From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert
More hurricane surges in the future
By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.
Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.
New model for predicting cyclones
“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.
The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?
Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.
10 times as many ‘Katrinas’
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.
For more information please contact:
Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
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I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:
Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg
…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:
The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.
Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.
It’s All Fake !
End of story.
Are U guys seriously debating whether the photo is a fake?
Is this post meant to be a joke?
hey, I’m slow ZootCadillac, but I got there. I had to get to a computer where I could do a google image search. The movie lead was close, but a red herring.
No TBear. We were looking for the source of the fake.
So here we have a 20 meter wave that has cross the expanse of the Atlantic ocean, split the divide between the upper and lower New York Bays and still had enough fetch to overtop the SOL.
One doesn’t have to go far to find the source of the “wave” that was photoshopped embracing the SOL. This is the wave of all purposes and shows up here and there in other photoshopped images. The image is an obvious fake, but that is common and isn’t the story behind the image. The story itself is adequately flawed that the Photo Shop Fake is of no consequence.
BTW, because the EXIF data shows Photo Shop was involved does not mean the photo is faked (in this case it certainly is). Every time I stuff a memory card from my Canon DSLR into my computer Photo Shop opens and sucks it in and licks the doorknob. But I don’t fake my images. However – it is clear from imperfections in the image this is a fake and Photo Shop is the likely tool to have assembled it because it is an excellent tool. It would be a shame to make a verb of the name – they don’t deserve it. Others have provided other links to the unencumbered by statue wave. Like the recyclable multipurpose iceberg with alternately a polar bear or penguin (geographically poles apart for likelihood), it is a complete fiction.
Jep, the Danes seem to be stepping out of the mesmerizing shadow of Svensmark’s clouds and cosmic rays, so be very suspicious of what comes from that quarter. For example this:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682611001866
Let’s do more to rehabilitate for our onetime champion Sir Henrik of DTU from the oscurity and disgrace he has been condemned to by the alarmistas propaganda machine Now is the time to act. The cooling of the planet in the last 20 years is a vindication that he was ahead of his time.
How about some posts by him here on the church noticeboard?
Of course it’s “faked”. Did anyone seriously imagine it was anything other than an overly dramatic illustration or that the creators thought that anyone would not recognise it as such?
Ever notice how soon after the “narrative focus talking points” change a slew of papers come out on those talking points and the prior ‘narrative focus” fades away?
So now we’ve got all this ‘studies’ of “extreme events”. What ever happened to obsessing about the Tropical Hot Spot or Antarctic Heating and Ice Melt (now that Antarctic ice is growing…)
It takes time to do a paper. Somebody has to be coordinating the talking points and the Story Du Jour. Wonder what if feels like to be all ready to roll on last years Panic Points only to be told you have been replaced by “Extreme Weather” and need to go retool…
H.R. asks how to turn off autocorrect in Windows 8:
Bring up the “charms bar” by putting your mouse in the right corner of your monitor then select “Settings”. At the bottom, select “Change PC Settings”, then “General”, and you will find the spelling etc. that you can shut off.
its pretty obvious a photojob.. can we get on with the study now?
Paul B says:
March 18, 2013 at 6:10 pm
“The biggest problem with the picture is that storm surge is not a breaking wave. Not even close. So using this picture, photo shop or not, shows abysmal ignorance of the real world.
B.T.W. Katrina surge was something like 28 feet and it was a gulf coast record.
http://www.wunderground.com/education/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp”
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I did not know that.
My personal point of reference is Hurricane Carla (1961). My grandparents lived in Lolita, TX eleven+ miles or so in from the gulf and the storm surge went a mile or two past their town. Their house was damaged by the surge. I visited in 1962 and was disappointed that there were no rattlesnakes around for a little guy to mess with. Most low-slung critters were killed by the surge.
After emailing the Niel Bohrs Institutet (see my earlier post) I got this reply from ‘Aslak Grinsted’:
“I am currently taking steps to try to have corrections on news items that picked up this art work (which I acknowledge was a mistake). We will ofcourse also correct in onur own webpages.
Best wishes,
Aslak”
The photoshopped image isn’t meant to fool people into thinking it’s real; it is emotional manipulation of the rankest sort, which is so typical of the Alarmists.
It is interesting that Aslak now ackowledges it was a “mistake” (thanks to Snotrocket) to use the image. This is reminiscent of a tactic that lawyers sometimes use, in asking a rhetorical “question” and then immediately withdrawing it. The damage is done. Mission accomplished.
OssQss says:
March 18, 2013 at 6:58 pm
How low of a pressure is needed to raise a hurricane storm surge dome one foot at the center?
982.75mb or 29.02 in Hg
There could never be a wave that big at the Statue of Liberty; there simply isn’t enough fetch.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetch_(geography)
Nice pic of Niagra Falls in 1911
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=11347
Obviously CGI, unless there was a major meteor strike in the N Atlantic we never heard about…
Philip Shehan says:
March 19, 2013 at 1:39 am
Of course it’s “faked”. Did anyone seriously imagine it was anything other than an overly dramatic illustration or that the creators thought that anyone would not recognise it as such?
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Yes. I don’t just seriously imagine … the creators thought that anyone would not recognize it as fake, I’m sure they knew perfectly well that a number of people would accept it as a real. Not sure if you’ve heard of the normal distribution Philip, but to give you a heads up, IQ’s are distributed in a bell curve. There are a lot of fairly dumb people out there.
Nice try though.
“Appears?”…
If that’s not a faked photoshopped picture, I’ll eat a hat.
Totally fake. I know because I shopped it. The wave photo is of “Wiamea shorebreak” I removed a person from the picture and shopped in the statue of liberty from another random photo.
Hmmm … as of 8:12 CDT (local central saving time zone) this image (the main image at the top of this thread, the head post):
. . . . . . http://media.eurekalert.org/multimedia_prod/pub/web/53975_web.jpg
is now coming back “404 not found”:
Gordon Tarpley, do you know about this?
.
For the record the original photo here was taken by my nephew Jacob Cockle who is a very accomplished photographer living in Cornwall, and who also won an award recently from the Guardian newspaper – here’s a link to a surf site that has the photo:
http://www.surferdad.co.uk/category/surf-photos/page/5
Pity it was not explicitly acknowledged …….
As a follow-up, here’s a link to a blog containing Jacob Cockle’s prize-winning picture for the Guardian:
http://wodumedia.com/been-there-travel-photographer-of-the-year-2012/jacob-cockle-overall-winner-and-march-winner-adventure-a-supertanker-had-been-washed-on-to-the-reef-off-sumatra-indonesia-we-noticed-a-backwash-being-created-by-waves-rebounding-as-they/
At least Jacob was acknowledged here through a prize….pity Mr. Tarpley could not do the same.