That headline is attributed to physicist Niels Bohr, but a later more popular version is attributed to Yogi Berra. But. like predicting the future, it seems that the true provenence…
Category: Forecasting
Latest projection shows Hurricane Arthur battering the Outer Banks on the Fourth of July
WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi writes in with an update. Arthur is predicted to reach hurricane strength and have strong winds. The Fourth of July for the outer banks looks dire. Storm…
Bastardi: 'potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend'
UPDATE: Latest GFDL model output suggests Bastardi could be right, see below. UPDATE2: New information from Bastardi here shows 4th of July nightmare is shaping up to be true. The…
The Weather Forecast That Saved D-Day
The most important weather forecast in history In memory of my father Hans who, in 1944, took part in the liberation of Europe with the Royal Engineers in the Italian…
NOAA predicts near-normal or below-normal 2014 Atlantic hurricane season
From NOAA: El Niño expected to develop and suppress the number and intensity of tropical cyclones In its 2014 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is…
Your chance to predict future El Niño headlines
Bob Tisdale recently took some of the early wailers to task over the expected El Niño this year, saying: I knew it wouldn’t take long. The 2014/15 El Niño has…
Claim: Climate Models Underestimate Costs to Future Generations
One wonders how they can make claims like that when we see models vs reality like this: Future generations will have to pay more for today’s carbon emissions than what…
NOAA issues spring outlook, predicts flooding in the usual places, more drought for Cali and the Southwest
NOAA predicts moderate flood potential in Midwest, elevated risk of ice jams; California and Southwest stuck with drought March 20, 2014 According to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released today, rivers in…
JLI Final Forecasts for 2014
Guest Post By Walter Dnes The NOAA(NCDC) January data set update was delayed. It came in during the afternoon/evening of March 6th. With all the January data being in, now…
Government Weather and Climate Forecasts Are Failures
Guest essay by Dr. Tim Ball In general, we look for a new law by the following process: First we guess it; then we compute the consequences of the guess…
JLI First Forecasts
Image Credit: Walter Dnes By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts In a recent post I introduced The “January Leading Indicator“. At that time, there were some concerns…
On Don Easterbrook’s Updated Projection
Don Easterbrook has updated his projection graph. Unfortunately, he did not update the graph that I complained about a few weeks ago, shown on the left in Figure 1. In…
The January Leading Indicator
By Walter Dnes – Edited by Just The Facts Investopedia defines “Leading Indicator” thusly… A measurable economic factor that changes before the economy starts to follow a particular pattern or…
BBC Meteorologist: Met Office Global Forecasts Too Warm In 13 Of Last 14 Years
Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, says: The global temperature in 2013 was 0.486C above the 1961-1990 average based on the HADCRUT measure, figures released by the Met Office show. So far this…
Senior meteorologist on extended USA cold blast to last past Groundhog day: 'WOW F..ing WOW'
Top post for a day or two, new posts will appear below this one. Normally quiet and reserved WeatherBell senior forecaster Joe D’Aleo (co-founder of the Weather Channel with John…
2013 Was Not A Good Year For Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Climate Warming Change Disruption Weirding Ocean Acidification Extreme Weather, etc.
Image Credit: European Space Agency – CryoSat By WUWT regular “Just The Facts” For anyone keeping track, 2013 has not been a good year for those who propagate the Catastrophic…
WUWT and WeatherBell help KUSI-TV with a weather forecasting request from ice-trapped ship in Antarctica Akademik Shokalskiy
Today, while shopping at lunchtime for some last minute year end supplies, I got one of the strangest cell-phone calls ever. It was from my friend John Coleman, the founder…
On the Futility of Long-Range Numerical Climate Prediction
Note: two events at AGU13 this morning dovetail in with this essay. The first, a slide from Dr. Judith Lean which says: “There are no operational forecasts of global climate…
One Model, One Vote
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The IPCC, that charming bunch of United Nations intergovernmental bureaucrats masquerading as a scientific organization, views the world of climate models as a democracy. It…
Ooops – Met Office decadal model forecast for 2004-2014 falls flat
‘The Pause’ claims another victim. Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2004/trend:2004 Paul Matthews writes: The skillful predictions of climate science Smith et al (2007): 0.3°C in 10 years In 2007, a team of climate scientists from…
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