From the University of Copenhagen here at Eurekalert
More hurricane surges in the future
By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celcius warmer. The results are published in the scientific journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, PNAS.
Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air. The typically form in the Atlantic Ocean and move towards the U.S. East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico. If you want to try to calculate the frequency of tropical cyclones in a future with a warmer global climate, researchers have developed various models. One is based on the regional sea temperatures, while another is based on differences between the regional sea temperatures and the average temperatures in the tropical oceans. There is considerable disagreement among researchers about which is best.
New model for predicting cyclones
“Instead of choosing between the two methods, I have chosen to use temperatures from all around the world and combine them into a single model,” explains climate scientist Aslak Grinsted, Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.
Caption: Extreme storm surges like that caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) become more frequent in globally warming climate new research shows. Credit: Credit: Aslak Grinsted, Niels Bohr Institute
He takes into account the individual statistical models and weights them according to how good they are at explaining past storm surges. In this way, he sees that the model reflects the known physical relationships, for example, how the El Niño phenomenon affects the formation of cyclones. The research was performed in collaboration with colleagues from China and England.
The statistical models are used to predict the number of hurricane surges 100 years into the future. How much worse will it be per degree of global warming? How many ‘Katrinas’ will there be per decade?
Since 1923, there has been a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every 20 years.
10 times as many ‘Katrinas’
“We find that 0.4 degrees Celcius warming of the climate corresponds to a doubling of the frequency of extreme storm surges like the one following Hurricane Katrina. With the global warming we have had during the 20th century, we have already crossed the threshold where more than half of all ‘Katrinas’ are due to global warming,” explains Aslak Grinsted.
“If the temperature rises an additional degree, the frequency will increase by 3-4 times and if the global climate becomes two degrees warmer, there will be about 10 times as many extreme storm surges. This means that there will be a ‘Katrina’ magnitude storm surge every other year,” says Aslak Grinsted and he points out that in addition to there being more extreme storm surges, the sea will also rise due to global warming. As a result, the storm surges will become worse and potentially more destructive.
For more information please contact:
Aslak Grinsted, Assistant Professor, Climate scientist, Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, +45 3138-0716, aslak@gfy.ku.dk, http://www.nbi.ku.dk/english/
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I was a bit suspicious of the Statue of Liberty image they used in the PR, so I located the original on Flickr here:
Found the source URL for it: http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8053/8137852988_408821cd06_o.jpg
…and checked it out at Photoshop Killer. Here is a screencap of the result:
The missing make/model (EXIF info viewer here http://www.exifviewer.org/ ) suggests this is a rendition, rather than an actual photo.
Looking closely at the original, which is only 960×913 pixels, also suggests it may not be from a camera.
Warnet.ws uses this image on 12/30/2010. But it contains two surfers and appears to be without the Statue of Liberty. http://warnet.ws/news/42099
Lots of sites are using it today. March 18, 2013. Here is Phys.org claiming a “Tenfold increase in hurricane frequency this century, researcher predicts”
http://phys.org/news/2013-03-tenfold-hurricane-frequency-century.html
(Sorry about the long link on the earlier post.)
International Business Times ran the same story March 18, 2013. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/447492/20130318/hurricane-katrina-sandy-increase-tenfold-global-warming.htm
(Typo on previous post. That’s 2013, haven’t invented Time travel yet)
[Could have been March 38 …. Mod]
I think a scientist should be able to distinguish between data and the output of a computer model.
The geological record tells us that Category 4 and 5 hurricanes have decreased in frequency over the past 8000 years, at least in the sedimentary record along the shore of the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, that is a very short period of time to develop a trend, but I seem to be dealing with people who think one can discern a trend in the climate over just a few decades, which is preposterous. This is the Earth they are dealing with, which has a climate history at least 4.2 billion years long.
Art Bell and Whitley Strieber wrote “The Coming Global Superstorm” on April 27, 2004.
Quote:
” THE EXTRAORDINARY NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER.
A DIRE WARNING FOR OUR FUTURE.
The climatological nightmare portrayed in the motion picture The Day After Tomorrow isn’t just a fantasy scenario.
The first decade of the 21st century has seen some of the most violent weather on record, from devastating tsunamis to killer hurricanes. But scientific evidence suggests “the big one” is still in the making — will you be ready?
THE COMING GLOBAL SUPERSTORM
WHAT WILL TRIGGER IT?
Global warming is about to cause the North Atlantic current to drop to a more southerly route, sending Arctic air barreling into overheated temperate zones.
WHAT WILL IT BE LIKE?
Sudden, dramatic changes in climate all over the world. . . . The most severe blizzards in history. . . . 100 mile-per-hour winds. . . . Shocking death rates.
WHAT CAN WE DO TO STAVE IT OFF?
