea ice was near a peak at the time. (h/t Steve Goddard)

ScreenHunter_227 Apr. 15 15.39

ScreenHunter_226 Apr. 15 15.38

The Lewiston Journal – Google News Archive Search

Warm US West, cold East: A 4,000-year pattern

Global warming may bring more curvy jet streams during winter

SALT LAKE CITY, April 16, 2014 – Last winter’s curvy jet stream pattern brought mild temperatures to western North America and harsh cold to the East. A University of Utah-led study shows that pattern became more pronounced 4,000 years ago, and suggests it may worsen as Earth’s climate warms.

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Posted in extreme weather, Tabloid Climatology | 45 Comments

UN IPCC AR5 climate reports: Conjecture disguised as certainty

UN IPCC WG report process fails to integrate critical information

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

The world has experienced over the last 15+ years a remarkable absence of increasing global temperatures despite huge and growing increases in global CO2 emissions by the globes developing nations and despite claims by the UN IPCC that global temperature increases are dangerously out of control because of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. This embarrassing dichotomy is demonstrated in the diagram below.
The UN IPCC has completed its three part (WGI, WGII, WGIII) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) process where future climate findings are portrayed using “level of confidence” and “assessed likelihood” qualifiers that attempt to cast these outcomes in a cloak of scientific certainty.

Much of the analysis underlying these “level of confidence” and “assessed likelihood” climate findings are based upon the computer output obtained through the use of climate models identified as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP’s) cases 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Climate model RCP2.6 represents a low future CO2 emissions scenario case and climate model RCP8.5 represents a high future CO2 emissions scenario.


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Posted in IPCC, IPCC AR5 Report, Uncertainty | 66 Comments

Good news: no ‘ozone hole’ in the Arctic

From the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Plugging an ozone hole

MIT researchers find that the extremes in Antarctic ozone holes have not been matched in the Arctic


The Antarctic “Ozone Hole” has no similarly sized Arctic counterpart

CAMBRIDGE, Mass– Since the discovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, scientists, policymakers, and the public have wondered whether we might someday see a similarly extreme depletion of ozone over the Arctic.

But a new MIT study finds some cause for optimism: Ozone levels in the Arctic haven’t yet sunk to the extreme lows seen in Antarctica, in part because international efforts to limit ozone-depleting chemicals have been successful.


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Posted in Ozone | 111 Comments

Climate Craziness of the Week: Oh noes! Moths affected by ‘hidden’ factors of climate change

From the University of Michigan  and the department of Mothra studies, comes this big let down. Even though moths are supposedly affected by climate change, “90 percent of them were either stable or increasing” while the climate where they lived warmed. But wait! Moth scientists know there MUST be an effect, so in contradiction to their observations, the moth scientists claim the climate change effects are now apparently “hidden”. Hopefully, those moths thriving under global warming doesn’t lead to giant moths.

Mothra - courtesy Wikizilla

Mothra – also fictitious, like “hidden” climate effects, courtesy Wikizilla

Moth study suggests hidden climate change impacts

ANN ARBOR—A 32-year study of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland suggests that scientists may be underestimating the impacts of climate change on animals and plants because much of the harm is hidden from view.

The study analyzed populations of 80 moth species and found that 90 percent of them were either stable or increasing throughout the study period, from 1978 to 2009. During that time, average annual temperatures at the study site rose 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, and winter precipitation increased as well.


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Posted in Bad science, Climate Craziness of the Week | Tagged , , | 138 Comments

Ditto, Tom – ‘here are some things I believe’

Tom Nelson writes in a Response to Don Cheadle, some things I thought worth repeating here, because it succinctly sums up the position of many climate skeptics.

(This post was written to respond to Don’s Twitter question here)

Don, off the top of my head, here are some things I believe:


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Posted in Global warming, Opinion | 110 Comments

Quote of the week – beyond ‘noble cause corruption’

qotw_popcornA lot of popcorn is being consumed these days watching the wailing of the Lewandowsky lemming team as they furiously throw themselves over cyber-cliffs in support of a retracted paper that was doomed from the start by it’s own ethics violations: diagnosing people in absentia as having mental disorders, then using a science journal as a bully pulpit to name and shame those people.

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Posted in Climate ugliness, Noble Cause Corruption, Quote of the Week, Stephan Lewandowsky | Tagged , , , , , , | 76 Comments

A quorum of drama queens at Polar Bears International?

Dr. Susan Crockford, Zoologist, of advises us of this:

 “We are now the polar bear” says Mann today (below) [a few weeks ago it was Patricia Romero Lankao of the federally financed National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado saying "The polar bear is us"]

Scientists Speak Out: The New IPCC Report

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a U.N. group, warns that man-made climate change is already causing destruction around the globe. And it will only get worse unless we act quickly.

