Category Archives: ENSO

El Niño or La Nada for the 2014/15 ENSO Season

El Niño and La Niña events are the dominant modes of natural climate variability on Earth, which is why the state of the tropical Pacific is continuously monitored. El Niños and La Niñas impact weather patterns globally. As a number … Continue reading

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Posted in ENSO | 241 Comments

Open Letter to Kevin Trenberth – NCAR

Date: January 31, 2014 Subject: Your Blog Post at SkepticalScience and an Invitation from WattsUpWithThat From: Bob Tisdale To: Kevin Trenberth – NCAR Dear Kevin: I note that you were co-author of the SkepticalScience blog post Warming oceans consistent with … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, Trenberth's missing heats | 152 Comments

El Niño sea monitoring system may fail – half dead already

From the “send money or the instrumentation gets it” department comes news that the TAO array may already be toast due to budget constraints. One wonders if money sucked into climate programs might be a factor. From Nature News:  Nearly … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, TAO/TRITON Buoys, Technology, Weather_stations | 66 Comments

Our Climate Models Are Aglow with Whirling, Transient Nodes of Thought Careening through a Cosmic Vapor of Invention

UPDATE: Even Trenberth is critical of the Cai et al. (2013) study. See the update at the end. # # # My apologies to the writers of Mel Brooks’ Blazing Saddles for the title of the post. Hedley Lamarr: My … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Climate FAIL, ENSO | 102 Comments

Comments on the Nature Article “Climate Change: The Case of the Missing Heat”

UPDATE: I finished writing this post and published it at my blog Climate Observations about the same time that Don Easterbrook’s post Cause of ‘the pause’ in global warming was published at WattsUpWithThat. This post includes an overview of the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO | 31 Comments

New study claims low solar activity caused “the pause” in global temperature – but AGW will return!

This is on a tip from Dr. Leif Svalgaard, WUWT’s resident solar expert. It was just published in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, and is open access. I found this study’s conclusion a bit amusing, because there are numerous … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Peer review, Science, Solar | Tagged , , | 180 Comments

RealClimate Co-Founder Exposes His Inability to Grasp Complex Subjects

And most regulars will recall William Connolley. Connolley’s likely best known for his hijinks as a former editor at Wikipedia. (See the WattsUpWithThat posts here, here, here, here, here, here here….and here.) But Connolley is also a former climate modeler … Continue reading

Posted in Climate ugliness, ENSO, Ridiculae, Wiki Wars | 235 Comments

An Illustrated Introduction to the Basic Processes that Drive El Niño and La Niña Events

El Niños and La Niñas are parts of naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled processes—amazing processes—that produce warm water and redistribute it from the tropical Pacific. When I was first able to fathom the processes, when they finally clicked for me, I was … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 135 Comments

More on Trenberth and Fasullo (2013) “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?”

We discussed the Trenberth and Fasullo (2013) paper “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?” in the recent post Trenberth and Fasullo Try to Keep the Fantasy Alive. Since then, Dana Nuccitelli published a post at TheGuardian—cross posted at SkepticalScience—extolling the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, Trenberth's missing heats | 60 Comments

Trenberth and Fasullo Try to Keep the Fantasy Alive

Trenberth and Fasullo published a paper “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?” last week in the new online journal Earth’s Future. Judith Curry briefly introduced the paper in her December 7, 2013 post Week in review (Thanks, Judith.) From the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, PDO, Trenberth's missing heats | 115 Comments

Claim: El Nino events get more extreme as globe warms

From the University of New South Wales  and the “chicken or the egg” department comes this claim that El Niño events will increase in intensity. Meanwhile the milquetoast La Nada of the present continues. New method shows how historical ENSO … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Global warming | Tagged , , | 71 Comments

ENSO Basics: Westerly Wind Bursts Initiate an El Niño

This may seem like an unusual time to have this discussion. We’re presently in ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-neutral conditions, meaning the tropical Pacific isn’t experiencing an El Niño or a La Niña. And based on the ENSO-forecasting models, NOAA says … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 63 Comments

Will Global Warming Increase the Intensity of El Niño?

FIRST CLIMATE MODELS HAVE TO BE ABLE TO SIMULATE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA PROCESSES—CAPABILITIES THEY CONTINUE TO LACK AFTER DECADES OF MODELING EFFORTS (PERSONALLY, I DON’T THINK THE MODELERS ARE REALLY TRYING) BBCNews published an article yesterday by Matt … Continue reading

Posted in Climate FAIL, ENSO, Modeling | 102 Comments

Models Fail: Land versus Sea Surface Warming Rates

In Climate Models Fail, using a number of different datasets, I illustrated how the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report could not simulate climate variables such as surface temperatures (land surface air, sea surface and … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, Modeling | 69 Comments

Another paper blames ENSO for global warming pause, calling it ‘… a major control knob governing Earth’s temperature.’

UPDATE: Chris de Freitas responds to comments with an addendum below – Anthony Readers may recall the recent paper that blamed “the pause” in global temperature on ENSO changes in the Pacific Ocean. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , | 211 Comments

‘Mind blowing paper’ blames ENSO for Global Warming Hiatus

Note: Dr. Judith Curry also has an essay on this important paper. She writes: My mind has been blown by a new paper just published in Nature. Just when I least expected it, after a busy day when I took … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , | 395 Comments

Part 1 – Comments on the UKMO Report about “The Recent Pause in Global Warming”

INTRODUCTION I’ve received a number of emails and requests to comment on the recently released 3-part report from the UK Met Office titled “The Recent Pause in Global Warming”. See the UKMO webpage here. This is part 1, corresponding to … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Climate FAIL, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 61 Comments

