Model predicts more storm surge, but they use what appears to be a fake photo in the press release:

From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert

More hurricane surges in the future

The extreme storm surge from Superstorm Sandy in the autumn 2012 flooded large sections of New York and other coastal cities in the region. New research shows that such hurricane surges will become more frequent in a warmer climate. Credit: Gordon Tarpley.

By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.

Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.

New model for predicting cyclones

“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute

He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.

The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?

Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.

10 times as many ‘Katrinas’ 

“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.

“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.

###

For more information please contact:

Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/

============================================================

I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:

Liberty

Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg

…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:

Liberty_storm_PSK_Capture

The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.

Exif_SOL_Capture

Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.

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Mark Bofill

Sort of a cool pic though, even if it is fake.
Just sayin.

SadButMadLad

It’s a fake.
See this site for the source of the waves. http://www.tumblr.com/tagged/giant%20wave

Nitetrain

Maybe they use the same people who photoshop for Iran.
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/10/in-an-iranian-image-a-missile-too-many/

Boston12GS

Just to provide some scale, for folks who may never have had the opportunity to physically visit Liberty Island: The wave appears to reach at least as high as the top of the pedestal. That’s roughly 50m above the “normal” water level.
The highest wave recorded in New York Harbor occurred during the recent Hurricane Sandy, and was about 10 meters in height.

sadbutmadlad

The picture is a fake. A photo of just the wave is shown here. It’s dated May 28, 2011 – http://kitesurfbikerambling.wordpress.com/2011/05/28/some-photos-defy-belief/

Latitude

what the sam hell is an extreme storm surge?…………
Looks like regular old storm surges will remain the same….but extreme storm surges will increase
Must be like NOAA…..redefine what extreme is….and naming every two clouds that get within sight of each other

Lance Wallace

What does “Photoshop tag found” mean? Sounds to me as though they found evidence it was photoshopped, But the site provides no readme or other explanation.

Alarmists must use “alarming” pictures…. Faked temp reconstructions must have faked pictures to go along with them… 😉
Wasn’t Mann’s hockey stick accompanied by the faked polar bear on the ice floe or was that a different article?

Ben

That image is from one of the apocalypse moves I cant remember which one Deep Impact or 2012 or Armageddon or something but I know I have seen that before. Could have been on e of the History/Discover channel “specials” about mega tsunami or an impact or “super” volcano events.

What causes the frequency and magnitude of storms on Venus, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter, Uranus and Neptune if 0.04% of CO2 causes an increase in the frequency and magnitude of storms here on Earth?
When the media use this style of Armageddon imagery to make their point it goes to show how weak their main argument was to begin with.

Latitude

sadbutmadlad says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
==============
they did a really bad job of smudging out the body boarders too…..should have left them in…..that would have been hysterical

MarkW

They use models to predict climate, then they use the output of those models to predict storm strength, then they use the output of those models to predict storm surge.
Criminey, it really is models all the way down.

sadbutmadlad says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
The picture is a fake. A photo of just the wave is shown here. It’s dated May 28, 2011 – http://kitesurfbikerambling.wordpress.com/2011/05/28/some-photos-defy-belief/
Nice! FAKE!!!!

MarkW

Boston12GS says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:16 pm

Looks to me like the wave tops are a good 10 to 20 meters above the top of the pedastal.

SCheesman

Come one, “it appears fake”? Was there any doubt? I think that’s the photographic equivalent of hyperbole. Yes, I agree, with the caption supplied its completely ridiculous and they deserve to be pilloried. Weren’t there enough actual pictures of damage from Sandy?

Lance Wallace

This site investigates the pskiller site, and is not especially fond of it. (Even mentions Wattsupwiththat in connection with an earlier image.)
http://www.hackerfactor.com/blog/index.php?/archives/458-Photoshop-Manipulations.html

Louis Hooffstetter

The storm surge of every hurricane / tropical cyclone / typhoon is extreme. The fact that the frequency of these storms has declined as the planet warmed completely negates the results of this model.
I call bullshit!

mkelly

“By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer.”
So the climate was warmer in the past. If it was warmer in the past without our CO2 input then… Oh what the hell all of you know the questions.

