From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert
More hurricane surges in the future
By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.
Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.
New model for predicting cyclones
“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.
The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?
Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.
10 times as many ‘Katrinas’
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.
For more information please contact:
Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
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I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:
Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg
…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:
The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.
Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.
I believe this photo is from the movie, The Day After Tomorrow, pretty funny stuff of doom and gloom, abrupt climate change. South Park did a spoof on this movie, Two days before the day after tomorrow FYI
The surge from Katrina devastated the Mississippi coast. However, New Orleans got all of the news coverage.
All temperatures combined into one model. Huuu, that sounds scaring. How does the poles influences the hurricanes in the tropics?
Maybe he should concider that a tenfold increase would also transport a lot of heat up in the atmosphere and in that way cool the ocean.
There is a good reason why hurricanes are not produced constantly.
Nice photoshopping. I still haven’t found the hidden polar bear.
ExaggerGate! (Someone had to say it)
Sandy was minuscule compared to the storm surge from the 1886 Gulf of Mexico storm that destroyed Indianola Beach, a city of 15,000 (almost all of whom died), flooded areas as far as 30 miles inland and rewrote the map of Copano Bay, in Texas.
Obviously, more ignorant scaremongering. The sad part is that there will be plenty of uninformed, gullible folk who will think the picture is real and take it as gospel, though there’s a little problem, since such a wave has never happened, therefore there isn’t one to take a picture of (but facts like that don’t bother the alarmies)..
From those abstracts above it sounds an awful lot like less storms means a warmer climate and more storms means a cooler climate, at least for century-scale intervals. Can’t absolutely know the cause and effect, but storms generally cause more heat transfer to high altitudes.
It could be worse, the sea could have been portrayed as highly acidic and the statue would quickly disolve.
Was he study paid for by a major insurance carrier, looking to raise rates again? I really liked the beach wave breaking wash in the foreground? out in the middle of the harbor?
Definitely not photo shop job by a surfer or a hydraulic engineer.
Steve C says:
March 18, 2013 at 4:18 pm
Nice photo shopping. I still haven’t found the hidden polar bear .
Left side of statue , third fold up , can just bearly make out the head !
I think it is from the (inadvertantly funny) movie “The Day After Tommorrow”.
A movie based on the Art Bell? Book on the coming superstorm?
The story line is that the Global Warming triggers the next ice age by creating 3 mega-storms that merge into one massive system. The cold air in the upper atmosphere plunges down to earth flash freezing everything xcept for the hero, the hero’s kids (who survive by burning the books in the library of Congress) and of course the Artic Wolves from the zoo…
See some of the pics here. Large wave swamping Statue. Movie was feom 2004
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm3599862784/tt0319262?ref_=tt_pv_md_2
Day After Tomorrow. 2004
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm3599862784/tt0319262?ref_=tt_pv_md_2
Aslak Grinsted, Refurbished Hockey Schtick Salesman.
paddylol says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:46 pm
My understanding is that tropical and subtropical cyclonic storms decrease in number and intensity as climate warms and that there is a plethora of data and reserch supporting my view. What sort of tricks (assumptions) did the modeler employ to overcome these data and research?
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They said it was new research so I ass u me they somehow found somewhere in our very cold past something which proves there was a period that was somewhat warmer than today.
Imagine that.
I wonder which period? Did they say?
I wonder how Mikey missed it?
cn
Plot Summary.
The Day After Tomorrow (2004) More at IMDbPro »
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As Paleoclimatologist named Jack Hall is in Antartica, he discovers that a huge ice sheet has sheared off. But what he does not know is that this event will trigger a massive climate shift that will affect the world population. Meanwhile, his son Sam is with friends in New York to attend an event. There they discover that it has been raining non-stop for the past 3 weeks, and after a series of weather-related disasters begin to occur over the world, everybody realizes the world is entering a new Ice Age and the world population begins trying to evacuate to the warmer climates of the south. Jack makes a daring attempt to rescue his son and his friends who are stuck in New York and who have managed to survive not only a massive wave but also freezing cold temperatures that could possibly kill them. Written by John Wiggins
A look at what the world would look like if the greenhouse effect and global warming continued. At the center of the story is a paleoclimatologist (a scientist who studies the ways weather patterns changed in the past), Professor Jack Hall, who tries to save the world from the effects of global warming while also trying to get to his son, Sam, who was in New York City as part of a scholastic competition, when the city was overwhelmed by the chilling beginnings of the new Ice Age. In addition to all of the other challenges Dr. Hall faces, he’s also going against the flow as humanity races south to warmer climes, and he’s nearly the only one going north. Written by austin4577@aol.com
When global warming causes world wide disasters and leads to an ice age, a climatologist named Jack Hall tries to rescue his son Sam who is trapped in New York. Jack must go from Washington D.C. to New York, but on the way some things happen. Can Jack rescue his son? Written by mexiryan@yahoo.com
A paleoclimatologist, Professor Jack Hall, discovers that due to global warming, the polar ice caps are melting, which is lowering ocean temperatures. This triggers a massive climate shift which causes many natural disasters and eventually a new ice age. Too late everyone realizes this, and as they try to evacuate to the warmer south, for half of the northern USA, and Canada, it’s already too cold to go outside. Meanwhile, Jack’s son, Sam, is in Manhattan on a trip with some friends. Jack heads north to try and rescue his son, but the cold is a powerful adversary. Written by Anonymous
See here also. Quote
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/day-tomorrow-stills-masquerade-as-384125
Disaster Movie Stills Masquerade as Hurricane Sandy on Social Media
12:36 PM PDT 10/29/2012 by Seth Abramovitch
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145
Photos of 50-foot waves pounding Lady Liberty are actually shots from “The Day After Tomorrow.”