No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets

Global precipitation is a crucial part of our understanding of the global Water Cycle. The climate science community can’t hope predict how precipitation will change in the future without knowing how precipitation has varied in the past. The oceans are … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Rainfall, Weather | 30 Comments

Models Fail: Global Land Precipitation & Global Ocean Precipitation

We used NOAA’s CAMS-OPI satellite-era precipitation data in the post Model-Data Precipitation Comparison: CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Model Simulations versus Satellite-Era Observations. Unfortunately, we weren’t able to isolate precipitation data for land and oceans with that dataset at the KNMI Climate … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 42 Comments

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of Tropical Storm Chantal’s Forecasted Storm Track

INITIAL NOTE: This post has nothing to do with the Kerry Emanuel’s new climate model-based paper, Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century, but feel free to comment about it. The USA Today article … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 38 Comments

El Niño Research in the News

Is There an Improved Method of El Niño Forecasting? –And– There’s No Consensus About ENSO in Paleo-Studies AN IMPROVEMENT IN EL NIÑO FORECASTING? A recently published paper by Ludescher et al (2013) Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection (paywalled) … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 47 Comments

Schellnhuber thinks he can forecast El Niño a year in advance

From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where breakthroughs happen even before they have a proven track record. It appears he was able to predict one event last year in 2012 from the method run in 2011, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Claim: ‘Recent El Niño behavior is largely beyond natural variability’

From the University of Hawaii at Manoa: El Nino unusually active in the late 20th century Spawning droughts, floods, and other weather disturbances world-wide, the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts the daily life of millions of people. During … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Paleoclimatology | Tagged , , , , , , | 105 Comments

A Very Ridiculous Comment by the Author of a Recent SkepticalScience Post

I returned to a recent post at SkepticalScience to examine what the author had to say about two papers: Meehl et al (2011) and Meehl et al (2013). [We discussed Meehl et al (2013) here.] I am now convinced SkepticalScience … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, ENSO | 81 Comments

Meehl et al (2013) Are Also Looking for Trenberth’s Missing Heat

OVERVIEW Rob Painting of SkepticalScience recently published the post A Looming Climate Shift: Will Ocean Heat Come Back to Haunt Us? Many of you will find his post entertaining. But this post is not about the SkepticalScience post. This post … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling, Sea Surface Temperature, Trenberth's missing heats | 44 Comments

On Muller et al (2013) “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”

I received an email yesterday morning advising me that Muller et al (2013) had been published. (Thanks, Marc.) The title of the paper is “Decadal variations in the global atmospheric land temperatures”. The abstract is here and a preprint version … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, ENSO, PDO | 85 Comments

To NCDC: We Haven’t Seen an El Nino since 2009/10, What Do You Expect?

This desperate sounding tweet came in a few minutes ago and will be sure to get the peccatogenesists all stirred up with laughable claims of “poisoned weather” etc. June 11 U.S. Drought Monitor Update: moderate to exceptional #drought covers 44.1% of … Continue reading

Posted in Drought, ENSO | Tagged , , , , , , , | 46 Comments

Open Letter to the Royal Meteorological Society Regarding Dr. Trenberth’s Article “Has Global Warming Stalled?”

Update 2: A number of typos were found in this post.  I’ve corrected them here and in the pdf version. A revised pdf copy is available here.  I’ve removed the old version from WordPress. #### Note:  A typo was found and … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Trenberth's missing heats | 74 Comments

New El Niño causal pattern discovered

From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST: Climate researchers discover new rhythm for El Niño El Niño wreaks havoc across the globe, shifting weather patterns that spawn droughts in some regions and floods in others. The impacts of this tropical … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , , , | 169 Comments

Multidecadal Variations and Sea Surface Temperature Reconstructions

UPDATE: I’ve added a link at the end of the post for those interested in a copy of it in .pdf format. ########### OVERVIEW This is a somewhat lengthy blog post. There’s lots of information for newcomers, and there are … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, PDO, Sea Surface Temperature | 29 Comments

SkepticalScience Still Misunderstands or Misrepresents the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The author of the recent SkepticalScience post Distinguishing Between Short-Term Variability and Long-Term Trends, Dana Nuccitelli, still misunderstands or misrepresents El Niño and La Niña processes. Either way, he’s missed something. The instrument temperature record indicates that La Niñas and … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Lower Troposphere Temperature, Ocean Heat Content, Sea Surface Temperature, Temperature | 59 Comments

Updates to and ENSO Observations from the WUWT Ocean Reference Page

Image Credit: Monterey Marine Meteorology Division – HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” In making several updates to the WUWT Ocean Reference Page I observed something in the Sea Surface Temperature animation above, that I’ve … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Oceans, Reference Pages, Salinity, Sea level, Sea Surface Temperature | Tagged , , , , , | 59 Comments

Dana Nuccitelli Misleads and Misinforms in His First Blog Post at The Guardian

The Guardian has a new blog called Climate Consensus – The 97%. The two primary authors are to be Dana Nuccitelli, a regular contributor at SkepticalScience, and John Abraham, Associate Professor at the University of St. Thomas. Dana Nuccitelli’s first … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, ENSO, Global warming, Ocean Heat Content, Sea Surface Temperature | 136 Comments

Hawaiians ‘won’t know what rainfall is’

Apologies in advance for the Vinerism. From the University of Hawaii ‑ SOEST, something that doesn’t seem to be a problem based on the past data I’ve found: Source: USGS It seems clear when you look at the peaks of … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling, Rainfall, Weather | Tagged | 83 Comments

Another “escalator“

Guest post by Jan Zeman Some CAGW proponents argument against the recent stall in the global warming trends with this graph called “escalator”. Source: http://www.skepticalscience.com But one of my favorite “escalators” is this one: Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org The beginnings and the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Solar | 104 Comments