Plenty. Talk-show host Art Bell and #1 bestselling author Whitley Strieber, our leading investigators of unexplained phenomena, offer a wealth of viable solutions in this brilliant examination of modern environmental science and weather-related disasters. We can take action today to avoid
THE COMING GLOBAL SUPERSTORM.”
Source: http://books.google.com/books/about/The_Coming_Global_Superstorm.html?id=q6pDFI7EiRsC
======================
This book was made into a Movie and a Book.
“The Day After Tomorrow” – Now a major motion picture from Twentieth Century Fox. A novelization by Whitley Strieber based on the Motion Picture Screenplay. Story by Roland Emmerich.
http://books.google.com/books?id=I3smcyvl7q0C&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false
One disturbing thing that this study fails to consider.
For those of us who live in the Northeast US we are painfully aware that that while the Hurricane Sandy was no longer a Hurricane when it hit New Jersey the storm intensity was augmented by a lingering NE storm that had already battered the coast for days which combined with the hurricane to cause an extraordinary surge in NY harbor and along the Jersey coast. It was this combination and the long sustained duration that caused the extent of the flooding, not the Hurricane alone.
Hurricane Sandy is not an example of increasing hurricane intensity impact on the East coast.
Those who know the power of Northeast storms are well aware that they alone can wreck havoc comparable to a hurricane. See below:
http://njmonthly.com/articles/lifestyle/storm-warning.html
In that NE storm of 50 years ago, Long Beach Island in Ocean County was split into three sections and the impact was greater except that now there are many more expensive structures on that Island today.
@ScarletMacaw says: (in response to H.R.)
March 18, 2013 at 4:11 pm
“The surge from Katrina devastated the Mississippi coast. However, New Orleans got all of the news coverage.”
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Yup. You know your recent history. Mississippi got hit pretty hard.
However, as relates to the article, Russ R. (March 18, 2013 at 3:37 pm, above) pointed out
(Russ) “According to his graph, the 1950′s should be about 0.5 Katrina’s / decade
Carol 1954 cat 3
Edna 1954 cat 3
Hazel 1954 Cat 4
Connie 1955 Cat 3
Audrey 1957 cat 4
Donna 1960 Cat 4 ” (End quote)
Katrina was no more extreme than any of those and probably less extreme than Galveston. Why aren’t their projections in Galvestons? Hurricanes happen and storm surges happen, but since 2005? Not at the rate shown by their model, near as I can make out.
OT but pertinent note to all: My software got automatically updated a few days ago and since then I now have spell check and autocorrect. Oh joy!… NOT. It $crew$ up any formatting I use by leaving off the right arrows and correcting the format commands. DANGIT! I haven’t found where to turn off autocorrect yet, but admittedly, I haven’t searched very hard for the off switch ’cause I can’t find anything in Windoze 8. Will some kind soul plant a clue for me where to find it? Thanks.
Blind Freddy nailed it. Lady Liberty faces SE, toward the open sea. The fake wave comes from the landward side, and that’s only half a mile of open water. If they had to make a fake, they might at least have made a plausible one!
Hmmm, here is what appears to be a picture of the wave. (sans statue of liberty but with two surfers).
I was on this site (http://magicseaweed.com/photoLab/viewPhoto.php?photoId=152831) where someone was trying to sell it A commentor cried bunk, saying this photo was in the national papers in Jan 2008 with a different photographer credited. He provides two links:
“Dat shot was in the national papers in Jan 2008 wiv some article about nutters… my friend emailed it to me in Fuerte t see if I really wanted t come back… and voila here’s the Metro link she sent complete with Jacob Cockle’s name http://www.metro.co.uk/news/83958-monster-sized-waves-smash-britain and the Sun link http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article688812.ece Hope they paid u well!”
Title “Monster sized waves smash Britain” Jan 15, 2008.
“Surfers off Penzance were treated to massive waves but narrowly escaped serious injury in the process.
The sea off the Cornish coast was whipped up into 50ft waves providing a rare opportunity for some winter sport.
College student Jacob Cockle, 22, said: “Penzance never gets waves like this. No-one has ever seen anything like it.
“I was out there for ages watching the surfers. It is so unusual. Other parts of Cornwall are used to big waves – but nothing like this has ever been seen before.”
“This is as much about extreme weather as extreme surfing.”
Photography student Jacob, who is studying at Truro College, was on land as he witnessed two surfers wiped out by the waves on Sunday afternoon.”
Okay. I am going with the 50 ft Cornwall wave photo from January 15, 2008 being the original source for the photoshopped picture (as opposed to the movie.)
The movie is close, but this wave appears to match the wave in the picture precisely.
The Daily Mail has a good series of pictures of what happens next to the two surfers.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-508186/Caught-camera-Incredible-moment-surfers-hit-50ft-wave-Cornwall.html
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This photo may also be photoshopped or faked.