The famous landmarks of New York City have always proven irresistible targets to disaster filmmakers, but now that a true disaster is about to befall the region — in the form of historic Hurricane Sandy — lines between fact and fiction are blurring.
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Photos of the Statue of Liberty withstanding the crashing force of 50-foot waves have begun to circulate throughout Instagram, Twitter, Facebook and other popular social media, leading the easily duped to post and re-post the disturbing images.
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In one widely circulated image, the NY1 local news logo has been superimposed in the lower left corner, alongside a chyron readings “LIVE CAM 12:12 PM,” making it seem as if the images are being broadcast on a reputable news channel.
It’s a terrifying image — but it’s also a computer-generated one, plucked from The Day After Tomorrow, the 2004 blockbuster thriller from disaster maestro Roland Emmerich about the catastrophic effects of global warming on the planet.
Weather-watchers searching out authentic images of Sandy’s force won’t have much longer to wait, however. Photographed stretches of a flooded Atlantic City, N.J., have already given us a glimpse of the destruction to come: the city’s director of emergency management calls it the worst storm the city has ever seen.
A camera positioned atop the famous monument offers a Liberty-eye’s-view of the storm’s effects on the shores of Ellis Island. So far, she’s wet, but no giant waves are in sight.
STORY: Jimmy Kimmel Cancels Monday Brooklyn Show Due to Hurricane Sandy
The storm is expected to make landfall on Monday night, and currently has maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, up 15 mph since last night. The winds extend 175 miles from its center, making it as broad a hurricane as to ever hit the country. Surges as high as 11 feet will hit cities from Delaware to Connecticut.
The storm has resulted in the cancellation of dozens of theater performances and TV show tapings in New York City, including the first night of Jimmy Kimmel’s much-hyped return to Brooklyn.
Twitter: @SethAbramovitch
Email: seth.abramovitch@thr.com
Interesting. Perhaps they got fooled by fake Hurricane Sandy photos?
http://urbanlegends.about.com/od/naturalwonders/ss/Fake-Hurricane-Sandy-Photos_13.htm
Yesterday a geoscientist explained to me that storm surge is caused by low air pressure making the sea rise. Visibly it is more like an extreme high tide. Waves are an optional extra. Waves are a function of water depth and wind speed, I think. The photo is ridiculous and irrelevant.
Frank K. says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:55 pm
This is yet another example of a new phenomenon in science. With our last U.S. election, we witnessed the rise of the “low information voter”. With modern Climate Science ™, we now are witnessing the rise of the “low information scientist”…
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I was thinking that might be a “chicken / egg” type question but then I thought of something else coming from a chicken which might be a better comparison.
cn
[Butt what else is round and comes out of the rear orifice of a chicken? Mod]
Well, they’re unable to wring their hands over the old bunk, so now it’s time to manufacture something new to get everyone worked up over.
Anyway, Anthony, don’t get too excited about this so-called Photoshop killer. It seems to yield some curious results. I pointed it at two pictures of a CGI Jeep I’ve been working on. The first returned a result indicating, “Photoshopped: contrast adjusted.” The second noted “No manipulation detected.” In fact, both images came straight out of my renderer on my Linux box without ever having come near Photoshop.
Yeah, it’s not like anyone needed image analysis to prove that picture of the Statue of Liberty getting clobbered was a fake, but see if you can find something more reliable before you find a picture that does.
Google image search result:
%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.ibtimes.co.uk%252Farticles%252F447492%252F20130318%252Fhurricane-katrina-sandy-increase-tenfold-global-warming.htm%3B950%3B904
[Isn’t there any longer internet link you could have found? 8<) Mod]
Looks like it was used Oct 31, 2012 by CNN for Hurricane Sandy
. http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=BHavjEFJq8pAeM&tbnid=g3BxaDjGprltZM:&ved=0CAQQjB0&url=http%3A%2F%2Famericanpolitics411.com%2Farticle%2Fcnn-sandys-impact-state-by-state%2F&ei=cqtHUaeCKsX22QW7-4HYDg&bvm=bv.43828540,d.aWM&psig=AFQjCNH_JNgzWusnIcq8PuAUlBDKLfk8tw&ust=1363737249580548