Numbers released today by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center show that not only has July been abnormally cool in the USA, but so has 2014 in general. For the last 30 days, there have been 574 record highest temperatures in the USA, and 1,726 record lowest. A ratio of 3 to 1, indicating that July was very cool. But, the year so far has also been cool.
So far for the USA year to date, the numbers of record lows outpace the highs two to one.
Guest essay by Paul Homewood
WUWT carried the story yesterday of the paper by Kodra & Ganguly, forecasting a wider range of temperature extremes in the future.
According to the Northeastern University press release, using climate models and reanalysis datasets, the authors found that
While global temperature is indeed increasing, so too is the variability in temperature extremes. For instance, while each year’s average hottest and coldest temperatures will likely rise, those averages will also tend to fall within a wider range of potential high and low temperate extremes than are currently being observed.
But is there any evidence that this has been happening? We can check what’s been happening in the US, by using the US Climate Extremes Index, produced by NOAA.
Jonathan Nott, James Cook University gave this presentation at the: Distinguished Lecture, 31 July, Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 11th Annual Meeting 2014, Sapporo, Japan.
Applying the Palaeo-tropical Cyclone Record
Palaeo-tropical cyclone records have to date been predominantly used to depict long-term trends as well as attempting to understand the causes of these trends. These records can also be useful for more immediate timescales such a reliably deriving the frequency and magnitude of events for present day planning purposes and also for assessing whether tropical cyclones are responding to global climate change. Continue reading
You know of the “Gore effect“, Wikiepedia describes it as “…an informal and satirical term which alleges a causal relationship between unseasonable cold weather phenomena and global warming activism”, so it was appropriate to apply to the situation where the Gore’s Climate Reality Project group tried a political ploys that looked stupid: “I’m Too Hot” trucks and offers of free ice cream to this week’s Environmental Protection Agency hearings on power-plant emissions…when it was 58 degrees and raining. Obviously, CNN’s Bill Weir doesn’t understand satire, much less how to be a professional journalist.
It’s safe to say CNN anchor Bill Weir is not a fan of climate change deniers.
On Thursday, the Twitter account for Fox Nation, a blog run by Fox News, tweeted a link to a post headlined, “Climate Doesn’t Cooperate With Al Gore’s Group’s Visit to Denver EPA Hearings.” Continue reading
Guest essay by Philip Dowd
Whenever the subject of renewable energy comes up, the conversation usually turns to solar. You hear statements like: “The world receives more energy from the sun in one hour than the global economy uses in one year.”[a] You then ask yourself; “Why can’t we just capture the energy from the sun and solve our energy problem that way?” Why not, indeed? Continue reading
Scientists largely removed from the consideration of science
Story submitted by Tom Barr
The U.K.’s Energy and Climate Change Committee [yesterday] endorsed the IPCC’s 2014 opinion that humans are the dominant cause of global warming.
In a 9 to 2 vote in a parallel universe the “Science was Settled”, yet again. But not by scientists, of course. Let’s look at the MPs who voted: Of the 9 in favour at least one had fiddled his expenses, just six held degrees and only one of them in what could be considered a scientific field, Human Biology. Continue reading
From the University of New Hampshire and the department of “CO2 controls everything with a single big red knob” (as stated in the article) comes this modeling inanity. Never mind that after the continental breakup the continent of Antarctica is now on the bottom of the world and gets dark for months and super cold, nooooo, it’s CO2 wot dun it. Climate models can’t even get the present right, so I have serious doubts they’ll get 34 million years ago, where we have far less data, right either.
Antarctic ice sheet is result of CO2 decrease, not continental breakup
DURHAM, N.H. – Climate modelers from the University of New Hampshire have shown that the most likely explanation for the initiation of Antarctic glaciation during a major climate shift 34 million years ago was decreased carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. The finding counters a 40-year-old theory suggesting massive rearrangements of Earth’s continents caused global cooling and the abrupt formation of the Antarctic ice sheet. It will provide scientists insight into the climate change implications of current rising global CO2 levels.
How a Club of Billionaires and Their Foundations Control the Environmental Movement and Obama’s EPA
A new report was released today by the Senate Environment and Public Works committee, and it is damning. All this time that climate skeptics are accused of being in the employ of “big oil” is nothing more than a projection of their own greed.