Here is what is suspicious. The photographer (Jacob Cockle) was in the Daily Mail on December 27th, 2008 as the SURFER surviving a 30 foot freak wave. In this case, the photos were taken by his brother Joe. Jacob is a photography student at Tuoro College.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1102030/Pictured-The-dramatic-moment-surfer-cheats-death-trapped-pier-30ft-wave.html
I thought everyone new what happened to the Statue of Liberty after the disaster. I’ll just leave this here:
http://moviemezzanine.com/wp-content/uploads/planet-of-the-apes-statue-of-liberty-blu-ray-disc-screencap-hd-1080p-05.jpg
The biggest problem with the picture is that storm surge is not a breaking wave. Not even close. So using this picture, photo shop or not, shows abysmal ignorance of the real world.
B.T.W. Katrina surge was something like 28 feet and it was a gulf coast record.
http://www.wunderground.com/education/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Just for laughs, Googled Gordon Tarpley (credits on picture) and found a talented illustrator with lots and lots of photo shop work. Makes me go hmmmmmmmm.
Jacob posted the photo on EarthShots.org on Feb 3, 2008 under the title “Riding the Storm”. He says he used a Nikon D200 with a Nikon 50mm f1.8 lens. The photo is 600×500 pixels. Surfers are Lee William and Charlie Thompson
Blind Freddy nailed it.
That is an example of superposition created by backwash. As a bodyboarder, not shopped out from above, that zone is where you get extreme air timing a launch at the superposition. The landing can be a brutal freefall into a flat with no wave to be found though.
Since BF pointed out it was going the wrong way, that would make the bigger wave the actual backwash. The wave in was HUGE! 😀
Maybe shopped a “little” /sarq
What do you think? Does that look like the source picture that they Photoshopped the Statue into?
Weather forecast by the Met Office for that day in England.
Winds of up to 60-70 mph
Flood alert the day before “a month’s rainfall in 24 hours”
20 flood warnings in south-west England
Glasgow got 40 mm rain in a 24 hour period.
Milford Haven in West Wales got 25 mm rain.
very high levels in River Thames.
gale force winds and 16 foot (5m) seas.
A minor point – it’s ‘Celsius’, Anthony, not ‘Celcius’
REPLY: Minor point, it’s a press release, I didn’t write it – Anthony
Well, taking a chance having not read the 100+ comments yet, here are my obs.
Lets, take a peek at what we see.
The indications from the physical positioning, within the picture, of the wave and following waters indicates, even if a real picture, a rogue wave. An inaccurate one at that. The following water is not positioned properly for any large wave event. Just physics. The image used is certainly a very large wave and a scary one at that!
Albeit, coast line depth, shape, storm eye size, play a huge part in storm surge impact for any storm.
The interest surrounding the Sandy incident is focused on the wrong thing.
It was the “Fetch” in the end. Just goes to show you the inertial impact of nearly 1,000 miles of moving water.
Here is a trivia question for you.
How low of a pressure is needed to raise a hurricane storm surge dome one foot at the center?
We really should be grateful for photoshop, without it, these script kiddies would be finger painting.
@Nicholas James
You appear to be getting hung up on what the photo might or might not be. Just read the early comments.
It’s been established that the wave image off of the coast of Cornwall by photographer Jacob Cockle.
The image of the statue of liberty which has been pasted into that is from the wikimedia commons image available from the article on the statue.
The work appears to have been done ( and quite badly in my opinion, but this is my area of expertise as an adobe certified expert) by the person given photo credit in the press release. Which is something that often annoys me ( as a photographer ) as he took neither photograph used for the compilation image produced.
“Tropical cyclones arise over warm ocean surfaces with strong evaporation and warming of the air.”
Of course warm air does nothing without even colder air above so expect stronger storms as this globe cools from the warmer 80’s and 90’s. That is what they really mean (intentionally). It’s going to be colder while we have convinced you it is warmer and we are are going to gouge you royally (courtesy of the Queen of England (bankrupt) and the Club of Rome (bankrupt)).
All you folks claiming the wave is coming from the wrong side clearly don’t understand the magnitude of the warming being claimed. They’re depicting a wave that started in the Pacific, so it is coming from the correct side…
H.R,
I haven’t found where to turn off autocorrect yet, but admittedly, I haven’t searched very hard for the off switch ’cause I can’t find anything in Windoze 8. Will some kind soul plant a clue for me where to find it? Thanks.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Do NOT shut this off!
If you do, they add you to the list of people who are trying to think for themselves.
I am not going to leave any more comment any longer ,(OK I’ll follow) it is useless you guys are always right and this article absolutely takes the cake, the picture left me on the floor, not laughing but in disbelieve.
Oh really…
I find it interesting that The fastest winds in our solar system are on Neptune, which clock in at 2,160KM/hr (Mach 2.03) with Neptune’s temperatures at a balmy -250C…..
I hate Warmageddon Climate Models… I really do….