Category Archives: ENSO

Our Climate Models Are Aglow with Whirling, Transient Nodes of Thought Careening through a Cosmic Vapor of Invention

UPDATE: Even Trenberth is critical of the Cai et al. (2013) study. See the update at the end. # # # My apologies to the writers of Mel Brooks’ Blazing Saddles for the title of the post. Hedley Lamarr: My … Continue reading

About these ads
Posted in Alarmism, Climate FAIL, ENSO | 102 Comments

Comments on the Nature Article “Climate Change: The Case of the Missing Heat”

UPDATE: I finished writing this post and published it at my blog Climate Observations about the same time that Don Easterbrook’s post Cause of ‘the pause’ in global warming was published at WattsUpWithThat. This post includes an overview of the … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, PDO | 31 Comments

New study claims low solar activity caused “the pause” in global temperature – but AGW will return!

This is on a tip from Dr. Leif Svalgaard, WUWT’s resident solar expert. It was just published in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, and is open access. I found this study’s conclusion a bit amusing, because there are numerous … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, Peer review, Science, Solar | Tagged , , | 180 Comments

RealClimate Co-Founder Exposes His Inability to Grasp Complex Subjects

And most regulars will recall William Connolley. Connolley’s likely best known for his hijinks as a former editor at Wikipedia. (See the WattsUpWithThat posts here, here, here, here, here, here here….and here.) But Connolley is also a former climate modeler … Continue reading

Posted in Climate ugliness, ENSO, Ridiculae, Wiki Wars | 235 Comments

An Illustrated Introduction to the Basic Processes that Drive El Niño and La Niña Events

El Niños and La Niñas are parts of naturally occurring, sunlight-fueled processes—amazing processes—that produce warm water and redistribute it from the tropical Pacific. When I was first able to fathom the processes, when they finally clicked for me, I was … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 135 Comments

More on Trenberth and Fasullo (2013) “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?”

We discussed the Trenberth and Fasullo (2013) paper “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?” in the recent post Trenberth and Fasullo Try to Keep the Fantasy Alive. Since then, Dana Nuccitelli published a post at TheGuardian—cross posted at SkepticalScience—extolling the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, Trenberth's missing heats | 60 Comments

Trenberth and Fasullo Try to Keep the Fantasy Alive

Trenberth and Fasullo published a paper “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?” last week in the new online journal Earth’s Future. Judith Curry briefly introduced the paper in her December 7, 2013 post Week in review (Thanks, Judith.) From the … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming, Hiatus in Global Warming, Ocean Heat Content, PDO, Trenberth's missing heats | 115 Comments

Claim: El Nino events get more extreme as globe warms

From the University of New South Wales  and the “chicken or the egg” department comes this claim that El Niño events will increase in intensity. Meanwhile the milquetoast La Nada of the present continues. New method shows how historical ENSO … Continue reading

Posted in Climate News, ENSO, Global warming | Tagged , , | 71 Comments

ENSO Basics: Westerly Wind Bursts Initiate an El Niño

This may seem like an unusual time to have this discussion. We’re presently in ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-neutral conditions, meaning the tropical Pacific isn’t experiencing an El Niño or a La Niña. And based on the ENSO-forecasting models, NOAA says … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 63 Comments

Will Global Warming Increase the Intensity of El Niño?


Posted in Climate FAIL, ENSO, Modeling | 102 Comments

Models Fail: Land versus Sea Surface Warming Rates

In Climate Models Fail, using a number of different datasets, I illustrated how the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5th Assessment Report could not simulate climate variables such as surface temperatures (land surface air, sea surface and … Continue reading

Posted in AMO, ENSO, Modeling | 69 Comments

Another paper blames ENSO for global warming pause, calling it ‘… a major control knob governing Earth’s temperature.’

UPDATE: Chris de Freitas responds to comments with an addendum below – Anthony Readers may recall the recent paper that blamed “the pause” in global temperature on ENSO changes in the Pacific Ocean. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Global warming | Tagged , , , , , | 211 Comments

‘Mind blowing paper’ blames ENSO for Global Warming Hiatus

Note: Dr. Judith Curry also has an essay on this important paper. She writes: My mind has been blown by a new paper just published in Nature. Just when I least expected it, after a busy day when I took … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | Tagged , , , | 395 Comments

Part 1 – Comments on the UKMO Report about “The Recent Pause in Global Warming”

INTRODUCTION I’ve received a number of emails and requests to comment on the recently released 3-part report from the UK Met Office titled “The Recent Pause in Global Warming”. See the UKMO webpage here. This is part 1, corresponding to … Continue reading

Posted in Alarmism, Climate FAIL, ENSO, Hiatus in Global Warming, UKMO HADCRUT4 | 61 Comments

No Consensus among Three Global Precipitation Datasets

Global precipitation is a crucial part of our understanding of the global Water Cycle. The climate science community can’t hope predict how precipitation will change in the future without knowing how precipitation has varied in the past. The oceans are … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Rainfall, Weather | 30 Comments

Models Fail: Global Land Precipitation & Global Ocean Precipitation

We used NOAA’s CAMS-OPI satellite-era precipitation data in the post Model-Data Precipitation Comparison: CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) Model Simulations versus Satellite-Era Observations. Unfortunately, we weren’t able to isolate precipitation data for land and oceans with that dataset at the KNMI Climate … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Modeling | 42 Comments

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies of Tropical Storm Chantal’s Forecasted Storm Track

INITIAL NOTE: This post has nothing to do with the Kerry Emanuel’s new climate model-based paper, Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century, but feel free to comment about it. The USA Today article … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Sea Surface Temperature | 38 Comments

El Niño Research in the News

Is There an Improved Method of El Niño Forecasting? –And– There’s No Consensus About ENSO in Paleo-Studies AN IMPROVEMENT IN EL NIÑO FORECASTING? A recently published paper by Ludescher et al (2013) Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection (paywalled) … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO | 47 Comments

Schellnhuber thinks he can forecast El Niño a year in advance

From the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) where breakthroughs happen even before they have a proven track record. It appears he was able to predict one event last year in 2012 from the method run in 2011, but … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Forecasting | Tagged , , , , , , , | 40 Comments

Claim: ‘Recent El Niño behavior is largely beyond natural variability’

From the University of Hawaii at Manoa: El Nino unusually active in the late 20th century Spawning droughts, floods, and other weather disturbances world-wide, the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts the daily life of millions of people. During … Continue reading

Posted in ENSO, Paleoclimatology | Tagged , , , , , , | 105 Comments