From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert
More hurricane surges in the future
By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.
Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.
New model for predicting cyclones
“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.
The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?
Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.
10 times as many ‘Katrinas’
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.
For more information please contact:
Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
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I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:
Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg
…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:
The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.
Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.
I have only been to New York once. Isn’t this wave traveling from the wrong direction if it was a storm surge. Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t the ocean towards the front of the statue? This wave is traveling from the river or landward side of the statue.
Wave posted on May 25, 2011:
http://www.surferdad.co.uk/category/surf-photos/page/5
“A Cornish wedge – Photo by Jacob Cockle”
I wonder if he was paid for this photo, and for someone else to be given credit.
My understanding is that tropical and subtropical cyclonic storms decrease in number and intensity as climate warms and that there is a plethora of data and reserch supporting my view. What sort of tricks (assumptions) did the modeler employ to overcome these data and research?
Also, I recall that Sandy’s wind speed at land fall was less than hurricane force. Katrina’s damage resulted in large part from faulty engineering and construction of the flood control system and its failure at New Orleans and the surrounding Mississippi Delta area.
I hope that Dr Maue, Joe Bastardi and others with similar qualifications and experience will comment on these subjects.
The photo cred is to Gordon Tarpley. You can google him and find he does a lot of photo shop type work.
The original picture is of a wave. there are two surfers in it near the bottom. Quite an exceptional shot and it’s huge. Difficult to pin down the photographer as it appears on hundreds of websites. There is some ambiguity on a number of photography sites that imply the image is by the site host but it can’t be all of them. It’s certainly not taken by the guy given credit so I can only assume that he’s responsible for the photoshop composite.
That’s the sort of work I used to do a lot and I have to say it’s a pretty poor job when you look at it closely. Either very rushed or someone is unfamiliar with the tools. The clone work to remove the surfers from the picture is particularly shoddy.
This is yet another example of a new phenomenon in science. With our last U.S. election, we witnessed the rise of the “low information voter”. With modern Climate Science ™, we now are witnessing the rise of the “low information scientist”…
The caption makes it sound real: “The extreme storm surge” emphasis on THE. That should put them into trouble (hot water, maybe?). Good looking pic, though. Sadbutmadlad pointed out the wave on it’s own (comment at 1:17), with a link – well done to find it, by the way. 🙂 I notice they took the surfers out.
Wish it was in colour. It looks great with the Statue of Liberty in there. 🙂
AnonyMoose has nailed it. original photo of the surf is by Jacob Cockle. The photo of liberty would be impossible to track down. Could be any of a million generic shots out there. I guess it will be one of the first few appearing in a google image search because photoshoppers are lazy. First image they find that suits there needs gets used. Always without permission. I know, I’ve done it a lot and had it done to me. It’s never an issue unless used for commercial purposes.
I expect that the person doing the press release was also quite lazy and just grabbed it from this article.
http://reveal.abchome.com/out-of-the-darkness-and-into-the-light-ways-to-support-after-hurricane-sandy/
that graph is hilarious- i see he has approximately one (1) katrina storm for the decade including 2005. at least he got that right.
The Surfer Dad website above appears to be the originator of the wave image with the bodyboarders in it. I sent him a tweet, hope he responds…
The photo credit of Gordon Tarpley appears to me to be incorrect.
Apparently, we have to credit one, Gordon Tarpley for the pic. According to http://www.eurekalert.org/multimedia/pub/53975.php?from=234915 And he can be found at http://www.gordontarpley.com/
“Superstorm Sandy”…what a crock. Got to hand it to these guys, they’ve successfully made global warming all about extreme weather in the absence of any actual warming. Neat trick.
It could be a screen cap from one of the disaster movies from the last decade or so, maybe 2012?
HAHA! The wave is coming from New Jersey!
AnonyMoose, you got the correct source. I was only doing a quick images.google.com search. I was also rushing a bit to get in quickly. Jacob Cockle is the real photographer and does not deserve to have his work destroyed with abysmal photoshopping.
Anthony, a tip – use http://images.google.com when searching for images or the source of a photo.
The models have yet to rule out a Godzilla vs King Kong rematch on top of the Statue of Liberty so that is something to watch out for.
The photo-shop article said to contact Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
So I did. And told them what I thought of their crap.
The Statue of Liberty is in New Orleans? WHO KNEW!!
Bill Illis says:
March 18, 2013 at 2:09 pm
The models have yet to rule out a Godzilla vs King Kong rematch on top of the Statue of Liberty so that is something to watch out for.
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This is an excellent point Bill. And while no specific monster attack or monster battle can be attributed, it’s the sort of thing we’d expect to see more often in a warming world.
‘The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future.’ they learn one thing , make your BS claims for along way ahead that way you will be dead by the time others get to call them out for the BS they area .
From the article:
“Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows.”
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I thought the major portion of the Katrina flooding damage was lack of maintenance to the barriers and pump failures. As I understood it, the surge was more about where it hit rather than the size of the surge and was coupled with the rain filling an impoundment that was allowed to deteriorate.
Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. Those who can’t remember what happened 8 years ago just make it up as they go.
P.S. Forget Jaws, Waimea, Pipeline. Surf’s up in New York! Just watch out for the big thingie out there in the middle on the way in.
I don’t know about the USA but damn those French storms. Brrrr!
It’s all down to that blasted, toxic trace gas co2.