Lewandowsky and Oreskes Are Co-Authors of a Paper about ENSO, Climate Models and Sea Surface Temperature Trends (Go Figure!)

UPDATE 2: Animation 1 from this post is happily displaying the differences between the “Best” models and observations in the first comment at a well-known alarmist blog. Please see update 2 at the end of this post.
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UPDATE: Please see the update at the end of the post.
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Figure 0The new paper Risbey et al. (2014) will likely be very controversial based solely on the two co-authors identified in the title above (and shown in the photos to the right). As a result, I suspect it will garner a lot of attention…a lot of attention. This post is not about those two controversial authors, though their contributions to the paper are discussed. This post is about the numerous curiosities in the paper. For those new to discussions of global warming, I’ve tried to make this post as non-technical as possible, but these are comments on a scientific paper.

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Posted in ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Stephan Lewandowsky | 381 Comments

A courtesy note ahead of publication for Risbey et al. 2014

People send me stuff. In this case I have received an embargoed paper and press release from Nature from another member of the news media who wanted me to look at it.

The new paper is scheduled to be published in Nature and is embargoed until 10AM PDT Sunday morning, July 20th. That said, Bob Tisdale and I have been examining the paper, which oddly includes co-authors Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky and Dr. Naomi Oreskes and is on the topic of ENSO and “the pause” in global warming. I say oddly because neither Lewandowsky or Oreskes concentrates on physical science, but direct their work towards psychology and science history respectively.

Tisdale found a potentially fatal glaring oversight, which I verified, and as a professional courtesy I have notified two people who are listed as authors on the paper. It has been 24 hours, and I have no response from either. Since it is possible that they have not received these emails, I thought it would be useful to post my emails to them here. Continue reading

Posted in Peer review, Stephan Lewandowsky | 336 Comments

Another carbon tax domino falls – South Korea goes cold on ETS

South Korea announces delay the day after Australia’s carbon tax repeal

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

In a sign that rejection of climate alarm is gathering momentum, South Korea has thrown doubt on its carbon plans. Significantly, the announcement was made the day after Australia abolished the carbon tax. According to the report; Continue reading

Posted in carbon tax, Climate News | 218 Comments

A conversation with Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. on the Kaya Identity

As many readers know, there was quite a hullaballo over the Kaya Identity last week, two posts by Willis Eschenbach here and here created sides seemingly equally split on whether the equation is useful or not.

One of the most strident critics was Dr. Roger Pielke Jr., and in the spirit of keeping an open mind on the issue, I offered him space on WUWT. Here is my email and his response, reprinted with his explicit permission. Continue reading

Posted in Carbon dioxide, Economy-health | Tagged | 396 Comments

Hard times for Aussie Alarmists – Flannery begs in new video

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

Tim Flannery, one time head of the government Climate Commission in Australia, until it was disbanded by the current government, has released a video begging for donations to “keep science in the news”. A year after raising a million dollars, he now needs more money. Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Climate cash | 110 Comments

A flip-flop on Arctic permafrost thaws – actually a net cooling rather than a warming

Since we discussed permafrost pingos today, I thought this story from the University of Alaska Fairbanks was a good sidekick story. It seems there’s a silver lining in melting permafrost after all.

Study: Climate-cooling arctic lakes soak up greenhouse gases

New University of Alaska Fairbanks research indicates that arctic thermokarst lakes stabilize climate change by storing more greenhouse gases than they emit into the atmosphere.

Countering a widely-held view that thawing permafrost accelerates atmospheric warming, a study published this week in the scientific journal Nature suggests arctic thermokarst lakes are ‘net climate coolers’ when observed over longer, millennial, time scales.

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Posted in Arctic | 23 Comments

The stark reality of green tech’s solar and wind contribution to world energy

Summed in in one graph that says it all.

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Posted in Energy, wind power, Green tech, solar power | 149 Comments

New pictures of the hole in Yamal – and Pingo was its name-o

A couple of days ago I posted this story about the odd hole in the ground that appeared in Yamal, which was immediately blamed on ‘global warming’ by some fool who hadn’t looked at it closely:

Anna Kurchatova from the Sub-Arctic Scientific Research Centre, thinks the crater was formed by a mixture of water, salt and gas igniting an underground explosion, a result of global warming.