MikeP

Reminds me of the Discovery channel bit on mega-tsunamis. If the shoulder of one of the volcanoes in the Canary islands (I’ve forgotten which one) were to slide catastrophically into the ocean, you might get something like this. Such slides have been documented in the Hawaiian Island chain, but from what I’ve read, the geology in the Canaries is only conducive to a more gradual slide with much more muted consequences.

wwschmidt

a wave that goes halfway up the Statue of Liberty, and it *might* be photoshopped? ROFL!
That’s like showing a wave that’s washing cars off the Golden Gate Bridge.
It’s like that movie that had a giant octopus picking people out of the streets of SF and eating them. Well, okay, it’s not as cool as that was.

Mumbles McGuirk

Latitude says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:17 pm
what the sam hell is an extreme storm surge?…………
Looks like regular old storm surges will remain the same….but extreme storm surges will increase
Must be like NOAA…..redefine what extreme is….and naming every two clouds that get within sight of each other
————————————————————————————————————————
Apparently, it becomes extreme if you put your hat on backward, yell a lot, and wear ‘shades’

“Aaaaah … basmati”
As to the study, they took two bad models then averaged them together. Of course, storm surge is so much more than storm strength. It is also bathymetry and storm speed and direction. But why bother with details when you can put everything in a blender and make margaritas.

Luther Wu

Appears to be photoshopped?
Right.

Old Grey Badger

I just love that “Katrina’s per decade” Y-Axis. I don’t think anyone in 1975 was saying “Holy crap, I just went through 1/3 of a Katrina!”
That photo looks kind of like a scene from “Deep Impact”.

Gee, I thought the “Katrinas per decade” was a clever new unit of alarm-i-ness
Perhaps volcanic aerosols will now be quantified in “micro-Krakatoas per cubic meter”
[heh-heh]

Billy Liar

This paper is for April 1, right?
Let’s consider the Atlantic basin. Let’s say that in an average year there are 10 named storms (1950-2000 ave = 9.6). To get a 10-fold increase in Katrina’s there would have to be an average of 100 named storms in a season, or in a peak season, 280 named storms (record high activity to date = 28). That is more than one named storm would have to form every other day during the season, on average, or nearly two every day in a record season.
It ain’t gonna happen. Ever.
Good April Fools. Ha ha.

Blind Freddy

I have only been to New York once. Isn’t this wave traveling from the wrong direction if it was a storm surge. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the ocean towards the front of the statue? This wave is traveling from the river or landward side of the statue.

AnonyMoose

Wave posted on May 25, 2011:
http://www.surferdad.co.uk/category/surf-photos/page/5
“A Cornish wedge – Photo by Jacob Cockle”
I wonder if he was paid for this photo, and for someone else to be given credit.

paddylol

My understanding is that tropical and subtropical cyclonic storms decrease in number and intensity as climate warms and that there is a plethora of data and reserch supporting my view. What sort of tricks (assumptions) did the modeler employ to overcome these data and research?
Also, I recall that Sandy’s wind speed at land fall was less than hurricane force. Katrina’s damage resulted in large part from faulty engineering and construction of the flood control system and its failure at New Orleans and the surrounding Mississippi Delta area.
I hope that Dr Maue, Joe Bastardi and others with similar qualifications and experience will comment on these subjects.

dogald

The photo cred is to Gordon Tarpley. You can google him and find he does a lot of photo shop type work.

ZootCadillac

The original picture is of a wave. there are two surfers in it near the bottom. Quite an exceptional shot and it’s huge. Difficult to pin down the photographer as it appears on hundreds of websites. There is some ambiguity on a number of photography sites that imply the image is by the site host but it can’t be all of them. It’s certainly not taken by the guy given credit so I can only assume that he’s responsible for the photoshop composite.
That’s the sort of work I used to do a lot and I have to say it’s a pretty poor job when you look at it closely. Either very rushed or someone is unfamiliar with the tools. The clone work to remove the surfers from the picture is particularly shoddy.

Frank K.