Over 7.9 BILLION in funding between these groups. Continue reading
Climate sensitivity distributions retained (and in some cases recast) by the IPCC from their assessment of the literature. Source: IPCC AR4
Nic Lewis has a new post at Climate Audit that deals with some assumptions that went into IPCC AR4’s use of a uniform prior for estimating climate sensitivity.
He has shown it to be faulty, to the point that would normally be cause for a retraction, but this is Climate Science, where being wrong is simply a shade of grey, not black, nor white.
He writes: Continue reading
From Northeastern University via Eurekalert, and the department of modeling for 10 million dollars, this seems to be all they could come up with. Nature has a way however, of taking the the best laid plans and rendering them moot. I don’t think they’ve noted ‘the pause’ yet. There’s no paper listed, nor data references, nothing, making it one of the worst press releases I’ve seen in awhile. The press release upstream at the University is hardly any better, citing the 97% consensus as if it has anything to do with extremes modeling, but at least they gave a link to the paper where Eurekalert didn’t.
Big data confirms climate extremes are here to stay
In a paper published online today in the journal Scientific Reports, published by Nature, Northeastern researchers Evan Kodra and Auroop Ganguly found that while global temperature is indeed increasing, so too is the variability in temperature extremes. For instance, while each year’s average hottest and coldest temperatures will likely rise, those averages will also tend to fall within a wider range of potential high and low temperate extremes than are currently being observed. This means that even as overall temperatures rise, we may still continue to experience extreme cold snaps, said Kodra.
Actually, two new records; one for high one for low. This from earlier:
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
132 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014
...RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TIED AT HUNTSVILLE...
A RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS TIED AT
HUNTSVILLE ON TUESDAY (7-29-14). THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 81 SET
Actually, they have the wording backwards, it is supposed to be record low maximum. Obviously 81 degrees is not that warm for July in Alabama. They’ll probably issue a correction later. The NWS predicted the new record low earlier with this graphic: Continue reading
While Steve McIntyre writes in detail about the sorts of gyrations that went on behind the scenes with Ove Hugh-Goldberg and John Cook, trying to prevent having to reveal Cooks’ rating data on his “97% consensus” paper by requests from Dr. Richard Tol, I stumbled across something so hateful, so juvenile, so bereft of moral character, that I couldn’t just let it be, and believe me I thought long and hard about whether to bring this up. I decided that certain forms of abuse just can’t go unchallenged.
It’s one thing to say things about me because I hold contrary ideas about global warming, that’s fair game. But I have to say that combining that criticism of my views on global warming with taunts over my hearing problem, is just so over-the-top and beyond decency, that it deserves a notice here. Continue reading
Time to sweep away the flawed, failed IPCC
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
HadCRUT4, always the tardiest of the five global-temperature datasets, has at last coughed up its monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly value for June. So here is a six-monthly update on changes in global temperature since 1950, the year when the IPCC says we might first have begun to affect the climate by increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.
The three established terrestrial temperature dataset that publish global monthly anomalies are GISS, HadCRUT4, and NCDC. Graphs for each are below.
Two words of the headline are a pun on Liebig’s law, something we covered in the context of another big lie: the “hockey stick”.
Steve McIntyre in a post last Saturday writes of Cook’s Fake Ethics Approval and has this hilarious exchange: Continue reading
Earth: A Climate Janus
From But Now You Know
. There is most certainly a pattern to climate change…but it’s not what you may think:
For at least
114 120 years, climate “scientists” have been claiming that the climate was going to kill us…but they have kept switching whether it was a coming ice age, or global warming.
(A timeline of claims follows, updated to 2014)
From Motif Investing (h/t to John Coleman)
Climate change has become more than a hot topic. With carbon dioxide levels at all-time highs and temperatures on the rise, concerns over global warming1 are increasingly leading to government action and policy changes. President Obama announced a ‘Climate Action Plan’ to cut 3 billion tons of carbon pollution by 2025, with an increased emphasis towards clean and efficient energy.2
NOTE: this post has an error, see update below. – Anthony
From a Wry Heat reprinted with permission of Jonathan DuHamel
A new post on The Hockey Schtick reviews a new paper “that finds only about 3.75% [15 ppm] of the CO2 in the lower atmosphere is man-made from the burning of fossil fuels, and thus, the vast remainder of the 400 ppm atmospheric CO2 is from land-use changes and natural sources such as ocean outgassing and plant respiration.”