The most plausible explanation so far is a collapsed “pingo”, and these new pictures and video from the Siberian Times suggest it probably is. The pictures below from Parks Canada show similar structures in the process of collapse. For those that want to blame the collapse on “global warming” you might also note it is summer in Yamal, and melting ice is a regular and expected occurrence. Continue reading

Posted in Curious things | 80 Comments

Dueling “weather is not climate” press releases – see if you can spot the politically biased one

URI researcher: Weather fluctuations cause people to seek information on climate change

Media Contact: Todd McLeish, 401-874-7892

Results vary by political ideology, education levels

KINGSTON, R.I. – July 16, 2014 – A University of Rhode Island researcher analyzed Internet search trends and weather patterns and has concluded that people across the United States seek information about climate change when they experience unusual or severe weather events in their area. But findings differed based on political ideology and education levels. Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | 178 Comments

Australia: No longer a carbon tax nation

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The Gore Effect has struck again. Al Baby recently visited Canberra accompanied by his usual blizzard to try to convince the tiny band of eccentrics that held the balance of power in the Senate to vote to keep the “carbon” tax that has been pointlessly crippling the Australian economy.

He failed. The Senate upheld the vote in the House to bring the doomed CO2 tax to a timely end. The Australian Labor Party, which had unwisely introduced the hated tax for the sake of clinging on to office for a few more months with the support of the now-decimated Greens, is belatedly trying to whip up support from a skeptical nation for a repeal of the repeal.

Bob Carter, whose measured, eloquent and authoritative lectures all over Australia putting the minuscule global warming of the 20th century into the calming perspective of geological time helped to see off the tax, sends me the following image that the ALP are desperately circulating to their fanatical but dismayed supporters. Continue reading

Posted in carbon tax, Climate News | 228 Comments

NASA GISS runs ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ as an outlier again

NASA GISS Version 3 vs. Version 2, using HadCRUT.4 Version differences as a baseline

Guest essay by David Dohbro

Recently the climate blogosphere has uncovered the effects of adjusting past and present United States’ land-temperature data as measured by the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and how that possible affects the temperature records as well as our understanding and knowledge of historic temperatures (References 1-3).

To that extend it is prudent to also look at the effects of temperature adjustments on a global scale. Here the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI) previous Version 2 and the most recent Version 3, which includes the month of June 2014, are compared against each other (4, 5). GISS was updated for various reasons, which I won’t detail here. Continue reading

Posted in Climate data, NASA GISS | 53 Comments

The Law of Unintended Carbon Tax Consequences

Coal generator admits its profits will fall without a carbon tax

Guest essay by Phillip Hutchings

Within minutes of the Australian parliament voting to scrap our carbon tax today, one of our major coal-fired electricity generators issued a profit warning announcement.

(You’ve got to love the ASX. Listed companies here must publicise anything which has a material impact on profits – favourable or negative) Continue reading

Posted in carbon tax | 75 Comments

Headed into ‘Lew-world’ in the U.K. – I could use your help

Yesterday, it was discovered that both John Cook and Michael Mann are headed to the Stephan Lewandowsky’s current place of trough feeding academic residence at the University of Bristol to give talks on Sept. 19th and 23rd. Since the talks are both free and open to the public, a number of people have already registered to attend. Yours truly is one of those people. If you have not already registered, you can do so here at this WUWT story: Calling all UK Skeptics – Free Talk with 97% Bias – plus the ability to ask questions.

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Posted in Announcements | 144 Comments

Mending Fences

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Recently there have been a number of accusations and bad blood involving myself, David Evans, Joanne Nova, Lord Christopher Monckton, and Leif Svalgaard. Now, I cannot speak for any of them, but on my part, my own blood ended up mightily angrified, and I fear I waxed wroth. Continue reading

Posted in Current News | Tagged | 612 Comments

RIP Australia’s Carbon Tax

Carbontax_tombstoneUPDATE: at ~ 11:14AM local time in Australia, it was repealed!

