From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert
More hurricane surges in the future
By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.
Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.
New model for predicting cyclones
“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.
The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?
Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.
10 times as many ‘Katrinas’
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.
For more information please contact:
Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
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I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:
Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg
…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:
The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.
Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.
Sun heats seas, seas heats air, air dosen’t heat seas nor CO2. There is always warmest water in the surface in seas which sun heats. Greenhouse effect in open therodynamic system is biggest joke i have ever heard, because in that system gases acts like coolers, not warmers. More heat from the sun the more atmosphere cools down and transfer energy to upper atmosphere and space. Atmosphere is an incredible regulator, many engineers are envy of that incredible regulating system in such very complicated system.
Since the end of the Little Ice Age in the ~mid 19th century the world has been warming. What has been one of the effects? It’s worse than we thought.
We are doomed.
Definitely a photo shop picture. i made a quick comparison of this photo to some photos i had of the Statue of Liberty and some pictures I found from almost the same angle, no way for that immense wave break to be where it is shown. Also there are no trees grown up around the statue in the B&W photo, which there are currently. Makes me think that B&W photo is quite old. I can email you the comparison photo, i don’t think i can post it in this reply.
Hey – give em a break – they’re just trying to make a point.
After all, it’s okay to exaggerate: “… I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous [global warming] is…”
-algore
grist.com interview, 09 May 2006
Researchers from Copenhagen, China, England – yeah that makes sense /sarc
“previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer”. “But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future?” Huh?
Guys – storm surges occur – yes. But the magnitude is not a simple function of temperature.
Doesn’t look like your models factor in coastal topography, or adjust for statistical probability of surges coinciding with high tides?
Reminds me of an old “Hancock’s half hour” sketch where the left-footed player gets put on the right wing.
“New research shows that such hurricane surges will become more frequent in a warmer climate”…..but it’s not a warmer climate! What are these muppets on about?
Pretty sure this is the lady without her storm surge http://www.beckermanphoto.com/page/3?s=keywords. Scroll down almost to the bottom. Maybe the folks at Beckerman Photo would like a little credit. Says it’s infrared which accounts for the nice grainy quality
@Jimbo,
“The apparent increase of the superstorm activity during the latter half of the Little Ice Age was probably due to the thermal gradient increase leading to enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity over a large Central Atlantic/European domain and leading to a modification of the occurrence of extreme wind events along the French Mediterranean coast. A complete understanding of the relationship between climate fluctuations, storm activity, and the coastal response will be crucial to predicting the impacts of future climate change.”
Oh no… although these authors won’t ever say or write it… Leroux figured this a while ago!
They seem to think it’s worth $70
The future is looking catastrophic. It’s worse than we thought. Head for the hills.
The photo of the statue is the wiki creative commons picture here
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d3/Statue_of_Liberty,_NY.jpg
the trees have been cropped from the image but i just overlayed it in photoshop and looking closely he’s forgotten to clone out the people on the upper balcony. It’s a perfect fit.
Good find Anthony and good call on the faked photo. Total fake.
A good way to track down a photo is to use tineye.com. VERY handy site.
Paste a photo URL into the search window at Tin Eye. I did this with the wave/SOL image above and Tin Eye was still able to find many (many) copies of the “original” wave photo, sans SOL.
I sent the author an email questioning the use of the photo. Why not? ☺
Willis has taught us all to ask more questions.
CAS
On the frozen plains of western Canada where spring is not even on the radar
Niels Bohr Institute
University of Copenhagen
What a hideous degradation of a great scientist’s name!!
These extreme Alarmists are shameless and contemptible.
” Lance Wallace says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:18 pm
What does “Photoshop tag found” mean? Sounds to me as though they found evidence it was photoshopped, But the site provides no readme or other explanation.”
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When a picture is opened in photoshop and then saved photoshop adds tag information regarding photoshop. So if an image file is checked it will generally tell you if its been through at least one round of photoshop. I say generally because there are ways to strip the photoshop tag back out of a file.
But if you find the photoshop tag in photoshop someone has done something to it. I generally just crop or do something similar but others can make it sing and dance much like the referenced image where a photo of a big surfer wave was combined with the statue of liberty.