This new work supports an old table from the Energy Information Administration which shows the same thing: only about 3% of atmospheric carbon dioxide is attributable to human sources. The numbers are from IPCC data. Continue reading
Over at Ben Garrison’s website, he writes about climate change and produces a grrraphic.
One thing I don’t like about true believers is they like to set up extreme negatives for those who disbelieve. Continue reading
Just because something is said to be an amplifier doesn’t mean it actually is doing so, plus other datasets don’t show an increase in water vapor. See below. Also, you gotta love the big burning ball of hot they included with the press release.
From the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science
Scientists suggest that water vapor will intensify future climate change projections
This is a color enhanced satellite image of upper tropospheric water vapor.
MIAMI – A new study from scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science and colleagues confirms rising levels of water vapor in the upper troposphere – a key amplifier of global warming – will intensify climate change impacts over the next decades. The new study is the first to show that increased water vapor concentrations in the atmosphere are a direct result of human activities.
“The study is the first to confirm that human activities have increased water vapor in the upper troposphere,” said Brian Soden, professor of atmospheric sciences at the UM Rosenstiel School and co-author of the study.
NASA scientist says that error has long since been corrected and the increase in sea ice in Antarctica is real.
As readers know, we announced this paper (which was under embargo): Claim: Antartica record high sea ice partially an artifact of an algorithm
Cato’s Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger said the whole thing was not an ice mountain, but a molehill: Of mountains, molehills, and noisy bumps in the sea-ice record writing:
“If the reason that the shift was undetected is because the data is so noisy, how important can it be?”
When it comes to attacking climate scientists, the alarmist Left has the market cornered
Guest opinion by Paul Driessen
Global warming alarmists constantly claim they are being “harassed” by climate chaos skeptics. The Climate Armageddon-istas proclaim they are victims, and the American Geophysical Union has even created a “Climate Science Legal Defense Fund,” to pay mounting legal bills that alarmist scientists like Michael Mann have incurred. But the real war on honest science and scientists is being waged by those who have garnered billions of taxpayer, foundation and corporate dollars for alarmist research, and thus have the most to lose when the public finally figures out what’s been going on. No wonder they are in a tizzy.
My article this week explores these issues – primarily by reviewing two cases where scientists really have been singled out, vilified and persecuted: Dr. Patrick Michaels from the University of Virginia, and Dr. David Legates at the University of Delaware.
Cost development for consumers from the EEG feed-in tariff (eeg-kwk.net)
The price of a stabilized green power grid is very steep, one could say it is like a “hockey stick”
Story submitted by Eric Worrall (h/t John Droz)
Coal and gas electricity companies are being paid up to 400x times the wholesale price of power, in return for helping to stabilize the German electricity grid.
According to Bloomberg, “Germany’s push toward renewable energy is causing so many drops and surges from wind and solar power that the government is paying more utilities than ever to help stabilize the country’s electricity grid.”
Guest essay by Ron Clutz
This is a study to see what the world’s best stations (a subset of all stations I selected as “world class” by criteria) are telling us about climate change over the long term. There are three principle findings.
To be included, a station needed at least 200 years of continuous records up to the present. Geographical location was not a criterion for selection, only the quality and length of the histories. 247 years is the average length of service in this dataset extracted from CRUTEM4. Continue reading
Guest essay by Joseph D’Aleo, CCM
Last month was the hottest June since record keeping began in 1880, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Monday. It marked the third month in a row that global temperature reached a record high. According to the NOAA data, April and May were also global record-breakers. The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was record high for the month at 16.22 degrees Celsius, or 0.72 degree Celsius above the 20th century average of 15.5 degrees Celsius,’ the NOAA said in its monthly climate report. “This surpasses the previous record, set in 2010, by 0.03 degrees Celsius.”.
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
I had the great pleasure of being invited to give a presentation at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness (DDP) conference this weekend in Knoxville, Tennessee. It was a very interesting and professionally run conference, and I offer my thanks to Dr. Jane Orient for her invitation, and to her team for the doing endless logistic work that such a conference entails in a most efficient and nearly invisible manner.