Leading climate and polar bear scientists share their thoughts on the report and the path forward:

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Posted in Polarbeargate, Post-normal science | 123 Comments

Major Errors Apparent in Climate Model Evaporation Estimates

Guest essay by Richard J. Petschauer, Senior Member IEEE

The physics of evaporation has complications related to what happens at the water / air interface such as wind speed and wave action. However if these factors remain constant, how evaporation changes with temperature and humidity can be estimated with well-known equations based on how water vapor pressure varies with temperature. For example, at a typical ocean temperature of 17 C, it should increase about 6.5% / C if the water vapor increases to maintain relative humidity, that the climate models indicate. If the surface air tracks the water within ± 2 C, the rate varies from 6.2% to 6.9% / C. Data over oceans by Wentz et, al (2007) report values of about 6% / C.

But the complex computer climate models show averages of only about 2.5% / C. There are no claims of reduced wind speeds or wave action or increased relative humidity to explain this. However many papers on the subject claim that the available energy is limiting evaporation in these models. But physics theory tells us that the latent energy for evaporation comes from the temperature of the water itself. The latent heat leaving the surface cools it and deposits heat in the atmosphere, part of which escapes to outer space. This combination causes negative feedback. The reduced net energy from increased CO2 still warms the surface, but this energy can’t be separated from what aids the final increased evaporation. A 6% / C increase applies to the water after the negative feedback is complete. Do the climate models ignore this cooling and feedback process?

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Posted in Modeling | 81 Comments

JPL Claim: Asian Pollution makes US Storms Worse

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

A new study from NASA’s JPL claims Asian air pollution causes worse storms in North America, especially during winter.


Satellite image showing smog over Bejing and Tianjin China. Image: NASA

According to abstract, the study used a global climate-aerosol model to compare current conditions with modelled pre-industrial conditions.

Lead author Yuan Wang, from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology, said: “The effects are quite dramatic. The pollution results in thicker and taller clouds and heavier precipitation.”

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Posted in Aerosols | 46 Comments

IPCC WGIII: throwing the greens under the bus

While the latest IPCC working group III summary report has its share of gloom and doom and ridiculous edicts, it does have one redeeming quality as Josh points out.


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Posted in Fracking, IPCC, nuclear power, Satire | 149 Comments

Another ‘fish story’ about ocean acidification where researchers fool themselves into thinking they are actually doing science


Coral Reef at Dobu Island, Milne Bay, PNG, with carbon dioxide bubbling through it (photo: Bob Halstead)

Readers may recall this previous fish story: CO2 increases to make drunken clownfish

Well, Danielle Dixon and Philip Munday are at it again.  This PR claim from the Georgia Institute of Technology  Fish from acidic ocean waters less able to smell predators smells fishy to me. Just ask any salt-water aquariaist how hard it is to simulate the ocean in a fish tank and keep the fish from being stressed.

The failure of this claim is clear when you watch the video below, showing natural CO2 bubbles coming off the sea floor in Milne Bay, in Papua New Guinea. They use this as the “control” for the experiment, according to the caption, when they should be using a normal reef and doing the experiments in situ. Instead, they transport these fish back to the the mobile lab (on a boat), perform experiments, and assume there is no difference in the environment that may contribute to behavioral differences. They apparently don’t stop to consider that BOTH groups of fish in the mobile lab might be stressed the same way. Worse, there’s no mention of transporting fish caught at a non-bubbling reef back to the mobile lab so that they can perform the same test on them and compare differences if any. Instead they say:  “The results do show that what Dixson and colleagues found in the lab matches with what is seen in the field.”

They simply ignored the most obvious control group test and did no actual in situ experiment.

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Posted in Bad science, Ocean acidification | 64 Comments

Seattle’s climate instantly cools 1.5 degrees

This is interesting, and of course it goes hand-in-hand with what I have been saying for years.

Scott Sistek, of KOMO News/Weather reports:


For several years the thermometer at SeaTac airport has been reporting temperatures 1-3 degrees above surrounding areas.

Instead, it seems the thermometer at Sea-Tac is finally back on track, reporting temperatures more realistic with respect to other nearby thermometers. It’s been a long suspicion among some local meteorologists that the thermometer at the airport been running a bit warm over the past few years, frequently reporting temperatures 1-3 degrees warmer than surrounding sites. (Both UW professor Cliff Mass and I have done blogs on this apparent warming in the past.)

