Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach It has been pointed out that while many of the global climate models (GCMs) are not all that good at forecasting future climate, they all…
Category: Climate Models
Escape from model land
Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on October 29, 2019 by curryja by Judith Curry “Letting go of the phantastic mathematical objects and achievables of model- land can…
Why Roy Spencer’s Criticism is Wrong
12 October 2019 Pat Frank A bit over a month ago, I posted an essay on WUWT here about my paper assessing the reliability of GCM global air temperature projections…
CMIP6 models overshoot: Charney sensitivity is not 4.1 K but < 1.4 K
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley Recently the indefatigable Dr Willie Soon, who reads everything, sent me a link to the projections of equilibrium global warming in response to doubled CO2.…
How Many Times do Useless Climate Models have to be Killed before they Die?
“A Climate Modeller Spills the Beans” was posted by Pat September 25, 2019 at 9:02 am Guest post by Mike Jonas, Quadrant Online has just published a remarkable article –…
Do Models Run Hot Or Not? A Process Control View
Guest post by Kevin Kilty Introduction This short essay was prompted by a recent article regarding improvements to uncertainty in a global mean temperature estimate.[1] However, much bandwidth has been…
Emulation, ±4 W/m² Long Wave Cloud Forcing Error, and Meaning
Guest post by Pat Frank My September 7 post describing the recent paper published in Frontiers in Earth Science on GCM physical error analysis attracted a lot of attention, consisting…
How error propagation works with differential equations (and GCMs)
guest post by Nick Stokes There has been a lot of discussion lately of error propagation in climate models, eg here and here. I have spent much of my professional…
A Stove Top Analogy to Climate Models
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog September 13th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Have you ever wondered, “How can we predict global average temperature change when we don’t…
Additional Comments on the Frank (2019) “Propagation of Error” Paper
From Dr Roy Spencer’s Blog September 12th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. NOTE: This post has undergone a few revisions as I try to be more precise in…
Critique of “Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Predictions”
From Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog September 11th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. I’ve been asked for my opinion by several people about this new published paper by Stanford…
Ice sheets impact core elements of the Earth’s carbon cycle
University of Bristol The Earth’s carbon cycle is crucial in controlling the greenhouse gas content of our atmosphere, and ultimately our climate. Ice sheets which cover about 10 percent of…
Icebergs delay Southern Hemisphere future warming
Institute for Basic Science New research, published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, has found that Antarctic icebergs can weaken and delay the effect of Global Warming in the…
Persistent plume
Analysis of massive 2017 cloud of wildfire smoke will help calibrate climate models, including modeling of nuclear winter, geoengineering University of Colorado at Boulder Thunderstorms generated by a group of…
New Paper–NO EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE
I didn’t vet this before posting and have no idea as to its real strengths or weaknesses. Have at it.~ctm From Arvix J. KAUPPINEN AND P. MALMI Abstract. In this…
Return to Earth
Guest post by Philip Mulholland and Stephen Wilde “No government has the right to decide on the truth of scientific principles, nor to prescribe in any way the character of…
Part of the Pacific Ocean is not warming as expected, but why?
From Phy.org June 25, 2019 by Kevin Krajick, Columbia University The tropical Pacific Ocean (Australia and South America in gray, left and right). Top map shows what climate models say…
Columbia researchers provide new evidence on the reliability of climate modeling
Observational data of equatorial circulation pattern confirms that the pattern is weakening, a development with important consequences for future rainfall in the subtropics Columbia University School of Engineering and Applied…
MODTRAN: ITS QUIRKS AND USES.
Guest post by KEVIN KILTY An Atmospheric Transmission Model Introduction This post is not one I planned to do. It has grown from work I was doing with MODTRAN (moderate…
Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes
From Nature Communications. Abstract Most Earth system models agree that land will continue to store carbon due to the physiological effects of rising CO2 concentration and climatic changes favoring plant…
Feedback is not the big enchilada
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley I am most grateful to Mr Stokes for his interesting recent posting in which he explains what he sees as the difference between official climatology’s…
Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (May ’19: +0.32°C) A Simple “No Greenhouse Effect” Model of Day/Night Temperatures at Different Latitudes
Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog June 7th, 2019 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. Abstract: A simple time-dependent model of Earth surface temperatures over the 24 hr day/night cycle…
Demystifying feedback.
Guest post by Nick Stokes, People outside climate science seem drawn to feedback analogies for climate behaviour. Climate scientists sometimes make use of them too, although they are not part…
Cycles of Rapid Climate Warming
By Jim Steele Published in the Pacifca Tribune May 28, 2019 What’s Natural Cycles of Rapid Climate Warming The globally averaged temperature rose 1.5°F from 1880 to today. Various narratives…
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