This paper is based on more Nintendo Calamatology Models. Sh!t in, sh!t out. Why can’t these mother fvkers get out into the real world and observe? I get the impression they are just too lazy and would rather get paid for playing computer games. I despise these climate criminals. They are costing us a lot of money and time. People are suffering because of their lies.
According to his graph, the 1950’s should be about 0.5 Katrina’s / decade
Carol 1954 cat 3
Edna 1954 cat 3
Hazel 1954 Cat 4
Connie 1955 Cat 3
Audrey 1957 cat 4
Donna 1960 Cat 4
Katrina 2005 Cat 3
There is something extreme here, but I don’t think it has anything to do with Hurricanes.
The web cam on the Statue of Liberty still has not been
turned on again. I used to check the view of Manhattan
but now they loop some old footage. They’ll probably
blame it on the sequester.
It’s not unlike the mega tidal wave in The Poseidon Adventure that capsized the huge ocean liner. It was a cresting breaking wave in the middle of the ocean. Doesn’t happen that way. Why are they so quick to put these obvious bullshit scary photos out? Find the reason in the quotes:
“We are on the verge of a global transformation. All we need is the right major crisis…” -David Rockefeller, Wealthy Leftist
“A massive campaign must be launched to de-develop the United States… [we] must design a stable, low-consumption economy in which there is a much more equitable distribution of wealth.” -John Holdren, Obama’s Science Czar
“The only way to get our society to truly change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe.” -Daniel Botkin, ex Chair of Environmental Studies, UCSB
“It doesn’t matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true.” -Paul Watson, Greenpeace
“We’ve got to ride the global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing …” -leftist Senator Tim Wirth, 1993
“We have to offer up scary scenarios… each of us has to decide the right balance between being effective [lying] and being honest [ineffective].” -Stephen Schneider, lead ipcc author, 1989
“Only sensational exaggeration makes the kind of story that will get politicians’ attention.” -Monika Kopacz, Atmospheric Scientist
“Unless we announce disasters no one will listen.” -Sir John Houghton, first chairman of IPCC
“I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of … how dangerous it is.” -Al Gore
“We routinely wrote scare stories…We were out to whip the public into a frenzy about the environment.” -Jim Sibbison, EPA PR Official
“[Scientists] are making up their facts to fit their conclusions. They’ve already caught them doing this.” – Rand Paul, Kentucky Senator
“[in twenty years {2008} ] the West Side Highway [and thus most of Manhattan] will be under water…” -James Hansen, 1988
“[Inaction will cause]… by the turn of the century [2000], an ecological catastrophe which will witness devastation as complete, as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust.” -Mustafa Tolba, 1982, ex UNEP Director
It seems pretty clear what’s going on. Their never ending fear mongering sounds like a broken record, and is flat out bullshit. Why don’t the people know? The people need to know!
Blind Freddy @ur momisugly 1:43 got it right. Liberty faces the ocean and would get the wave head on if this were a storm surge. When we got our huge snow storm about a month ago here in Boston there were wind gusts to 95 mph and a very large storm surge. Minots Light was covered all the way to the top, 87 feet, with ice from the breaking waves. The difference from the photoshopped picture is that when the waves were this high in that storm, the air was full of water and spray. There was no clear air anywhere as occurs in front of the kind of breaking wave that surfers ride.
Frank K. says:
March 18, 2013 at 1:55 pm
This is yet another example of a new phenomenon in science. With our last U.S. election, we witnessed the rise of the “low information voter”. With modern Climate Science ™, we now are witnessing the rise of the “low information scientist”…
A low information scientist is also known as a Charlatan
Since the paleo storm record taken from sediments deposited in the Atlantic storm basin indicate that when things were cooler there were more frequent and more strong storms, I think we can toss this study in that large yet over flowing bin of AGW hype.
oooops hit enter too fast.
So we have a fake photo to sell a phony report.
Another day in the trenches of the AGW hype industry.
I wish I had been there when they took the photograph, but then I would have been trapped inside Photoshop, like in Tron, another fantasy.
The other problem is that the photographer would have been risking his life on a boat out in NY harbor to take the picture. What do you do if a wave that high hits your boat? Prayer is not a working option.
I remember watching the news coverage of the hurricane(tropical storm at landfall) hitting NY. A reporter stood by the water and over a period of a couple hours the surge rose ~6 feet. Not quite the scale in the photo is it.