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Posted in Climate data, GHCN, records, Weather, Weather_stations | 113 Comments

2014/15 El Niño – Part 3 – Early Evolution – Comparison with 1982/83 & 1997/98 El Niño Events

Comparisons are still being made of the 1997/98 El Niño with the El Niño forming this year. So I thought we should compare the weekly sea surface temperature anomalies for this year, in two NINO regions, with those during 1997 for the 1997/98 El Niño and 1982 for the 1982/83 El Niño. The 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events were the two strongest single-season events of the late 20th Century. (The 1986/87/88 El Niño wasn’t as strong as the 1982/83 El Niño in terms of peak sea surface temperature anomalies, but the 1986/87/88 event remained an El Niño for more than one year, so it was likely comparable to the 1982/83 El Niño if duration is taken into account.)

First, the NINO3.4 region, see Figure 1. The NINO3.4 region is bordered by the coordinates of 5S-5N, 170W-120W. See the illustration here for the location. It captures the sea surface temperature anomalies of the east-central equatorial Pacific. Sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region are a commonly used index for the strength, timing and duration of El Niño and La Niña events. And as you can see, the weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies still have not reached the +0.5 deg C threshold of El Niño conditions. It’s still a little early. They are presently at +0.31 Deg C compared to the reference years of 1971-2000.

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 59 Comments

Exploiting Human Misery and Distorting the Science: An environmentalist’s critique of “Years of Living Dangerously”

Guest essay by Jim Steele, Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University

In “Years of Living Dangerously” Hollywood’s Don Cheadle partners with Christian climate scientist Katharine Heyhoe to convince fellow Christians that they should trust the climate scientists who blame the misery brought by a Texas drought on rising CO2. Indeed in times of natural climate calamities, people suffer and become insecure as they confront nature’s awesome power.

Unfortunately that is when charlatans exploit their misery, making it truly a time of living dangerously. Quick interviews with ranchers who still believe the drought was caused naturally or by God was a feeble attempt to suggest it is religion that has blinded ranchers to the purported “science” of catastrophic climate change. Instead the documentary evoked memories of the 1956 movie “The Rainmaker.” Rancher Noah Curry tells Burt Lancaster (who is playing the Bill Starbuck the rainmaker), “We don’t believe in rainmakers!” Lancaster snaps back, “What do you believe in mistah? Dyin’ cattle?” Cheadle and Heyhoe were employing the age old rainmaker’s trick of exploiting natural catastrophes and human misery. I have documented similar ploys here, here, here, here and here.   Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism | 81 Comments

Weekly Climate and Energy news Roundup

The Week That Was: 2014-04-12 (April 12, 2014) Brought to You by SEPP ( The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived. Niccolo Machiavelli [H/t Tim Ball] Number of the Week: $97,000 annual salary, entry level with undergraduate degree



By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)   Continue reading

Posted in Climate News Roundup | 23 Comments

Cosmic Rays, Sunspots, and Beryllium

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

In investigations of the past history of cosmic rays, the deposition rates (flux rates) of the beryllium isotope 10Be are often used as a proxy for the amount of cosmic rays. This is because 10Be is produced, inter alia, by cosmic rays in the atmosphere. Being a congenitally inquisitive type of fellow, I thought I’d look to see just how good a proxy 10Be might be for solar activity. Now most folks would likely do a search of the literature first, to find out what is currently known about the subject.

I don’t like doing that. Oh, the literature search is important, don’t get me wrong … but I postpone it as long as I possibly can. You see, I don’t want to be mesmerized by what is claimed to be already known. I want to look whatever it is with a fresh eye, what the Buddhists call “Beginner’s Mind”, unencumbered by decades of claims and counter-claims. In short, what I do when faced with a new field is to go find some data and analyze it. After I’ve found out what I can from the dataset, and only then, do I search the literature to find out what other folks might believe. Yes, it costs me sometimes … but usually it allows me to find things that other folks have overlooked.

In this case, I found a gem of a dataset. Here is the author’s summary:

Annually-resolved polar ice core 10Be records spanning the Neutron Monitor era

Abstract: Annually-resolved 10Be concentrations, stable water isotope ratios and accumulation rate data from the DSS site on Law Dome, East Antarctica (spanning 1936-2009) and the Das2 site, south-east Greenland (1936-2002).

The only thing better than data is recent data, because it is more likely to be accurate, and here we have seven decades of recent 10Be deposition rates (fluxes). So, without fanfare, here’s the data in question

10be flux rates greenland antarcticaFigure 1. 10Be flux rates from Law Dome in Antarctica and from Southeast Greenland. Bottom panel shows the annual average sunspot count.

So … what’s not to like about these records? Well … lots of things.

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Posted in Climate News, Cosmic rays | Tagged , , , , | 231 Comments