The conference featured a host of fascinating speakers, and the city itself was most pleasant and interesting. I came with a stack of Powerpoint slides and a presentation on climate science. But then I thought “Wait a minute, these are doctors, not climate scientists”, and I ended up putting them aside and speaking for an hour with the main theme being the ancient medical admonition, “First do no harm”. Continue reading
Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball
There is nothing permanent except change. – Heraclitus
If you want things to stay as they are, things will have to change. – Giuseppe di Lamedusa
Moving the Goalposts Again.
Climate changes significantly all the time. Those who point this out are considered more dangerous than global warming skeptics. Perversely and incorrectly, they are called climate change deniers, with its holocaust connotations. However, even a brief examination of the historic record shows how much climate changes naturally. This information is reaching the public and reducing people’s fear and is encouraging questions. Continue reading
Yesterday, in Climactic headline shifts the hype factor between two headlines on crop production and climate was pointed out, noting that there was just a small increase in risk. Today we have another similar press release, claiming that climate change (plus ozone air pollution) will cause crop production to slow down. So far, there is no indication of such a thing happening, even though Paul Ehrlich claimed for years that massive famines would happen as food production slowed.
From the Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Study: Climate change and air pollution will combine to curb food supplies
Ozone and higher temperatures can combine to reduce crop yields, but effects will vary by region Continue reading
An example of predictions gone wrong
That headline is attributed
to physicist Niels Bohr, but a later more popular version is attributed to Yogi Berra
But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence is murky.
That said, whether you are making climate predictions, or predictions about what kind of car and highway you’ll be driving in 20 years, predictions about the future are indeed difficult. I stumbled on this film from 1956 today by accident, and I just had to laugh at how far off the mark it was. It made me think of climate science and it’s failed predictions we see in the graph in the upper right. Continue reading
Bruce Hall alerts me to this headline from Eurkekalert which reads:
But the real headline behind the headline is this one, at the actual source: Continue reading
Guest post by Alec Rawls (see part 1)
Ex-physics teacher Christopher Keating, who strongly believes that human activity is causing dangerous global warming, is offering $30,000 to anyone who can prove that “claims of man-made climate change” are not supported by the science. What claims? He gives as an example the IPCC’s central assertion that: “It is extremely likely (95-100%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Easy money (if he would actually give it, but that is secondary). There are several grounds, already laid out by a variety of skeptics, why this claim of extreme scientific certainty is prima facie unscientific. Continue reading
Over at Scientific American, a place that isn’t hardly Scientific, nor American anymore (its owned by Germans IIRC) there’s a big row over Cook’s shoddy “97% consensus” paper in comments, mainly due to some pertinent ones asking some tough questions being deleted wholesale. SciAm is now citing policy as the reason.
What’s funny, contrary to SciAm policy (for vulgarities) is that the F-word is allowed in the article itself, used by Dan Kahan to describe a bumper sticker about that imagined “97% consensus”.
People send me stuff. Yesterday I got a note suggesting I have a look at what NOAA/NCDC’s “climate at a glance” was showing for trends in the 21st century so far.
I decided to take a look. Continue reading
There may still be a chance for an El Niño during the 2014/15 ENSO season. A new “pocket” of warm subsurface water has formed in the western equatorial Pacific. See the note in the page from the most-recent NOAA Weekly ENSO Update to the right. (Please click on illustration for full-sized image.) In their update, NOAA also makes note of that anomaly during their discussion of the Hovmoller on their page 15. That subsurface temperature anomaly appears to have been caused by the recirculation of warm water from the earlier downwelling (warm) Kevin wave, not by another westerly wind burst. Come along, I’ll show you. Continue reading
What Slow Fourier Transforms can tell us.
Guest essay by Stan Robertson, Ph.D., P.E.
On May 3, 2014, an article on WUWT by Willis Eschenbach entitled, The Slow Fourier Transform (SFT) was posted. As he noted, the amplitude of the Slow Fourier Transform components are in the same units as the fitted data, intervals of arbitrary length and irregular data can be used and periodicities rather than frequencies are automatically extracted. In addition to rediscovering a very useful mathematical tool, Willis went on to show that there were apparently no variations of temperature associated with solar cycle variations for several long term temperature records. Now my normal inclination would be to say that if Willis didn’t find any there probably aren’t many to be found. But, on the other hand, as I showed in an October 10, 2013 WUWT article entitled The Sun Does It: Now Go Figure Out How!, it does not take much of a temperature variation to represent a very significant solar contribution to ocean surface temperatures and heat content.