This is yet another example of a new phenomenon in science. With our last U.S. election, we witnessed the rise of the “low information voter”. With modern Climate Science ™, we now are witnessing the rise of the “low information scientist”…

The caption makes it sound real: “The extreme storm surge” emphasis on THE. That should put them into trouble (hot water, maybe?). Good looking pic, though. Sadbutmadlad pointed out the wave on it’s own (comment at 1:17), with a link – well done to find it, by the way. 🙂 I notice they took the surfers out.
Wish it was in colour. It looks great with the Statue of Liberty in there. 🙂

ZootCadillac

AnonyMoose has nailed it. original photo of the surf is by Jacob Cockle. The photo of liberty would be impossible to track down. Could be any of a million generic shots out there. I guess it will be one of the first few appearing in a google image search because photoshoppers are lazy. First image they find that suits there needs gets used. Always without permission. I know, I’ve done it a lot and had it done to me. It’s never an issue unless used for commercial purposes.

ZootCadillac

I expect that the person doing the press release was also quite lazy and just grabbed it from this article.
http://reveal.abchome.com/out-of-the-darkness-and-into-the-light-ways-to-support-after-hurricane-sandy/

JPS

that graph is hilarious- i see he has approximately one (1) katrina storm for the decade including 2005. at least he got that right.

The Surfer Dad website above appears to be the originator of the wave image with the bodyboarders in it. I sent him a tweet, hope he responds…

Warren in Minnesota

The photo credit of Gordon Tarpley appears to me to be incorrect.

Snotrocket

Apparently, we have to credit one, Gordon Tarpley for the pic. According to http://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/53975.php?from=234915 And he can be found at http://www.gordontarpley.com/

pokerguy

“Superstorm Sandy”…what a crock. Got to hand it to these guys, they’ve successfully made global warming all about extreme weather in the absence of any actual warming. Neat trick.

Matt

It could be a screen cap from one of the disaster movies from the last decade or so, maybe 2012?

steven

HAHA! The wave is coming from New Jersey!

sadbutmadlad

AnonyMoose, you got the correct source. I was only doing a quick images.google.com search. I was also rushing a bit to get in quickly. Jacob Cockle is the real photographer and does not deserve to have his work destroyed with abysmal photoshopping.
Anthony, a tip – use http://images.google.com when searching for images or the source of a photo.

Bill Illis

The models have yet to rule out a Godzilla vs King Kong rematch on top of the Statue of Liberty so that is something to watch out for.

Snotrocket

The photo-shop article said to contact Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
So I did. And told them what I thought of their crap.

heysuess

The Statue of Liberty is in New Orleans? WHO KNEW!!

Mark Bofill

Bill Illis says:
March 18, 2013 at 2:09 pm
The models have yet to rule out a Godzilla vs King Kong rematch on top of the Statue of Liberty so that is something to watch out for.
——
This is an excellent point Bill. And while no specific monster attack or monster battle can be attributed, it’s the sort of thing we’d expect to see more often in a warming world.

knr

‘The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future.’ they learn one thing , make your BS claims for along way ahead that way you will be dead by the time others get to call them out for the BS they area .

H.R.

From the article:
“Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows.”
=======================================================
I thought the major portion of the Katrina flooding damage was lack of maintenance to the barriers and pump failures. As I understood it, the surge was more about where it hit rather than the size of the surge and was coupled with the rain filling an impoundment that was allowed to deteriorate.
Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. Those who can’t remember what happened 8 years ago just make it up as they go.
P.S. Forget Jaws, Waimea, Pipeline. Surf’s up in New York! Just watch out for the big thingie out there in the middle on the way in.

Jimbo

I don’t know about the USA but damn those French storms. Brrrr!

Abstract
Magnitude and frequency of extra-tropical North Atlantic cyclones: A chronology from cliff-top storm deposits
Overwash deposits do not show any evidence of intense storm landfalls in the region for several hundred years prior to the late 17th century A.D. The apparent increase in intense storms around 250 years ago occurs during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, a time of lower continental surface temperatures.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018210006747

Jimbo

It’s all down to that blasted, toxic trace gas co2.

Abstract
Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v447/n7143/abs/nature05834.html