From ABC: Legislation to scrap the carbon tax has passed the Federal Parliament in a major win for the Abbott Government.

After a lengthy debate, the Senate voted to get rid of the price on carbon, with 39 senators voting for and 32 voting against.

This was the Government’s third attempt to scrap the tax since the election – the first two were rejected by the Senate.

The Australian reports: Continue reading

Posted in carbon tax | 105 Comments

Climate Consensus? Nonsense!

by E. Calvin Beisner

July 16, 2014–So, someone privately messaged us saying her friend had posted this article, and she (who messaged us) wondered how we’d respond.

Okay, we give up. We’ll never persuade people like Slate.com’s Phil Plait. Not if this article, and this and this typify his thought processes. His failure to dig a little deeper, as any good journalist should (which suggests how few good journalists there are out there!), indicates a mind closed to evidence.

But for those of you who aren’t closed to evidence, how do we respond? Continue reading

Posted in 97% consensus | 84 Comments

Macro, Meso, and Micro Climates: The Importance of Trees in Urban Climates

Guest essay by Dr Tim Ball

I think that I shall never see a poem lovely as a tree, -Joyce Kilmer

Is dishwater dull? Naturalists with microscopes have told me that it teems with quiet life. – G. K. Chesterton.

Climate science is essentially limited to macroclimate, that is global, or at most hemispheric or continental. It’s primarily due to the influence of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – they can’t do small, or even medium. They rely on models and, as they acknowledge, spatial resolution, “…is generally not high enough to resolve tropical cyclones, and especially to simulate their intensity. Figure 1 shows a traditional division of climatology studies. IPCC models can’t even encompass Mesoscale, because a single rectangle in their grid can include Plain, Mountains and Basins.

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Posted in UHI | 36 Comments

Put a cork in it! Claim: wine corks deteriorating due to ‘climate change’

From Science News: Wine corks may owe quality to gene activity

Discovery that distinguishes superior stoppers could help reverse global downturn

Even the most superb wine won’t last without its cork, but the quality of this renewable oaken resource has nose-dived in recent years. A new genetic study of trees that produce high- and low-quality cork divulges some clues behind this decline, hinting at a possible link to climate change.
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Posted in Climate_change | 72 Comments

Calling all UK Skeptics – Free Talk with 97% Bias – plus the ability to ask questions

UPDATE: It’s a double feature, Mann will be there too, see below

From the University of Bristol: Dogma vs. consensus: Letting the evidence speak on climate change

19 September 2014, 6 pm Victoria Rooms, Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1SA

In this Cabot Institute public lecture, we are pleased to present John Cook, Global Change Institute, University of Queensland and owner of the Skeptical Science blog, in what promises to be a fascinating talk.

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Posted in 97% consensus, Announcements | 153 Comments

Another missing piece of the climate model puzzle – dust

A satellite image from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument onboard the Terra satellite captured this dust storm moving over Red Sea on July 8, 2013.  Credit: MODIS Rapid Response Team.

A satellite image captured this dust storm moving over Red Sea on July 8, 2013. Photo: MODIS Rapid Response Team.

From Scripps: Global climate models fail to simulate key dust characteristics

African dust plays a key role in cloud formation, hurricanes and other global climate phenomena but models can’t characterize it well.

Climate models that simulate the airborne African dust that influences Atlantic Ocean hurricanes are not up to the task of accurately representing the characteristics of that dust.

Climate models that simulate the airborne African dust that influences Atlantic Ocean hurricanes are not up to the task of accurately representing the characteristics of that dust.

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Posted in Climate News | 34 Comments

Latest NOAA mean sea level trend data through 2013 confirms lack of sea level rise acceleration

UN IPCC AR5 WGI claims of increasing rates of sea level rise from 1971 to 2010 are unsupported

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

NOAA has released new and updated mean sea level trend data for it’s Global Network Stations tide gauge locations which are inclusive of measurement data through 2013 (1),(2).

The data include long time period duration (in excess of 30 years) tide gauge station records covering the Hawaiian Islands, Alaska and the Pacific, Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastline regions of the U.S. as well as many other global wide coastal locations. This latest NOAA data shows unchanging linear trends in the rate of sea level rise worldwide with many of these records including 100 year and longer measurement duration periods.

The UN IPCC AR5 WG1 report claims that: Continue reading

Posted in Sea level | 68 Comments

How Can You Tell?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

All day long we’ve been driving in Montana, which is cowboy country and mining country. To assist folks in distinguishing these from say the Midwest kind of country which also may have horses and cows, here are some distinguishing marks and features of cowboy country. You know you’re in cowboy country when you see: Continue reading

Posted in Willis Autobiography | Tagged , | 84 Comments

Climate Craziness of the Week: Crater in Yamal caused by ‘global warming’

Yamal_craterI kid you not. The level of stupid here is unprecedented. Forget the UFO theories, or the fact that it is Yamal, which started Climategate through the distortion of tree ring data and the witholding of FOI requests on the issue, or forget that Yamal is roughly translated as ‘End of The World’, no, forget all those. This statement from a supposed scientist takes climate craziness to a whole new level. Video follows. Continue reading

Posted in Climate Craziness of the Week | 159 Comments

Breaking news on the ISEE-3 mission: it may not be lost – it’s those “O” rings again

300px-ISEE3-ICE[1]A few days ago, my heart sank when I heard this news: Space Probe Might Lack Nitrogen to Push It Home It seemed a deal-killer if the nitrogen tanks were empty. Now, one of the team leaders has given me an inside track into the issue, and the mission may not be lost, thanks to the collective consciousness of the Internet.

We all know of the importance of a simple thing like an “O” ring, which Dr. Richard Feynman showed was the singular cause of the Challenger disaster, due to cold.

Now, it is “O” rings again, due to high temperature. Workarounds are being engineering as I write this.

Dennis Wingo, team member for the ISEE-3 reboot mission writes on his blog:

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Posted in Citizen science, Space, Technology | 25 Comments

Michael Mann’s ‘damages’ over FOIA emails? A piddling $250

From ‘amazing tales of the vexatious’. Climate Change Dispatch writes:

In a clear slap in the face, the Virginia Supreme Court awarded Michael E. Mann and the University of Virginia a piddling $250 in damages in the email FOIA case. Showing the triviality of the manner, the court’s order (shown here) didn’t even specify the rationale for the derisory amount. Continue reading

Posted in FOI, Michael E. Mann, Opinion | 84 Comments

The Science Publishing Complex – 1% publish 41% of all papers

Erik Stokstad in Science (AAAS) writes: Publishing is one of the most ballyhooed metrics of scientific careers, and every researcher hates to have a gap in that part of his or her CV. Here’s some consolation: A new study finds that very few scientists—fewer than 1%—manage to publish a paper every year.

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Posted in Peer review, Science | 36 Comments

UK Government Study: Greens use more electricity than skeptics

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

A UK government study has concluded that people concerned about global warming, on average, use more electricity than climate skeptics.

Some highlights from the study follow.

On the “benefits” of switching off appliances; Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Energy, Green tech | 90 Comments

sWINDle

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

On our way out of Idaho today I saw a great billboard about wind power. It gave me hope for the future.

Here’s what the billboard said: Continue reading

Posted in Willis Autobiography | Tagged | 68 Comments

What an Engineer Finds Extraordinary about Climate

climate_engineerGuest essay by Ronald D Voisin

For quite some time we have known that atmospheric CO2 lags Earthly temperature in both directions. This fact has been repeatedly and internationally validated at both ends of the Earth. It is, frankly and simply, a known fact. But here is the rub. Very few ever speak to why this would be so obviously true. Is it not painfully obvious? How big does the picture have to be and how many brilliant colors does it need to be painted with before it becomes widely recognized?

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Posted in Carbon dioxide | 250 Comments

Quote of the Week – NOAA: ‘However, we think it’s likely that the atmosphere will get on board soon’

qotw_croppedAs a follow up to Bob Tisdale’s excellent post today, I just had to post this one from NOAA where they are so confident that the El Niño will happen, they expect the atmosphere to “get on board” with their predictions. The hubris is strong with this one…

EN…SO

By Emily Becker of NOAA CPC

Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center haven’t declared El Niño conditions, even though the Niño3.4 index is currently around 0.5°C above normal, and has been for the past two months. What’s the hold up? In short, we’re waiting for the atmosphere to respond to the warmer sea-surface temperatures, and give us the “SO” part of ENSO.

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Posted in ENSO | 85 Comments

The 2014/15 El Niño – Part 13 – More Mixed Signals

A few interesting things have happened since the July Update last week. On the ocean side, weekly sea surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region have dropped (just) below the threshold of El Niño conditions (using the standard NOAA base years of 1971-2000 for their Reynolds OI.v2 data). On the atmospheric side, the 30-day running average of the BOM Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has finally neared the threshold of El Niño conditions. But the SOI does not reflect what’s going on along the equator. And there is evidence that the trade winds are slightly stronger than normal across most of the equatorial Pacific.

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Posted in El Nino Basics, ENSO | 33 Comments

The law of unintended consequences in action: Imagine replacing all CO2 emissions with H2O emissions

electrolysis catalyst

Image: Tewodros Asefa A new technology based on carbon nanotubes promises commercially viable hydrogen production from water.

This story, while technically correct, made me chuckle, especially in light of a tweet today by Mashable warmist Andrew Freidman, who was complaining about heat and humidity in NYC. Just think about what it would be like if all those taxis and private vehicles were emitting H2O (as water vapor). – more below.

Rutgers Chemists Develop Technology to Produce Clean-Burning Hydrogen Fuel

New catalyst based on carbon nanotubes may rival cost-prohibitive platinum for reactions that split water into hydrogen and oxygen

NEW BRUNSWICK – Rutgers researchers have developed a technology that could overcome a major cost barrier to make clean-burning hydrogen fuel – a fuel that could replace expensive and environmentally harmful fossil fuels. Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Global warming, Green tech | 119 Comments

Barking Mad – A rave, prompted by facing insane heating costs

Guest essay by Caleb Shaw

clip_image002

Nigel Hawthorne playing King George the Third. Photo credit: Rex Features

It is a painful thing to confront someone whom one is accustomed to respecting, and to tell that person they are barking mad. Usually one avoids it, or dismisses the other’s strange behavior as “a difference of opinion,” and speaks platitudes about “the importance of diversity,” however when a person is going, “Arf! Arf!” right in your face, there is no way around it. This includes governments, when they become barking mad.

Continue reading

Posted in Energy, Government idiocy, Opinion | 125 Comments

Dr. Roy Spencer’s Keynote Speech at #ICCC9

Dr. Spencer asks the question: What do we really know about Global Warming?

This is from Wednesday morning July 9th.

This is well worth watching, and I get a mention. Some of the graphs he presents are not only hilarious for their satire of the issue, but are valuable in demonstrating that correlation is not causation. Continue reading

Posted in Climate News | 70 Comments

Fog May Be Icy

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

That was what the sign on the highway outside of Reno said, at any rate. I kept waiting for the corresponding sign saying

Ice May Be Foggy

But I haven’t seen it yet. We escaped from the Nugget Hotel, which was a good thing. They have a “Gilleys” bar there, complete with a Bikini Bullriding Competition. I tried to talk the gorgeous ex-fiancee into entering … she said I didn’t look all that good in a bikini even with a following wind, and I couldn’t argue on that score, so we rolled out to visit our friends in Imlay, Nevada.

The first curious sight was a house a few miles outside Reno. It was a white house, with a lovely green front lawn. It had a small tree in the yard, and a guitarscar in the garage, and a white picket fence around the whole thing.

And on all sides of that … nothing but high desert. Sagebrush and scrub and sand. It looked like the tornado from the Wizard of Oz had picked the house up from Illinois with every homey appurtenance, lawn, picket fence and all, and set it down in raw desert in Nevada …

(We’re in Idaho Falls now, staying by the Snake River.  I just heard the train whistle and I can feel the rumble … I do love that sound.) Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, Willis Autobiography | Tagged , , , | 53 Comments